WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Unlikely.


I will do one on July 31st or August 1st, as a recap of what has happened since reopening, how did it fit with my model, with projections for U.S. and Europe.

Thx

Cases spiking bigly here in Malta.

We had 8 days with zero cases and then last weekend there was a party in a hotel which went badly wrong.

300 people in the same pool, sharing from the same champagne bottle.

A week later they have detected 21 cases so far. This is a small city-state of just under 500,000 people.

The PM just announced there would be no more lockdowns. This won't end well.

UPDATES FROM ITALY

+255 new positive cases.
+5 deaths.
+3 ICU cases.

But hey! Media tell us that everything is under control...
In other words: things are going to get worse.

I think Italy is heading for trouble in the next few weeks.

Agreed...stay safe out there.

I think the same...
I totally trust DR's updates and predictions and, in addition to that, I don't trust italian government and media.
I think my country government is desperately trying to push tourism business and "covering" real positive cases and clusters.

I agree that we are in a waiting game now, and is wise to take a step back and look at data in 15 days increments, as OP wisely is doing.

Data from day to day is meaningless, one has to look at the overall trend. So far the trend is clearly pointing to a potential disaster, but the overall reaction from governments is to ignore it and act as if the crisis would be over and only minor care is needed. This IMO sets conditions that are favoring a steadily worsening situation, as most people tends to normalcy bias, and we know that when people act as if nothing is happening, the virus spreads like wildfire. I think Governments will downplay this as much as they can, waiting until people starts begging for harsh measures.

Thank you for your support Leo.


On July 22nd, I said that I am expecting an outbreak in Italy, similar to the one in Catalonia, Spain, in the next 10-15 days.


This is a very short term prediction, and it might not happen, or it might happen on a smaller scale then Catalonia, but in more locations.


Will we see an outbreak in Italy similar to the one in Catalonia? We will see multiple ones, but smaller in scale? We will see none?


Time will tell.


But I am absolutely expecting Italy's numbers to start going up by August 5th-6th, either because of spread, smaller outbreaks, or a single, bigger one, in a certain area.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/26/2020 02:27 PM

Exactly. The UK 7 day average is on the up turn but the government and media focus on opening gyms and indoor pools!

I understand the need for spread but honesty is the best option.

Out of interest staff in my ambulance trust who were isolating due to medical need were due back to work on August 1st. They have now been to told to continue isolating for the for seeable future!

Its just a waiting game as it was in Feb.

DR I have followed your posts from the beginning. Thank you for all that you have done. I was wondering if you had any thoughts on Louisiana at this time? Our Governor extended Phase 2 for two more weeks and masks are mandated but it has been said that the White House task commission advised that stricter measures be put in place. I guess our Gov disagreed or is choosing to wait. Even back when he issued a stay-at-home order he followed it up by saying it would not be enforced so I don’t have a lot of faith in him taking a strong stand. There’s a big push for the schools to open as well. Would be interested to hear if you have any opinions on our area...if you have time.

The government does everything it can to prevent the sinking of the boat.
I think another italian government couldn't have done better.

I don't have the time to research a specific county or state or region.

It's just too much.



This is why I am talking about the U.S. in general terms. I predicted the resurgence, I predicted the number of epicenters, but I said that I don't know where this resurgence will be or what cities will be the epicenters.


Same for Europe. I can't do a specific country, unless that specific country "benefits" from a major outbreak, and there is plenty of information available about it.


The information coming from the U.S. is already starting to be hard to vet, and that if it's possible to find information.




So, no, I can't say anything about Louisiana, except that the cases will go up, because it is pretty obvious that the cases will go up.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/27/2020 11:04 AM

Thanks for your reply DR!

I guess we will see multiple outbreaks here in Italy for two main reasons.

1) The so-called "trustworthy quarantine" (applied to both italian and foreigners positive cases with mild symptoms) simply doesn't work...
Police Forces found and least three people who where told to stay at home going around in different regions or city for various reasons (work, entertainment, etc.). Now police forces and Health institutions need to track and trace every contact of those people who freely walked around while tested positive...

2) African people coming from Lybia to Italy via sea (illegal immigrants and/or refugees).
We got at least 1000 illegal immigrants / refugees blocked in Lampedusa (small island in Sicily. 6000 inhabitants).
Immigration checkpoint is totally overwhelmed (there is really not enough space and safety conditions for those people)... It's like smoking a cigarette near a gas tank!
One positive case is enough to create a disaster...

Italy

+ 168 New cases
+ 5 deaths

The number of cases is lower than yesterday but the ratio new cases/tests is higher

Italy, one third of companies at risk of survival

[link to www.translatetheweb.com (secure)]

Louisiana is one of our less disciplines states. It is just the state culture. Oddly enough, that laid back nature is much of the wonderful charm of Louisiana, but will also cause them to suffer some nasty clusters, or worse.

Laissez le bon temps rouler

You are a sick person.

