WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Local lockdowns in UK now getting actively discussed

Flu virus with 'pandemic potential' found in China

A new strain of flu that has the potential to become pandemic has been identified in China by scientists.

It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.

The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.

[link to www.bbc.co.uk (secure)]

put all pigs on lockdown




and maintain 6 hooves apart.

Much better thread, thank you

How does your towns in italy work into this.
Rangeing from 25-70% antibodys.

Local lockdown in UK

Leicester

[link to www.mirror.co.uk (secure)]

My planned 2 weeks getaway (up in the mountains) was cut short because of flooding in the area. They told us to simply pack up and go, so we won't be left stranded.


We'll go back on July 12th, but until then, I am back here.



Been catching up with the news, and well, looks like it goes as I expected to go, but hoped it would not.



Will do an update on Sunday, the catching up with the news won't take long...analyzing the data and apply it to my model will take quite a bit, this is why no update just right now.


This Sunday update will most likely be the biggest to date.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/02/2020 09:59 AM

Flooding is happening worldwide it seems, sorry it cut short your plans.

Indeed news have been flooding, worth noting about events in my country is that (shockingly) the full lockdown of the most affected regions, and a stronger control of it, has cut contagions by a third, but the economic effects are excruciating to most people, so, the catch 22 is the same all over the world.

On the other hand, a very well known, less than 50 y.o. and media attention grabber Chilean congressmen has called more attention due to falling ill with Covid-19 a second time (pcr confirmed) but this time he had to go to the hospital as his symptoms are much stronger. He is now opening calling BS to the “herd immunity” concept. I really think he is one of the “chronic cases”, but he seems convinced he got infected twice. This is important in Chile because of the high profile of this congressman.

Sorry to hear your trip got postponed. Took a trip to the mountains a couple weeks ago and it was much needed. Glad to have you back in the meantime.

DR, sorry about your trip...I am sure it was tough to pack it in early, but am very much looking fwd to your Sunday Spectacular!

Sunday Spectacular...don't like how it sounds, but it might actually be exactly the right term, albeit in the negative sense.


I see so much information that is coming from officials that confirms everything that I have said, weeks or months before they (the officials) are saying.



So much valuable info in the last 6 days that I missed, plus me taking 3-4 more days until Sunday update...that's going to be a lot.





I am thinking of splitting the updates through Friday, Saturday and Sunday, instead of a big ass 5,000 words on Sunday.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/02/2020 03:30 PM

Can't take a day off these days, sucks. Well we really appreciate your insights and you taking the time to sift through the endless info.

Kelly Victory MD @DrKellyVictory
1h
#COVID19 deaths continue to fall, despite an increase in new “cases”. There’s no justification for continued shutdowns, mask mandates, etc. #FactsNotFear #ReturnToNormal.

I think some are in for a shock.

Last Edited by The Gathering Storm on 07/02/2020 05:08 PM

A second wave of coronavirus infections in the UK is "quite a possibility", according to England's deputy chief medical officer.

Dr Jenny Harries said the reimposition of lockdown measures in Leicester, following a local spike in the number of COVID-19 cases, is a "very good lesson" for the rest of the country.

She did not rule out further waves of coronavirus infections across the UK - or even a second peak in the country's overall epidemic - but stressed action would be taken to prevent localised flare-ups from becoming a wider problem.

[link to www.msn.com (secure)]

DR-

Got some more 2 week overviews up at [link to dutchy20.imgbb.com (secure)]

I'll try to check back in a day or two if you want to see any more or would like to see the data specified otherwise, it's mostly copy paste for me right now, so if there are specificic places you want to see data for let me know.

- A dutch person.

5000 words NO please.

Some small updates yes please.

America exponential and buggered....
South America keeps going...
India buggered...
Africa who knows...
China knows...
Europe just waiting for it to hit...

Reported we are at 11 million worldwide. Growing at 1 million every 5 days or so.

It is a very long way to 7.8 thousand million, 7.8 billion.

We are just at the start of this.

I have decided to do a bullet-point update, in order to keep it as short as possible, starting today.


