WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Whilst I really appreciate all the hard work and number crunching you have done concerning this virus, I feel that you have missed out an important component to all of this.

Have you factored in that warmer weather is now here in the Northern Hemisphere and flu viruses don't like the heat.

By the way, this is an important thread so I've Green Pinned it.

Look at UK's death and case numbers from March 23rd and look at Sweden's numbers now. Time will tell if it works for them but UK was following a similar approach at the time. Both do little testing (only symptomatic cases) so have probably a high number of undetected cases. The UK went into lockdown soon after, Sweden does nothing so far. They have a lower population density so their cases might rise a little slower but so far they seem to follow UK's line.

I wonder a little about Sweden's approach, how does it work to isolate the elderly? Most are dependent on outside contact for help. What about nursing homes? Do they quarantine the staff along with them? This is close contact right there, it really makes me wonder.

Also, there have been enough cases of younger people dying by now, some don't even have underlying conditions that explain the deaths. I guess Sweden's fine with that?

Oh and fighting with it longer is actually the goal of most countries, because the general fear is overwhelming the health care systems by having too many cases at once. We've already seen it happen in several countries, not sure why we have to explain it again and again.
If we're lucky we'll have at least some kind of treatment by fall to cope with it better.

DR - thanks for the update. The catch-22 that you’ve concluded seems to be spot on with the available data and reasonable assumptions.

In the US they are telling us the peak will occur in 2 weeks. However, based on what you’ve listed (now and previously) it seems we should expect 4-5 weeks for peak of the first wave.

Three questions:

1. Is the above assumption of 4-5 weeks for US first wave peak a reasonable assumption?

2. After a peak - do you think the rate of infections are actually perceived by the general public as being low enough to convince them to leave their homes?

3. On ZH, there is the following progression curve, in you opinion does this seem generally correct?

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Thank you again for your assessments, research and explanations. Again, I’ll be sharing what I learn to help others prepare.

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You mean like the heat in Florida or tropical places like Singapore? There is still spread going on there, Florida seems to be exploding soon too.
I keep hearing that it's a seasonal virus but it's very new so it may behave differently as we were never affected by it before.
Maybe spread would slow down a little but even when it does it would come back big in September, which gives us just a little more time.

DR Thank You for your update and long summary/projection.

MOST people get way too get caught up in the day to day news to be able to step back and look at the big picture, let alone look forward.

WRT to the "Bigger Picture" when there is the kind of economic chaos that the CV is now causing worldwide the societal stresses often (usually?) causes cracks in societies to open so wide that often WAR later results.

Be safe ... and let us hope that they QUICKLY can:
1) Come up with a good treatment regime that reduces the severity of the disease
2) Come up with a good vaccine

Again ... thank you DR

Fair point.

I think a major factor isn't being provided for here. If people take antivirals as a prophylactic they could receive a much lower viral load and get some immunity happening.

I've not seen anyone doing any modeling taking that into account.

OP,

I read your update and I applaud your idea of "cycling" in order to keep infection rates below five percent. It makes sense and it is noteworthy.

You're right, we're in a Catch 22 and, as usual, the politicians will choose the worst possible option because that's what they always do. They Do Not care about us and they never did. For example, Congress went on vacation during this apocalyptic plague.

In my view, that is as blatant as blatant can be to show us how little they care about us.

There's no doubt in my mind Mad Max is now guaranteed. Are you still expecting that to start in 2-4 weeks?

With regard to war, I'm wondering if China will slip the noose or if they'll receive the punishment that they so richly deserve.

Thanks a lot for sharing your time and talent with us.

Please continue to inform as you see fit.

Godspeed Brother!

This is what I witness in my country as well and it makes me wonder. They've upped ICU beds, built field hospitals all in advance for what's coming. Hospitals are busy but not overwhelmed yet, there is still plenty of space for possible patients. We also took in patients from Italy and France and I can't imagine we did that if they feared the system would be overwhelmed in the next 2 weeks.

The lockdown here is also not as significant as you would think. We do have a strict limit of no more than 2 people being allowed to meet outside but many still disobey that. I think I've seen maybe a handful of people wearing masks in the past 3 weeks. People still go to work if home office is not a possibility although non essential shops and businesses that attract customers were ordered to close. There have been lots of layoffs or reduced work hours because of that so a lot of people are staying home. But those that are not still have to risk infection on overloaded public transportation in the cities and at their workplaces.

They do test very widely though and also track down contacts of positive cases who then are also quarantined and tested so there is a bit more effort to reduce the spread than in the worse affected countries.

To be able to mass produce a vaccine, one needs an economy stable enough to get the raw materials and set up distribution channels.

