WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Helen Branswell
@HelenBranswell
According to the Worldometer site, the U.S. has already logged more than 4M #Covid19 cases & over 145,000 deaths. The site estimates by Nov. 1 between 186,000 & 231,000 people in this country will have died from Covid, depending on control actions taken.
That's a lot of people.

Just a quick post to let you know one of the persons that works with me fell ill to the virus. He is in his 48s and has A lot of trouble breathing, I haven’t been close to him as we have a protocol for avoid getting infected but he now has to test his family group and will have to go to a quarantine facility. I hope he gets better but he says it’s awfully debilitating.

Pepe, sound like we will experience more and more of people closer to our circle who will get infected.

Hope you and yours will stay safe

That's terrible. You be careful, Red Hot Chilean Pepe. :)

In Italy the average age of positives for the virus is falling, it has reached 43 years.

[link to translate.google.it (secure)]

Thanks for the good wishes, my colleague was in very good health before, and our work is in open spaces, so we really don't know how he got it. Last time I saw him (all with masks and not getting closer) was about 12 days ago so I think I am safe. But he is really scared, never thought it was so bad.

Sorry to hear. Stay safe.

[link to www.ilsole24ore.com (secure)]


Secret report by Italian health Institute says there are 636 outbreaks in Italy

I bet most european countries who are still telling their populations the virus has 'gone' will have quite a few secret reports of case increases.

I am nothing but patient.


Waiting for end of July to beginning of August, when I expect many European countries to show the start of the resurgence, along the ones that are already having a resurgence.


Clearly ALL European countries have dozens of clusters each, the big ones having hundreds, and everyone is doing their best to isolate the clusters, before becoming outbreaks.



And this is happening for weeks already.



But time is running out, the clusters are multiplying, and in 10-12 days max, most European countries will see their cases shut up a lot, compared to June.


This will be the beginning.


Depending on the reactions from the authorities, the pandemic will be either kept under control until October, when it will be uncontrollable, bar lock-downs, or it will keep growing in the similar rate like in the U.S., starting in mid-August.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/23/2020 11:19 AM

italy today

306 cases
10 deaths

Spain : 2,615 new cases in the last 24 hrs.


This is quite a big jump.



Possibly a lot of these new cases are backlogs.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/23/2020 02:38 PM

I saw that earlier but I am waiting to see if they don't change it later, big jumps sometimes are due to recounts, or methodological changes that create quirks on the data. But If it holds through the day, and no clarification is added (sometimes they do later on the day) I agree it was a big jump.

Yeah, I am still waiting to see why such a jump.


I know that Spain doesn't report on Sat and Sun, and drops a big number on Monday, which is for all 3 days : Sat+Sun+Mon.


But today is Thu.


There is no reason to have a backlog.


I think the number is either because their "please behave" tactic in Catalonia failed, and the cases piled up, or they have new outbreaks outside Catalonia.


Either way, looks pretty bad.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/23/2020 02:47 PM

Agreed.

The trend is slowly upwards anyway. Many Spaniards know, some people buys the "it's over" bandwagon, but many others see right through the political BS.

This was published yesterday 7/22:

[link to www.beckershospitalreview.com (secure)]


'Our backs are to the wall': Texas hospital to turn away COVID-19 patients with poor survival chances

"There is nowhere to put these patients. The whole state of Texas and neighboring states have no ICU beds to spare for us," Dr. Vazquez said. The county of 61,000 residents has recorded 1,573 COVID-19 cases and 16 related deaths with 27 fatality cases pending, according to Border Report. As of July 22, 11,461 of 55,263 hospital beds are available statewide, with 1,088 ICU beds open. Currently, Texas has more COVID-19 patients hospitalized than any other state, with 10,848 COVID-19 patients as of July 22.

Last Edited by Clon on 07/23/2020 03:12 PM

Truly sad to see this happening.

I guess George Floyd's funeral in Houston, and the BLM riots are one of the major causes for the spike, many of the places where protest happened in my state are where the spike in cases are happening, sad but true.

