Pandemic coronavirus simulations 2001 - 2019 Overview, personal thoughts and notes

Pined

Two more reports to post in pdf format:

1) A World At Risk, by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (under the umbrella of WHO and Word Bank), published in September 2019, which warned that

"..an outbreak equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic could kill an estimated 50 to 80 million people, spreading around the world in less than 36 hours and wiping out nearly five percent of the global economy.."

48 pages read, but by scrolling through it quite easy to read, so recommended:

[link to apps.who.int (secure)]

the report is also available here:

[link to apps.who.int (secure)]

Another fact: It is the first report of this board

2) Preparedness for a High-Impact Respiratory Pathogen Pandemic by Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, also published in September 2019

snippet

"..In 1918, the global case fatality ratio is estimated to have been 2.5%, but it was considerably greater in low- and middle-income countries, with some estimates exceeding 10%. Today, some high-income countries would be expected to fare much better because of modern health care, but the case fatality in countries with limited access to healthcare could be as bad as or worse than 1918.
Simple arithmetic would suggest the possibility of 100 to 400 million deaths if a 1918-like pandemic were to occur today, but unprepared or under-resourced health systems could further exacerbate disease transmission through nosocomial spread and an inability to promptly diagnose and render care, a particular concern for developing health systems..."

84 pages read, worth scanning or reading in full:

[link to apps.who.int (secure)]

The report is also available here (in various languages):

[link to www.centerforhealthsecurity.org]

Again two reports, one month before Event 201 and 3 months before the current outbreak. What are the odds?

Thanks Mezzo.

Will you estimate how much time we have.
I suspect it's 5 days.

Flashpoint when Corona appeared was mid-December.

Thank you for doing this research. Much appreciation for the links

Drastic times require NEW IDEAS. Pick a nice island with nice hotels, evacuate island of all the well people and make them comfy on mainland. Put your sick people (that will include nurses, doctors, and medical supplies) on that island. AirDrop all the supplies. Treat them nice, give them luxury. Patients need the ultraviolet light of natural sunshine to heal NOT A HOSPITAL.

For God’s sake quit putting them in hospitals and foaming the doors shut and wasting resources, exposing healthy care workers! This would be CHEAPER AND MORE HUMANE THAN A HOSPITAL. The warm sunny weather would do them good.

We need a radical change in thinking. Save the hospitals for the normal stuff, do not overwhelm them.

THIS IS NOT A JOKE, I AM FOR REAL, THIS WILL WORK. Then you don’t have to quarantine any more cities and destroy economies.

This is not a “draconian measure” suggested by experts that only think traditionally. This is humane....sunshine, fresh air, and total quarrentine.

I don't want to ridicule your post, but how do you deal with the dead? And how big of an Island should it be in case of a pandemic? And what do we do with the healthy people?

If the number of cases keeps growing and mortality rate is say 3 to 5%, that is quite an industry you need. Within no time you will be out of space, the beauty will fade and the troubles will start.

Sounds a bit like a Stepford Wives idea.



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Even though I do agree that sunshine and fresh air gives energy and healing power. But if you are sick to death, does that really make you feel better?

Closing notes:

The above events and scenarios may be fictional, but they can serve as a blueprint in case of an actual pandemic situation. It might read as a fiction book or movie, but in fact it is a very scary situation, that in reality may lead to widespread disaster. My basic goal is not to scare anyone or be a disaster tourist, but to make people aware of how fast a local disease can lead to a global pandemic. Either man made or spread through animals.

What struck me most in these events is the following:
Governments talk a lot, but are not ready for events like these.
When push comes to shove, it is mostly each for their own.
Private and public sector interests are (still) miles apart.
Vaccine production is NOT a priority, financially driven.
Governments unable to coop with speed pandemic.
World Health Organisation (WHO) is basically invisible.
WHO is subjective to governments’ political agenda.
Honest, speedy information is not a quality (to say the least.)

And there for sure are much more remarks to make, subjective and objective, about communication, internet, social media, the causes of the current outbreak etc. Everyone has their own opinion on that and is entitled to it. But keep it clean. Like my other threads, I will not tolerate insulting or name calling. Discuss, but in a respectful and mature way.

I myself am left with the feeling that in case such a pandemic will occur, we need to rely on our own circle of influence rather than trusting the governments, but also be aware of false information spread by those who have no other goal than to spread chaos.

My friends, apart from the current situation, we live in challenging times. Mother Nature is angry, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods. Drums of war. People are angry and divided, often not even knowing why or triggered by the immature, subjective political climate (no matter what side of the spectrum.)

But this world is not all bad. Not by far. Just look around you. Your neighbor of so many years is still the same neighbor, whether you like him or not. We can still laugh about silly stuff, play our music, live our lives the way we do. We do have happy times, even though spending to much time online might make you think otherwise.

We need to help those we can help and make them aware and prepare for what might come. If it doesn’t happen, no harm done, right? All the better! There is nothing lost in preparation, but also not in putting people at ease, lending them an ear or a shoulder or whatever help they can use. We all live on this piece of rock together, so we better make the most of it.

So take care of yourself and each other!

Sorry if already posted, this link is handy also for tracking..

Each case has a source link

[link to bnonews.com (secure)]

below map. and sorted by date.

Thanks, Mezzo. Those graphs really put the situation into perspective. Not frightening, but we need to be watchful.

And the World Health Organization stays invisible

Who? WHO! Who?? WHO!!.. well..

:AliWHO:

Closing notes:

The above events and scenarios may be fictional, but they can serve as a blueprint in case of an actual pandemic situation. It might read as a fiction book or movie, but in fact it is a very scary situation, that in reality may lead to widespread disaster. My basic goal is not to scare anyone or be a disaster tourist, but to make people aware of how fast a local disease can lead to a global pandemic. Either man made or spread through animals.

What struck me most in these events is the following:
Governments talk a lot, but are not ready for events like these.
When push comes to shove, it is mostly each for their own.
Private and public sector interests are (still) miles apart.
Vaccine production is NOT a priority, financially driven.
Governments unable to coop with speed pandemic.
World Health Organisation (WHO) is basically invisible.
WHO is subjective to governments’ political agenda.
Honest, speedy information is not a quality (to say the least.)

And there for sure are much more remarks to make, subjective and objective, about communication, internet, social media, the causes of the current outbreak etc. Everyone has their own opinion on that and is entitled to it. But keep it clean. Like my other threads, I will not tolerate insulting or name calling. Discuss, but in a respectful and mature way.

I myself am left with the feeling that in case such a pandemic will occur, we need to rely on our own circle of influence rather than trusting the governments, but also be aware of false information spread by those who have no other goal than to spread chaos.

My friends, apart from the current situation, we live in challenging times. Mother Nature is angry, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods. Drums of war. People are angry and divided, often not even knowing why or triggered by the immature, subjective political climate (no matter what side of the spectrum.)

But this world is not all bad. Not by far. Just look around you. Your neighbor of so many years is still the same neighbor, whether you like him or not. We can still laugh about silly stuff, play our music, live our lives the way we do. We do have happy times, even though spending to much time online might make you think otherwise.

We need to help those we can help and make them aware and prepare for what might come. If it doesn’t happen, no harm done, right? All the better! There is nothing lost in preparation, but also not in putting people at ease, lending them an ear or a shoulder or whatever help they can use. We all live on this piece of rock together, so we better make the most of it.

So take care of yourself and each other!