WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

DR, thx for taking the time to share...as upsetting as it is, it IS!

bumping because DR is in the house

This the most disconcerting part, DR. In the first wave, I must say that I didn't know anyone from my circle who has caught the virus.

By June, I certainly have a few who are family or closer friends who has since caught it.

The virus has found a way to infiltrate the masses. It's more prevalent than a few months ago and in a span of a month, it's starting to put the ICUs to its knees in the hot zones.

I'm concerned what we would look like in 2 weeks when there's exponential numbers of sicker people. I believe that we will see major disruptions in every avenue soon.

I think every man for himself still will hold true. Leaders won't step up to the plate. Nothingburgers will keep going as if we're not in a middle not the pandemic.

Those who heed the warnings will do what is right for themselves and their own.

I must say it, I hate that you're right. But-I thank you for sharing your thoughts and analysis. It's given me timelines to keep up with and mentally prepare for the changes that with absolute certainty has come to light.

OP / I wonder how local lockdowns will affect it / limited I would think but may help hospital capacity issues!

DR-
Thank you again for the updates. I appreciate the bulleted approach. So many questions, but my first is, can you give an example of the type of economic changes that would need to be made? Do you mean, for example, moving more online? Or perhaps only local/regional economies may exist within regions/communities that have banned together in order to survive?

Just trying to understand the overall ramifications of what you have stated.

Thanks-

End of capitalism?

Agreed.

You are appreciated.

based on nyc official data an an infection rate in new yorks between 15-25% hospitalization rates are between 2.5-4.5%.

[link to www1.nyc.gov (secure)]

the big question is why dont we see dead people all over the 3rd world, namely most of africa, SE asia and remote areas of south america?

the only plausible explanation based on DR`s findings is that the severity of the disease decresd drastically. i reckon the hospitalization rate of this wave is not even 1% we will see by the end of the july but its possible its even less than 0.1%.

everybody has a phone in india, we should be seeing flocks of dead indians all over them steets even at 1% rate.

the other plausible explanation is that the infection rate is much less than we think.

DR-

You are an excellent communicator. Thank you so much for your clearly organized information. I sincerely appreciate you sharing your findings with all of us.

I’d like to hear more on how you think the economy will change? Are you thinking it will be a totally cashless society (all digital currency)? Or perhaps basic income credit because so many jobs will be gone?

Thanks again for all you do!

Largely depends on when such lock-downs will take place, as well as how many people will abide to.


Anything less then a hard lock-down that is taken early, will not have any effect on hospitals being less overwhelmed for at least 3 weeks.


Basically, the earlier the lock-down is, and the hardest the lock-down is, the shorter the period of time before hospitals will see a decrease in hospitalizations.


The timing and the severity of the lock-down is the key.

To answer how the economy should change or how it will change, I only have a general idea.


End of capitalism, no. More like end of corporatism and return to capitalism.


More of the economy going online...no, not a solution. We should have less, MUCH LESS of the economy online.


They key to the change is jobs and wages, and this means a return to nation-based economies, less online economy (means more jobs), far less finance jobs, a restructuring of wages (much less difference between a CEO's salary and the lowest paid member of a company).



What I see as a solution is national economies based on production and manufacturing, extraction of goods, commerce and services, finance, etc. that have at least 70% of the jobs and benefits for the nations, and maximum 30% outsourced.


However, this can only work in a global trade environment and a global equivalence in power purchase, so there won't be any big discrepancies that would lead, in time, to more jobs being outsourced in nations with cheap labor.



Whether this or other economic restructuring will be the solution, it's going to be a monumental task, almost impossible to believe to be possible at this moment.



I think that the virus will make what seems impossible today, to be possible tomorrow.



Including, well...world peace, and other things that seems impossible today.


Interesting times we live in.

Thanks DR.
Agree. Certainly interesting times.
We can only hope that after all the suffering and loss, that mankind will somehow be humbled and realize that we are all one.

Thanks for the update DR.

wishful thinking...before such restructuring takes place...war and possibly massive genocide will occur...

Too many communist nations in the world trying to force the abdication of belief in God, for there to be world peace under any circumstances.

Thanks DR...your analysis of the numbers has proved insightful since your original post. Your updates are welcome information that just seem to ring with truth, more truth than any 'trusted' media 'source' has reported. In my 'opinion', expanding understandings of this multifaceted virus and tangential wonderings from alleged 'experts' AND admitted 'non-experts' does not lessen the reality of the data. To the contrary. The more eyes on this moving target, the better. Keep after it, much appreciated.

