| Users Online Now: 1,740 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 31,241 | |
| Pageviews Today: 47,751 | Threads Today: 28 | Posts Today: 255 |
| 12:24 AM | ||
| Users Online Now: 1,740 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 31,241 | |
| Pageviews Today: 47,751 | Threads Today: 28 | Posts Today: 255 |
| 12:24 AM | ||
WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month | |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508  United Kingdom07/16/2020 07:00 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi DR, Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79128165 Thanks for all you do. What do you make of the infection rate in Texas seeing 10k cases a day, but the hospitalization rate plateauing, and not going up. What you have said previously makes sense to me--this being a more contagious, less fatal strain--causing the hospitals to reach capacity. But here in Texas, the hospitalizations don't seem to be going up any longer. I can't wrap my head around it. Do you think we have already experienced the uptick in cases due to the 4th of July? Thanks You can't look at what happens in 2-3 days, and projecting in the future. There are days with less cases and higher hospitalization rate, days with more cases and less hospitalized rate, days with more deaths or lower deaths, more or less ICU patients, more pre-symptomatic or less, etc., and let's not forget, that the information that comes to light is not even close to reality. Have you thought that maybe there are 100 more people hospitalized in Texas (or wherever), spread across some tertiary hospitals in some rural or small town areas, that report their numbers every 2-3 days? There are delays in EVERY reporting, and this is why I disregard any change in trends that are less than one week, UNLESS those changes are dramatic. Overall, I look at 2-3 weeks periods, I gather all the info I can on what happened on those 2-3 weeks, I make my projections on the model, and if it fits (it almost always fits, in acceptable error ranges, 5 to 7%), I post my predictions. I do not take ANY OFFICIAL NUMBERS for granted. Those numbers are not reliable, especially on short term. Too many delays in results, a lot of political infringement, test reliability is not good enough, the number of tests is far from being reliable, the contact tracing is absolutely horrendous, in both time used and actual tracing, etc. However, in time, TRENDS are clear : it's going up, it plateaus, or it's going down. What happens in some state or city or county, in a 2-3 days period, is not reliable to project a trend, either for cases, hospitalizations, ICU or deaths. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79154181  Australia07/16/2020 07:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just thought I’d add this. Something I came across. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77619382 A man here caught the virus, then ten days after recovery caught it again.. [link to www.dailymail.co.uk (secure)] This is going to be more and more acknowledged as time pases. We had a congressman in Chile that had the same thing happen to him, second time was much nastier. Different strains ? , if this thing turns out to be a fast mutater might not be ELE but would give it a good nudge , any thoughts on mutation ? |
| deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom07/16/2020 07:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sorry to hear it, Joe Preps. Quoting: deplorable recollector I am even more sorry that Miami-Dade county will not lock-down for another 2 weeks or so. It MUST get worse, until people realize what no lock-down actually means, and start asking for a lock-down. Politicians...always playing both hands, and never lose. They will let it get worse, so they can lock-down w/o being blamed for it. Ohio’s governor’s press briefing today was essentially this set up. Ask, virtually beg, people to wear masks and when they don’t he will let it burn a bit longer to show how he was right. And then will lock it down once he has enough support from the citizens. For a politician it is the only way to play the game. Based on the info you’ve provided DR, I would expect it to last two weeks or less. Do you think the virus increased in transmissibility due to the lockdowns? And how long until we can expect the Covid deaths to start increasing? My concern is that as long as the virus isn’t killing, most will consider it to be “just the flu”. The virus transmissibility was lowered, almost hammered, during lock-downs. My prediction on how the pandemic resurgence after reopening was based on a simple fact, that everyone on GLP knows it for a very long time : once you GOT the virus, it stays with you, and except a small fraction, that are less then 5% of the population, it goes dormant, and reactivates after a period of time. Virtually everyone who got the virus, is a ticking, contagion bomb. We cannot contain this pandemic, we can only slow it down, with lock-downs, to values that are manageable by the hospitals. And we will have to do it until the virus gets much weaker, or we somehow get some sort of immunity, or we get a working vaccine, or a treatment, or a combination of the above. If we let this pandemic run wild, without serious countermeasures (AT THE VERY LEAST all public spaces that we usually gather, like pubs, bars, churches, closed for many months AND international and national travel fully stopped for many months, paired with masks and distancing) we are going to suffer both life and economic losses that will be massive. The most affected states in the U.S. are already showing a GLIMPSE of what not taking counter measures means, and by the end of July, we will witness a much bigger disaster in the epicenters in FL, TX and AZ, at least. Deaths are already starting to rise, and will continue to rise for another 4 weeks, and if no counter measures are in place, the deaths will surpass the values from March and April, and that is Covid-19 ONLY deaths. But deaths in general will spike in the next months, if we let the pandemic run unabated, because lack of ICU beds, lack of medical staff, will cause many people, who could have been saved in normal conditions, to die. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79153655  Italy07/16/2020 08:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| SpinalCracker
