WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Thanks, that was going to happen sooner or later in Spain.

[link to youtu.be (secure)]


From the perspective that herd immunity is lower at around 15-20% (Merritt's theory) due to innate immunity (t cells) and previous exposure to (other?)coronoviruses with some info regarding seasonal variation re country curves.....scientific analysis of lockdown vs. no lockdown


IMO worth watching for adding this perspective to overall info regarding COVID and world impact/decisions about management.

All discussion welcome! : ) :hf:

Thanks for the update. I read the same news on ANSA and found other details.
[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]
One in particular: "Catalunia reported 816 new positive cases since yesterday."
[...]
"The area of Barcelona registered a growth of new cases four times bigger in the last 12 days"




4X new cases... Holy shit...

I guess this is one of the "new epicenters/clusters" DR predicted with his model.

Last Edited by Leonero on 07/12/2020 02:54 PM

wanted to bring this post over casse someone doesn't see it on the main thread:

THIS! ^^^ (the part in red).
It seems something people (and even government) don't take into account.
Almost two months in total lockdown and now my country is paying the price for not doing a national lockdown in the early stages of pandemic.
When hospitals gone over full capacity, all kind of diagnosis, prevention and even some surgical operations were delayed.

Many cancer patients couldn't go to hospitals to take chemotherapy (for two interconnected reasons: hospitals at full capacity / full of Covid-19 positive cases... Truly deadly situation for immunodepressed patients).

Many organ transplants were delayed.

All appointments for prevention/diagnosis (breast cancer, skin cancer, diabetes, etc) were delayed and now experts worry that we could face a spike of those diseases.

At some point, even the reserves of blood started to lower.

Patients hospitalized for other reasons before or in the early stage of the pandemic, became positive after being infected by doctors, nurses or visitors.

Well.. The only positive data is the one regarding car accidents. Thanks to the lockdown, number of car accidents dramatically decreased.

BUT we are still paying the effects of a lockdown imposed too late...

Thanks Jazz - missed it even though I am on there a lot.

Reuters @Reuters
46s
California backtracks to shut down bars and ban indoor restaurant dining statewide. Churches, gyms and hair salons will close in the hardest-hit counties

Considering this impressive evidence on how contagious the virus is, in spite of measures taken, one tends to think that the only solution is really aware and careful people taking all posible measures, and then some more.

The Hordes of people without a care in the world are doomed to get the disease.

[link to www.nzherald.co.nz (secure)]

DR's predictions becoming reality...again. Here come the city/county/state lockdowns...

This has subsequently changed. All counties have been shut down.

[link to www.sfchronicle.com (secure)]

Full UK lockdown coming September-October?

[link to www.theguardian.com (secure)]

Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests

People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds.

In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined.

Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.

Could a few of you report in with what yours supermarket's are like , as in shelves restocked or still having trouble getting some/most goods ?
Just asking because I believe we will be going through it agin very soon and just curious as to what to expect .Any information would be epreciated.
Thanks in advance

DT posted this in the main thread.

I posted last night at the Covid thread.

I'm in So Cal and we went into closures of most businesses again.

I went out to top up some items. Our Sam's Club was missing a lot. Paper goods gone again. Produce at best about 90% gone. Seafood and meat about 50% and rationed.

Media black out. Farm workers are more than likely sick. Fruits are not being picked. Fruits and veggies are low grade at the moment.

Anyway, here are the pictures I took. Something is off because in late May-June our stores are running well and no more shortages.

[link to imgur.com]

Impressively empty shelves, was the store in any kind of particular condition? (Remodeling, season change, closing?) because if not, WOW!

That is crazy, wow. Thanks for posting.

I'm also in socal, LA area. I had gone last week to my local Ralphs and I noticed all paper towels were gone, all rubbing alcohol was still gone (and has been since March), TP was very low and still very expensive, canned vegetables and pasta were sparse.

RedHot,

No remodeling. It went through a remodel early in the year.

The produce fridge was a new install from the remodel. It was full blast air but nothing inside.

Like I said, late May- June everything was back.

Vegz, I'm in the I.E.

