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Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160

 
NawtyBits

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01/22/2020 12:10 PM

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Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
This will be a thread for news and information on nCoV that's currently emerging. I would appreciate it if you start a tread on breaking news, you post a copy of the breaking info on this thread, too.

Some rules:

If you post a link to information, then please post a snippet of the info.

If you post a video, post a synopsis.

There are a couple of folks I know that attend GLP (or did) and they are quite knowledgeable on pandemics. (Trey?) Please chime in.

If you post something in a foreign language, please translate it to English.



I know, I know, I'm a fussy little man-bitch. Deal with it. Or don't. I don't have time to wade through the BS right now. This may fizzle out like SARS; it may not. It's way too early to tell, and the way the Chinese are admitting things is cause for deep concern.

Now we wait and see.

Last Edited by NawtyBits on 02/21/2020 11:21 AM
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:17 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
I suggest reading this whole article. It is a translation of a Boxun article. Boxun is an aggregation website, which focuses on alleged political scandals in China. Partially supported by U.S. government-funded National Endowment for Democracy, Boxun is part of the China Free Press project, which is initiated by U.S. government.


[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]

Blockade of major epidemic information

China's party-state system has always thought that it has unparalleled superiority over western democratic systems. Under the "one-shot" of the party leader, it can "concentrate its strengths on major tasks." However, the facts show that from SARS 17 years ago to Wuhan pneumonia today, it has neither reflected the ruling party's "initial heart" to protect the national life, and people and family members who have no cause of illness cannot expect to hear the "one final word" of the party leader because the party-state system The ability to "concentrate on major issues" was mainly used to block news at the beginning of the epidemic.

The first case of the so-called "Wuhan pneumonia" occurred in early December last year, and there have been few official cases since then, indicating that the condition does not seem to develop rapidly. Until January 19, China did not report confirmed or suspected cases outside Wuhan. Li Gang, director of the Wuhan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, also claimed on the 19th that the epidemic was "preventable and controllable", a statement that was confirmed in the latest announcement of the Health Emergency Office of the Chinese National Health and Health Commission.

But after a lapse of one day, the official door shifted sharply, and the Central Expert Group came to Wuhan, acknowledging that "people pass from person to person," and the number of cases suddenly rose. Showing the spread of the epidemic in China is by no means an understatement.

[snip]

China's ability to "concentrate to do major things" is quite good at blocking information and whitewashing peace. It is still above the system of infectious disease diagnosis and diagnosis, but the focus is on tediousness rather than efficiency. According to reports: An anonymous Guangdong health official confirmed that the authorities required all doctors to follow a multi-day "three-step confirmation agreement", otherwise the confirmed cases could not be announced publicly. It was only on January 12 that China submitted the genome sequence to the World Health Organization, and then took two days to generate a diagnostic test kit and distribute it to public health agencies in various places.

[snip]

In addition, unverified information from Wuhan also showed that Wuhan residents posted images of their own diagnosis of viral pneumonia on Weibo and described the long queue of patients with similar symptoms late at night in the hospital on Monday night, but none of these patients Asked for coronavirus testing. It was also revealed that many and many suspected patients in his Wuhan hospital had not been diagnosed. The patients waiting to be diagnosed were patients who were admitted a month ago, and the accelerated examination was only started yesterday. All this information is doubtful: the number of patients currently reported in Wuhan may be much lower than the actual situation.
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:23 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]

Wuhan pneumonia spreads 45% of provinces and cities, 440 people are infected, 9 people are dead

The epidemic of new coronavirus infection pneumonia in Wuhan has continued to expand, with the latest confirmed cases rising to 440, a 36% increase from midnight infections and spread to at least 14 provinces and cities in China; the number of deaths The addition of three people increased the cumulative death to nine. The National Health Committee of China stated that human-to-human infections and medical staff infections had occurred in the cases, and there was a certain range of community transmission. The virus may be mutated and the epidemic risked further spread.

The Health and Health Commission held a press conference this morning (22th). Li Bin, deputy director, quoted expert analysis at the meeting to make the above disclosure. He emphasized that efforts to prevent and control the epidemic will be strengthened, and the source and transmission route of the virus will be identified as soon as possible. Cooperation and exchange of information. In Wuhan, the epidemic control measures will be further strengthened, the "entry barriers" will be put in place, and wild animals will be strictly controlled.


