WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence trends in healthy blood donors during the COVID-19 Milan outbreak


Objectives: The Milan metropolitan area in Northern Italy was among the most severely hit by the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. The epidemiological trends of mild COVID-19 are however still unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthy asymptomatic adults, the risk factors, and laboratory correlates.


Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 infection was already circulating in Milan at the outbreak start. Social distancing may have been more effective in younger individuals, and by the end of April 4.4-10.8% of healthy adults had evidence of seroconversion. Asymptomatic infection may affect lipid profile and blood count.

UPDATE (this is going to be a long one) :


France announced their findings on antibody testing, and it is similar with the U.K. and Spain ones.


My model was built on the infection rate only, and it was proven to be accurate.


After last 4 antibody studies (Czech, U.K., Spain and France), my model is again proven to be correct.
These 4 studies are NOT showing the infection rate, they are showing the IMMUNITY/RESISTANCE rate to the virus.

We all know by now that a big chunk of the infected people will not develop antibodies, or will develop the "wrong" kind (the shorter ones) or will develop antibodies, but not enough to be detected by tests, hence, not enough to grant immunity.

Most likely the asymptomatic infected people do not develop immunity/resistance, because their body is not affected enough (hence, they are asymptomatic) to develop antibodies / enough antibodies / the "right" antibodies.


We know that the asymptomatic make up between 40% and 60% of the infected, which means that if around 5% in U.K., Spain and France developed antibodies, the real percentage of infected is actually between 7% and 8%, which is in the range of my model numbers.

Czech with 0.4% with antibodies actually have 0.7% infected rate, making it the least infected country in Europe (and among the least infected in the world).



Ok, so what is the bad news.

Well, first, China did lied about everything, BUT one thing : when the virus started.

If the findings of all those 4 studies are correct, it is virtually impossible for the virus to have been started before December 2019.

I could stretch this to late November, considering that, as any virus, it took some time to spread to a number that delivered enough serious cases to raise alarms.


Now, I am in no way defending China, as you all know. I hate CCP with all my guts.
But I don't see possible that China paid everyone to come up with studies that show a very low infection rate, which makes December as the month when this virus started, ESPECIALLY since those studies prove that the virus originated in China, and not somewhere else.


If the infection rate is indeed between 7-8%, worldwide, (ofc MOST countries are bellow that, and some above), while the immunity/resistance rate is about 60% of those infected, one of the 3 solutions I considered theoretically possible, is removed.

I am talking about cycling the lock-downs with relaxing, every 13 weeks, for 14 cycles in total, to reach a 70% herd immunity/resistance, because a vaccine is most likely (as I said many times) impossible to develop in the next 2 years, if not actually IMPOSSIBLE to develop at all.


The cycling solution, while theoretical, could have been chosen by the governments, in certain conditions. But those conditions are now gone.

We cannot do it in 13 weeks cycles, because if most countries are under 5% immunity/resistance, and it took about 5 months to get there, the cycles will already be too long to sustain.



This leaves only the other 2 options on the table, but the one that SHOULD have been implemented by now (a longer lock-down, until mid-June) is already dead in the water.


Which leaves us with the WORST solution possible : shortening the lock-downs, expose the population to a higher infection rate > higher immunity/resistance rate, and ultimately go back to cycling, but this time dealing with LESS cycles, even if longer ones.


We need 70% herd immunity/resistance, and if only 5% are there after 4 months, we need to get MORE in a shorter time, so the next lock-down hits much later, giving us a longer breathing time before that.



After seeing how China reacted to this virus, virtually locking people down in their homes, and Western governments going almost Nazi on our asses, I know understand why.

They KNOW that this virus is not going to go away, they KNOW that there is no hope for a vaccine in time, or ever, they KNOW that the second wave is coming in fall...and because they KNOW all that, they also KNOW that when fall is coming, we are NOT going to make it without a HIGH number of people that developed immunity/resistance.


Which begs the question : HOW MANY PEOPLE DO THE GOVERNMENTS THINK THAT SHOULD BE IMMUNE/RESISTANT BEFORE FALL, IN ORDER TO MANAGE THE SECOND WAVE?


Statistically, the answer is simple : we need about 15%. So, 10% more in the next 4 months.


To put it in practice is almost impossible. But before I will explain why is almost impossible, and that it can go VERY WRONG, I want to underscore something that I keep saying since the beginning :


The ECONOMY is done, and there is no way to save it. And when I explain why it is almost impossible to put in practice an additional 10% immunity/resistance rate in the next 4 months, you'll see why the economy is done.


