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IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!

 
AstroshillModerator  (OP)
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01/27/2020 08:50 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Astro will it be visible in Australia? If so, what time?

Cheers
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78400599


Nope, if impact occurs it will only be visible in the Eastern US and Canada.
astrobanner2
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2020 08:58 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Is this the kind of thing that the newly formed Space Force can assist with?

Like: "Hey, Alphabet Company, fix your satellite or WE WILL."
 Quoting: AxX


Do you think the new space force is sending people up?

Are you retarded? It's just satellite monitoring systems, same as it ever was, just under a "new agency".

Why are people so clueless to this? Oh yeah, right, same folks who believe we have battlestar galactica sized spacecraft. FFS grow up some.
recap
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01/27/2020 09:06 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
On Jan 29 at 23:39:35 UTC, these two objects will pass close by one another at a relative velocity of 14.7 km/s (900km directly above Pittsburgh, PA). Our latest metrics on the event show a predicted miss distance of between 15-30 meters
-------
GGSE-4 Gradient Stabilization Experiment 4

Two Line Element Set (TLE): GGSE-4 (2828)

1 2828U 67053C 20027.25724299 -.00000053 +00000-0 +36097-6 0 9992
2 2828 069.9716 031.1069 0010036 307.3560 052.6631 13.97443436682265
------
IRAS Infrared Astronomical Satellite IRAS (13777)

Two Line Element Set (TLE):

1 13777U 83004A 20027.24330355 -.00000103 +00000-0 -40167-4 0 9994
2 13777 098.9545 212.8908 0017534 296.7193 063.2177 14.00452582559808
------- Source of the keplerian elements: AFSPC
Michibama

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01/27/2020 09:07 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Why can't Elon send a pick up truck?
 Quoting: pool


chuckle
morans789


“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2020 09:10 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
can the space plane not move one or the chinese shoot it
Pole Cat

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01/27/2020 09:14 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Cool. Hope you can catch it on vid

popcorn
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2020 09:31 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Just so happens to be the scope that discovered the interloper planet x, nibiru, nemesis, etc.
AxX

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01/27/2020 09:50 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Is this the kind of thing that the newly formed Space Force can assist with?

Like: "Hey, Alphabet Company, fix your satellite or WE WILL."
 Quoting: AxX


Do you think the new space force is sending people up?

Are you retarded? It's just satellite monitoring systems, same as it ever was, just under a "new agency".

Why are people so clueless to this? Oh yeah, right, same folks who believe we have battlestar galactica sized spacecraft. FFS grow up some.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78383640


You project too much. Nowhere do I say anything you question. Sorry to infringe upon your magnificent brain. Dealing with us must be so exhausting. Carry on, eh..
Energy flows where focus goes.

[25/77/22]

Rev 3:9 <-- Wonder who these guys are?

“The future’s uncertain and The End is always near!” - Jim Morrison, 1970
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2020 09:52 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Which will cause a domino effect and GLP will be even slower tomorrow
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2020 09:53 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
I’m interested. Thanks Astro.hf
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2020 09:57 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
[link to twitter.com (secure)]
IRAS, a wide field infrared telescope launched in 1983, is at risk of colliding with an even older satellite, the Gravity Gradient Stabilization Experiment 4 which was launched in 1967 ( [link to nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)] ). Both satellites are out of commission so neither can maneuver out of the way. Both are sizable satellites traveling at high velocities relative to each other (they're coming at each other head-on), so a collision would produce a huge amount of debris. The risk of collision currently stands at about 1% with a predicted miss distance of just a few meters.

The satellites will actually be overhead and illuminated during an early evening pass for me at the moment of the predicted collision. I will try to track and film it if I can, but the weather forecast is not favorable at that time. Even if the collision does not happen, I should see two satellites passing right by each other. If a collision does happen, it would amazing to capture it on video. It's a low risk, but if it happens it will shower debris along the orbit. These are both high inclination satellites, so the debris field would intersect virtually all low orbits at some point.
 Quoting: Astroshill


1%? That's worse than low risk, that's practically non existent.
Phillip J. Fry

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01/27/2020 09:58 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
SpaceBalls is on it!


.

"Don't do anything that affects anything. Unless it turns out you were supposed to do it, in which case for the love of God. Don't not do it!"
AstroshillModerator  (OP)
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01/27/2020 09:59 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Just so happens to be the scope that discovered the interloper planet x, nibiru, nemesis, etc.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78248027


No, it didn't.
astrobanner2
Grief

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01/27/2020 10:11 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Wasn't this the scenario, of satellites colliding, the premise for the movie, GRAVITY ?