[snip]

...in a press conference this morning that there is no evidence to prove that there have been super communicators, and the authorities will be committed to prevention, paying special attention to this possible situation.

As of yesterday, the death toll from the infection with the new pneumonia virus in Wuhan has increased to six, a 66-year-old man and a 48-year-old woman, respectively. The two died of multiple organ failure. There were 51 cases of severe illness and 12 cases of critical illness in Wuhan, together with 6 deaths. The serious rate accounted for 26.7% of the cases in Wuhan.

[snip]

To curb the spread of the epidemic, Wuhan has almost "ruled the city." The city's mayor Zhou Xianwang called yesterday that people outside the city should not go to Wuhan unless necessary; Wuhan citizens should not leave without special circumstances. The city's health and health committee also announced that it would strengthen control over personnel entering and leaving Wuhan.

Comment: So, no apparent super spreaders. Good news.
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:29 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
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447 confirmed cases.

118 suspected cases in HK.
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

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Deplorable Revbo™

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01/22/2020 12:32 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
This sounds like my kinda pandemic news thread. Just don't get it pinned or it'll devolve in to an argument between nothing-will-happen and panic-now tardism and various conspiracy theories of which the poster is 100% certain and demands that you agree with him or he'll call you a crazy idiot.
"We just need to make sure that nobody knows until everybody knows." -RADM Lyle Haggerty, Contagion
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:34 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]

Hospital refuses patients from seafood market

Wuhan Seafood Market is the birthplace of Wuhan pneumonia. Many people were infected there, but according to a nurse working in Wuhan, many hospitals do not accept patients in the seafood market. Some patients go to the hospital every day to drop bottles, walk back and forth on the street, and spread the virus.

According to WeChat, a China Life Weekly magazine published a field interview in Wuhan today on January 22, a seafood market in the birthplace of Wuhan pneumonia has a boss named Huang Chang. The owner revealed that his owner, who sells fish and shrimps next to his store, became infected with pneumonia in mid-December. Later, the couple selling dried fruits across the stall also had problems. Many people were infected in the building where he lived.

He and his wife have been recruited, but they have not been isolated. His nurse's daughter has many classmates working in hospitals. According to his daughter, many hospitals in Wuhan do not treat infected people in the seafood market. Boss Huang said that because he did not tell the hospital the truth, he was only admitted to the hospital because he only said where he lived. And his wife needs to go to the hospital to hang bottles, a course of 9 days, walking on the street every day. Such contagious patients are likely to spread the virus while walking on the street.
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

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Jaques

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01/22/2020 12:36 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
On the basis of the information currently available, ECDC considers that:
• potential impact of #nCoV2019 outbreaks is high;
• further global spread is likely;
• moderate likelihood of infection for EU/EEA travellers visiting #Wuhan;
• moderate likelihood of detecting cases imported in into EU/EEA countries
• adherence to appropriate infection prevention and control practices, particularly in healthcare settings in EU/EEA countries with direct links to Wuhan, means that the likelihood of a case reported in the EU resulting in secondary cases within the EU/EEA is low.

Read the full #RiskAssessment here: [link to www.ecdc.europa.eu (secure)]
Jaques
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:39 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
French suspect cleared

[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]

Following the announcement of new infections in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, a suspected case was found in France on Tuesday but was finally confirmed to exclude the risk. A Frenchman who had stayed in Wuhan for too many days developed symptoms of pneumonia. He was quickly quarantined and later Experts from the Pasteur School of Medicine confirmed that the patient was not infected with the virus.
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In Yer Neck

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01/22/2020 12:40 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
bump Thanks for the thread, Opie.
And, it's 17 dead now.

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Take it one step at a time. One step, and then the next gets you where you’re going.

Please leave the room if this will offend you. - R. Budd Dwyer

Shites n giggles. One free stock for you, one for me.
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Jaques

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01/22/2020 12:46 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
Lauren Gardner
@TexasDownUnder
We are tracking the 2019-nCoV spread in real-time. Cases and locations can be viewed here; data available for download. #nCoV2019 @JHUSystems

[link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]
Jaques
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01/22/2020 12:47 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
Wuhan fever woman admits to enter France after cooling with antipyretics

[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]

A Wuhan woman who reportedly had symptoms of cough and fever recently admitted to France after cooling down with antipyretics. However, there is no news to confirm that the Wuhan woman was diagnosed with a new coronavirus.

