WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

This is very disconcerting. Like I said, if is for certain we get that 2nd wave in the US, it will be every man for himself.

DR, what's the consensus of your country and neighboring countries as far preparations and view of the people?

US media is US centric so we don't get much of views and news regarding the rest of the world.

We are expecting the second wave in late October, or at least this is when the government expects to happen.

We relaxed the lock-downs a bit, in the sense that you no longer need papers to go out of home inside your city, but only from traveling between cities.

We still didn't opened bars, restaurants and malls, but we opened small stores, under social distancing rules.

Factories are back online. Office buildings as well. Masks mandatory indoors. Temperature scanning at big grocery stores.

Schools will be closed until September 15th.

As for people, they are split, almost half and half, but even the half that are nothingburgers abide by the rules.


Very few people are actually stupid enough to believe that this virus is a hoax. Biggest protest against the lock-downs barely got 200 people, and it was over in like 3 hours.


The government is saying that they are preparing for the second wave, but nothing specific, just general statements, like buying more PPE for the medical staff, more ventilators, prep certain hospitals for Covid-19 patients only.


One thing that they all say is that if the number of cases is going to rise again, we will go back into lock-down.

But I am not sure that they will actually do it, it's more like a scare tactic (I believe) to keep people aware that lock-downs will be back if they go nuts and simply disregard the measures in place.


Will see.


For Romania, when the second wave hits, it is actually better and cheaper to lock-down, because our healthcare system is not big enough to handle the second wave, testing capacity is acceptable, but tracing is difficult, and the economy is mostly based on commerce and services, instead manufacturing and industry, so the losses, while big, won't affect the economy as much as other countries.


Not to mention that we still have enough population living on the countryside, that can supply the stores with food, even if it won't be enough, we will be far from starving, if the crisis will be that big.

Here in the US we opened up just in time for Memorial Day. Traditionally, it is usually one of the first summer holidays when pools open and large outdoor events occur. Seems like it may be an ironic holiday this year:

We are our own weakness.

Missouri:
[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]

Florida:
[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]

.

.....chick in the black bikini has a mask on.....probably the only one on Daytona Beach

[link to www.news-journalonline.com (secure)]

Thanks for the glimpse of what is going on with your country. It's seems that wherever we are, we have the division of beliefs.

We have 3 day holidays here in the next few months. This weekend, Father's day in June, July 4th, and Labor day September. All big draws for families and get aways.

This next 3 months is the herd immunity experiment for the US. It will be very interesting. We will meet this virus head on and see how bad ass it is.

Difference here is we're not taking temp checks. Just mask wearing and that's even up for debate and social disobedience.

We will see where our train wreck takes us in the fall. Race to the bottom with each state.

Any Sunday update?

Probably not - its just a waiting game now with very little data to help!

Lull before the storm?

Very little data? New travel ban for non-US citizens from Brazil to the US... because cases are exploding, thereby creating data.

On April 20 during a conference call with Putin on coronavirus situation in Russia prof. Chuchalin [link to clever-geek.github.io (secure)] claimed that Pirogov Medical Center [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)] studied availability of antibodies among health stuff of the center who did not have respiratory and infectious diseases and the study showed 35% of medical personnel has antibodies. It means that at least 35% were infected, but asymptomatic and recovered.

In Moscow they recently started mass testing of habitants for antibodies and results as of May 23 show that among first 50 thousand persons tested 12% has antibodies.

Well, given ELISA gives some false positive results (with HIV they could reach 10-15%), the real number may be lower and relatively 30% and 13%, but nevertheless the numbers are far bigger than the percentage of officially reported cases. For the population of Moscow even 13% may give up to 1.6 million persons.

The news you are giving about Chuchalin is already more than a month old and I don't see, or have seen, the pandemic get better in russia. This alone sheds light on the fact that Chuchalin may have spoken too early.

Last Edited by Italiano Deplorevole on 05/25/2020 04:15 AM

Chuchalin spoke just about the situation with antibodies among medical personnel and just at one of medical centers. Anyway, higher percentage may be explained by a higher exposure of medical personnel. As for pandemic development, 10-12% (I mistakenly indicated 13%, sorry) of those with antibodies among tested habitants of Moscow is still too low number to slow it down.

And those are (some of) the reasons why I ban people.


Not because they disagree with me (plenty did, but with arguments), but because they are idiots.

Last Edited by Recollector on 05/25/2020 05:35 AM

I am waiting for the Russian antibody testing to get bigger, because the sample is, atm, very small.


When they tested 40k people in Russia, 14% came back positive for antibodies.