User ID: 78892661  United States07/16/2020 09:13 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | July 15th, 2020. Quoting: deplorable recollector Time for a new update. First, my predictions about the U.S. reopening way too early, with an increase in pandemic spread (cases, hospitalizations, ICU usage) that will start to be seen roughly 4 to 6 weeks after May 15th, were proven to be on point. The U.S. resurgence of the pandemic (I call it the second wave) started roughly at the end of June, which is 5 weeks after May 15th. In the last 3 weeks (last week of June and first 2 weeks of July), the number of cases, hospitalizations and ICU usage in a number of areas of the U.S. simply exploded. No need for numbers, we all see how the pandemic is going in Texas, Florida, California and Arizona. Another prediction I made is that by the end of July - beginning of August, the resurgence of the pandemic (second wave) will get much worse, and this is what we are seeing now, with several more states at the point of exploding in cases : Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Ohio, Nevada and Oklahoma. Overall, I expected at least 12 epicenters in the U.S., and if my projections are correct, by the end of July - beginning of August, at least 13 states in the U.S. will have 1 to 2 epicenters each. Time will tell, it's only 2 to 3 weeks left until my projections will be proven right or wrong. As for Brazil, there isn't much left to say. Two weeks ago I said it will get worse, and it got worse. And will continue on the same path for another 2-3 weeks, when I expect Brazil to plateau. How long will the plateau last, I have no idea, at this very moment, but it will last a good while. Europe. From the beginning I said it is very complicated to predict the pandemic evolution in Europe, because the differences between Europe and the U.S. or Brazil are massive. However, I still expect Europe to see the second wave starting sometime in the next 3 weeks, I still expect multiple epicenters (at least 16) to be established by the end of August. The U.S. and Europe reopened in same time table, around mid-May, but while the U.S. reopened at breaking neck speed (quickly going from Phase 1 to 4, because "muh money"), Europe did not. Most European countries are in Phase 2 and 3. The restrictions in Europe are actually observed and enforced, on a large scale. The mask wearing in Europe is much more spread compared to the U.S. or Brazil. The limitations on tourism and travel are generally respected by the businesses and population. Sure, there are exceptions, but generally speaking, the Europeans, at least until recently, did abide by the rules. The reasons above is what made me put the resurgence of the pandemic in Europe 8 to 10 weeks after reopening, which puts the date of resurgence between mid to end of July. We're on July 15th now, so the second wave is about to start in Europe, but as I said, it is very difficult to predict it, because of how different are the policies in the countries that are on the continent. My model still predicts the start of the resurgence in Europe in the next 2 weeks. I believe that Europe will react swiftly to the resurgence, and looking at how quick were the Spanish and the U.K. governments in locking-down certain cities and areas, I expect the same to happen in the rest of Europe. The resurgence in Europe will play differently from the U.S. Europe will see a solid increase in cases by September, but not as bad as the U.S. is seeing right now. However, I expect to be big enough to justify large scale lock-downs in Europe by mid-October. Moderna's vaccine, vaccines in general, herd immunity and the new strain. I wish good luck to Moderna and other companies that are working on vaccines right now, but I am afraid they are pissing against the wind. A vaccine against coronaviruses is virtually impossible to create. The current vaccines against coronaviruses are ineffective. A vaccine against a NOVEL coronavirus is a dream pipe. The best case scenario, when everything goes perfect, we might have a vaccine against sars-cov-2 next Summer. Obviously, it will be ineffective (10%, MAYBE 20% effective), the mass scale production AND vaccination of the general population will take AT LEAST an additional 6 months. Herd immunity, while unclear if it was possible or not, is now pretty much a done deal : it's off the table. Not enough antibodies and their lifespan is short. The new strain, that is becoming dominant in the U.S., and is beginning to affect Europe now, is highly, HIGHLY contagious. Masks won't do shit against the spread, BUT will do against viral load, which is directly related to the severity of the symptoms, hence, the hospitalizations and ICU usage. The general population is fed up with the pandemic, some think it's a hoax, some think the virus is weak, some think only old people will die...but that is not the actual problem. The actual problem is that the general population is ADAMANT against a new round of lock-downs, and their SYMBOL of resistance is ... NOT WEARING A MASK. Since the begging of this thread I said that we, the people, will be the ones that can make or break this virus, and I was absolutely sure that people WILL MESS IT UP, that they are uncontrollable, they are not disciplined enough in the Western societies, and because of that, the pandemic will be devastating. I have also said that I expect the second round of lock-downs to take place when the pandemic will be out of control, and the politicians, being the spineless weasels that they are, will LET THE VIRUS run wild in the second wave, and do so much damage, that the population will ASK for the second round lock-downs, hence, whatever will happen with the economy and the society, will be blamed on the virus AND the population being stubborn and not abiding by the rules of the pandemic. This is clearly happening now in the U.S., and by mid-August, I expect massive lock-downs in the U.S. But I might be optimistic, and they will STILL not lock-down in August, but come September, they will have to. The critical period is the next 3 weeks, and the countries to watch are the U.S. and Brazil. The U.S., to see how they react, because this is how Europe and the rest of the world will copy, and Brazil, to see how things will look if a country is adamant against lock-downs. I live in ground ZERO for the US right now in Miami-Dade, and I can assure you ll that 50% of the people here would welcome a hard lock down right now...the other 50% wont stand for it....We need it here now as hospitals are at the MAX or will be there in a day or so. I have cousins in Broward that think it's a hoax. I hope they don't bring it home to my uncle, who has COPD. A whole new level of fuckery |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78607611 United States07/16/2020 10:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sorry to hear it, Joe Preps. Quoting: deplorable recollector I am even more sorry that Miami-Dade county will not lock-down for another 2 weeks or so. It MUST get worse, until people realize what no lock-down actually means, and start asking for a lock-down. Politicians...always