When they announced the creation of the US Space Force, I thought they already had this deterrent system as part of their deep defense black budget:


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
SmoothSailing

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01/27/2020 10:18 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Is this the kind of thing that the newly formed Space Force can assist with?

Like: "Hey, Alphabet Company, fix your satellite or WE WILL."
 Quoting: AxX


It's the kind of thing Space Command is supposed to help with just by informing the parties that control each satellite. In this case, the Air Force and NASA are the two parties that launched these satellites, but neither one can control their satellite since both are long since dead.

This is one reason why it's so important to include a plan for deorbiting the satellite at the end of the mission so that it doesn't become uncontrollable space junk. Even Hubble had a mating device installed during the final servicing mission to enable a future robotic spacecraft to attach to it and perform a controlled deorbit maneuver once Hubble shuts down.

Maybe one day it will be possible to rapidly launch an X-37B with a robotic grappling device to grab a dead satellite and force it out of the way before a predicted collision event, that kind of thing would probably fall under the direction of the Space Force.
 Quoting: Astroshill


bump
"A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear."
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6496
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01/27/2020 10:20 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
One stupid question ...
>
How many nm of powdered satellites are needed to block 10% of the Sun's energy.

: - /
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:48 AM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Just checking in popcorn
7134
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01/28/2020 10:49 AM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
[link to www.rt.com (secure)]
-two-satellites-orbital-collision
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
The pair of satellites are expected to cross paths on January 29 at 23:39:35 UTC, at an altitude of around 560 miles (901 kilometers) above Pittsburgh, PA. At a relative velocity of 9.1 miles per second (14.7 kilometers per second), the machines are expected to come within 50 to 100 feet (15 to 30 meters) of each other. However, there is a one in a hundred chance they'll hit each other and create a huge debris field in orbit.
/
The bigger of the two is the decommissioned IRAS space telescope which was sent up in 1983, measuring 11.8 by 10.6 by 6.7 feet (3.6 by 3.24 by 2.05 meters) and having a launch mass of 2,388 pounds (1,083 kg).
/
Its potential doomsday date is the GGSE-4, a defunct science payload from 1967, which weighs just 10 pounds (4.5 kg) but is attached to the 187-pound (85 kg) recently declassified military satellite Poppy 5.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
AstroshillModerator  (OP)
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01/28/2020 10:55 AM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
[link to www.rt.com (secure)]
-two-satellites-orbital-collision
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
The pair of satellites are expected to cross paths on January 29 at 23:39:35 UTC, at an altitude of around 560 miles (901 kilometers) above Pittsburgh, PA. At a relative velocity of 9.1 miles per second (14.7 kilometers per second), the machines are expected to come within 50 to 100 feet (15 to 30 meters) of each other. However, there is a one in a hundred chance they'll hit each other and create a huge debris field in orbit.
/
The bigger of the two is the decommissioned IRAS space telescope which was sent up in 1983, measuring 11.8 by 10.6 by 6.7 feet (3.6 by 3.24 by 2.05 meters) and having a launch mass of 2,388 pounds (1,083 kg).
/
Its potential doomsday date is the GGSE-4, a defunct science payload from 1967, which weighs just 10 pounds (4.5 kg) but is attached to the 187-pound (85 kg) recently declassified military satellite Poppy 5.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
 Quoting: 7134 72713487


Fascinating. NASA didn't list the total payload mass, just the 4 kg GGSE mass, but that makes sense given that Poppy was classified.
[link to nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
astrobanner2
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01/28/2020 11:15 AM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Fascinating.
 Quoting: Astroshill


I may be wrong with preliminary estimations but ...

20 TW 0.2 ms
EM spectrum ???

In case of collision any chance for EMP,
almost sure, but ??? spectrum ???

Maybe better do not look at.


:-/
AstroshillModerator  (OP)
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01/28/2020 11:56 AM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
Fascinating.
 Quoting: Astroshill


I may be wrong with preliminary estimations but ...

20 TW 0.2 ms
EM spectrum ???

In case of collision any chance for EMP,
almost sure, but ??? spectrum ???

Maybe better do not look at.