Each bullet-point will then be analyzed in separate posts, that I will make through the next days.


A conclusion will be posted on Sunday.

Thx OP, I look forward to

Update :


1.My model predictions for the evolution of the pandemic, in numbers.


2.Second and third wave.


3.Treatments, vaccines and herd immunity.


4.Virus mutations.


5.New cases and hospitalizations.


6.Economic impact.



I will address all of the above today, by 20:00 GMT, in separate posts.

I am noticing a lot more doctors talking about how the virus is on the way out and that things should now be reopened.

1.My model predictions for the evolution of the pandemic, in numbers.


Since I posted my model, my numbers were significantly bigger then the official confirmed cases, and no wonder that so many people (at start) were quick to dismiss it, based on the huge difference in values.


I believe my model numbers to be accurate, and this was confirmed multiple times since March, by mass testings for Covid-19, mass antibody testings, dozens of studies on the lifespan and types of antibodies, dozens of studies on asymptomatic cases and a truckload of testimonies from many experts in the field.


It is obvious that the real number of infected people, worldwide, is multiple times higher then the confirmed cases, ranging from 6 to 10 times higher for the developed countries, to up to 30-40 times higher for underdeveloped countries.


Overall, when considering that China ( who have 1.4 billion people) is lying big time, India (with another 1.4 billion people) is basically unable to test more then maybe 5% of their cases, Africa (and entire continent with 1.2 billion people) is not even scratching the surface in testing, Indonesia (260+ million people) clearly under-testing and under-reporting, Bangladesh (160 million people) and Pakistan (210 million people) barely testing, we end up with 4.63 BILLION PEOPLE in countries that are testing maybe 3% of the real number of infected people and China, who is testing massively, but reporting easily 50 times less.


My model is showing almost 10% of the world population as being infected, to date. Over 750 million people.

The official confirmed cases are just a bit over 11 million.



The truth is not somewhere in the middle, the truth is much closer to my model numbers.


When factoring in the antibody testing (showing around 5-6% positives), the lifespan of antibodies being just weeks, not months, and the fact that asymptomatic people do not develop antibodies, or they do, but are gone in a matter of weeks, while asymptomatic cases make up at least 60% of the total cases, and are hard to impossible to detect unless mass testing, we easily had at a minimum, 5-6% of the population infected AND an additional 60% applied to the above 5-6% asymptomatic cases that showed no antibodies, but were infected.


Using the results of the testing, be it for Covid-19 or antibodies, the huge number of asymptomatic cases, we have an infection rate in the population between 8-9%.


But the results of testing and studies come almost exclusively from developed nations, and they reflect the reality from those nations.


HALF the world population lives in underdeveloped nations, and many of the developed nations are limited by the testing capacity, some of them are simply lying (China, Japan, Indonesia), so I would say that my model numbers are much closer to reality (750+ million people that were infected to date), compared to the numbers that result from compiling testing and studies data (600-680 million people).




My model was built on multiple waves (at least 3), waves separated by either a natural submission of the virus during warm weather (clearly this is not the case) or artificial submission with lock-downs (clearly this is the case).


Either way, my model did not predicts WHEN the waves will occur, or WHERE, it simply predicts the evolution of the pandemic if the virus is left alone to spread, and what CAN and SHOULD be done to have multiple, but smoother waves, instead few but massive waves of the pandemic.



This is pretty much all for this first point, because the rest is going to be continued on the second point, which talks about the second and third wave.


I want to keep these 2 points separated, as much as possible, even if they are both under the same category : the pandemic evolution.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/03/2020 09:14 AM

2.Second and third wave.


Semantics aside, we are in the beginning of the second wave.


Some will say it's the continuation of the first wave, because the lock-downs but a stop to it, and they might be right.


However, there are significant differences between February-March and now, and not to lose ourselves into stupid definitions, I will talk about the second wave as being the one we are in now, and the third wave as the one that will start in September-October.


When the governments decided to lift the lock-downs, I said 2 main things :

1.It is too early
and
2.The second wave will start in the summer, not fall.