Now they are at 50k, with 12% positive for antibodies.



The tests they use are Russian made, and according to the government, the tests are highly reliable. 95% and 98% sensitivity and specificity, respectively.


While there is still a lot of error, even with such high percentages, the tests are FAR BETTER then the ones used in Stanford study (85% and 90%).


The Russians are going to test many more people, I think they aim to 200k by end of May.

The bigger the sample, the smaller the error in false positives and negatives.


I am more that certain that the results after 200k tests are done will be bellow 7% positive for antibodies, in Russia.


There is no way that they would get a 10% or more, considering that Moscow is twice as infected as the rest of Russia, because Moscow would had over 2.5 million people infected to date, and even if we remove entirely the 60% asymptomatic and 20% mild cases, Moscow would still have 20% of those 2.5 million needing a form of hospitalization.

Which is roughly 500k people in Moscow, people that would present at hospital with Covid-19 symptoms and would be tested.


But as it is right now, Moscow had just around 170k tested positive for Sars Cov 2.


More likely, Moscow is at maybe 10%, which would cut the numbers in half, leaving only 250k needing a form of hospitalization.


While 250k is still bigger then 170k, it is more then acceptable that in the early stages of the pandemic, a lot of people were tested false negative, on top of the much more limited testing capability which was like 2 months ago.

You failed reading incomprehension in school didn't you? His forecast have been spot on for the most part. This country is doomed because of people like you who don't take this serious. I believe the second wave will hit alot sooner than October.

UMN School of Public Health @PublicHealthUMN
1d
.@CIDRAP estimates that only 5% of Minnesotans have been infected with #COVID19 so far and that this rate will increase substantially.

UMN School of Public Health @PublicHealthUMN
1d
“This pandemic will not be over by the end of summer,” @mtosterholm, SPH Regents Professor and director of @CIDRAP. #covid19

AFP news agency @AFP
1m
Ukraine's capital on Monday welcomed passengers into its subway system after more than two months of lockdown imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus

[link to m.dw.com (secure)]

And this is from March.

As an American I love our people (and we are smart), but god there are times we can be stupid!

It's the same globally not just in the US. Unless people are seeing the death and illness up close they aren't too bothered by it. Its just numbers on the news to most people. When the deaths reach a certain number it become a numbing effect - just statistics.

I agree

All of the Countries are opening up their Economies, and people are taking this as a sign that things are going back to normal and not practicing everything that has been done to lessen the effects of Covid-19.

This will come back to haunt them and Us.

You're one of those people that got disappointed that you didn't see a massive body count and a mad Max scenario. Salivating for it to happen.

So you persecute the OP and cry foul because what your hoping for didn't materialize. The OP did his best to warn people and we should be grateful for the forewarning.

He is not a bogus fortune teller but he is a keen observer who analyzed possibilities. Get a life, troll! I for one is still preparing because as observed, people are doing stupid things and it's obvious that death rates and infection rates are being cooked.

[link to www.nbcnews.com (secure)]

You might still have your doomgasm you are looking for.

Almost nobody who wasn't on this thread from the start won't bother to even read OP replies, at least to see where I stand.


Except a single prediction that I made (that the economy is going to be fucked or collapse, no matter what the governments do), all my other predictions were conditioned.


I always said that IF something will happen or not, it will affect the outcome, as it is logical.


My worst-case scenario didn't happened yet, for a simple reason : the worldwide lock-downs and the fear of being infected (induced or not, doesn't matter) in a large part of the population.


But I still say "yet", because the worst-case scenario is still very much in the cards.


What is happening now, with all the relaxing measures and reopening of the economy (what is left of it), will show its results starting mid-June.


I also said that the governments have no other choice but to reopen, and they are betting that the second wave will come in Fall, giving a little bit of time of breathing, between now and October.


But I also said that I don't believe that we will get that breathing time, and the second wave or the second peak of the first wave, which was cut-down by the lock-downs, will start much earlier.


All my predictions were nothing but logical results of "if X happens, Y will happen".


Except, ofc, the economy. No matter what will happen, the economy is pretty much toast.




Will see how it goes.



Still, most people won't bother to read the thread, because it's too big to do it.

Regardless, this thread is for a small number of people, and as long as they are here, and see how things unfold, I will be happy, even if I am wrong or right in what I said.

I'm still following since page 1 and appreciate the mindful insights presented. And will continue to read and think and prepare until we get resolution.

Thanks for your insights OP.

Just can’t believe the masses think it’s ending.

If only 10% (or less) have actually had it then it’s JUST BEGINNING !!