Godlike Productions - Discussion Forum
Users Online Now: 1,400 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 129,934
Pageviews Today: 349,604Threads Today: 172Posts Today: 4,169
07:35 AM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68

 
Miss Pixie

User ID: 78360744
United Kingdom
01/28/2020 02:16 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Thank you for your hard work . What's your job- are you in maths or science or similar....?

I think there is something about this unfolding of recent events that has many of us feeling "something dark coming" deep in our bones. I've been giving my partner the daily updates and he believes "It's a game-changer. It's already too late, it's all fucked".
Truth is a pathless land - Krishnamurti
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78146241
United States
01/28/2020 02:16 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky
 Quoting: Jake


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.
 Quoting: Jake


Me to jake i think survival is simply going to be pure luck.
No mater your preps
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78219344
United States
01/28/2020 02:16 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
yeah...seems ABOUT RIGHT...UH.
 Quoting: uh 78219344
Lumberghini
I has coronatarditis

User ID: 73568822
United States
01/28/2020 02:19 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
So did we died?
Running list of preps for Coronatardvirus:

-Whisky
-Food
-Water
-Tampons
-Soap
-Comb
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77077368
United States
01/28/2020 02:19 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
yeah...seems ABOUT RIGHT...UH.
 Quoting: uh 78219344

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78219344


I concur, my good fellow.
Arkansas River Bard

User ID: 77129501
United States
01/28/2020 02:20 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I'm impressed this is solid. I will run the numbers myself and see what I get. First-class research, OP.
Arkansas River Bard

I am a carpenter, a paramedic, a mechanic, an artist, an author, and a reluctant pamphleteer for our Great Nation's hoarse voice.

I don't know if I'm bipolar, but Charlie Sheen is bi-winning.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 02:20 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Thank you for your hard work . What's your job- are you in maths or science or similar....?

I think there is something about this unfolding of recent events that has many of us feeling "something dark coming" deep in our bones. I've been giving my partner the daily updates and he believes "It's a game-changer. It's already too late, it's all fucked".
 Quoting: Miss Pixie


Accounting.
Hamburgerwagon

User ID: 65456673
United States
01/28/2020 02:20 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
DOOMTASTIC!
SilverCyprus

User ID: 77123653
01/28/2020 02:20 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
This model uses R0 values based on time frame that the virus was undetected. R0 values will drop once people become aware of the danger.

Last Edited by SilverCyprus on 01/28/2020 02:22 PM
Don Peyote

User ID: 52639522
United States
01/28/2020 02:21 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
That's scary as fuck!
Reality leaves a lot to the imagination... John Lennon
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 02:23 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
This isn't really a model. Just a guess.
 Quoting: SilverCyprus


A guess that was confirmed for 10 days, it's no longer a guess.


But hey, feel free to follow my model, and compare it to the official cases from outside China, since those cases will be reported.

And day by day, see if my "guess" comes to fruition. If it does, it doesn't really matter if it was a lucky guess or not.


What it matter is that it is a working model.
Arkansas River Bard

User ID: 77129501
United States
01/28/2020 02:23 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
R(0)=

β is the transmission rate (number of effective contacts per susceptible host per infected host per unit time) × probability of transmission
S(0) is the population density
v is the recovery rate
μ is the natural mortality rate
γ is the disease-induced mortality rate

Arkansas River Bard

I am a carpenter, a paramedic, a mechanic, an artist, an author, and a reluctant pamphleteer for our Great Nation's hoarse voice.

I don't know if I'm bipolar, but Charlie Sheen is bi-winning.
solarbliss

User ID: 76560363
United States
01/28/2020 02:24 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Call the President demand all chinese fights be stopped
PHONE NUMBERS
Comments: 202-456-1111
Switchboard: 202-456-1414

 Quoting: Jake


bump
BodilessModerator
Senior Forum Moderator

01/28/2020 02:24 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
This model uses R0 values based on time frame that the virus was undetected. R0 values will drop once people become aware of the danger.
 Quoting: SilverCyprus


Have to map that and factor it in

Accurate reporting necessary, China.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 02:25 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
This model uses R0 values based on time frame that the virus was undetected. R0 values will drop once people become aware of the danger.
 Quoting: SilverCyprus


People can be became as aware as you want.