If we want an additional 10% in the next 4 months, the world-wide and nation-wide lock-downs CANNOT be back for the next 4 months.

What they chose to do, and it is already clear, is whack-a-mole lock-downs : a city here, a factory there, nurses homes permanent quarantine, severe travel restrictions, limited gathering, social distancing...basically a combination of the Swedish model with the Chinese model.


I am sure most of you already see the problem here, but if not, I will say it : the risk of NOT getting the additional 10% or going WAY above that is sky high.


This is not a plan, that the governments work on. It is the last hurrah of the humanity. It have to go PERFECTLY WELL, so the second wave hits as planned (in mid/late September-early October 2020), the new round of nation-wide lock-downs hits as planned (in October 2020), it will last as planned (until the Winter ends, so March 2021), and most importantly, it will NOT overload the hospitals (between now and mid-September), while IN THE SAME TIME keep the economy alive.


If what they plan goes SLIGHTLY in the wrong direction (being less or more of 10% of the aimed additional percentage of immune/resistant people), the lock-downs will either start much earlier then September, or we will enter the Winter season (with all the seasonal diseases) with an open-wide society to infection BUT with NOT ENOUGH immune/resistant people, so the hospitals will get absolutely unable to deal will ALL kind of patients (not only Covid-19), leading to deaths from the virus AND from not enough bed/ICU capacity for everyone else.


We NEED a break from lock-downs, and we need a significant one. We NEED it until Fall, when the new nation-wide lock-downs will hit, IF the plan goes perfect.



I personally don't see this plan (postponing the second wave till September, adding 10% more immune/resistant people, and the whack-a-mole lock-downs being so few that the economy will cope with) come to fruition.


Another big problem is that we might get the most of those aimed additional 10% much faster, as early as mid-June, which will absolutely trigger nation-wide lock-downs by July, and this will scrap the planned second wave to hit in September, which will scrap all the other parts of the plan.


But even if they manage to pull it off...a lock-down from October 2020 to March 2021 is going to put an end to an already comatose economy...unless a treatment is found by the end of this year.


I hope that they, the governments, have thought this through, and it will work as planned, buying them enough time to find a viable treatment.


We will see , very soon, if the plan works, because I believe that this is what the governments chose to be the path to deal with the pandemic.


Wishful thinking that this virus will weaken, were demolished by the antibody studies : very low rate of gaining immunity/resistance.


Wishful thinking that we will be able to cope with TWICE as many dead and ICU patients in the next 4 months, as we had in the last months...well, I hope to come true, but I am highly skeptical that we will, especially if they will be again clustered in certain areas.


Imagine Madrid or Lombardy with TWICE their previous numbers.


Imagine YOUR city or country with TWICE the current numbers.

I think many areas will going to get hit really really bad, even if most of the country you live in, while having high numbers, won't be as bad.



There are so many things that can go wrong in the next 4 months, and looking at HOW EAGER everyone is opening back up, paired with latest antibody studies and knowing that Fall and Winter will be really bad, for me at least, it became clear as day that the governments aim to raise the rate of immune/resistant people to around 15% until September.


It is going to be rough as hell, even if the plan works, and the coming winter will be HELL.


But if it goes wrong, which is almost certain (too many things have to go PERFECTLY, and I didn't even added the HUMAN factor in the equation), HELL will be here way before Winter.


We will see, in the next 30 days, if their plan works.


POSTED on MAY 14th, 2020.

This has been ongoing for some time already, Heilongjiang and Harbin were mostly in lock down three weeks ago, just not “officially”.

In all fairness the situation never returned to normal.

From the article (less than 50%)

“While the cluster of 34 infections isn’t growing as quickly the outbreak in Wuhan which started the global pandemic last December, China’s swift and powerful reaction reflects its fear of a second wave after it curbed the virus’s spread at great economic and social cost.“

The bold and underlined part is how China tacitly acknowledges its much more informed about the dangers of the virus than anyone else. This is what has driven my concerns about the virus since the beginning. No one in its sound mind takes such drastic measures without a very good reason. We know that the CCP doesn’t care about their people, so if they struggle so much to contain the virus is not because of their people, but because of their economy. I keep wondering what exactly they know that is not being shared.

Thanks to OP we know this virus is highly contagious and we should have done much more to stop it and we did not. But the China’s extreme measure still puzzle me. There’s something that we still don’t know that they do.