I started to notice the fruits were low grade two weeks ago. There are lots of canned goods and grains.

It's the perishables that is disconcerting.

Venture out if you can. Just to see if that's happening in your neck of the woods.

Something is off in the So Cal agriculture. El Centro has an outbreak. Could be a culprit.

Thanks for the answer, this is really disconcerting.

I was in 2 stores in Santa Cruz. They were fully stocked with vegetables and proeuc. I was able to get disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer. Add I grabbed another 2 bags of King Arthur bread flour.

We'll see how everything pans out. Could be small regional JIT issues.

I concur, Santa Cruz the missing items in March and April are on the shelves i.e hand sanitizer a and cleaning products.

It's the perishables and paper products that are more in shortage. Shelf stable items are ok-rice, grains, canned items.

I'm just sharing. Grow the garden and take advantage of the weather. If the farming community is sick, we are in for an awakening

Reporting from rural northern California, as of 07/13:

Food Maxx and Costco: Well-stocked with everything and no limitations on items.

Our local cases have been increasing a lot lately.

I have a little inside information for you folks here that would not be appreciated by the GLP forum at-large.

You know how people are always posting about double-counting results, and counties working the data to over-report cases?
Well, due to my occupation I can tell you with certainty that the opposite of that is happening locally; we are under-reporting cases and leaving some confirmed cases off the official tally altogether.
We still have no deaths and only one hospitalization [in my county], thank goodness--but even in crazy Kalifornistan, we're fudging the data to reflect a slower increase than is actually occurring.

Not sure - Area lockdowns as cases rise. They want it to run...

[link to www.psychcongress.com (secure)]
Naltrexone and covid

From Oregon:

Everything looks relatively stocked.

There are holes in the baking isle (cake mixes, brownie mixes, frostings). Not as bad as 1.5 months ago, but not to the brim either. The flour was wiped out about a month ago, but you can get it now, but they are not packed deep on the shelf (only 1 to 2 layers deep}.

Pasta and sauce are about the same as the baking isle.

Canned goods are in stock at Winco with no apparent issues.

Fresh veggies and meat are in good supply, but prices have been going up.

TP is in stock, just maybe not the brand you like.

Haven't seen any issue with frozen goods (like ice cream or microwave dinners).

I need to purchase a specialty bread due to food allergies and the store that normally carries it will be discontinuing it due to "supply chain issues". So if possible, stock up on any specialty items you may need. They would most likely get cut in favor or items that are more plentiful.

Thank you for the report and pics!

it's a sanctuary city, and lib state outbreak

Sam's on the Front Range is fairly well stocked, but the rows in the center of the store seems like they took 2 or 3 out and spread the rest to fill the space.

Paper products are there, meat is there but expensive.

On the West Coast, near Sacramento, products in Sam's are sparse and basic items, like bread, are out.

Not sure why there's such disparity between different locations of the same store corporation.

July 15th, 2020.

Time for a new update.


First, my predictions about the U.S. reopening way too early, with an increase in pandemic spread (cases, hospitalizations, ICU usage) that will start to be seen roughly 4 to 6 weeks after May 15th, were proven to be on point.


The U.S. resurgence of the pandemic (I call it the second wave) started roughly at the end of June, which is 5 weeks after May 15th.


In the last 3 weeks (last week of June and first 2 weeks of July), the number of cases, hospitalizations and ICU usage in a number of areas of the U.S. simply exploded.

No need for numbers, we all see how the pandemic is going in Texas, Florida, California and Arizona.


Another prediction I made is that by the end of July - beginning of August, the resurgence of the pandemic (second wave) will get much worse, and this is what we are seeing now, with several more states at the point of exploding in cases : Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Ohio, Nevada and Oklahoma.


Overall, I expected at least 12 epicenters in the U.S., and if my projections are correct, by the end of July - beginning of August, at least 13 states in the U.S. will have 1 to 2 epicenters each.


Time will tell, it's only 2 to 3 weeks left until my projections will be proven right or wrong.