:-/
 Quoting: 2933 73293380

No, it's not a nuclear bomb so no risk of EMP.
astrobanner2
Grief

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01/28/2020 12:26 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
If these two satellites are non-functional, are they tumbling?
AstroshillModerator  (OP)
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01/28/2020 01:34 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
If these two satellites are non-functional, are they tumbling?
 Quoting: Grief


Most likely yes. I verified IRAS was tumbling when I tracked it with my telescope about 9 years ago.

That's why it flares up in brightness before dimming down and then flaring up again over the course of the 2 minute video I captured.
astrobanner2
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01/28/2020 01:56 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
The risk of collision currently stands at about 1%

So it could actually be less than 1 percent chance

How is this news???
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78369159


Because it's still a 1% chance. That's pretty damn high when it comes to a collision this major. The debris released would be as catastrophic as the infamous Iridium/Cosmos satellite collision.
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]
*Note that Celestrak predicted those two satellites would miss by more than 500 meters. This time we're dealing with a predicted miss distance of no more than 30 meters...
 Quoting: Astroshill


In any given year, the probability of an influenza pandemic causing nearly 6 million pneumonia and influenza deaths (8 deaths per 10,000 persons) or more globally is 1 percent.

That would also happen to be catastrophic, come on man, it happens but 99 times out of a 100, chance yeh, probability no.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78369159


Fine, next time I just won't tell you, I'll keep the info to myself.
 Quoting: Astroshill


Dont bother answering attention graving mental midgets like that. Dude has nothing positive to say but is so needy for any type of interaction he comes in here to tell you off...
Theres basketball and soccer for people like that.

Myself i really like this info and hope to see more soon
Grief

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01/28/2020 01:59 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
If these two non-functional satellites so much as brush against each other, their presumed trajectories may be altered.
AstroshillModerator  (OP)
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01/28/2020 02:05 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
If these two non-functional satellites so much as brush against each other, their presumed trajectories may be altered.
 Quoting: Grief


At 14 km/s there is no brushing. If they touch it will release a huge amount of energy and destroy both of them. The debris will be in a wide array of elliptical orbits that start off with an intersection point at the collision point. They'll also start off generally within the same orbital plane, but spread out over time due to variable precession of the ascending node and other factors.
astrobanner2
Grief

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01/28/2020 02:21 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
If these two non-functional satellites so much as brush against each other, their presumed trajectories may be altered.
 Quoting: Grief


At 14 km/s there is no brushing. If they touch it will release a huge amount of energy and destroy both of them. The debris will be in a wide array of elliptical orbits that start off with an intersection point at the collision point. They'll also start off generally within the same orbital plane, but spread out over time due to variable precession of the ascending node and other factors.
 Quoting: Astroshill


Didn't something like that happen in the Gravity movie?

If the debris field of orbital junk begins moving in different directions, how much of what is up there will be non-functional after, let's say a year?
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
If these two non-functional satellites so much as brush against each other, their presumed trajectories may be altered.
 Quoting: Grief


At 14 km/s there is no brushing. If they touch it will release a huge amount of energy and destroy both of them. The debris will be in a wide array of elliptical orbits that start off with an intersection point at the collision point. They'll also start off generally within the same orbital plane, but spread out over time due to variable precession of the ascending node and other factors.
 Quoting: Astroshill


Didn't something like that happen in the Gravity movie?

If the debris field of orbital junk begins moving in different directions, how much of what is up there will be non-functional after, let's say a year?
 Quoting: Grief


It won't be nearly as dramatic as the movie. In reality, the problem is more gradual and insidious. It would result in an increase in orbital debris damage to other satellites, active satellites would need to make additional avoidance maneuvers, and it would contribute to a steady cascade of collisions producing more orbital debris in a feedback loop otherwise known as Kessler syndrome. The movie Gravity tried to depict Kessler syndrome but exaggerated how quickly things would cascade out of control.

This would be more akin to the Iridium Cosmos collision which produced well over 1000 tracked pieces of debris in low earth orbit (and no doubt even more smaller untracked pieces).
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]
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Grief

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01/28/2020 03:15 PM
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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
When will the expected fly-by event occur, in Eastern Standard Time?

popcorn6
AstroshillModerator  (OP)
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01/28/2020 03:23 PM

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Re: IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance!
When will the expected fly-by event occur, in Eastern Standard Time?

popcorn6
 Quoting: Grief


6:39:35 Eastern Time (23:39:35 UT).
[link to twitter.com (secure)]
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GLP