People are just going to start shooting government officials, eventually. And I'm not just talking about America.

There will be no more lockdowns... this was it.

In all the Northeast states which extended their lockdowns to the end of the month, people said fuck this shit two weeks ago.

We're gonna have to ride this out for better or worse.

Yeah. I think you are right.
Here in Ohio they just rescinded the “Safer at home” (I’m guessing because of political pressure or inability to enforce) and have instead said its open but you should stay home, limit group gatherings and have left the business restrictions in place.

I’d this virus is what it seems to be then it will rip through the population soon.

DR-
Posted in the main thread. Very interesting. Reposting here in case you didn’t see it.




This article is rather eye-opening considering so many are opening up. All 3 options suck in terms of what would be needed. Let alone the participation of the population needed which would be virtually impossible until the streets are full of dead and by then it would be too late.

“In the first scenario, no mitigation or social-distancing measures were imposed. In every single country, this led to the number of patients requiring treatment in intensive care units (ICUs) quickly and significantly exceeding available capacity. Ultimately, this would result in 7.8 million deaths across the countries included in the analysis, researchers said, and the duration of the epidemic would be almost 200 days in the majority of those nations.‘

The second scenario modeled a rolling cycle of 50-day "mitigation measures" followed by a 30-day period where those measures were relaxed. Analysts defined mitigation measures as strategies that gradually reduced the number of new infections, such as social distancing, hygiene rules, isolating individuals with the virus, school closures and restricting large public events. These measures did not include a total lockdown.

...reduce the R number — the reproduction rate of the virus — to 0.8 in all countries, the study showed.

...after the first relaxation period scientists found the number of patients requiring ICU care would exceed hospital capacities. This would lead to 3.5 million deaths across the 16 countries used in the simulation, with the pandemic lasting around 12 months in high income countries and at least 18 months in other nations.


third scenario, which involved a rolling cycle of stricter "suppression measures" for 50 days followed by a 30-day relaxation period. Suppression measures were defined as those that led to a faster reduction in the number of new infections, achieved by applying strict lockdown measures on top of other mitigation measures.

In the third, most stringent scenario, the R number would be reduced to 0.5 and keep ICU demand within national capacity across all countries, scientists concluded. As more people would remain susceptible to catching the virus at the end of each cycle, however, the pandemic would be prolonged and last for more than 18 months in all countries.

DR-
Posted in the main thread. Very interesting. Reposting here in case you didn’t see it.




This article is rather eye-opening considering so many are opening up. All 3 options suck in terms of what would be needed. Let alone the participation of the population needed which would be virtually impossible until the streets are full of dead and by then it would be too late.

“In the first scenario, no mitigation or social-distancing measures were imposed. In every single country, this led to the number of patients requiring treatment in intensive care units (ICUs) quickly and significantly exceeding available capacity. Ultimately, this would result in 7.8 million deaths across the countries included in the analysis, researchers said, and the duration of the epidemic would be almost 200 days in the majority of those nations.‘

The second scenario modeled a rolling cycle of 50-day "mitigation measures" followed by a 30-day period where those measures were relaxed. Analysts defined mitigation measures as strategies that gradually reduced the number of new infections, such as social distancing, hygiene rules, isolating individuals with the virus, school closures and restricting large public events. These measures did not include a total lockdown.

...reduce the R number — the reproduction rate of the virus — to 0.8 in all countries, the study showed.

...after the first relaxation period scientists found the number of patients requiring ICU care would exceed hospital capacities. This would lead to 3.5 million deaths across the 16 countries used in the simulation, with the pandemic lasting around 12 months in high income countries and at least 18 months in other nations.


third scenario, which involved a rolling cycle of stricter "suppression measures" for 50 days followed by a 30-day relaxation period. Suppression measures were defined as those that led to a faster reduction in the number of new infections, achieved by applying strict lockdown measures on top of other mitigation measures.

In the third, most stringent scenario, the R number would be reduced to 0.5 and keep ICU demand within national capacity across all countries, scientists concluded. As more people would remain susceptible to catching the virus at the end of each cycle, however, the pandemic would be prolonged and last for more than 18 months in all countries.

Everything seems to be shaping up for a second surge around August September here in the UK.

[link to www.bloomberg.com (secure)]

108 milion back in lockdown in china.

The president has thrown the entire country under the bus. He has opted for the Let 'er Rip strategy.

God help us all.

[link to thehill.com (secure)]