From my point of view, we're in the early stages of MAD MAX.

I fully expect economic disintegration to begin in September and a balls out social disintegration will be realized in November. Heading into December this country as we once knew it, will be unrecognizable.

"My life fades, the vision dims. All that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos, ruined dreams, this wasted land. But most of all, I remember the road warrior, the man we called Max.

Their world crumbled. Cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white-line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed."


MAD MAX

Outbreak
2nd wave June+
3rd wave Christmas

Add Bubonic Plague in Mongolia, bordering China.
Add Israel being attacked by Iran
Add China India War
Add Venezuela
Add US Soil War

Wait for debris field or a deep impact

Only thing left other then Anti a heist arriving on the scene

DR,

I am so sorry your mountain trip was canceled! Goodness knows you deserve a break! But I'm also glad you didn't get stranded up there with the flooding, and selfishly I'm glad you are back here where you belong. Lol.

Thank you for today's update. I look forward to reading the rest of your updates this weekend.

DR, anything for today?

Like

DR what do you think?

When looking at the main Covid thread, and see how many people STILL focusing on the death rate of the virus, it only reinforces my prediction that this virus, with a tremendous help of human stupidity, is going to K.O. the society by the end of this year.


Politicians also have the same wrong approach, looking at the death rate of the virus itself, unable to project the impact of what the number of OVERALL deaths if the hospitals are full.



Long time ago, in the first weeks of this thread, I said multiple times that what we need the virus to mutate into a more deadly and less contagious strain, and the worst case scenario would be a less deadly but more contagious strain, if we want to avoid a nightmare.


The new strain is more contagious and less deadly, and I predicted that by the end of July-beginning of August, this new strain will be the dominant one.


This is the nightmare that we wanted to avoid, but apparently, someone or something thinks otherwise.



Many here on this thread understand perfectly what I mean when I say that the virus, if more contagious and less deadly, will actually cause up to 10 times more deaths then if the virus is more deadly, but less contagious.


For those who still don't understand, I will use my city as an example, because it is among the highest rated hospitals in Romania, with a bed capacity that is similar to Germany, which is the EU country with most hospital beds per 1,000 people.



My city hospital have a 1,300 bed capacity, and serves almost 160,000 people, which means it have a 8.2 beds per 1,000 people.


At any given time, the hospital is roughly 60-70% full, which means that around 800 beds are always occupied, with 500 beds unoccupied.


The Chinese virus strikes my city.


Let's see what will happen, using 2 scenarios : a highly contagious and less deadly vs a less contagious and more deadly virus.


I am going to assume that the hospital will not be moving patients to other hospitals, and all patients, covid or not, will be served by the hospital.


I will use a 2% death rate and a 10% hospitalization rate, which is what was in the first wave, a 2 week hospitalization period as a median value, like in the first wave, and a linear (to keep it simple) infection rate of 0.1% / day.


So, we got 160 cases / day, with 16 of them hospitalized, for 2 weeks.

The 500 extra beds can handle 35 patients / day, for 2 weeks.

After 14 days, 224 beds will be occupied by Covid patients.


Now, if he infection rate is linear, the hospital can easily deal with the input of patients. But the infection rate is not linear, and it was proven that if lock-downs are not implemented, it doubles every 5 days, or every 10 days, in the best case scenario.

In 10 days, the infection rate goes to 0.2%, which means 320 cases / day , with 32 being hospitalized.

Also, after the first 10 days, 160 Covid patients are already hospitalized, and in the next 4 days, 128 more patients will be hospitalized.


After 14 days, 288 beds will be occupied with Covid patients.

Of those 288 patients, 2% will die, which is 5-6 people.


What will happen in the next 2 weeks : in 10 days, 320 beds will be occupied by Covid patients, the infection rate doubles to 0.4% (640 new cases, with 64 hospitalized), and for the next 4 days, an additional 256 patients will need hospitalization.


Now we have a big problem : we have 500 beds and we need to hospitalize 585 patients.

Of those 500 hospitalized, 2% will die, which is 10 people...but how many of the 85 that need hospitalization, but can't have it, will die?

Whatever the answer, those will be extra deaths from the virus AND lack of healthcare, but for the sake of argument, 2% will die from the virus and 10% because they don't have access to medical care.

That would be another 10 people, for a total of 20 deaths.

And this is after A SINGLE MONTH, with an infection rate of 0.1% that doubles every 10 days, which is pretty much what happened AFTER 3 weeks of lock-downs.



