WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

I am cautiously optimistic regarding reaching a 15% immunity / resistance until October, when another wave will start regardless of what we do.

Atm we are at around 5-6% worldwide. I believe we need another 10% in the next 3 months. The previous month (May 15th-June 15th) did not added enough to herd immunity, not even 1%, wooldwide.


Sure, India and Brazil are adding more, a dozen states in the U.S. are also adding more, but overall, the immunity rate was under 1% between may 15th to June 15th.


We are witnessing a high increase in cases in certain areas, but still not enough to get to another 10% in the next 3 months.


Again, this is what I believe to be right course : let the virus spread and only counteract with localized lock-downs, quarantines and closures when needed.


Now, about the second wave.


It seems, looking at current data, that the second wave already started, but the current data also point to a temporary resurgence of the first wave. Need until the end of June before we can say if this is the start of the second wave.


IF this is the start of the second wave, it is too early, and it will affect upwards the rate of infection, hence, immunity.


I know that many people (me included) are reserved about immunity for this virus, but our immune system is going to develop immunity, either after a repeated infection, either after first, and it doesn't matter if the immunity is short lived, it is still enough to channel and control the pandemic in most areas.



So, as a conclusion, I am cautiously optimistic about what I BELIEVE to be the right plan to be taken for the next 3 months (let the virus spread until we gain another 10% or so herd immunity, with localized countermeasures where and when needed), but it also seems to be that the second wave is starting, and we cannot control it with localized countermeasures, which will basically scrap what I BELIEVE to be the plan, and we will have to face, again, the same choices :

1.lock-down everything again.

or

2.let the virus spread.



The problem is that IF the second wave is as big as I expect to be (3 times bigger then first) AND it starts now, it matters not if we lock-down or not. The economy will crumble anyway, more then what it did to date, because the disruptions in the workforce, due to the virus, will shut-down huge swaths of the economy, regardless if the governments lock-down or not.


It all depends on the size and timing of the second wave : if it is NOW and will be 3 times bigger then first one, the current, apparently stable situation, will crumble, and it will crumble just before the fall, when a new wave will hit us again...and we will be in a much worse shape then we are now.

Tide pods are so 2017.

DR do you think New Zealand is taking the wrong approach trying to totally eliminate new cases?

Is that why Cuomo called it the "European" virus?

If they manage to put everyone entering in the country in a mandatory 1 month quarantine, they can be an isolated island without the virus, in a world swimming with the virus.


Thing is, it doesn't matter what NZ is doing. Their economy is going to crumble anyway, since they kinda need the rest of the world.

Ah ok thanks for clearing that up....

OP

If we get 15% resistance then its still a long way to 80%.

An additional 65% will mean going through the whole process 6.5 more times.

Could they just go big bang and let it run?

Please, lets not confuse infection rate with immunity, unless you are only talking about the people already infected. Its my understanding that Herd immunity wont occur untill about 70% to 80% of population.

[link to www.scmp.com (secure)]

There may be no immunity against Covid-19, new Wuhan study suggests

Humans may never develop immunity against Covid-19
, according to new research on antibodies by Chinese and American scientists.

Their conclusion was based on a study looking at whether hospital workers in Wuhan who were directly exposed to infected patients at the early stage of the outbreak had developed antibodies. The deadly new disease was first detected in the Chinese city late last year.

At least a quarter of the more than 23,000 samples tested could have been infected with the virus at some stage, according to the scientists. But only 4 per cent had developed antibodies as of April.

“People are unlikely to produce long-lasting protective antibodies against this virus,” the researchers concluded in a non-peer-reviewed paper posted on preprint website medRxiv.org on Tuesday.

Thanks for posting this here also NawtyBits. It’s important we all become aware of this sooner than later.

That other island
Isle of man had eradicate covid locally. 28 days without a case.

Borders shut, not sure how long they can keep that up.

4-6 weeks i think you see a case pop up again even with borders shut.

Lots of talk about local lockdowns. There will be no more major lockdowns in the UK.

[link to www.aboluowang.com (secure)]


Looks like the situation in China is much, much worse than they have said until now.

IANS Tweets
@ians_india
#coronavirus found in #Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market is probably more infectious than that detected in #Wuhan's seafood market, where 1st wave of epidemic in country was detected, given a significant number of cases confirmed in only 4 days in capital city,a virologist said.

I wouldn't be so sure about "no more major lock-downs".


The goal is obviously to do it where and when is needed, on a localized area, and hope it will work.


But if it doesn't, and almost surely it won't, for the second wave, major or even nation-wide lock-down are simply unavoidable, regardless of what people think.