Both have been proven to be true.


Another thing I have said about the second wave is that we will see multiple epicenters, instead one or two, like in the first wave.

We had Wuhan, we had Lombardy, Madrid, New York, etc.


Every country had their epicenter in the first wave. Now, we will have multiple epicenters, and I predicted at least 12 in the U.S. and 15+ in Europe.


We are quickly getting there in the U.S.

Brazil and India are also in the second wave, it is just much bigger then first one, because their first wave was very small and very short, in time. Same for Africa.


Brazil and India have multiple epicenters, Africa too. Europe is going to have the second wave starting sometime end of July.


Brazil, U.S., India and Africa will not reach the peak of the second wave this month, unless hard lock-downs are coming, which will artificially create the peak.


My model, if no hard lock-downs take place, shows the second wave to be 3 to 5 times bigger then the first one, and that was based on the fact that the lock-downs were lifted 1 month earlier.


If anyone remembers, I said that the most optimistic scenario would be a second wave that will infect around 10% additional people (so twice as big as first wave) for a period of 13 weeks, starting with mid-May.


That would ensure that hospitals would not be overwhelmed and a "healthy" ratio of 15% (5% from first wave and 10% from the second wave) of infected people for the third wave.


That 13 week period would see the peak 6.5 weeks after mid-May, which puts the peak of the first wave, in the most optimistic scenario, around early July.


We are already here, and the optimistic scenario is out of the picture.


The worst case scenario was losing control of the pandemic, have a much bigger second wave (3-5 bigger, not twice as big as the first), with a steeper exponential growth compared to first wave, see hospitals over capacity, and see the third wave starting BEFORE the second wave is over.


We are here already. We are way past TWICE the number of infections compared to the first wave, in the U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, Africa.

The peak of this second wave is still 2-3 weeks away, and if no nation-wide lock-downs will occur in the U.S., Brazil and India by the end of July, the peak of the second wave will be pushed to mid-August, we will see over 300k new cases a day by the end of July-beginning of August, if not over 400k cases/day, if Europe goes the same path as the U.S. with reopening.


The start of the third wave will overlap with the end of second wave, and if no nation-wide lock-downs are in place before that, the third wave will be similar or slightly smaller then the second one, but much more devastating, because of the virus mutating before that.


But more on this mutation and why the third wave will be much worse, even if similar or even smaller then second, later on, in point 3 and 4.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/03/2020 09:14 AM

3.Treatments, vaccines and herd immunity.


We have no treatment, and I don't see any treatment to be available for at least 6 more months.


Vaccines are a pipe dream, anyone who thinks that we will have a PROPER vaccine before herd immunity, is basically insane at this point.



Now, herd immunity.


Previously, I said that in order to reach herd immunity, while keeping the healthcare systems above water and have a resemblance of a working economy, we would need 13 cycles of infections, each cycle infecting 5% of the people, and assuming all of the infected gets immunity.


Obviously no one believed that this could work, not even me, because it was simply impossible to have 2+ years of cycled lock-down and reopening.


If we would be able to cope with a massive second and third waves, that would, along the first wave, reach an infection rate of around 55%, and the virus mutating into a strain that would remove asymptomatic cases by the end of this year, we would reach herd immunity next year in May.


That would reduce the number of waves to 4, with the 4th one being similar to the first, and from that point on, the virus will be really a nothingburger.


There are too many things that can go wrong, and frankly, while I see the second and third wave being as big as 3-5 times compared to first, I don't see HOW we are going to cope with this.


The world will not end, but if the second and third wave will be as big as I expect, and will overlap, we are in big trouble.


A lot of influence on the outcome of second and third wave will be the virus mutations.

4.Virus mutations.


I am an accountant, not a medic. When I am analyzing this pandemic, I am looking at numbers, at history of other pandemics and anything that can help me predict how things will evolve.


This virus was bound to mutate, that was a no-brainer.


What numbers help me to see way before any expert in the field of epidemiology will see, is how the new strain will do.


The epidemiologists need a lot more time, a ton of experiments and extensive medical data, before they are certain how a new strain will play in the pandemic.