The new strain is believed to be 3 to 6 times more contagious, and I was personally expecting the second wave to be 3 to 5 times bigger then the first.


In the case of my city, a second wave that reaches 0.3% infection rate after a couple weeks, so 480 cases / day, of which 48 need hospitalization, in 10 days we will ran out of hospital beds.


The death rate drops 3 times, from 2% to 0.6%.


In 1 month, we would face 14,400 cases, of which 1,440 need hospitalization, but only 1,000 will have access to healthcare.

0.6% of those 1,000 hospitalized will die directly from the virus, which is 6 people...but how many of the 440 that need hospitalization, but can't have it, will die?


Again, for the sake of argument, 0.6% of them will die from the virus and 10% because of lack of medical care.

And that is another 46 people, for a total of 52 dead.



As you can see, if the virus is 3 times more contagious and 3 times less deadly, with a constant hospitalization rate, in the first case (less contagious, more deadly) we will end up with 20 dead, and in the second case (more contagious, less deadly) we will end up with 52 dead.


We can play with the death rate all day long, the matter of the fact is that the death rate from the virus itself is IRRELEVANT for the big picture.



In the case of this virus, the Chinese virus, the MORE DEADLY the virus is, the LESS DEAD people we will have, and the MORE CONTAGIOUS the virus is, the MORE DEAD people we will have.



A second round of nation-wide lock-downs is unavoidable, and I see it in the U.S. no late then mid-August, and for Europe, no late then mid-September.


Even if the infection rate is like 1% (which is HUGE, but VERY POSSIBLE, if no lock-downs in this second wave), and the death rate from the virus to be ZERO (no one dies from the virus as long as it have access to medical care) it would take 160 DAYS for my city to be infected, but in those 160 days, the number of dead would be massive, well over 10,000 dead.


The writing on the wall is crystal-clear to me : the second round of nation-wide lock-downs is inevitable, and it will be before September in the U.S., and before October in Europe.

And even those dates are highly optimistic.


I think we can all agree what will this mean for the economy and the future of our civilization.


I am not arguing for or against lock-downs.


I am simply presenting a number-based, highly probable scenarios, where lock-downs prevent a massive amount of deaths, but destroy the economy, or where we have a massive amount of deaths, and the economy is still destroyed, albeit not as much.


The dreamers may think that localized lock-downs might be the middle path, saving lives and the economy, as much as possible...the problem is that the new strain is so highly contagious, while STILL presenting a 2 week+ incubation period, the localized lock-downs will come in TOO LATE, and we will virtually need to lock-down so many cities and areas, that we might actually end up WORSE then a nation-wide lock-down.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/05/2020 07:43 AM

First, the guy is a know leftist, and while I agree with many of its principles and ideas (I have been following him for years in the early 2000's), whenever I see ANYONE having a political approach to a MEDICAL ISSUE, I dismiss it.


Is it possible that what he is saying to be true?


Yes.


DOES IT MATTER?


NO.





It matter not if this is a planned global economic collapse, or redistribution of wealth, or taking down Trump, or an actual, deadly and aggressive pandemic.


The end result is the same : we're fucked.



The economy was bound to come to a crash, at some point. The virus just made it come earlier, be it a planned or non-planned event.


People are losing time arguing on things that have no effect on the outcome, asking questions like :

Who did it? Why? What is the end goal? Is it real? Is it not? Are they targeting Trump? Is China taking over?


All these questions are completely useless, because there are multiple answers, and except wasting time, we won't get anything trying to find THE REAL answer...because we won't find THE REAL answer, only the answer that SUITS our own beliefs.


I am trying, and largely succeeding in AVOIDING to ask such questions, AVOIDING to look at the CAUSE, and only focus on the EFFECT...because the EFFECT is what matters.


I cannot control the cause, I cannot control the effect either.


But I can absolutely prepare much better if I focus on the EFFECT, which is REAL and PALPABLE, instead losing time focusing on the CAUSE, which nobody knows it and it have ZERO impact on my preps.

I wanted your confirmation, thx

DR you will never know how much a stranger on the other side of the world truly appreciates and respects your time and dedication for these words. As a trained epidemiologists/biostatistician, I am exhausted and wore out trying to explain the numbers along with the gross fallacy of focusing on the death rate in conjunction with the narrow view of the respiratory issues being all there is to be concerned about.

You gave me back some sanity today. Thank you so very much. Please be well and stay safe.