playing both hands, and never lose. They will let it get worse, so they can lock-down w/o being blamed for it. Ohio’s governor’s press briefing today was essentially this set up. Ask, virtually beg, people to wear masks and when they don’t he will let it burn a bit longer to show how he was right. And then will lock it down once he has enough support from the citizens. For a politician it is the only way to play the game. Based on the info you’ve provided DR, I would expect it to last two weeks or less. Do you think the virus increased in transmissibility due to the lockdowns? And how long until we can expect the Covid deaths to start increasing? My concern is that as long as the virus isn’t killing, most will consider it to be “just the flu”. The virus transmissibility was lowered, almost hammered, during lock-downs. My prediction on how the pandemic resurgence after reopening was based on a simple fact, that everyone on GLP knows it for a very long time : once you GOT the virus, it stays with you, and except a small fraction, that are less then 5% of the population, it goes dormant, and reactivates after a period of time. Virtually everyone who got the virus, is a ticking, contagion bomb. We cannot contain this pandemic, we can only slow it down, with lock-downs, to values that are manageable by the hospitals. And we will have to do it until the virus gets much weaker, or we somehow get some sort of immunity, or we get a working vaccine, or a treatment, or a combination of the above. If we let this pandemic run wild, without serious countermeasures (AT THE VERY LEAST all public spaces that we usually gather, like pubs, bars, churches, closed for many months AND international and national travel fully stopped for many months, paired with masks and distancing) we are going to suffer both life and economic losses that will be massive. The most affected states in the U.S. are already showing a GLIMPSE of what not taking counter measures means, and by the end of July, we will witness a much bigger disaster in the epicenters in FL, TX and AZ, at least. Deaths are already starting to rise, and will continue to rise for another 4 weeks, and if no counter measures are in place, the deaths will surpass the values from March and April, and that is Covid-19 ONLY deaths. But deaths in general will spike in the next months, if we let the pandemic run unabated, because lack of ICU beds, lack of medical staff, will cause many people, who could have been saved in normal conditions, to die. Deaths would be reduced if nursing homes were protected, and the rest of humanity is allowed to obtain herd immunity during the highest UV days. There are multiple treatments, but nutrition and common sense sanitation are key. Vitamin C, D and zinc are super important. 10 minutes of sun in a swimsuit = 10,000 IU of Vitamin D (recent health article in Epoch Times) The next 4 weeks in the Northern hemisphere are in summer, where other diseases are minimal, reducing hospital use. At some point, people will choose common sense and quality of life over unnecessary fear. I know 3 people who died due to the shutdowns/fear of going to hospital; 0 who have died to the virus. |
| Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 76933812  Chile07/16/2020 10:55 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sorry to hear it, Joe Preps. Quoting: deplorable recollector I am even more sorry that Miami-Dade county will not lock-down for another 2 weeks or so. It MUST get worse, until people realize what no lock-down actually means, and start asking for a lock-down. Politicians...always playing both hands, and never lose. They will let it get worse, so they can lock-down w/o being blamed for it. Ohio’s governor’s press briefing today was essentially this set up. Ask, virtually beg, people to wear masks and when they don’t he will let it burn a bit longer to show how he was right. And then will lock it down once he has enough support from the citizens. For a politician it is the only way to play the game. Based on the info you’ve provided DR, I would expect it to last two weeks or less. Do you think the virus increased in transmissibility due to the lockdowns? And how long until we can expect the Covid deaths to start increasing? My concern is that as long as the virus isn’t killing, most will consider it to be “just the flu”. The virus transmissibility was lowered, almost hammered, during lock-downs. My prediction on how the pandemic resurgence after reopening was based on a simple fact, that everyone on GLP knows it for a very long time : once you GOT the virus, it stays with you, and except a small fraction, that are less then 5% of the population, it goes dormant, and reactivates after a period of time. Virtually everyone who got the virus, is a ticking, contagion bomb. We cannot contain this pandemic, we can only slow it down, with lock-downs, to values that are manageable by the hospitals. And we will have to do it until the virus gets much weaker, or we somehow get some sort of immunity, or we get a working vaccine, or a treatment, or a combination of the above. If we let this pandemic run wild, without serious countermeasures (AT THE VERY LEAST all public spaces that we usually gather, like pubs, bars, churches, closed for many months AND international and national travel fully stopped for many months, paired with masks and distancing) we are going to suffer both life and economic losses that will be massive. The most affected states in the U.S. are already showing a GLIMPSE of what not taking counter measures means, and by the end of July, we will witness a much bigger disaster in the epicenters in FL, TX and AZ, at least. Deaths are already starting to rise, and will continue to rise for another 4 weeks, and if no counter measures are in place, the deaths will surpass the values from March and April, and that is Covid-19 ONLY deaths. But deaths in general will spike in the next months, if we let the pandemic run unabated, because lack of ICU beds, lack of medical staff, will cause many people, who could have been saved in normal conditions, to die. Deaths would be reduced if nursing homes were protected, and the rest of humanity is allowed to obtain herd immunity during the highest UV days. There are multiple treatments, but nutrition and common sense sanitation are key. Vitamin C, D and zinc are super important. 10 minutes of sun in a swimsuit = 10,000 IU of Vitamin D (recent health article in Epoch Times) The next 4 weeks in the Northern hemisphere are in summer, where other diseases are minimal, reducing hospital use. At some point, people will choose common sense and quality of life over unnecessary fear. I know 3 people who died due to the shutdowns/fear of going to hospital; 0 who have died to the virus. Yet another person Knee jerk reacting to this thread because of lacking the brain power to see the whole picture, and extrapolating to the world from his limited personal perspective. All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