I don't need that time, or experiments, or extensive medical data. All I need to see is how the numbers CHANGE in a period of 3 to 4 weeks.


The numbers are showing me the following :

1.We are in the second wave and it is going to be at least 3 times bigger then the first.

2.A new strain is already circulating, and it will be predominant by the end of July, as I said a week ago.

3.The new strain is MUCH MORE contagious then the previous ones.

4.The new strain is LESS DEADLY then the previous ones.

5.The new strain is more viral, and the ratio of asymptomatic cases is much smaller then the previous ones.



A week ago, I also said that I expect the asymptomatic cases to disappear by the end of this year. It is when I expect the third wave peak to occur (December 2020-January 2021).


What we are already witnessing, in Brazil, the U.S. and India, clearly shows that this new strain is more contagious (the number of positive tests are hoovering between 15 and 20% of the total tests), it is less deadly (the number of deaths is way lower, even if the deaths are lagging), but more importantly, is that the number of asymptomatic cases is much lower.



Most experts are still showing a high ratio of asymptomatic cases, but they are wrong.

What they see as ASYMPTOMATIC I see as PRE-SYMPTOMATIC.
This is what the numbers show me : we are getting less asymptomatic cases and more pre-symptomatic cases.



The numbers also show me that the new strain have a SMALLER incubation phase. Not much smaller, it is still around 2 weeks, but still smaller then the previous ones.


The numbers also show me that if nation-wide lock-downs are not going to be implemented by August, the new strain have the potential to infect more people and much faster then the previous ones, which, combined with what I believe to be the case that less people will be asymptomatic, will lead to many hospitals to be overwhelmed with patients, both mild cases and critical cases, in August, or even before.



The good side of this new strain is that the infected people will be almost ALL symptomatic, which means they will ALL develop antibodies, which means we will need a shorter time to reach herd immunity.

5.New cases and hospitalizations.


The new strain is both more contagious and more viral then the previous ones, and there is no wonder that we see a higher number of cases and hospitalizations.


By the end of July, the new strain will be the dominant one, and if this is good for reaching herd immunity faster, it's really bad for the healthcare systems.


Looking at the numbers, I predict that the peak of the second wave (if no nation-wide lock-downs) for U.S., Brazil and India to occur sometime at the end of July-beginning of August.


The peak numbers will be massive. Brazil might peak at 70-80k cases. The U.S. might peak at 120k cases. India at 40k. And those are the official cases.


In reality, Brazil will have a peak of around 300k cases, the U.S. around 400k cases and India around 1 million cases.


The hospitalizations will overwhelm hospitals in the epicenters, and many other hospitals in proximity of the epicenters.


This is already happening, but by the end of July will be much worse.


Europe will see the second wave starting by the end of July, and the peak will be around beginning of Semptember.


If no nation-wide lock-downs are implemented in Europe by September, the number of daily cases will surpass 150k by mid-September, and God knows how many in October, when the cold season starts.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/03/2020 11:10 AM

6.Economic impact.


"Must save the economy".



Sadly, and infuriating in the same time, those who lead us, are totally unprepared to save the economy.

They are unable to see that the economy is beyond saving, and the only way to save it, is to CHANGE IT.


We are running out of TIME for this change, a change that we CAN CONTROL, before we no longer can, and whatever change will be (because IT WILL BE) we are going to have to accept it, even if it's 100% be the change nobody wants.



The main problem we face is not how the pandemic affects the economy, is the fact that our dear leaders chose to IGNORE the pandemic and believe that the economy can be saved while playing whack-a-mole with the pandemic.


One thing that I said a week ago is that we are left with solutions that are ALL bad. No matter which solution we chose now, the outcome will be bad.



No matter what we do, be it nation-wide lock-downs, be it localized lock-downs, be it no lock-downs AT ALL, the economic impact will be the same.


It will only differ in length and how the economy will look like AFTER the GREATEST economic depression in human history that we will sadly live through.

Most people can't see the forest.


Doctors are no exception.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/03/2020 10:36 AM