Thread: China locking down 7 cities is no joke! More to follow! Could be **Pneumonic Plague**! This is real doom folks! Jake
User ID: 77849624
United States
01/23/2020 06:14 AM
[Caixin.com] (Reporter Wang Duan Wen Simin in Hong Kong) Guan Yi just returned from Wuhan yesterday (January 22).
　　"Even I chose to be a deserter." Guan Yi is an expert in virology and currently serves as the director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases and the Director of the Influenza Research Center of the University of Hong Kong. Accurate judgments have been made on Wuhan's human-to-human transmission and development curve. (See report: Guan Yi: Wuhan pneumonia development curve is highly similar to SARS )
　　"I'm segregating myself now." Guan Yi locked himself in the room. From January 21st to 22nd, he and his team came to Wuhan, hoping to help find animal sources and cooperation in epidemic prevention, but "there is no power, Sadness comes from the heart. "
　　During the SARS outbreak in 2003, Guan Yi and his team initiated the investigation and diagnosis of SARS pathogens in Guangdong, taking the lead in isolating and identifying SARS coronavirus and proving that market wildlife such as civet cats are the direct source of SARS. The government was advised to ban the wildlife market and curb it. The SARS outbreak and epidemic again. In addition, he has identified all major precursors and routes of transmission of the H5N1 influenza virus currently circulating in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa, and provided most of the pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccine strains proposed by WHO.
　　The epidemic in Wuhan is still spreading. As of 24:00 on January 22, the National Health Commission announced that 571 cases of pneumonia confirmed by new coronavirus infection have been reported in 25 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) nationwide, including 95 severe cases and 17 deaths. Among them, as of 8 pm on the 22nd, Hubei Province reported a total of 444 new cases of coronavirus infection, and 17 deaths came from Hubei. At two o'clock in the morning on January 23, Wuhan finally issued a notice of traffic closure.
　　Guan Yi had an optimistic estimation of the situation when he was interviewed by Ta Kung Pao on January 15, but now the judgement has turned down. He responded that because the notice issued by Wuhan Health and Health Commission from January 11 to 16 was maintained There were 41 cases of pneumonia and no new cases. "I was a little optimistic at the time. If there are no new cases in a few days, that is, more than 12 days, it means that we will win this tough battle."
　　Guan Yi pointed out in an interview with Caixin reporter on the morning of January 23 that the actual effect of the city closure is questionable, because many people have already flowed out to go home for the New Year. Conservatively, the scale of Wuhan pneumonia infection is much larger than SARS.
　　In addition, Zhu Huachen, deputy director of the Institute of Virology of the University of Hong Kong also agreed that the impact of the new coronavirus in Wuhan will far exceed the scale of SARS that year. She pointed out that according to the current case data, the symptoms caused by this virus are very different, ranging from mild to invisible symptoms to severe patients, while SARS in general are mostly severe patients, and symptoms will soon appear after infection. Therefore, compared with SARS, Wuhan pneumonia this time is more difficult to prevent and control. In the long run, a very toxic virus is difficult to survive for a long time, because people who are infected will soon be found, quarantined, or even died soon. It is not easy for the virus to find more infected objects.
　　As a new virus, the development trajectory is generally: the initial transmission is weak, and the symptoms of infected people are generally mild, but if the virus is not controlled during this golden time period, it may cause large-scale infection. Once the virus has survived and adapted to many people, it has the opportunity to mutate further, producing mutations that are more transmissive and more toxic. Zhu Huachen said that if Wuhan ’s new coronavirus has spread widely, it may not be removed as easily as SARS. Therefore, it is imperative to cut off the transmission channels of the virus as soon as possible.
　　At the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 22, Richard Hatchett, CEO of the "Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations", said that there is now a saying that new pneumonia The mortality rate may be lower than SARS, but it may be more infectious than SARS. Because the rate of new pneumonia cases is increasing; the disease status of infected people is also very diverse-including moderate, severe and fatal cases. In addition, people may not be able to confirm that they are infected with the new type of pneumonia in the early stages of the disease, so they are still in and out of public places, which also increases the infectivity of the virus.
　　However, on the evening of January 22, Swiss time, the World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting on whether to announce the new coronavirus pneumonia as an "public health emergency of international concern". After the meeting, WHO Director-General Tan Desai told Caixin reporters that China had sufficient information disclosed to the WHO and that all the information needed by the WHO had been shared. He introduced that Chinese experts were impressed by the details and depth of the introduction of the new coronavirus in the internal WHO meeting.
　　Caixin Reporter: What have you observed in Wuhan recently?
　　Guan Yi: I arrived in Wuhan on the 21st and arrived at a local vegetable market called Xiaodongmen Market at 3 pm. The scene was peaceful and many people were still busy buying New Year's goods. I was extremely surprised. Because this time Wuhan pneumonia originated from the South China seafood market, the source of animal infections has not yet been found, and other vegetable markets appear to be unsatisfactory. The Xiaodongmen market is humid, with poor sanitation and poor ventilation. I observe that less than 10% of the people in the market wear masks.