| Vegz
User ID: 79147010 United States07/16/2020 11:18 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi DR, Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79128165 Thanks for all you do. What do you make of the infection rate in Texas seeing 10k cases a day, but the hospitalization rate plateauing, and not going up. What you have said previously makes sense to me--this being a more contagious, less fatal strain--causing the hospitals to reach capacity. But here in Texas, the hospitalizations don't seem to be going up any longer. I can't wrap my head around it. Do you think we have already experienced the uptick in cases due to the 4th of July? Thanks You can't look at what happens in 2-3 days, and projecting in the future. There are days with less cases and higher hospitalization rate, days with more cases and less hospitalized rate, days with more deaths or lower deaths, more or less ICU patients, more pre-symptomatic or less, etc., and let's not forget, that the information that comes to light is not even close to reality. Have you thought that maybe there are 100 more people hospitalized in Texas (or wherever), spread across some tertiary hospitals in some rural or small town areas, that report their numbers every 2-3 days? There are delays in EVERY reporting, and this is why I disregard any change in trends that are less than one week, UNLESS those changes are dramatic. Overall, I look at 2-3 weeks periods, I gather all the info I can on what happened on those 2-3 weeks, I make my projections on the model, and if it fits (it almost always fits, in acceptable error ranges, 5 to 7%), I post my predictions. I do not take ANY OFFICIAL NUMBERS for granted. Those numbers are not reliable, especially on short term. Too many delays in results, a lot of political infringement, test reliability is not good enough, the number of tests is far from being reliable, the contact tracing is absolutely horrendous, in both time used and actual tracing, etc. However, in time, TRENDS are clear : it's going up, it plateaus, or it's going down. What happens in some state or city or county, in a 2-3 days period, is not reliable to project a trend, either for cases, hospitalizations, ICU or deaths. Great points. And to be honest, it would make absolutely no sense for Texas to just plateau right now. That would be nothing short of a miracle. The bad news is nothing lasts forever. The good news is nothing lasts forever. |
| deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom07/16/2020 01:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes Vegz, there is no reason for a plateau, be it Texas or other state, county, etc. Most people seems to not understand WHEN and HOW a plateau is reached during a pandemic. It is quite complicated to predict a plateau, depends on so many factors, and for this novel virus, its even more complicated. Historically speaking, Summer time should have been a long and low plateau in cases. It didn't happened, which means that at least for medium term, this virus is not seasonal. It may become, after couple more years, but not for the time being. Also historically speaking, we should have gained immunity, but we didn't. There are already dozens of studies showing low and short term immunity. Another factor that makes this virus, at least for the time being, non-seasonal. Considering the above, this virus is not going to drop and plateau in warm seasons and rise in cold seasons. The ONLY factor, that we know for sure that leads to a plateau, is a nation-wide lock-down, with minimal travel between nations and within the nations. We cannot look at Japan and SK, and conclude that wearing masks is a factor in plateauing this pandemic. We cannot, first, rely on their numbers, which are most likely downplayed, or, if indeed their numbers are true, the combination of masks and the weaker strain that they experienced, led to those numbers. But clearly, we cannot just wear masks and hope that the pandemic will slow down, not to mention that Western societies are not ready for such a cultural change, a change that is rejected by EVERYONE in the West, even if a part of the population is using the masks. We ALL reject the masks, for different reasons (from hoaxtards, to being fined, to being scared, etc.), but we all reject the mask, in principle. So, what we are dealing with now and for at least another year, is a virus that is non-seasonal, a virus that will spread like wildfire in the cold weather (because low Vit-D, weaker immune system, sunlight, more time indoors, etc.), low and short lived immunity to the virus, and if we do not use the ONLY way that proved to be reliable in plateauing and lowering the cases and load on the hospitals, we are on a very dangerous path. I see nothing that Texas did that will justify a plateau in cases or hospitalizations. No lock-downs, masks are not mandatory, social distancing is virtually nonexistent, traveling is at normal levels, beaches are full, bars are full, parties everywhere, churches full. There is, ofc, the artificial plateau, by not testing and under reporting cases and hospitalizations, that is much worse then actually telling people that we are fucked, because it will, again, lead to complacency. This is already happening in the U.S., with data going to the HHS instead CDC. However, this artificial plateauing, by lying using numbers, will not be long lived, since people will still get sick, will still get to the hospital, no matter what the authorities say. At some point, in the not so distant future, everyone will see, or known someone who is sick or dead, and when this time will come, the governments will lose the last drop of trust that they have, and things will go down south really really fast. Last Edited by Recollector on 07/16/2020 06:29 PM |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79125680  Canada07/16/2020 01:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes Vegz, there is no reason for a plateau, be it Texas or other state, county, etc. Quoting: deplorable recollector Most people seems to not understand WHEN and HOW a plateau is reached during a pandemic. It is quite complicated to predict a plateau, depends on so many factors, and for this novel virus, its even more complicated. Historically speaking, Summer time should have been a long and low plateau in cases. It didn't happened, which means that at least for medium term, this virus is not seasonal. It may become, after couple more years, but not for the time being. Also historically