WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

A dinner, a massage and all of the rest sounds very appealing!

If only I were the OP!

God Bless The OP!

your a moran, go lick a toilet seat dipshit.

26% death rate OUTSIDE CHINA

On Sunday's update, 2 pieces of information will be analyzed and compared to my model.

First one is another study from Imperial College of London:

[link to www.imperial.ac.uk (secure)]


Second one is the data from a self-diagnosed app in Madrid:

[link to translate.google.com (secure)]


The study, based on their models, is not perfect (nothing is, in the early stages of the pandemic we are now) but it is a solid work, and much more reliable then the Madrid app.

However, the Madrid app is also significant, because if covers a good number of people. Still, the margins of error are bigger then the Imperial College study, but in acceptable perimeters, at least for Madrid, from which can be extrapolated to major cities / major regions / provinces that were late in implementing restrictions (like NYC).


It is going to be a long ass update tomorrow, but it will show where we are and when the lock-downs can be lifted.


The update will be posted after Italy's numbers on Sunday are public.

Last Edited by Recollector on 04/04/2020 07:30 AM

Much appreciated DR...look forward to you analysis!

Excellent argumentation! Congrats!

Thanks so much. Really looking forward to this update as well as any update that you do for us. Will this be an overall positive report or are we doomed?

OP,

With regard to this plague, when do you expect the second wave to hit and when do you expect the unsurviveable third wave to hit? You wrote about these waves in the early parts of your thread.

I also read a fascinating article that I think you would be interested in:

We’re not going back to normal

[link to www.technologyreview.com (secure)]

The article makes sense to me, but it may not make sense for you...please let me know what you think.

Again, thanks for everything you've done for us!

No spoilers:)

I have read the article, about a week ago. Lacks intuition. It was a possibility, but not anymore.


As for waves, we will have 2 more, or at least I hope that the governments will understand that they have to make it so we will have 2 more waves, and not only a second one, after the current one we are in.


The numbers of waves depend entirely on the governments.

Last Edited by Recollector on 04/04/2020 03:14 PM

&

Time to Slaughter the Red Dragon – lots of chatter building up everywhere exposing how devious the CCP is and has been for decades. Many in the West (including I) understand this type of thinking does exist but we tend to avoid thinking about it and just move on. Well not anymore. I though I was up to speed on CCP but WOW I was not even close to understanding how entrenched the CCP is in every aspect of global societies and everyone's daily life. This CCP virus and what it has done to economies, small business, the elderly and decent people throughout the entire world and 100% caused by the CCP is unacceptable to just “move on” and don’t think about doing anything about it. I encourage everyone to do their own research and google “CCP true colors”. Devious does not come close to how the CCP works. And don’t think for one minute because you are retired, a school teacher, a dentist, truck driver, laborer, lawyer or pilot the CCP does not affect you. I can absolutely assure you the CCP is very involved in your DAILY activities. One example – your tax dollars go by the millions to fund the WHO (World Health Organization) that answers to the CCP and is also responsible for backing the CCP agenda for delaying disclosure of the CCP virus. You pay taxes = you fund CCP agenda.

Check out the full review of the book at the link below.

More to come from me on this…..

[link to www.amazon.com (secure)]

Last Edited by IdeaMan1624 on 04/04/2020 04:24 PM

I don't get why people are stumped by empty hospitals.


There are multiple reasons why some hospitals are empty, at the start of a pandemic.

I can name a few, like :

1.Most hospitals, are the beginning of a pandemic, will NOT have cases that need hospitalization.

2.Some that do had cases, were most likely poorly equipped to deal with the numbers and/or severity, and those patients were moved to another hospitals, be it military, be it bigger and/or better hospitals or quarantine camps.

3.A number of hospitals in the areas that are not hit hard by the virus, are intentionally kept empty for other patients or for transfers of patients from hospitals that start to get overwhelmed.



But, here is the most important part of those SHIT videos that are promoting the hoax theory : there are thousands of hospitals in pretty much any country with over 20 million people, and filming a couple of hospitals to promote an agenda (the hoax agenda) is aimed at IDIOTS.


Don't be an IDIOT.


Use your brian.


Perhaps it is because you said that the high number of patients would overload the health system ... It seems to me a good reason ... If the pandemic has already exploded in the United States (25K + cases and 1K + deaths), the health system could not, under no circumstances, have empty hospitals. The press is lying, and it's not just about the hospital system. Today it was reported by BBC News that in Ecuador, bodies were being left on the street because the country's funeral system collapsed. Oh really? Does a country with 17 million inhabitants collapse because of 94 bodies? Has anyone ever died in Ecuador ??? This antics is already over the limit.