There will be fortunate pockets. Count yourself as fortunate. I hope it stays that way.

Sadly, the avoiding WAR part is a distant dream.
All the big players are already prepping for the upcoming wars.
Do we start the next WW while our armies are still at 100%, or do we do it later in the hopes the virus fuck the enemy more than it does us?

It's not IF, but WHEN.

Seems to be quite happy in equatorial Brazil & Ecuador. Quite happy in NOLA, South Florida and South Texas. We have been nice and warm in South Texas now for over a month.

This virus is an engineered beast.

we solue you ,OP. well done

i agree with most of that. there might be a point or 2 i see different or mis-understand your thinking, but the consensus is what i see as well.

based on all that, what do you think the governments will do? how long before the ppl will flip,start riots and looting, and disown the governments?






i do think this is the way to go. that small community-based local governments work better. the ppl have more control over the govern. and the resources as well. our fate would not be in the hands of CHINA,or some elite PTB in some far off place.

i think it would take years to get to that point. we would still see a high deathrate. it would b a difficult process to get the ppl back to this level.

not sure if u have looked at this. do u feel a miracle cure or vac is even possable? is this virus so deadly we are in a full ELE?

from much of what we see and have analyzed at GLP, it looks as thou this virus can re-occur in ppl and move from 1 system to another. as the body tries to recover from the virus,it moves to another system and does more damage.delaying death and spreading to more ppl the entire time. these fact lead to a delayed much higher death rate than the governments are reporting.

u are spot on. with the just in time delivery,no country is prepared to lock itself in completely.nor is communities. they aren't ready to grow and process their own food and other needed supplies.

even here in the US,most likely the same for others, the preppers or homesteaders are not fully aware of how much surviving will take. many have an idea of firewood and food. they grow some and produce some of their own electricity even. but they are still able to drive to the store,use gasoline engines<tractors,chainsaws,etc> and are very mobile. it is easy to travel to buy and sell or trade with the local town.

most peppers or homesteaders do not have a clue that they too are only self-efficient because they are tied to the $$ system. they have the ability to buy items that they would need to produce themself in a full collapse.

only the AMISH have the social structure with the large families to be ready. they to have a flaw,however. they rely on metal for wagon wheels and tools. this comes from factories. they too are tied to the outside world,if u will.

If you take out Wuhan, there are supposedly more dead in Michigan than the entire nation of china's 1.4 billion people.

Something is not adding up

u are betting your life on a hope that this virus will act like others. this is not a normal virus as u can see by the actions of world governments.this is a bio-leak,weapon or oher maakes no difference. it is designed or developped with no anti-dote. it also has not mutated yet to a less deadly version.

look to warm climate countries. u will see they have deaths.the virus does not show to be effected by temps.not enuf to stop it. even if temp slowed it down,the % of population now is high enuf that the virus will continue spreading.

Anyone have an opinion on this pandemic vs the 1957/1958 Asian Flu?

Using the US as an example, the Asian flu infected approximately 25% of the population and killed 100,000 (so roughly 200,000 when adjusted to per capita for today's population total). In total it killed 1 to 4 million worldwide.

While this pandemic hasn't played out yet, it seems like the two are on par with each other (in the ballpark).

Yet back then the economy didn't have to shut down and be destroyed, people didn't feel the need to hide under their beds, it wasn't nearly as dramatic as it is today.

Is it because we get too much sensational media? Is this pandemic any worse than the 1957/1958 Asian flu? Doesn't appear so right now but the reaction is off the charts!

Jake, we all know data from China is completely bogus, death toll will probably never be known and the educated guesstimates put it in the very wide bracket between 40.000 to 7,5 million, but no less than 40.000.

Anyone have an opinion on this pandemic vs the 1957/1958 Asian Flu?

Using the US as an example, the Asian flu infected approximately 25% of the population and killed 100,000 (so roughly 200,000 when adjusted to per capita for today's population total). In total it killed 1 to 4 million worldwide.

While this pandemic hasn't played out yet, it seems like the two are on par with each other (in the ballpark).

Yet back then the economy didn't have to shut down and be destroyed, people didn't feel the need to hide under their beds, it wasn't nearly as dramatic as it is today.