As for Brazil, there isn't much left to say. Two weeks ago I said it will get worse, and it got worse. And will continue on the same path for another 2-3 weeks, when I expect Brazil to plateau.

How long will the plateau last, I have no idea, at this very moment, but it will last a good while.



Europe.


From the beginning I said it is very complicated to predict the pandemic evolution in Europe, because the differences between Europe and the U.S. or Brazil are massive.


However, I still expect Europe to see the second wave starting sometime in the next 3 weeks, I still expect multiple epicenters (at least 16) to be established by the end of August.


The U.S. and Europe reopened in same time table, around mid-May, but while the U.S. reopened at breaking neck speed (quickly going from Phase 1 to 4, because "muh money"), Europe did not. Most European countries are in Phase 2 and 3.

The restrictions in Europe are actually observed and enforced, on a large scale. The mask wearing in Europe is much more spread compared to the U.S. or Brazil. The limitations on tourism and travel are generally respected by the businesses and population.


Sure, there are exceptions, but generally speaking, the Europeans, at least until recently, did abide by the rules.


The reasons above is what made me put the resurgence of the pandemic in Europe 8 to 10 weeks after reopening, which puts the date of resurgence between mid to end of July.


We're on July 15th now, so the second wave is about to start in Europe, but as I said, it is very difficult to predict it, because of how different are the policies in the countries that are on the continent.


My model still predicts the start of the resurgence in Europe in the next 2 weeks.


I believe that Europe will react swiftly to the resurgence, and looking at how quick were the Spanish and the U.K. governments in locking-down certain cities and areas, I expect the same to happen in the rest of Europe.


The resurgence in Europe will play differently from the U.S. Europe will see a solid increase in cases by September, but not as bad as the U.S. is seeing right now.

However, I expect to be big enough to justify large scale lock-downs in Europe by mid-October.



Moderna's vaccine, vaccines in general, herd immunity and the new strain.


I wish good luck to Moderna and other companies that are working on vaccines right now, but I am afraid they are pissing against the wind.


A vaccine against coronaviruses is virtually impossible to create. The current vaccines against coronaviruses are ineffective. A vaccine against a NOVEL coronavirus is a dream pipe.


The best case scenario, when everything goes perfect, we might have a vaccine against sars-cov-2 next Summer. Obviously, it will be ineffective (10%, MAYBE 20% effective), the mass scale production AND vaccination of the general population will take AT LEAST an additional 6 months.


Herd immunity, while unclear if it was possible or not, is now pretty much a done deal : it's off the table. Not enough antibodies and their lifespan is short.


The new strain, that is becoming dominant in the U.S., and is beginning to affect Europe now, is highly, HIGHLY contagious.

Masks won't do shit against the spread, BUT will do against viral load, which is directly related to the severity of the symptoms, hence, the hospitalizations and ICU usage.


The general population is fed up with the pandemic, some think it's a hoax, some think the virus is weak, some think only old people will die...but that is not the actual problem.


The actual problem is that the general population is ADAMANT against a new round of lock-downs, and their SYMBOL of resistance is ... NOT WEARING A MASK.




Since the begging of this thread I said that we, the people, will be the ones that can make or break this virus, and I was absolutely sure that people WILL MESS IT UP, that they are uncontrollable, they are not disciplined enough in the Western societies, and because of that, the pandemic will be devastating.


I have also said that I expect the second round of lock-downs to take place when the pandemic will be out of control, and the politicians, being the spineless weasels that they are, will LET THE VIRUS run wild in the second wave, and do so much damage, that the population will ASK for the second round lock-downs, hence, whatever will happen with the economy and the society, will be blamed on the virus AND the population being stubborn and not abiding by the rules of the pandemic.


This is clearly happening now in the U.S., and by mid-August, I expect massive lock-downs in the U.S.


But I might be optimistic, and they will STILL not lock-down in August, but come September, they will have to.



The critical period is the next 3 weeks, and the countries to watch are the U.S. and Brazil. The U.S., to see how they react, because this is how Europe and the rest of the world will copy, and Brazil, to see how things will look if a country is adamant against lock-downs.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/15/2020 05:48 AM