IRAS Telescope at risk of colliding with another satellite TONIGHT! 1 in 20 Chance! | |
Astroshill
(OP) Senior Forum Moderator 01/27/2020 08:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78383640 United States 01/27/2020 08:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is this the kind of thing that the newly formed Space Force can assist with? Quoting: AxX Like: "Hey, Alphabet Company, fix your satellite or WE WILL." Do you think the new space force is sending people up? Are you retarded? It's just satellite monitoring systems, same as it ever was, just under a "new agency". Why are people so clueless to this? Oh yeah, right, same folks who believe we have battlestar galactica sized spacecraft. FFS grow up some. |
recap User ID: 75626679 United States 01/27/2020 09:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | On Jan 29 at 23:39:35 UTC, these two objects will pass close by one another at a relative velocity of 14.7 km/s (900km directly above Pittsburgh, PA). Our latest metrics on the event show a predicted miss distance of between 15-30 meters ------- GGSE-4 Gradient Stabilization Experiment 4 Two Line Element Set (TLE): GGSE-4 (2828) 1 2828U 67053C 20027.25724299 -.00000053 +00000-0 +36097-6 0 9992 2 2828 069.9716 031.1069 0010036 307.3560 052.6631 13.97443436682265 ------ IRAS Infrared Astronomical Satellite IRAS (13777) Two Line Element Set (TLE): 1 13777U 83004A 20027.24330355 -.00000103 +00000-0 -40167-4 0 9994 2 13777 098.9545 212.8908 0017534 296.7193 063.2177 14.00452582559808 ------- Source of the keplerian elements: AFSPC |
Michibama
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Pole Cat
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 78248027 United States 01/27/2020 09:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
AxX
User ID: 77751888 United States 01/27/2020 09:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is this the kind of thing that the newly formed Space Force can assist with? Quoting: AxX Like: "Hey, Alphabet Company, fix your satellite or WE WILL." Do you think the new space force is sending people up? Are you retarded? It's just satellite monitoring systems, same as it ever was, just under a "new agency". Why are people so clueless to this? Oh yeah, right, same folks who believe we have battlestar galactica sized spacecraft. FFS grow up some. You project too much. Nowhere do I say anything you question. Sorry to infringe upon your magnificent brain. Dealing with us must be so exhausting. Carry on, eh.. Energy flows where focus goes. [25/77/22] Rev 3:9 <-- Wonder who these guys are? “The future’s uncertain and The End is always near!” - Jim Morrison, 1970 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 41210843 Canada 01/27/2020 09:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 75147420 United States 01/27/2020 09:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 74112039 United States 01/27/2020 09:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to twitter.com (secure)] Quoting: Astroshill IRAS, a wide field infrared telescope launched in 1983, is at risk of colliding with an even older satellite, the Gravity Gradient Stabilization Experiment 4 which was launched in 1967 ( [link to nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)] ). Both satellites are out of commission so neither can maneuver out of the way. Both are sizable satellites traveling at high velocities relative to each other (they're coming at each other head-on), so a collision would produce a huge amount of debris. The risk of collision currently stands at about 1% with a predicted miss distance of just a few meters. The satellites will actually be overhead and illuminated during an early evening pass for me at the moment of the predicted collision. I will try to track and film it if I can, but the weather forecast is not favorable at that time. Even if the collision does not happen, I should see two satellites passing right by each other. If a collision does happen, it would amazing to capture it on video. It's a low risk, but if it happens it will shower debris along the orbit. These are both high inclination satellites, so the debris field would intersect virtually all low orbits at some point. 1%? That's worse than low risk, that's practically non existent. |
Phillip J. Fry
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Astroshill
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Grief
User ID: 76975834 United States 01/27/2020 10:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wasn't this the scenario, of satellites colliding, the premise for the movie, GRAVITY ? When they announced the creation of the US Space Force, I thought they already had this deterrent system as part of their deep defense black budget: [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] |
SmoothSailing
User ID: 77042548 United States 01/27/2020 10:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is this the kind of thing that the newly formed Space Force can assist with? Quoting: AxX Like: "Hey, Alphabet Company, fix your satellite or WE WILL." It's the kind of thing Space Command is supposed to help with just by informing the parties that control each satellite. In this case, the Air Force and NASA are the two parties that launched these satellites, but neither one can control their satellite since both are long since dead. This is one reason why it's so important to include a plan for deorbiting the satellite at the end of the mission so that it doesn't become uncontrollable space junk. Even Hubble had a mating device installed during the final servicing mission to enable a future robotic spacecraft to attach to it and perform a controlled deorbit maneuver once Hubble shuts down. Maybe one day it will be possible to rapidly launch an X-37B with a robotic grappling device to grab a dead satellite and force it out of the way before a predicted collision event, that kind of thing would probably fall under the direction of the Space Force. "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear." Marcus Tullius Cicero |
6496 User ID: 72649676 Poland 01/27/2020 10:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77635199 United States 01/28/2020 04:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
7134 User ID: 72713487 Poland 01/28/2020 10:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.rt.com (secure)] -two-satellites-orbital-collision """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" The pair of satellites are expected to cross paths on January 29 at 23:39:35 UTC, at an altitude of around 560 miles (901 kilometers) above Pittsburgh, PA. At a relative velocity of 9.1 miles per second (14.7 kilometers per second), the machines are expected to come within 50 to 100 feet (15 to 30 meters) of each other. However, there is a one in a hundred chance they'll hit each other and create a huge debris field in orbit. / The bigger of the two is the decommissioned IRAS space telescope which was sent up in 1983, measuring 11.8 by 10.6 by 6.7 feet (3.6 by 3.24 by 2.05 meters) and having a launch mass of 2,388 pounds (1,083 kg). / Its potential doomsday date is the GGSE-4, a defunct science payload from 1967, which weighs just 10 pounds (4.5 kg) but is attached to the 187-pound (85 kg) recently declassified military satellite Poppy 5. """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" |
