I am really wondering about the case drop #'s though.
What is the general consensus on this site?
Quoting: CLYMER My thoughts are we are simply not mixing. We have developed some separation and masks are working. Most schools are out, so you do not have children bringing it home to parents. No holidays are occurring right now. Also, the weather is a factor, it is cold and icy many places, so people are just naturally hunkering down.
Remember that there is a new way to be determined to be a "case" according to the guidelines. It makes it harder to be scientifically defined. It does not mean it is there, you are just not defined.
Also, the new variants have not had the time to spread. I think we will have another way before summer due to the variants spreading. It is not over until it is over.
i think this is important to figure out. it will give us more insight as to how this virus acts.
not all schools are closed.not everyone is wearing masks. and it is not cold ini the entire world either. all of these factors were being done at different levels world wide for the last year.it was winter in the Southern Hempisphere as Brazil blew up and is now summer there.
let's do the math on the timeline- the cases started dropping in JAN. here on the NY-PA border there is a 3week delay from initial exposure to an outbreak being reported. then contact tracing and more testing starts. so what #'s u see today are what was happening 3 wks ago.
holidays to JAN 1st,new years. we were told ppl would travel and spread the virus.schools did close 2 wks before for xmas. at this time ,our cases were climbing. there was a wave ,wave 1 actually, flowing across the northern counties of PA from east to west.counties near me in NY STATE showed alert status. this alert moved around my county. as 1 county began to do more testing and work to get the case # under control,the next would spike up. this too was happening farther west along the border.
we never saw a spike from the holidays. with the testing and delay of the tracing,we should have saw cases climb from the holiday traveling. ppl in the rural areas were still having holidays as normal. but the case counts actually fell not only in the 3 weeks following the holidays but continued to fall. we went from 2500 cases in the surrounding counties to down near half of it.
u can look up my posts on this. i gave the totals at the end of each month since the fall. i also told where it was headed logically. we should have saw a holidays spike,then the schools were opened and sports back to playing. so i predicted we would see a climb to mid-FEB to MARCH.
and this drop happened everywhere at the same time. and as u have said we all were at different waves and doing different protocals to get control over the virus.