speaking, we should have gained immunity, but we didn't. There are already dozens of studies showing low and short term immunity. Another factor that makes this virus, at least for the time being, non-seasonal. Considering the above, this virus is not going to drop and plateau in warm seasons and rise in cold seasons. The ONLY factor, that we know for sure that leads to a plateau, is a nation-wide lock-down, with minimal travel between nations and within the nations. We cannot look at Japan and SK, and conclude that wearing masks is a factor in plateauing this pandemic. We cannot, first, rely on their numbers, which are most likely downplayed, or, if indeed their numbers are true, the combination of masks and the weaker strain that they experienced, led to those numbers. But clearly, we cannot just wear masks and hope that the pandemic will slow down, not to mention that Western societies are not ready for such a cultural change, a change that is rejected by EVERYONE in the West, even if a part of the population is using the masks. We ALL reject the masks, for different reasons (from hoaxtards, to being fined, to being scared, etc.), but we all reject the mask, in principle. So, what we are dealing with now and for at least another year, is a virus that is non-seasonal, a virus that will spread like wildfire in the cold warm (because low Vit-D, weaker immune system, sunlight, more time indoors, etc.), low and short lived immunity to the virus, and if we do not use the ONLY way that proved to be reliable in plateauing and lowering the cases and load on the hospitals, we are on a very dangerous path. I see nothing that Texas did that will justify a plateau in cases or hospitalizations. No lock-downs, masks are not mandatory, social distancing is virtually nonexistent, traveling is at normal levels, beaches are full, bars are full, parties everywhere, churches full. There is, ofc, the artificial plateau, by not testing and under reporting cases and hospitalizations, that is much worse then actually telling people that we are fucked, because it will, again, lead to complacency. This is already happening in the U.S., with data going to the HHS instead CDC. However, this artificial plateauing, by lying using numbers, will not be long lived, since people will still get sick, will still get to the hospital, no matter what the authorities say. At some point, in the not so distant future, everyone will see, or known someone who is sick or dead, and when this time will come, the governments will lose the last drop of trust that they have, and things will go down south really really fast.  So well-stated, DR! Excellent explanation. Thank you so much! |
| Serenity Now
User ID: 78311287 United States07/16/2020 04:54 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes Vegz, there is no reason for a plateau, be it Texas or other state, county, etc. Quoting: deplorable recollector Most people seems to not understand WHEN and HOW a plateau is reached during a pandemic. It is quite complicated to predict a plateau, depends on so many factors, and for this novel virus, its even more complicated. Historically speaking, Summer time should have been a long and low plateau in cases. It didn't happened, which means that at least for medium term, this virus is not seasonal. It may become, after couple more years, but not for the time being. Also historically speaking, we should have gained immunity, but we didn't. There are already dozens of studies showing low and short term immunity. Another factor that makes this virus, at least for the time being, non-seasonal. Considering the above, this virus is not going to drop and plateau in warm seasons and rise in cold seasons. The ONLY factor, that we know for sure that leads to a plateau, is a nation-wide lock-down, with minimal travel between nations and within the nations. We cannot look at Japan and SK, and conclude that wearing masks is a factor in plateauing this pandemic. We cannot, first, rely on their numbers, which are most likely downplayed, or, if indeed their numbers are true, the combination of masks and the weaker strain that they experienced, led to those numbers. But clearly, we cannot just wear masks and hope that the pandemic will slow down, not to mention that Western societies are not ready for such a cultural change, a change that is rejected by EVERYONE in the West, even if a part of the population is using the masks. We ALL reject the masks, for different reasons (from hoaxtards, to being fined, to being scared, etc.), but we all reject the mask, in principle. So, what we are dealing with now and for at least another year, is a virus that is non-seasonal, a virus that will spread like wildfire in the cold warm (because low Vit-D, weaker immune system, sunlight, more time indoors, etc.), low and short lived immunity to the virus, and if we do not use the ONLY way that proved to be reliable in plateauing and lowering the cases and load on the hospitals, we are on a very dangerous path. I see nothing that Texas did that will justify a plateau in cases or hospitalizations. No lock-downs, masks are not mandatory, social distancing is virtually nonexistent, traveling is at normal levels, beaches are full, bars are full, parties everywhere, churches full. There is, ofc, the artificial plateau, by not testing and under reporting cases and hospitalizations, that is much worse then actually telling people that we are fucked, because it will, again, lead to complacency. This is already happening in the U.S., with data going to the HHS instead CDC. However, this artificial plateauing, by lying using numbers, will not be long lived, since people will still get sick, will still get to the hospital, no matter what the authorities say. At some point, in the not so distant future, everyone will see, or known someone who is sick or dead, and when this time will come, the governments will lose the last drop of trust that they have, and things will go down south really really fast. DR, thank you for your recent updates and comments. How bad do you think things will be economically? Do you think the banks will fail? Do you really think we will end up like The Postman? I was hoping you were joking about that, but now I'm not so sure.... Sorry, I know that was too many questions. :) First tell the truth, then give your opinion.... |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77783844  France07/16/2020 06:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes Vegz, there is no reason for a plateau, be it Texas or other state, county, etc. Quoting: deplorable recollector Most people seems to not understand WHEN and HOW a plateau is reached during a pandemic. It is quite complicated to predict a plateau, depends on so many factors, and for this novel