Astroshill
(OP) Senior Forum Moderator 01/28/2020 10:55 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.rt.com (secure)] Quoting: 7134 72713487 -two-satellites-orbital-collision """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" The pair of satellites are expected to cross paths on January 29 at 23:39:35 UTC, at an altitude of around 560 miles (901 kilometers) above Pittsburgh, PA. At a relative velocity of 9.1 miles per second (14.7 kilometers per second), the machines are expected to come within 50 to 100 feet (15 to 30 meters) of each other. However, there is a one in a hundred chance they'll hit each other and create a huge debris field in orbit. / The bigger of the two is the decommissioned IRAS space telescope which was sent up in 1983, measuring 11.8 by 10.6 by 6.7 feet (3.6 by 3.24 by 2.05 meters) and having a launch mass of 2,388 pounds (1,083 kg). / Its potential doomsday date is the GGSE-4, a defunct science payload from 1967, which weighs just 10 pounds (4.5 kg) but is attached to the 187-pound (85 kg) recently declassified military satellite Poppy 5. """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" Fascinating. NASA didn't list the total payload mass, just the 4 kg GGSE mass, but that makes sense given that Poppy was classified. [link to nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)] |
2933 User ID: 73293380 Poland 01/28/2020 11:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Astroshill
(OP) Senior Forum Moderator 01/28/2020 11:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Grief
User ID: 78402315 United States 01/28/2020 12:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Astroshill
(OP) Senior Forum Moderator 01/28/2020 01:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Most likely yes. I verified IRAS was tumbling when I tracked it with my telescope about 9 years ago. That's why it flares up in brightness before dimming down and then flaring up again over the course of the 2 minute video I captured. |
T-Man
Entitled title User ID: 78270630 Netherlands 01/28/2020 01:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The risk of collision currently stands at about 1% Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78369159 So it could actually be less than 1 percent chance How is this news??? Because it's still a 1% chance. That's pretty damn high when it comes to a collision this major. The debris released would be as catastrophic as the infamous Iridium/Cosmos satellite collision. [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)] *Note that Celestrak predicted those two satellites would miss by more than 500 meters. This time we're dealing with a predicted miss distance of no more than 30 meters... In any given year, the probability of an influenza pandemic causing nearly 6 million pneumonia and influenza deaths (8 deaths per 10,000 persons) or more globally is 1 percent. That would also happen to be catastrophic, come on man, it happens but 99 times out of a 100, chance yeh, probability no. Fine, next time I just won't tell you, I'll keep the info to myself. Dont bother answering attention graving mental midgets like that. Dude has nothing positive to say but is so needy for any type of interaction he comes in here to tell you off... Theres basketball and soccer for people like that. Myself i really like this info and hope to see more soon |
Grief
User ID: 78402315 United States 01/28/2020 01:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Astroshill
(OP) Senior Forum Moderator 01/28/2020 02:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If these two non-functional satellites so much as brush against each other, their presumed trajectories may be altered. Quoting: Grief At 14 km/s there is no brushing. If they touch it will release a huge amount of energy and destroy both of them. The debris will be in a wide array of elliptical orbits that start off with an intersection point at the collision point. They'll also start off generally within the same orbital plane, but spread out over time due to variable precession of the ascending node and other factors. |
Grief
User ID: 78402315 United States 01/28/2020 02:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If these two non-functional satellites so much as brush against each other, their presumed trajectories may be altered. Quoting: Grief At 14 km/s there is no brushing. If they touch it will release a huge amount of energy and destroy both of them. The debris will be in a wide array of elliptical orbits that start off with an intersection point at the collision point. They'll also start off generally within the same orbital plane, but spread out over time due to variable precession of the ascending node and other factors. Didn't something like that happen in the Gravity movie? If the debris field of orbital junk begins moving in different directions, how much of what is up there will be non-functional after, let's say a year? |
Astroshill
(OP) Senior Forum Moderator 01/28/2020 02:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If these two non-functional satellites so much as brush against each other, their presumed trajectories may be altered. Quoting: Grief At 14 km/s there is no brushing. If they touch it will release a huge amount of energy and destroy both of them. The debris will be in a wide array of elliptical orbits that start off with an intersection point at the collision point. They'll also start off generally within the same orbital plane, but spread out over time due to variable precession of the ascending node and other factors. Didn't something like that happen in the Gravity movie? If the debris field of orbital junk begins moving in different directions, how much of what is up there will be non-functional after, let's say a year? It won't be nearly as dramatic as the movie. In reality, the problem is more gradual and insidious. It would result in an increase in orbital debris damage to other satellites, active satellites would need to make additional avoidance maneuvers, and it would contribute to a steady cascade of collisions producing more orbital debris in a feedback loop otherwise known as Kessler syndrome. The movie Gravity tried to depict Kessler syndrome but exaggerated how quickly things would cascade out of control. This would be more akin to the Iridium Cosmos collision which produced well over 1000 tracked pieces of debris in low earth orbit (and no doubt even more smaller untracked pieces). [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)] |
Grief
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Astroshill
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