Trump's Death Panels.

Most major protests happened in larger cities. It would make sense that that is where the spike are occurring due to population densities. There is little evidence that the protests events directly caused spikes.

Hi DR,

Looks like you are right on regarding the 12 epicenters in the US.

You've talked about this before, but I just want to know if there has been any change in your prediction:

You still foresee a USA national lockdown coming sometime in August? How long would you surmise this lockdown to be?

..Also, forgive me if you have mentioned this previously--but after that lockdown, what is your opinion that would happen?

Is the USA (and the rest of the world) looking at a difficult fall/winter season? To what extent exactly do you see this unfolding.

Thanks again for all of your insight.

PS--Texas cases still on the decline. Oddly, 85% of their hospitalization data went offline yesterday. Hmm...

Have a strong feeling the first state-wide lockdown/stay at home order may be coming again next week here in California. Just when you said, DR. At the end of July to mid-Aug. And others will follow.

Last Edited by Vego on 07/24/2020 12:30 PM

The lock-downs are political decisions.


I do not expect a national lock-down in the U.S., I hope it will be one, because otherwise, the U.S. will be on a fast track to a major clusterfuck in October-November.


What we know, for sure, is once the cold seasons starts, the medical situation in the northern hemisphere will become dire, with huge effects on the economy.


We all know that, and this includes the ones who rule us.



The major problem in deciding a lock-down in mid-August or early September, is that if it will last, let's say, 60 days, it will have to be lifted in mid-October or early November, and that is bang on at the start of the cold season, when things will go haywire, and the lock-down will have to be extended at least until February-March.


Well, if a lock-down starts in September, and will have to stay until Feb-March...there is no way the economy can survive a 5 to 6 month-long lock-down.



The question is : how long can we afford the lock-down, for the economy to survive it, but also lower the pandemic levels to the point of controlling it, both medically and the impact on the economy?



I do not see such lock-down to be over 90 days.



But how can we do it, when the situation is already bad enough now, in the middle of Summer, and the cold season, if we lucky enough, will last 5 months?



I think the governments are planning for a 90 days lock-down in December+January+February. Maybe a bit more, let's say, for the sake of argument, from November 20th to March 10th, 110 days long.


Can we play whack-a-mole local lock-downs, closures of factories, and ofc schools closed, until late November, with results that can "push" us to December, before they decide for a nation-wide lock-down or not?



Only time will tell.



I personally believe that the U.S. (Europe resurgence is just beginning) will be in a pickle by mid to end of August, and I don't know, for the love of God, what the White House will decide to do.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/24/2020 02:55 PM

I agree 100 percent, DR. Things went wild weasel in the US in the summer where it should've been safe to "come up for air."

Now we have to stay above water until October/November going from worse to worst. We have backed ourselves into a wall. Economy will stall after people spend through their lifelines which will only last until September---if that.

There will be no where to turn for help. On the left is financial ruins for lots of people. On the right, will be the virus waiting to take their health.

Scary times, indeed. It's the tip of the iceberg.

I have to give the OP credit. A few months back I disagreed with a lot of what he's been saying. I thought all of this was total crap and the virus was no big deal. My attitude has changed.

Where I'm at in Texas, hospitals are dealing with a huge influx of Covid patients. I am now starting to see friends losing other friends and family to Covid. People of all ages have died, and those who recovered are really struggling to get completely healthy again. This is definitely real. Sad part is I am still bumping heads with a few friends who still think the virus is a hoax, and when I try to tell them otherwise they throw Youtube videos at me of some random Doctor saying how there is no virus, that it's all made up. I don't see how it can be a hoax when I see the virus now entroaching into the lives of people I know.

Either way, good work on this thread OP. Sorry I doubted you.

He also predicted that many people would need to have COVID-19 impact them directly before they'd begin to understand and take it seriously..

It's beginning to take off again in Europe. UK has imposed new quarantine for people coming back from Spain.

Any Sunday update OP?