According to WeChat account "Conceptualized Star King" on January 21, a woman in Wuhan had a low fever and cough, and after using an antipyretic drug to cool down, she successfully arrived in France. The account posted photos and text screenshots of the woman in the circle of friends. The feverish woman in Wuhan said that she had a low fever and a cough before she set off, and she took her medicine quickly and continuously took her body temperature. Fortunately, her body temperature had dropped and she had smooth entry and exit. She also took pictures of her friends eating at a restaurant in Lyon, France. She said, of course, in the city of food, Lyon, Michelin. ···


Comment: OK. This woman had a fever, took a couple tylenol, enough to fool the airport screeners, went to France with friends, and did the touristy thing. Unfortunately, the story does not say what happened to the woman after being in France.

This shit is how bad shit happens.
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:48 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
This sounds like my kinda pandemic news thread. Just don't get it pinned or it'll devolve in to an argument between nothing-will-happen and panic-now tardism and various conspiracy theories of which the poster is 100% certain and demands that you agree with him or he'll call you a crazy idiot.
 Quoting: Deplorable Revbo™


Well, I like having control over that crap. I'm fine with healthy debate, but really, we are past the debate, and are in the "follow the yellow brick road" mode.
I am a professional paranormal investigator, evidence posted on my Facebook page:

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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:50 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
Lauren Gardner
@TexasDownUnder
We are tracking the 2019-nCoV spread in real-time. Cases and locations can be viewed here; data available for download. #nCoV2019 @JHUSystems

[link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Jaques


Great map. Thanks!
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:51 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
This is an oldie but goodie:

[link to www.popsci.com (secure)]

How Sneeze Particles Travel Inside An Airplane
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

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Deplorable Revbo™

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01/22/2020 12:53 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
This sounds like my kinda pandemic news thread. Just don't get it pinned or it'll devolve in to an argument between nothing-will-happen and panic-now tardism and various conspiracy theories of which the poster is 100% certain and demands that you agree with him or he'll call you a crazy idiot.
 Quoting: Deplorable Revbo™


Well, I like having control over that crap. I'm fine with healthy debate, but really, we are past the debate, and are in the "follow the yellow brick road" mode.
 Quoting: NawtyBits


Yeah, I'm glad to see that gold star. I only care about news here. It's way too early for conspiracies, or to make judgments about where it's going. All that stuff is blind speculation at this point. It is simply not possible to make a declaration that this is a bioweapon, or false flag, or hoax, or that it's gonna die out or kill 20% of the world with the information we have available.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/22/2020 12:55 PM
"We just need to make sure that nobody knows until everybody knows." -RADM Lyle Haggerty, Contagion
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2020 12:57 PM
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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
I understand that hospitals in some Chinese cities are only accepting people that appear to have the symptoms, which means that there are many people being turned away from hospitals, but getting infected in the process by coming into contact with sick people

...not good

Infection rates among workers might eventually cause medical professionals to abandon their posts

...not good

Mexico may have its first coronavirus case

...not good

Flights out of Wuhan include: Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, San Francisco, Paris, Tokyo, Bangkok, Maldives, Dubai, Rome, Moscow, Kuala Lumpur, Paris

...not good

International Airlines operating flights out of Wuhan: Air Asia, Air China, Air France, All Nippon Airways, Jetstar Pacific Airlines, Korean Air, Lion Air, Malaysia Airlines, Maldivian Airlines, Malindo Air, Mandarin Airlines, New Gen Airways, Thai Air Asia, Vietnam Airlines, Air France

...not good
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 12:57 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
h/t M Coston

[link to afludiary.blogspot.com (secure)]

Imperial College London: Estimated Number Of Coronavirus Cases In Wuhan, China - Report 2

We estimate that a total of 4,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (uncertainty range: 1,000 – 9,700) had onset of symptoms by 18th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case) [15].