Maybe if you have read much more carefully, I said that the healthcare systems will be overloaded, but it will start with a number of hospitals first, then slowly moving to the entire system.

The epidemic DID NOT YET EXPLODED in the U.S., but it is about to, next week. What is now might look bad, and it is, but next week you will understand why I still not consider the current U.S. numbers an epidemic explosion.


You can grasp ANYTHING that keep you sane, because it is important not to go suddenly from "looks like its ok" to "OH MY FUCKING GOOD, WE'RE FUCKED!", even if it's a stupid thing like some idiots posting a video from some hospital that is empty.

For fuck sake, there is an EMPTY hospital 20 km away from the epicenter in Romania, which is my hometown. That is a small hospital, about 200 beds, while the 1,300 bed hospital in my hometown (which was put on total lock-down 3 days ago, along metro area) is closed to everyone but covid-19 patients, and it was overloaded with patients.


Atm, the 1,300 bed hospital is having about 500 patients with covid19, everyone else being moved to dozens of other hospitals.


There is still the beginning, and having empty hospitals IS ACTUALLY A FUCKING LOGISTICAL MEASURE.

Having multiple empty hospitals now, when the pandemic starts, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT, because a country can trickle virus patients OR other patients to those hospitals, without risking overloading and mixing patients with covid19 with patients that don't have it.


Does it makes sense to you now WHY there MUST be empty hospitals at the ready, at the start of a fucking pandemic?


Once again. Thank you DP

Have you not heard of all the cancelled surgeries etc? Anything that is deemed non essential has been cancelled to keep hospital beds empty for the growing number of cases that will follow. So no scheduled surgeries if your life doesn't depend on it.
They also increase capacity especially for ICU beds, so that means the hospital could be close to overwhelmed one day and okay again the next because they just got 50 new beds. This is happening in NY right now which is why the news reports are conflicting when they actually aren't.

In the US they are still at the beginning of the pandemic, it will look very different in a week/few weeks depending on the area. If they're smart they will move patients around the country to relieve some hospitals in worse hit areas.

It's already very active in NYC already, the South looks pretty bad too though (Louisiana, Georgia, Florida) and there are a lot of unhealthy people down there so they can't even bet on "only old" people dying. I bet there will be even more severe cases needing hospitalization down there.
We've had enough examples now to show that younger people are badly effected too.

How is this thread not pinned?

The world will end and no one will be able to answer that question.

It is probably the biggest enigma of GLP.

Look at the simulations at the bottom of this Nature article.
Sweden is not closing schools, so they are closer to the do nothing scenario, and will get it over with while other countries might have second waves etc for another year
[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

@OP, what if the european governamets are diminishing the numbers of new cases to have a excuse to open the economy ASAP? At the end, politicians are compulsive liars.

Thanks. Trump was talking yesterday that we must open back up and get people back to work. I assume if he does that that America will be off the charts on devastation. Any commentson how devastating this approach will be. Take care

Well, that’s a somber update and any of us who have been watching since January knows it’s true

My only question, the ramifications of this virus compared to Spanish flu is worse because of population, economy and the fact travel is so easy?

Hey guys I want to give you an update how the situation in Switzerland is.

Unless in the canton Ticino which has a border with Italy (60000 italian workers cross the border everyday), the hospitals are not overrun. We even took some patients from France.

Switzerland has never been in full lockdown mode. For example many construction sites are still open. Non essential factories are still producing with the exeption of canton Ticino.
There is no mask required like in Czech Republic for example, only groups of more than 5 people are banned.

To the situation in Ticino, the federal governement said about 2 weeks ago the health system in Ticino would soon collapse, they said there are not enough ICU beds. The local governement denied it and said that hospitals are still capable to handle the situation. That means everyone who needs ICU will get it.

DR...had to read today's update 3 time to sink in...

I have come to a few conclusions:

1. Your Analysis has been spot on...unfortunately.
2. There is NO way governments can do what they need to do over the next few YEARs to manage this properly.
4. You are correct we need some kind of medical miracle to get out of this inevitable loop.
3. We are FOOKED, and everyone needs to take care of themselves, family unit...plan as if you are on your own.

SIGH......

Last Edited by Joe Preps on 04/05/2020 08:43 AM

Thanks for the update DR.

I wish more people in government positions would acknowledge that they must be considering scenarios like this. I think they are but only as a worse case scenario. I think most governments are banking on a miracle. The longest they delay in stating the truth, and the longer that it takes to make it sink in most people to get used to the idea that normality is over for a good while, the worse the potential outcome is.

Thanks for this. It is pretty much what I have been prepping for.

My Niece is a US Combat Medic stationed in Italy... she says it is a shit-show.

Good grief. May the Lord have mercy.