virus, its even more complicated. Historically speaking, Summer time should have been a long and low plateau in cases. It didn't happened, which means that at least for medium term, this virus is not seasonal. It may become, after couple more years, but not for the time being. Also historically speaking, we should have gained immunity, but we didn't. There are already dozens of studies showing low and short term immunity. Another factor that makes this virus, at least for the time being, non-seasonal. Considering the above, this virus is not going to drop and plateau in warm seasons and rise in cold seasons. The ONLY factor, that we know for sure that leads to a plateau, is a nation-wide lock-down, with minimal travel between nations and within the nations. We cannot look at Japan and SK, and conclude that wearing masks is a factor in plateauing this pandemic. We cannot, first, rely on their numbers, which are most likely downplayed, or, if indeed their numbers are true, the combination of masks and the weaker strain that they experienced, led to those numbers. But clearly, we cannot just wear masks and hope that the pandemic will slow down, not to mention that Western societies are not ready for such a cultural change, a change that is rejected by EVERYONE in the West, even if a part of the population is using the masks. We ALL reject the masks, for different reasons (from hoaxtards, to being fined, to being scared, etc.), but we all reject the mask, in principle. So, what we are dealing with now and for at least another year, is a virus that is non-seasonal, a virus that will spread like wildfire in the cold warm (because low Vit-D, weaker immune system, sunlight, more time indoors, etc.), low and short lived immunity to the virus, and if we do not use the ONLY way that proved to be reliable in plateauing and lowering the cases and load on the hospitals, we are on a very dangerous path. I see nothing that Texas did that will justify a plateau in cases or hospitalizations. No lock-downs, masks are not mandatory, social distancing is virtually nonexistent, traveling is at normal levels, beaches are full, bars are full, parties everywhere, churches full. There is, ofc, the artificial plateau, by not testing and under reporting cases and hospitalizations, that is much worse then actually telling people that we are fucked, because it will, again, lead to complacency. This is already happening in the U.S., with data going to the HHS instead CDC. However, this artificial plateauing, by lying using numbers, will not be long lived, since people will still get sick, will still get to the hospital, no matter what the authorities say. At some point, in the not so distant future, everyone will see, or known someone who is sick or dead, and when this time will come, the governments will lose the last drop of trust that they have, and things will go down south really really fast. I agree that there is no reason or a plateau...but the hospitalizations dropped again today. Looking at the week average, the # of new cases are staying consistent/rising, but the hospitalizations are leveling out. Dutchy commented on the main COVID thread, that perhaps it's due to refreshment rate. Also that TX Data is misleading. (For instance, does an increase in admittance to ICU result in lower hospitalizations? IE, they are moving to a different unit?) Regardless...something isn't right IMO. Also, worldometers reported 12k new cases in TX yesterday, where TXDHS reported 10.7, so it's all very confusing and erroneous. I really can't wrap my head around the hospitalizations, though. DR...if you get a moment, is it possible to look into this? Any way I can help you, by providing info or numbers? Thanks |
| Guythu
User ID: 46693703 United States07/16/2020 10:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Lockdown measures helped reduce the number of COVID-19 cases around the world, study finds Implementation of any physical distancing measure was associated with an overall 13% average reduction in COVID-19 incidence, the study found. In combination, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures of schools and workplaces appeared to play a significant role in the reduction of COVID-19 cases. But shutting down public transit when the other measures were in place wasn't associated with an additional decline in COVID-19 cases, likely because fewer people were using public transportation, according to the authors. [link to medicalxpress.com (secure)] |
| Leonero
User ID: 79159673 Italy07/17/2020 05:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY 17th july + 233 new positive cases + 11 deaths Rt index is now > 1 in the whole country. Regions that report a R0 index > 1: Veneto: 1.61 Tuscany: 1.24 Latium: 1.23 Lombardy: 1.14 Piedmont & Emilia Romagna: 1.06 Ad Omnia Paratus |
| Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 76933812 Chile07/17/2020 05:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero 17th july + 233 new positive cases + 11 deaths Rt index is now > 1 in the whole country. Regions that report a R0 index > 1: Veneto: 1.61 Tuscany: 1.24 Latium: 1.23 Lombardy: 1.14 Piedmont & Emilia Romagna: 1.06 Like the book of Gabriel García Márquez: Crónica de una muerte anunciada (Chronicle of an annouced death). The virus does not care about the economy, if you get hosts together, it will spread. All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
| Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 76933812 Chile07/17/2020 05:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Lockdown measures helped reduce the number of COVID-19 cases around the world, study finds Quoting: Guythu Implementation of any physical distancing measure was associated with an overall 13% average reduction in COVID-19 incidence, the study found. In combination, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures of schools and workplaces appeared to play a significant role in the reduction of COVID-19 cases. But shutting down public transit when the other measures were in place wasn't associated with an additional decline in COVID-19 cases, likely because fewer people were using public transportation, according to the authors. [link to medicalxpress.com (secure)] No one doubts it (I mean, no one with a working brain, but we know that there is a horde of morons that won't be swayed by logic or reason, because "muh rights" "mu freedum"). What I dread is that even a strict lock down is unable to make the virus dissapear. It's a friggin nightmare. All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
| Leonero