Is it because we get too much sensational media? Is this pandemic any worse than the 1957/1958 Asian flu? Doesn't appear so right now but the reaction is off the charts!

i cringe at the word "peak". i wonder how DR ment to use this word. the way i understand things is flattening the curve will blunt this peak. so a peak will not occur in the normal sence. it will not be a point but will extend along a flat plateu line.

whereas a peak to a house roof is triangle shaped,the peak pertaining to the virus is much flatter,more like the roof of your car.

this flatten the curve does a few things. 1 is there is no high point peak. it also extends the high point along a line<time line>. the spike in cases or deaths won't be just a bad day but instead could happen for weeks. this also doubles the length of the graph. so if the chart for the virus would be 2 or 3 months it is now 6 mths.

the US is in a odd spot. we will see spikes in cases in spots like WA,CA,NYC,etc. and then other spots will see a climb. kinda like a domino from 1 area to another. how bad it is depends much on where in the US you are.

we can hope the "kick the can" trick did work to delay things til warmer weather. will it be end of may? not to some areas but others yes. the President said we will see a very bad 2 weeks. what he did not say is those 2 weeks will keep going and not end quickly.

ppl in the US are not staying home enuf yet. as deaths begin to pile up closer to them, more rules and restrictions will b implemented.

what i see is 2 trains on a collision course. 1 is the virus, the other the economy. if u stop 1 train,the other crashes into it. with CHINA offline,we will see shortages more and more. the govern will not be able to hide that much longer.

It was proven like a dozen times that warm weather have minimal effect, if any.


For months now.

u answered your own question with out knowing it. read between the lines. what the govern does is more telling than what they say.

no modeling tells us what? that they have done it with no good answeres. hence,this virus is un-stoppable. the governments want us to think they are smarter than CHINA and will or are finding a magic cure. why didn't CHINA or ITALY find it already? charts do show that CHINA passed the US in education decades ago.

i do not see herd immunity bein a realistic goal. UK wanted to go that route. very quickly they gave it up. did they change course because the dead would pile to fast or because they found herd immunity could not b achieved?

my thinking is there is no immunity. u get this 1 time, it weakens you at the least. the 2nd time, u are not going to fight it off as well. your chance of dying the 2nd time is much higher.

we do not want to get this virus at all. we are not sure there is a full recovery from it.

much worse. times have changed much. we nopw rely on other countries for survival. trucks haul food great distances compared to back then. the disease spreads much faster due to our mobility of flights and shipments of goods. the public lives in cities more than rural areas.less farms and farther apart.

my prediction back early on was 1 billion TOTAL DEAD within 3 years. total dead is not just the virus but includes indirect deaths caused by it. these include shortages of food,medicine,riots,other deaths due to lack of medical care,lack of clean water,etc. i am concerned that my # is low.

I left U.S. out of the update, because it requires a separate analysis, one that is too complicated and time consuming.


The U.S. situations is like Spain in NYC and NY State, like Italy in Louisiana, Cali and Michigan, like France in FL, Mass. and Penn, like the U.K. in Illinois and Texas, and Germany in the rest of the states.


Basically, except NYC, New Jersey, Louisiana, Cali and Michigan, where the outbreaks will be uncontrollable next week, all the other states will have a much easier time...compared to the first 5 areas.


The U.S. will reach the peak of the first wave in stages :NYC will be first, in about 2 weeks, Louisiana, NEw Jersey, Cali and Michigan will take about 3 weeks, and the rest 4-5 weeks.



But I have to repeat, again and again : the virus is not the problem, no mater how many people will die, the humanity will survive.

The problem is that those deaths to be stretched in the next 3 years, or we're fucked big time the moment the governments will lift the lock-downs.


The second wave won't be a wave...it will be a tsunami. We won't make it as a society, and the economy, which barely survived until now, will collapse.


The general public is ignorant. They will NEED to work, so they will choose to BELIEVE the official numbers. There won't be a problem to get people back to work.


The ZH curve is nothing but a figure, doesn't match the reality.
The right-hand side of the curve will be MUCH smoother, and will last much longer then the left-hand side of the curve, almost twice as long.


And that is just ONE WAVE.

People were already popping antivirals for months...this pandemic started while the flu season was in full swing.

The antivirals do absolutely nothing to slow or stop this virus...because it is a new one.

The immune system is the only one that can fight this, and ensure that the body survives and becomes immune.


Best is masks, gloves and disinfection as much as possible, but only to slow the pandemic in the general population, disregarding the individual.


For individuals, best is to avoid any contact, or use best masks available and loads of disinfection at home, work, car, gloves, clothes, etc.

It would seem to me best thing to do since
The death rate is lower the younger you are
0 to 9 yrs = 0, 10 yrs to 40 yrs = 0.2
Would be to ask for volunteers from this age group
To get the infection on purpose thus build up herd immunity.. And thus avert a economic and human
Disaster....

thank you very much for the time, effort and work on this thread. Bleak, but important information.