The ones who can STOP this are the governments. They can stop the planes, trains, buses, ships, close borders, quarantine cities.


Now, I ask you...will they do the above by February 3rd?


Because if they don't, the people can be as aware as you want...the people cannot stop the pandemic.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76663305
New Zealand
01/28/2020 02:27 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Thanks OP - 5 stars.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 02:28 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Thank you for the super pin.


Really appreciate it.
2012Portal
2012Portal - Mayan Beyond 2012

User ID: 15022013
Netherlands
01/28/2020 02:28 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Interesting OP.

We can only hope and pray it mutates and kills itself off. Viruses do that. Can also mutate and get more infectious, but often the virus will doe out.

We can hope.

Otherwise, looks pretty dire. Can't see the western world closing borders.
From the love of power to the power of Love - My camera and video gear:
[link to graphicstart.com]
--- --- ---
"Jesus Christ, the Son of God our Savior"
Halcyon Dayz

User ID: 77535748
United States
01/28/2020 02:29 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Remember folks: GLP IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY!!!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77222866
United States
01/28/2020 02:29 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
This model uses R0 values based on time frame that the virus was undetected. R0 values will drop once people become aware of the danger.
 Quoting: SilverCyprus


People can be became as aware as you want.


The ones who can STOP this are the governments. They can stop the planes, trains, buses, ships, close borders, quarantine cities.


Now, I ask you...will they do the above by February 3rd?


Because if they don't, the people can be as aware as you want...the people cannot stop the pandemic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


You know they won't.

Money is all that matters to them.
Ironically if this thing really takes off it will bite them in the ass economically anyway.
Jake

User ID: 77849624
United States
01/28/2020 02:30 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Just so you guys understand the potential of this virus
This is the protocol Paramedics in the Uk are given for

handling suspected cases of Coronavirus.

]They are for handling Level 4 Biohazard contagions.




Not really interesting... Plus a flow chart and updated contagious diseases protocols

\;Dear colleagues
Wuhan Novel Coronavirus: Advice for the NHS in England
You will be aware of the evolving situation in China where, as of 23rd January 2020 it has been reported that around 571 people have been identified with respiratory infections caused by a novel coronavirus.
Most reported cases are at the mild end of the spectrum; with no confirmed cases in the UK.
The severity of the infections ranges from mild symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection (with or without fever) to fulminant pneumonia requiring hospitalisation and advanced respiratory support, and the disease has sadly proved fatal in 17 cases in China. The annual Chinese New Year celebrations are imminent (start 25 January 2020); this typically involves the mass movement of people both within and outside China and may amplify transmission.
At the current time, if the novel coronavirus is seen in the UK it is most likely to be in a traveller who has visited Wuhan City in China. To date, all cases detected outside China, currently 10, are in patients who have recently travelled to Wuhan.
Advice for NHS organisations is as follows:
• It is essential that an accurate travel history is obtained from all patients with acute respiratory infections to help identify potential cases.
• Primary care practices are asked to identify possible cases, isolate them immediately, and seek specialist advice from a microbiologist, virologist or infectious disease physician at your local trust. They are not expected to undertake any clinical assessment or sampling. Guidance for primary care can be found here.
• All acute trusts are expected to assess possible cases of Wuhan novel coronavirus using appropriate isolation facilities. They should review the Public Health England (PHE) guidance and ensure that they have considered how to operationalise this.
• Acute trusts should be prepared to undertake sampling and transport samples to PHE for testing as well as making arrangements for such patients to be identified immediately and isolated according to the PHE guidance, or in discussion with PHE, in home isolation if appropriate.
• If the novel coronavirus is detected, the patient will be transferred to an Airborne High Consequences Infectious Diseases centre. PHE will undertake contact tracing and advise on management as more is known about this infection. Guidance will be updated.
The attached pathway outlines the initial assessment questions to identify a patient who may require isolation and testing. All primary and secondary healthcare providers should make arrangements for such patients to be identified immediately and isolated according to the PHE guidance. The current patient pathway is for assessment in airborne isolation in an acute trust, followed by testing and a period of isolation (at home or in hospital) whilst awaiting the results.
PHE in collaboration with the NHS has published guidance covering the following:
• Initial assessment and investigation of cases
• Infection prevention and control and guidance
• Guidance on diagnostics
• Guidance for primary care