User ID: 79159673 Italy07/17/2020 06:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero 17th july + 233 new positive cases + 11 deaths Rt index is now > 1 in the whole country. Regions that report a R0 index > 1: Veneto: 1.61 Tuscany: 1.24 Latium: 1.23 Lombardy: 1.14 Piedmont & Emilia Romagna: 1.06 Like the book of Gabriel García Márquez: Crónica de una muerte anunciada (Chronicle of an annouced death). The virus does not care about the economy, if you get hosts together, it will spread. Perfect recap of the situation  PS I want to give you all some intel information about situation in Italy. Police Forces and Italian Health Organization (ASL - district health organization for a specific city) can't find almost 1000 people from India and Bangladesh in Rome who should have been tested for Covid-19 because... Well... They got fake documents and now they "disappeared". Police Forces don't want to test and track contacts of gipsy people because they are too afraid about them... Yes, italian police fears gipsy people (very large and armed community in Italy) There are at least 7 chinese prostitutes positive in the country who continue to do their job (1 Milan, 2 Prato [Tuscany], 3 Rome, 1 Monza [Lombardy] ) We are fucked. Last Edited by Leonero on 07/17/2020 06:50 PM Ad Omnia Paratus |
| Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 76933812 Chile07/17/2020 07:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero 17th july + 233 new positive cases + 11 deaths Rt index is now > 1 in the whole country. Regions that report a R0 index > 1: Veneto: 1.61 Tuscany: 1.24 Latium: 1.23 Lombardy: 1.14 Piedmont & Emilia Romagna: 1.06 Like the book of Gabriel García Márquez: Crónica de una muerte anunciada (Chronicle of an annouced death). The virus does not care about the economy, if you get hosts together, it will spread. Perfect recap of the situation PS I want to give you all some intel information about situation in Italy. Police Forces and Italian Health Organization (ASL - district health organization for a specific city) can't find almost 1000 people from India and Bangladesh in Rome who should have been tested for Covid-19 because... Well... They got fake documents and now they "disappeared". Police Forces don't want to test and track contacts of gipsy people because they are too afraid about them... Yes, italian police fears gipsy people (very large and armed community in Italy) There are at least 7 chinese prostitutes positive in the country who continue to do their job (1 Milan, 2 Prato [Tuscany], 3 Rome, 1 Monza [Lombardy] ) We are fucked. Sorry to hear that Leonero. Is sad to realize that, in all parts of the world, many of those who should be part of the solution, are just worsening the problem. All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79058143 United States07/17/2020 08:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero 17th july + 233 new positive cases + 11 deaths Rt index is now > 1 in the whole country. Regions that report a R0 index > 1: Veneto: 1.61 Tuscany: 1.24 Latium: 1.23 Lombardy: 1.14 Piedmont & Emilia Romagna: 1.06 Like the book of Gabriel García Márquez: Crónica de una muerte anunciada (Chronicle of an annouced death). The virus does not care about the economy, if you get hosts together, it will spread. Perfect recap of the situation PS I want to give you all some intel information about situation in Italy. Police Forces and Italian Health Organization (ASL - district health organization for a specific city) can't find almost 1000 people from India and Bangladesh in Rome who should have been tested for Covid-19 because... Well... They got fake documents and now they "disappeared". Police Forces don't want to test and track contacts of gipsy people because they are too afraid about them... Yes, italian police fears gipsy people (very large and armed community in Italy) There are at least 7 chinese prostitutes positive in the country who continue to do their job (1 Milan, 2 Prato [Tuscany], 3 Rome, 1 Monza [Lombardy] ) We are fucked. Well, as long as the Chinese women wear masks it will be fine. |
| SWOOPSTER
User ID: 76699386 United States07/18/2020 01:01 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero 17th july + 233 new positive cases + 11 deaths Rt index is now > 1 in the whole country. Regions that report a R0 index > 1: Veneto: 1.61 Tuscany: 1.24 Latium: 1.23 Lombardy: 1.14 Piedmont & Emilia Romagna: 1.06 Like the book of Gabriel García Márquez: Crónica de una muerte anunciada (Chronicle of an annouced death). The virus does not care about the economy, if you get hosts together, it will spread. Perfect recap of the situation PS I want to give you all some intel information about situation in Italy. Police Forces and Italian Health Organization (ASL - district health organization for a specific city) can't find almost 1000 people from India and Bangladesh in Rome who should have been tested for Covid-19 because... Well... They got fake documents and now they "disappeared". Police Forces don't want to test and track contacts of gipsy people because they are too afraid about them... Yes, italian police fears gipsy people (very large and armed community in Italy) There are at least 7 chinese prostitutes positive in the country who continue to do their job (1 Milan, 2 Prato [Tuscany], 3 Rome, 1 Monza [Lombardy] ) We are fucked. Well, as long as the Chinese women wear masks it will be fine. Gain of Function! ~S~ |
| Leonero
User ID: 79159673 Italy07/18/2020 05:51 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero 17th july + 233 new positive cases + 11 deaths Rt index is now > 1 in the whole country. Regions that report a R0 index > 1: Veneto: 1.61 Tuscany: 1.24 Latium: 1.23 Lombardy: 1.14 Piedmont & Emilia Romagna: 1.06 Like the book of Gabriel García Márquez: Crónica de una muerte anunciada (Chronicle of an annouced death). The virus does not care about the economy, if you get hosts together, it will spread. Perfect recap of the situation PS I want to give you all some intel information about situation in Italy. Police Forces and Italian Health Organization (ASL - district health organization for a specific city) can't find almost 1000 people from India and Bangladesh in Rome who should have been tested for Covid-19 because... Well... They got fake documents and now they "disappeared". Police Forces don't want to test and track contacts of gipsy people because they are too afraid about them... Yes, italian police fears gipsy people (very large and armed community in Italy) There are at least 7 chinese prostitutes positive in the country who continue to do their job (1 Milan, 2 Prato [Tuscany], 3 Rome, 1 Monza [Lombardy] ) We are fucked. Sorry to hear that Leonero. Is sad to realize that, in all parts of the world, many of those who should be part of the solution, are just worsening the problem. Yep. Unfortunately every government act in the same way. In this "phase" (not only in Italy but also in other EU countries), governments are trying to push tourism economy, so I guess they are "covering" the truth (as long as possible). I really think that positive cases in Italy are underestimated. Luckily, some experts (from ISS, for example {Health Superior Institute} and other "agencies") started to say that it's not safe to re-open schools in September (not enough funds to create safe spaces that can guarantee social distancing between children). I worry that the worst is yet to come... Ad Omnia Paratus |
