COVID* STANDFORD MASK STUDY---Elsevier journal to retract widely debunked masks study whose author claimed a Stanford affiliation p345

Jesus wept, what is going on in France? Are today's numbers a result of weekend tests?

Steve Herman
@W7VOA
Researchers say they've calculated for the spread of #COVID19 a median R0 value of 5.7.

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[link to wwwnc.cdc.gov (secure)]

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2



Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
US - New York state: 138,836 cases; 5,489 fatalities (largest single day of deaths - 731)

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FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
France - 98,010 cases, 8,911 deaths. 7,020 in ICU

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FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
France - “We are still in a worsening phase of the epidemic,” Olivier Veran, the French health minister, said in a TV interview Tuesday. - April 7, 2020

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Breaking News
@BreakingNews
Coronavirus death toll in France surpasses 10,000, despite severe quarantine measures that have been put in place across the country to slow the spread of the virus.

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Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
Another Swedish report of hospital that is stopping use of chloroquine because of safety reasons. #COVID19

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Sahlgrenska stops treatment with malaria medication against covid-19

[snip]

Swedish doctors also began to give malaria medication to severely ill patients, despite the lack of controlled studies.

- We did like everyone else and gave chloroquine to the patients in the beginning. There were test tube studies that showed that it had an effect on coronavirus and it was a drug we knew from the treatment of malaria, says Magnus Gisslén, professor and chief physician at the infection clinic at Sahlgrenska University Hospital / Östra.

But now he has made a complete reversal. Last week, all treatment with chloroquine was stopped against covid-19 in Sahlgrenska.

- There were reports of suspected more serious side effects than we first thought. We cannot rule out serious side effects, especially from the heart, and it is a hard-dosed drug. In addition, we have no strong evidence that chloroquine has an effect on covid-19.

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Forecast 1 - 07 April 2020

Summary

This weekly report presents forecasts of the reported number of deaths in the week ahead and analysis of case reporting trends (case ascertainment) for 42 countries with active transmission. The accuracy of these forecasts vary with the quality of surveillance and reporting in each country.

[snip]

Forecasts and Transmissibility Estimates

Based on our best estimates of transmissibility, the COVID-19 epidemic is:

*Stabilising in 14 countries
(Argentina, Austria, Dominican Republic, Greece, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Morocco, Norway, Panama, South Korea)

*Growing slowly in 2 countries (1<Rt<2)
(Netherlands, Spain)

*Growing rapidly in 26 countries (Rt>2)
(Algeria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America)

Based on the central trends in the forecasts, the total number of reported deaths in the coming week is expected to be:

[snip]

Very large in 5 countries (> 5,000 deaths)
(France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States of America)

A sailor on the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz has tested positive

15,865 confirmed cases in California

in the last 24 hours,Illinois had 73 deaths

at least 12,021 people have died in the US

Pennsylvania reports 78 new deaths

Louisiana records highest number of deaths in a single day

1,736 deaths in the US today

Actual deaths are higher. In NY State, the rate of people dying in their homes has risen almost 10x over past levels.

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Dr. Fauci says US should be able to reopen schools in fall

[snip]

"You know, it is unpredictable, but you can get a feel for it if we start talking about the things where the curve goes down," Fauci said. "How we respond and what kind of a rebound we see or don't see, I think is going to have a lot of influence probably more immediately on things like summer camps than it does in the fall," he continued.

He continued: "I fully expect – though, I'm humble enough to know that I can't accurately predict – that by the time we get to the fall that we will have this under control, enough that it certainly will not be the way it is now where people are shutting schools."

The pandemic expert made clear, however, that the coronavirus isn't going to just go away. He said that he expects by the fall the U.S. will have enough herd immunity and have honed its disease mitigation protocols for the coronavirus enough that people will be able to return to public settings.

"My optimistic side tells me that we'll be able to renew to a certain extent, but it's going to be different. Remember now because this is not going to disappear," Fauci said. "So we're going to have to have in place the capability of doing the things that we talk about all the time on this stage, to identify, to isolate, to contact trace — number one. Number two, by that time, we'll have a better feel with the antibody test about what the actual penetrance of this infection was in society."






If people are getting reinfected, I question how much herd immunity we will have by Fall.

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Biden adviser, ObamaCare architect Zeke Emanuel says US should 'prepare' for coronavirus measures to last 18 months



Dr. Zeke Emanuel, an adviser to Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden on the coronavirus, said this week that Americans could be dealing with strict social distancing measures to combat the coronavirus for 18 months and that the U.S. "will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications."

Reopening schools too soon with an average R0 of 5.7 would be bad.

Indeed. It would not surprise me if the next school season started online. We have a summer to update the infrastructure, curriculum, and give every kid a laptop or tablet.

I keep hearing the phrase the "new normal". I think some people are in for a rude awakening one of these days.

Why the coronavirus tests you've never heard of hold the key to exit from lockdown .... [link to www.telegraph.co.uk (secure)]

Coronavirus: Quarantined Italian village turned into human laboratory... [link to www.bbc.com (secure)]

13,007 people have died in the US

Indeed. We need an accurate serology test, otherwise we are going to be stuck at home for many months.

[link to www.cnn.com (secure)]

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy ordered all non-essential construction across the state to cease indefinitely, effective at 8 p.m. ET on Friday.

Exceptions to this order include projects at hospitals and schools, building of affordable housing and emergency services, among other limited instances, Murphy announced in Wednesday’s press conference.

Additionally, the governor is ordering all essential retail-grocery stores and pharmacies to indefinitely limit their number of customers in their stores to 50% of their current approved capacity, and ordered that customers and employees must wear face coverings.

Stores must also provide special shopping hours for high risk individuals.

The restrictions are to be implemented across the state.

New Jersey 3,088 new cases in the last 24 hours

New York will give unemployed workers an additional $600

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More New York coronavirus patients died yesterday than any other day

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said more people died of coronavirus yesterday than any other day before.

There were 779 coronavirus-related deaths across the state Tuesday, Cuomo said in a press briefing today. This is up from 731 deaths on Monday.

He detailed how many people have died across the state over the past few days:

April 2: 562
April 3: 630
April 4: 594
April 5: 599
April 6: 731
April 7: 779

more than 400,000 cases in the US