Official numbers...cases...deaths...they do not match reality.

Hospitalizations and ICU cases do match reality, even if both are lagging behind cases.


In my last update, I talked about excess deaths.

Thankfully, we live in a world where technology shortens the time between gathering and releasing information. We no longer have to wait years before we know what happened.


Excess deaths, during a crisis, are the real picture. When you have a significantly higher number of deaths, during a crisis, the only logical explanation is that those excess deaths were caused by what or who is responsible for the crisis.


The current crisis is caused by a virus.


When we are facing excess deaths that are 10 times higher then the official number of deaths, it is obvious that we are FAR from detecting enough cases, we are FAR from detecting the contacts of those cases, so, we are FAR from containing this pandemic.


Actually, we are very close to completely lose whatever control we still have left over the spread of the virus.


The real numbers are staggering, and because any number I would post here is unbelievable for pretty much anyone, except few who really understand what is happening, I will paint a picture of how the official numbers will look in about 17-18 days from today, in Europe and the U.S.


We can expect Europe to double the number of official cases, and get to around to 300k daily cases, by November 4th.

We can expect the U.S. to have around 50% increase in daily cases by November 4th, to around 105k daily cases.


Europe is about to see what exponential really means. The U.S. won't be far behind.


I expect total loss of control over the pandemic in Europe by the end of this month, and in the U.S. by mid-November.


The real numbers are completely bonkers, many times higher then what official numbers are.



The only reason why I am still talking about the official numbers is because those are the numbers people are looking at.

If Europe hits 300k daily cases in the next 17-18 days, the pandemic will be out of control. If the real number of cases would be around the official number, the pandemic will be under total control.

However, those 300k cases, if reached by Nov.4th in Europe, will actually mean millions of daily cases...and this means that the pandemic is off charts and out of control.


We, in Europe, STILL have time to stop a raging pandemic. But time is running extremely short. I give Europe a maximum of 10 days to stop this, and the U.S. about 21 days.

Europe must enter a full lock-down no later then October 27th, and the U.S. no longer then November 7th. I am repeating what I have said in January, giving last possible dates to avoid a catastrophe.


These are short time predictions, because time is running short.



Let's see if next week is going to bring some reality check on the governments.


But don't hold your breath. They have already betting on the wrong horses.

I just hope that next week (which will make this week look good), will scare them enough to start realizing, before it is too late, that what they think it will work, it's not working.

DR update