WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Thx OP as always...keep on keeping on!!

Here since page 1
Thank you op

I thank OP again for his clarity of thought and the analysis of information he shares with us. Most people fail to see an analysis for what it is: a reasoned deduction of possible outcomes from a certain situation. OP has given us a range of probable outcomes from a range of ongoing situations, and he has been consistently right within the constraints of the available information.

The worst possible outcomes have not been anything but postponed, which has also been one of the constant points of OP’s line of reasoning. We missed the opportunity to stop this thing in its tracks before February 5th.

Stopping all international and national travel then would have been the only scenario where this would have been avoided. Now the world is just managing the ongoing mess while trying to keep things going.

And now we have other problem that is much more difficult to analyze and predict its exact impact in the outcome: There is so much people that can’t wrap their minds around the seriousness of the situation that prefer to grasp at any idea that gives them hope that there is no real pandemic or that it’s all a hoax. However, even if as few as one in 20 non lethal cases seem to become chronic, with periods of worsening and receding, I think anyone in its sound mind should be aware that we need to avoid being infected at all costs.

In my own country we are achieving the saturation capacity of ICU beds, infection rate is soaring and deaths are steadily increasing daily. And we are just at the beginning of the normal worst respiratory disease season, things are only going to get worse, and many people can’t be bothered to take the minimal precautions.

Same here. Thank you, DR.

Yep, those who have been here since beginning know what OP has stated.

Thanks Luisport, this is what I meant when I said that 1 in 20 of the non fatal cases becomes chronic. It is deeply worrying.

Yes! Agreed.

And I came to the June conclusion too.

Damn it. I just want to get one more order in..... ahhhhh.

Being quasi rural is my only saving grace.

Same

Me too Good job DR

Brazil is getting decimated.

Very sad.

Remember that thread here early on from the alleged insider that was on one of the chans where he said among other things that it would spread first to Italy where they would test out the lockdowns, and then it would spread to Brazil and combine with the local bat viruses and get much worse?

I do remember that and I was able to locate the original 4 chan thread:

[link to yuki.la (secure)]

Thanks OP, as always. Your insights are very welcomed.

Thanks, saves me searching for it.

Wrong in most counts.

1. Lock-downs which isolate us from our 'herd' make disease WORSE!

There's no herd immunity for a disease that induces a weak immune response and mutates frequently.

2. Masks which recycle air and bypass the natural body systems make disease WORSE!

That's only your opinion, in the case of a highly contagious diseases as Covid-19, masks do help to reduce the contagion.

3. Modern medicine is killing and victimizing those with disease for the money$, making disease much, much worse!

That could be said of many other diseases, and it's a sistematic problem, not caused by this outbreak, if anything.

4. Science is for sale and can produce any test results you wish... like an ice cream truck with a little bell selling any flavor you wish.

The tests for diseases, not withstanding your despise and incapacity of understanding how their work, their strenghts and shortcomings,are a useful tool, not perfect, but very useful in trained and caring hands.

5. This thread and the OP have been highly participatory in the entire hoax. You reported me for abusive posts for it?
Get a life besides shilling.

Your belief that the pandemic is a hoax is the result of a flawed mental process, not derivable from evidence.

You ALL, including OP, need to take responsibility for what you have done.

We are very aware of what we are doing: discussing the severity, possible outcomes, and ways to avoid the worst case scenarios of the first pandemic caused by a man manipulated pathogen virus in recorded history.

Last Edited by Red Hot Chilean Pepe on 05/27/2020 12:59 PM

wait, what?....

There's no herd immunity for a disease that induces a weak immune response and mutates frequently.


Question for Red Hot Chilean and/or DR,

DR, has been posting that a gradual increase in heard immunity over time with 15% heard immunity needed by this coming fall for a next possible wave. To get any sort of handle on things, ultimately immunity is to build until we achieve 70% immunity. In addition, I recall reading where DR mentioned possible mutations.

Does the above basically mean that mankind's fight against the Chinese virus is an exercise in futility. Each time it mutates, we are back to square 1.

In doing all we do, at the end of it all, are we simply rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic?

I understand there was recently a new outbreak in China with different symptoms. Is this such a mutation? How many mutations have there been so far?

Sorry for the ramble, but the ramifications of constant mutations are very unnerving.

Yeah, I remember that.

YOU WILL NOT GET THIS FLU UNLESS YOU ARE VITAMIN D DEFICIENT.

The end.

Well, if it's mixing with anything in Brazil, it's probably doing it right now.

Today's Brazil update (SO FAR):

+19,461 new cases
+1,049 new deaths

Most of the population of Brazil lives in high-rise apartments. Easier to spread. And they are sexually active.

Go lick a few door knobs. Troll

I think OP has not yet decided to discard the possibility of Herd immunity, as there is not yet any definitive evidence either against the possibility or in favor. For the moment one can err on the safe side to say that given the current evidence available for prevalence of antibodies to SARS CoV2, we are far from reaching the level of prevalence to think of herd immunity.

On my part, I speculate that some evidence allows to think that at least a fraction of the population will not develop immunity, and even worse, a fraction within this fraction seems to have developed a chronic illness with recurrence of symptoms for over 3 months, that even if not fatal, is greatly detrimental for the sufferers. Under this consideration, herd immunity, in my opinion, is probably not going ever to be attained. I don’t think OP supports this stance, and I stated that is a speculation, subject to change when and if more evidence is produced to either confirm or discard this speculation.

The bottom line is that, even if herd immunity is attainable, we are far from it just yet. If herd immunity is not attainable, may God help us, we are really screwed.

I’m becoming frustrated with such wide ranging findings and recommendations with respects too “opening up” vs “lockdown”.

Here’s an example, is Prof. Gupta and his team completely wrong? After watching this virus spread around the world so quickly and seeing other hard hit places with minimal antibodies (< 10-15%) - I just can’t understand how this recommendation is possible.



Leading UK Epidemiologist: "Pubs, Nightclubs, Restaurants Could Reopen Without Serious Risk"

“In March, Imperial College’s workings suggested Covid-19 had a deaths-to-cases ratio of as high as 1.4%, reducing to 0.66% when allowing for undiagnosed cases.

Prof Gupta’s Oxford team produced a rival model, also in March, speculating as much as 50% of Britain’s population may have already been infected, and suggesting an infection fatality rate as low as 0.1%, which she says would be far lower now”...

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]

Everything depends on how many people in the population have actually had this virus. And this seems a difficult figure to actually work out.

Not everyone who is infected produces antibodies so the antibody test does not pick up some (or many) asymptomatic carriers!

Maybe some infections don’t even develop a viral load that is measurable!

Chances are that herd immunity won't happen just like its relation the common cold (HcoV forms). In that case we will just have to live with it once it has run its course.

Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 05/28/2020 06:24 AM

A rival model. Basically means nobody has a clue what is actually happening. Anyone can take figures and present whatever case they wish.

I'm all for a full reopening. Too much fudging around now. Reopen and let's see what happens.

Totally agree. It has to run its course. We have built the capacity in the NHS. Let us see what happens.

The unbelievable level of mental illness that was lurking just below the surface in such a vast proportion of the population is beyond remarkable.

Given the damage to the economy - we don’t really seem to have a choice. I simply don’t see how we can shut down to even “essential” businesses again. At best we get to keep limping along.

.