　　After that, I met some local departments again. At night, I judged that the epidemic situation was out of control in Wuhan. Even people like me who have been “struggled in battle” must be deserters, so I quickly settled on the 22nd. Out-of-city tickets.
　　At the airport the next day, I was surprised again that I dropped my chin. The airport's passenger flow has dropped significantly, and the airport actually has individual tours.
　　What's even more puzzling is that the ground of the airport is not disinfected, and only the thermometer is used to monitor the body temperature. I observed that in the Wuhan terminal, only sporadic places such as Starbucks put disinfectant.
　　When I passed the security check, the little security girl holding the luggage box was wearing only the simplest disposable mask. I said: Girl, the quality of your mask is not good, and you are in contact with so many passengers every day. She said that she was not allowed to wear it because she was worried about affecting the image, which was prepared by herself.
　　This shows that even though the central authorities have spoken highly in the past two days, the local health protection has not been upgraded at all. I thought at the time that this was going to be a "state of war." Why hadn't the alarm been raised? The people were so pitiful that they were still preparing for the New Year with peace of mind and had no sense of the epidemic.
　　Caixin Reporter: What progress have you made in finding animal sources in Wuhan?
　　Guan Yi: I ate a lot behind closed doors, and there were not many scientific research institutions willing to cooperate. They are inertia in management and may consider themselves more capable.
　　But the key point I want to point out was that the South China Seafood Market was closed, the floor was washed, and the "crime scene" was gone. How can we solve the case without evidence? Tracing the source of an animal is a relatively complicated process. I cannot easily find an animal with a virus and blame it as the culprit. It requires scientific analysis such as scale and system.
　　Caixin Reporter: How to treat Wuhan ’s closure?
　　Guan Yi: Evaluating a measure depends on the time and effect. At the time, I feel that the golden prevention and control period has been missed, and I am not optimistic about the effect. According to my observations, the flow of people on the streets of Wuhan City has significantly decreased on the 21st, the Spring Festival tide is almost over, and many young people or hometowns have returned home for the Chinese New Year. They may have come into contact with patients in the community and left the city. It is still in the incubation period, and it is likely to be mobile viruses. When these people returned to their hometowns, they took the virus to all parts of the country. Starting from their departure on the 17th and 18th, people on the 25th and 26th may need to pay more attention.
　　In addition, those who have left the city will not or do not understand how to isolate themselves. I don't think the local government has done anything, and even a quarantine guide has not been given to those who have left the city.
　　On January 20th, the National Health and Medical Commission has issued a document to include Wuhan pneumonia into the legal management of Class B infectious diseases, and adopted measures for the prevention and control of Class A infectious diseases. However, according to my observations and investigations, I still have Wuhan Undefended city.
　　Caixin Reporter: How to determine the trend of the next epidemic?
　　Guan Yi: The outbreak is certain. "Wuhan's nine provinces are all connected", coupled with missing the gold prevention and control period, and the tide of the Spring Festival, some people do nothing.
　　I have also counted hundreds of battles and experienced bird flu, SARS, H5N1, swine fever and so on. But for this pneumonia in Wuhan, I really feel extremely weak. There is simply no comparison with the SARS epidemic. At that time, SARS first developed in several cities in the Pearl River Delta, followed by Beijing and Hong Kong.
　　60% -70% of the SARS infected people are from individual super communicators, and the transmission chain is very clear, as long as the contacts of those people are blocked. But this time, the source of transmission has been fully spread, and epidemiological investigations are no longer possible. And to control costs, you should use a geometric digital meter.
　　It is conservatively estimated that the scale of the infection may eventually take off 10 times that of SARS. I've experienced so much, I've never felt scared, most of them are controllable, but this time I'm scared.
　　Caixin Reporter: As an individual, what can you do now, and how should you do it?
　　Guan Yi: If you have been to Wuhan, please isolate yourself. Take myself as an example. When I left Wuhan, I wore a mask all the way on the plane. As soon as I got off the plane, I used alcohol disinfectant to disinfect all my clothes, shoes, and luggage. I also asked everyone in the team to prepare supplies. The house was self-isolated for at least five days, and reported every morning and evening with or without symptoms. Other people who have not been to Wuhan try to go to public places as little as possible. Once they feel uncomfortable, seek medical treatment as soon as possible and avoid contact with others.
　　Caixin Reporter: Why is there a sudden increase in new cases? You have expressed optimistic judgment in an interview with Ta Kung Pao earlier.
　　Guan Yi: I have reported no new cases for a few days before. At that time, I was still a little optimistic. If there are no new cases in a few days, that is, more than 12 days, it means that we will win this tough battle. (In the circular issued by Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from January 11th to 16th, 41 cases of pneumonia with new coronavirus infection were maintained, no new cases were added.)
　　But now there are a lot of new cases. I want to say that it's not better than who is more powerful than anyone else. It really requires a responsible attitude towards the country and the people.
　　(updating)
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　　For more details, please refer to: [Feature] Wuhan Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention Record (in real-time updating)
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beau voir
Canada
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