| Leonero
User ID: 79159673 Italy07/18/2020 05:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero 17th july + 233 new positive cases + 11 deaths Rt index is now > 1 in the whole country. Regions that report a R0 index > 1: Veneto: 1.61 Tuscany: 1.24 Latium: 1.23 Lombardy: 1.14 Piedmont & Emilia Romagna: 1.06 Like the book of Gabriel García Márquez: Crónica de una muerte anunciada (Chronicle of an annouced death). The virus does not care about the economy, if you get hosts together, it will spread. Perfect recap of the situation PS I want to give you all some intel information about situation in Italy. Police Forces and Italian Health Organization (ASL - district health organization for a specific city) can't find almost 1000 people from India and Bangladesh in Rome who should have been tested for Covid-19 because... Well... They got fake documents and now they "disappeared". Police Forces don't want to test and track contacts of gipsy people because they are too afraid about them... Yes, italian police fears gipsy people (very large and armed community in Italy) There are at least 7 chinese prostitutes positive in the country who continue to do their job (1 Milan, 2 Prato [Tuscany], 3 Rome, 1 Monza [Lombardy] ) We are fucked. Well, as long as the Chinese women wear masks it will be fine. Of course. And if you smash from behind, you can also guarantee some kind of social distancing!  PS thank you AC for giving me a moment of fun :) Ad Omnia Paratus |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77513474 United States07/18/2020 10:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79164914 United States07/19/2020 02:12 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Not good at all~~ Study from South Korea "Several studies from Europe and Asia have suggested that young children are less likely to get infected and to spread the virus. But most of those studies were small and flawed, said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute The new study “is very carefully done, it’s systematic and looks at a very large population,” Dr. Jha said. “It’s one of the best studies we’ve had to date on this issue.” " [link to www.nytimes.com (secure)] |
| The Gathering Storm
User ID: 76645858 United Kingdom07/19/2020 07:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| ParamedicUK
User ID: 30983228 United Kingdom07/19/2020 08:31 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78576165 United States07/19/2020 08:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Could a few of you report in with what yours supermarket's are like , as in shelves restocked or still having trouble getting some/most goods ? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79086137 Just asking because I believe we will be going through it agin very soon and just curious as to what to expect .Any information would be epreciated. Thanks in advance Reporting from rural northern California, as of 07/13: Food Maxx and Costco: Well-stocked with everything and no limitations on items. Our local cases have been increasing a lot lately. I have a little inside information for you folks here that would not be appreciated by the GLP forum at-large. You know how people are always posting about double-counting results, and counties working the data to over-report cases? Well, due to my occupation I can tell you with certainty that the opposite of that is happening locally; we are under-reporting cases and leaving some confirmed cases off the official tally altogether. We still have no deaths and only one hospitalization [in my county], thank goodness--but even in crazy Kalifornistan, we're fudging the data to reflect a slower increase than is actually occurring. Thanks for the confirmation. California is #5 in the world's economy. Though it seems to protect the people first, economy is vital to preserve. We opened early because Newsom gave in too in the end to save the economy. Now, people are getting signatures to recall him. Then what? |
| Serenity Now
User ID: 78311287 United States07/19/2020 11:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Veritas_Aequitas
User ID: 17944814 United States07/20/2020 01:03 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great thread DR, following since the beginning. What are your thoughts on the Northeast states, like NJ, NY, CT - etc., who were the initial epicenters of the virus. Do you foresee their numbers spiking again? "If God saw what any of us did that night he didn't seem to mind. From then on I knew... God doesn't make the world this way. We do." --Rorschach "Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war; That this foul deed shall smell above the earth With carrion men, groaning for burial." - Shakespeare And Shepherds we shall be For thee, my Lord, for thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand Our feet may swiftly carry out Thy commands. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomeni Patri Et Fili Spiritus Sancti. |
| Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 76933812 Chile07/20/2020 01:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Excess mortality analysis have been performed in several countries to try to pinpoint the true death toll of the pandemic. Many countries are said to have a more or less important gap between their official statistics and the true death toll. Among the countries that I have seen showing this gap is my own (true death told is around 14K while officially is 8,5K, as an example. But China has been completely opaque in this regard. This recent pre print tries to cast light on this issue [link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)] Less than 50% The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524. Conclusions: Our study indicates a significant under-reporting in Chinese official data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. The magnitude of discrepancy between our estimates based on cremation related data and Chinese official figures in early February, the critical time for response to the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests the need to reevaluate official statistics from China and consider all available and reasonable data sources for a better understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