Our estimates should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size in the period 12th January to 18th January – delays in confirming and reporting exported cases and incomplete information about dates of symptom onset together with the still very small numbers of exported cases mean we are unable to estimate the epidemic growth rate at the current time.
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Jaques

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01/22/2020 01:00 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
Marlo Van Marck🇨🇦#FreeKovrigSpavor @MarloVanMarck·1m

''People panic in Wuhan] [Flock to major hospitals for treatment] On January 22, many hospitals in Wuhan faced an extremely high load: fever patients lined up to see the results of pneumonia testing. Hospital corridors are crowded with waiting citizens.” #WuhanPneumonia #nCoV2019''

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
Jaques
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01/22/2020 01:03 PM
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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
Colloidal silver kills all viruses and bacterial infections.
Deplorable Revbo™

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01/22/2020 01:04 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
[link to twitter.com (secure)]


UW Public Health
@uwsph
·
1m
A model co-authored by @betzhallo from @UWBiostat and
@fredhutch estimates size of the #coronavirus outbreak in #Wuhan and suggests there is likely a large number of undetected/untested cases. [link to mobs-lab.org (secure)]

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/22/2020 01:05 PM
"We just need to make sure that nobody knows until everybody knows." -RADM Lyle Haggerty, Contagion
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 01:04 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
h/t penguinsix at FT

[link to www.scmp.com (secure)]

China coronavirus: death toll almost doubles in one day as Hong Kong reports its first two cases

Hong Kong reported its first two cases of coronavirus infection on Wednesday, as mainland China’s death toll from the virus almost doubled in one day.

Authorities were also scrambling to track down four family members of one of the patients in Hong Kong, who had continued their journey to the Philippine capital, Manila.
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

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NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 01:06 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
4 more confirmed cases in Beijing
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WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

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Deplorable Revbo™

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01/22/2020 01:07 PM

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A terrifying graph shows how fast the Wuhan coronavirus has spread so far and how close it is to becoming a pandemic

[link to www.businessinsider.com (secure)]
"We just need to make sure that nobody knows until everybody knows." -RADM Lyle Haggerty, Contagion
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 01:07 PM

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On the basis of the information currently available, ECDC considers that:
• potential impact of #nCoV2019 outbreaks is high;
• further global spread is likely;
moderate likelihood of infection for EU/EEA travellers visiting #Wuhan;
• moderate likelihood of detecting cases imported in into EU/EEA countries
• adherence to appropriate infection prevention and control practices, particularly in healthcare settings in EU/EEA countries with direct links to Wuhan, means that the likelihood of a case reported in the EU resulting in secondary cases within the EU/EEA is low.

Read the full #RiskAssessment here: [link to www.ecdc.europa.eu (secure)]
 Quoting: Jaques


Those are not good odds. Moderate is not good.
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01/22/2020 01:09 PM
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bump Thanks for the thread, Opie.
And, it's 17 dead now.

[link to 3g.dxy.cn (secure)]
 Quoting: In Yer Neck



glassesoff
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5 from me

yoda
racebyu

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01/22/2020 01:11 PM

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5 from me also, facts only thread!
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 01:13 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
WHO Phases of a Pandemic

Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.

In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.

In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.

Phase 4
is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5
is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave.

[link to www.who.int (secure)]
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01/22/2020 01:17 PM
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Here's the link to the WHO press conference ( It hasn't started yet )

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 01:18 PM

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Re: Coronavirus** Losing South Korea? Cases ~Double Since Yesterday, 204 Cases, 2 Dead p160
h/t crofsblog

[link to crofsblogs.typepad.com (secure)]

Nationally confirmed 544 cases suspected of 137 cases cured 28 cases died 17 cases

Source of infection: Unclear

Virus: New Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Way for spreading: not fully grasped, human-to-human transmission, medical staff infection, and community transmission in a certain range

Does the virus mutate: it is possible

Whether the epidemic has spread: yes




Comment:

17/45= ~38% CFR

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NawtyBits  (OP)

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01/22/2020 01:20 PM

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Here's the link to the WHO press conference ( It hasn't started yet )

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78017652


Perfect. Thanks.
I am a professional paranormal investigator, evidence posted on my Facebook page:

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]

WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker





GLP