The four key principles to bear in mind in community settings are to:
• Identify possible cases as soon as possible
• Isolate to prevent transmission to other patients and staff
• Avoid direct physical contact unless wearing appropriate personal protective equipment
• Get specialist advice from a local microbiologist, virologist or infectious disease physician at
your local trust

Last Edited by Jake on 01/28/2020 02:49 PM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77894001
United States
01/28/2020 02:30 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Remember folks: GLP IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY!!!
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz


hesright
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 02:32 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Interesting OP.

We can only hope and pray it mutates and kills itself off. Viruses do that. Can also mutate and get more infectious, but often the virus will doe out.

We can hope.

Otherwise, looks pretty dire. Can't see the western world closing borders.
 Quoting: 2012Portal


WHO, CDC, the Chinese CCP...they are all betting on a mutation that will be far less virulent.


But they are betting with our lives, and the chances are like 50-50 that a weaker mutation will occur.

The next mutation might be extremely virulent, and R0 goes to 10 or more. Also a 50-50 chance.


Those in charge are betting on 50-50 odds...with the life of millions.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 43196947
Finland
01/28/2020 02:32 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Any idea how the virus acts/spreads in colder/warmer temperatures or is there any difference?
Psychedelic Mashed Potatoes

User ID: 78110676
United States
01/28/2020 02:32 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Thank you for your hard work . What's your job- are you in maths or science or similar....?

I think there is something about this unfolding of recent events that has many of us feeling "something dark coming" deep in our bones. I've been giving my partner the daily updates and he believes "It's a game-changer. It's already too late, it's all fucked".
 Quoting: Miss Pixie


Accounting.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


doomed
Everything God said is coming to pass. What is left to doubt that Jesus is the Lord?

Corona=crown

BOWANDCROWN.COM
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 02:34 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Any idea how the virus acts/spreads in colder/warmer temperatures or is there any difference?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43196947


I am not an epidemiologist or virologist, or a medic for that matter.

I am an accountant.

Can't answer to your question, sorry.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 02:34 PM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77891221
United States
01/28/2020 02:35 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Prepare your hearts and minds with the most high, repent of our sons because the pestilance is here.

The death rate as the op said is not the major factor.

Society won't function as it does now.

Transportation, food, emergency, medical, banking systems, factories, production, consumerism, etc will grind to a halt if this is allowed to get out of control.

They are testing a person in St Louis right now.

It's in the US.

Our government needs to shut all schools, and start quarantining the major cities with no movement in or out until we can get a hold on this thing while we still can.

Freedom of movement is a killer in a pandemic.

Read up on the great plague of London.
kpow

User ID: 78348454
United States
01/28/2020 02:35 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Catastrophic, it will be. The PTB are not going to do waht is needed. They will not. Too many ulterior motives.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 02:35 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Thank you for your hard work . What's your job- are you in maths or science or similar....?

I think there is something about this unfolding of recent events that has many of us feeling "something dark coming" deep in our bones. I've been giving my partner the daily updates and he believes "It's a game-changer. It's already too late, it's all fucked".
 Quoting: Miss Pixie


Accounting.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


doomed
 Quoting: Psychedelic Mashed Potatoes



Have you seen "The Postman"?

If not, watch it.


But you made me laugh:)

Thanks:)

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 02:37 PM
Elegant Walnut

User ID: 75790457
Canada
01/28/2020 02:36 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
bump for later





GLP