If a nation is facing multiple, random (in time, size and duration), unpredictable outbreaks, the choices are "simple" : continue with localized lock-downs, or do another nation-wide lock-down.


The first choice only seems the better one, but it is actually the worst of the two. The economic disruptions on the workforce, traveling and supply chains will be so unpredictable, with losses that cannot be predicted, and since the localized lock-downs are REACTIVE, virtually all will come TOO LATE, ensuring that the virus not only spreads, but it will take a hell lot longer, until localized lock-downs will make a dent in the size of the contagion.

On the other hand, a nation-wide, planned, lock-down, ensures that the contagion will be hammered in 3-4 weeks (proven by all countries that locked-down), it also ensures that essential services will be much better protected from contagion (since most people will be under lock-down), and not last, ensures that the period needed to reopen will be much shorter.



I don't see, for the second wave, localized lock-down as the solution. It is going to be the FIRST step to be taken, and HOPE that it will work, but if it doesn't (and I fully expect that this will be the case), nation-wide lock-downs are inevitable.


There is no way we can afford, for the second wave, to just let it rip through the population, and whack-a-mole a city here, a factory there, expecting to work in stemming the contagion.


Not going to work.



So, while we all hope that we can do it with localized lock-downs, realistically speaking, most countries won't be able to pull it off, and most countries will lock-down again.

Last Edited by Recollector on 06/18/2020 12:00 PM

DR:

I have been following you since the beginning and understand all of your thoughts. I do have one questions, well, two questions.

Why did you pick October as the date by which you think countries want/need 15% immunity (if it is even possible in light of the post a few posts up that people just aren't developing antibodies)? Why not September? Most grade schools and universities return in the fall in September, wouldn't it be more idea to have reached 15% by September so school could open?

Also, why 15%? I don't think I recall why you chose that number. Why not 10% or 20% Is there something significant about 15% or is it just a number likely to be achieved based on the exponential factor coupled with the various mitigation efforts around the world?

Yes why 15% - maybe the health care systems can just cope with that. But that means repeating the whole process 6.5 more times to get to 80% ?

I am not going to repeat again why I said multiple times.


Please read again the update from May 14th (and my posts after that), to understand why 15%, and why until October.


I am only going to say that it's not going to take a repeat of 6.5 times.


If we get to 15% by fall, we will get another 25% until Spring of 2021 and another 10-15% by Fall 2021, worldwide.


This will put us at 50-55%, before fall of 2021.


If we get that, and avoid spikes, we're good.


But that is only a mathematical approach, that is basically supporting a best case scenario, that doesn't require another round of lock-downs.


If we get MORE then the above, we will lock-down again, with less disruptions, but more severe economically, while also shorter.

If we get less, the pandemic will last until 2022-2023 (depends how less we get each wave), with localized lock-downs and perpetual disruptions, both economic and sanitary.



My numbers are abstract, theoretical, and if we are not going to have them, in a certain timeline and duration, we will suffer either short, massive shocks (economic and sanitary) or perpetual, smaller shocks, for 2 to 3 years.



The numbers I came up with are just a guideline to AVOID the worst case scenarios.

Last Edited by Recollector on 06/18/2020 02:53 PM

Thanks DR

[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]

You May Have Antibodies After Coronavirus Infection. But Not for Long.

It’s a question that has haunted scientists since the pandemic began: Does everyone infected with the virus produce antibodies — and if so, how long do they last?

Not very long, suggests a new study published Thursday in Nature Medicine. Antibodies — protective proteins made in response to an infection — may last only two to three months, especially in people who never showed symptoms while they were infected.

The conclusion does not necessarily mean that these people can be infected a second time, several experts cautioned. Even low levels of powerful neutralizing antibodies may still be protective, as are the immune system’s T cells and B cells.

But the results offer a strong note of caution against the idea of “immunity certificates” for people who have recovered from the illness, the authors suggested.

Antibodies to other coronaviruses, including those that cause SARS and MERS, are thought to last about a year. Scientists had hoped that antibodies to the new virus might last at least as long.


Comment: Remember, SARS-2 is able to cloak itself to avoid T-cells.

Thanks!

Link to the Nature Paper: [link to www.nature.com (secure)]

I don't know if any country has reported ever more cases diagnosed in a single day, but I think it's the first time one does, Brazil today reports 55K new infectios (1.2K deaths). Chile increased the infected count by 31K in one day but that was because of backlogged tests that were updated at once.

The situation has been steadily worsening in Brazil, I really think they are much worse than Italy or Spain ever were.

Maximum of 7% of people in the UK has had the virus.

Do you have a source or is something you have calculated?

This is an interesting development.

It was reported by the BBC via office of national statistics