h/t tetano at FT

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China coronavirus outbreak could be 10 times worse than Sars, expert says

Some snips from this disturbing article:

*A leading Chinese virology expert has warned that the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic
could be 10 times as bad as the Sars outbreak that killed almost 800 people around the world in 2002-03.

*Guan Yi, director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at Hong Kong University, said in an interview with Caixin magazine on Thursday that after a brief visit to the central China city on Tuesday and Wednesday, he “chose to become a deserter” and left.

*The 12 other cases were reported in Thailand, South Korea, Japan, the United States, and the cities of Hong Kong and Macau.

*One of the reasons for the prediction was that authorities in Wuhan had missed their best opportunity to contain the spread of the disease, Guan said.
Although a travel ban had been introduced in the city on Thursday morning, the “golden time” to contain the virus had passed, as most of the people travelling home for the Lunar New Year
holiday had already left, he said.

*“They might have been in contact with patients in the community and still in the incubation stage when they left Wuhan. They are probably virus carriers on the move.”

*Guan said he expected the outbreak to peak over the weekend, as the virus had an incubation period of about eight days.

*“Transmission within communities is believed to be taking place in Wuhan,” the report said. Its assessment “indicated that the epidemic is ongoing in Wuhan and that further spread is almost certain”.

*The epidemiological investigation found that 51 per cent of patients studied had neither visited Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market nor had contact with infected patients, the CDC said.



This is a good article to read in it's entirety as the 50% rule does not allow a good rendition here.