Yep you’ve nailed it

The struggle between economics and healthcare is being won by economics, even in my country, I’m sorry to say. A half effectively enforced lockdown has managed to curtail the contagions barely in half. Anyone with proper epidemiology basics knows this is not a very effective curtailment,
but it has been touted as a moderated success that allows the path to begin removal of restrictions, making the point that people has to also help to protect themselves. So, in a few weeks things are basically going to be back to normal, and the soar of infections that will inevitably result will be managed “on an ongoing basis”.

From the side of the population, the harsh economy has Most people willing to run the risk of getting ill. I can’t say I blame them, the economic pressure has become excruciating for most and the politicians are out of moves when the money is already gone and there’s no end in sight.

I have said before that if I knew this was just another flu I would have not made any fuss about it and would have seek getting ill quickly to get over it and forget it. As clearly this virus is not anything as known before, and we really don’t have enough answers about its long term effects, I am really bummed because I see the economic pressure making everyone want to quickly put things back to normal, and this makes my own efforts to stay away from the contagion, much harder.

I only hope to be able to not get ill. This is becoming really a full time worry as the virus is widespread in my city and most people that don’t get really badly ill tend to brush it as “just a flu”.

The economics are already Effed up enough and the world was convoluted enough Even before the pandemic, so I really hope something makes people come to their senses soon, or this thing will infect everyone before we truly understand how dangerous It is long term.

And just as I was talking about long term effects of this, I found this on a thread published today here at GLP:



One can argue that a sample of 100 mild cases is small to draw a conclusion extrapolable to a wider population of mild COVID-19 cases, but it is big enough to warrant further assesment.

" It's official: research that found infectious SARS-CoV-2 in air samples has been peer-reviewed: "significant environmental contamination in rooms [....]"

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

Hardly news for us, but at least some people that don't believe anything until is published in Nature, should start paying more attention.

Not news, per se, but some very ungood information.

"In the hospital NBU, where patients were generally less mobile, distribution of positive samples suggests a strong influence of airflow. "

"the data is suggestive that viral aerosol particles are produced by individuals that have the COVID-19 disease, even in the absence of cough. First, in the few instances where the distance between individuals in isolation and air sampling could be confidently maintained at greater than 6 ft, 2 of the 3 air samples were positive for viral RNA. Second, 58.3% of hallway air samples indicate that virus-containing particles were being transported from the rooms to the hallway during sampling activities. It is likely that the positive air samples in the hallway were caused by viral aerosol particles transported or resuspended by personnel exiting the room13,14. Finally, personal air samplers worn by sampling personnel were all positive for SARS-CoV-2, despite the absence of cough by most patients while sampling personnel were present. Recent literature investigating human-expired aerosol suggests that a large fraction is less than 10 µm in diameter across all types of activity (e.g. breathing, talking, and coughing15) and that upper respiratory illness increases production of aerosol particles (less than 10 µm)16. A recent study of SARS-CoV-2 stability indicates that infectious aerosol may persist for several hours and on surfaces for as long as 2 days"

UPDATES FROM ITALY

+382 positive cases
+3 deaths



Today we surpassed the 200/300 cases per day that we have seen in the past weeks.

I am very very worried about my country...

I also must tell that I am starting to hear positive cases linked to my circle of friends/colleagues/family.

The barber of one of my colleagues tested positive 3 days ago (the man woke up in the morning coughing and with a body temperature of 39.0C°).
Now my colleague is quarantined at home (along with his family) and will do the test in the next few days.
(Fortunately I haven't had direct contacts with my colleague)

Last Edited by Leonero on 07/30/2020 11:37 AM

We are all in the same boat here. Romania is shooting up big time, in cases, hospitalizations and ICU usage. We're adding about 30 new people / day in ICU, and the rate increase is substantial.

We won't be able to cope with such increase in ICU for long, maybe 4 weeks, if the rate increase is going to keep the last 2 weeks trend, but much shorter if it keeps increasing like it did in the last week.


As I said previously, I am expecting Italy's numbers to go up by August 5-6th, and the numbers are starting to creep up, not as much as other European countries, but I expect this to change in the next few days.


My fear is that Italy is going to be in a worse position this fall, compared to spring, because the virus is very, very widespread in Italy, basically it is covering virtually the entire peninsula, and at this moment in time, the number of cases might be low, but the cases are no longer concentrated in an area, like Lombardy was, but are spread to multiple areas, probably dozens.


I don't think Italy will be able to control all the clusters that are currently in place and about to burst, without localized lock-downs.


Will see how things will evolve, because localized lock-downs will not stop the pandemic, but merely delay it in the areas that will be locked-down.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/30/2020 12:12 PM

Same is the case for Germany, upward trend is confirmed, today 912 new cases. Even new cases in the northernmost state (Schleswig-Holstein), which only had very few cases in spring. In the last weeks we had 2000-2500/week, now sharp increase. We are in the middle of summer holidays, in the southern states the holidays just begun, which means lots of travel in the next 4-6 weeks within the country. I fear the same problem here in most of the European countries.

BTW, thanks for the excellent work!!! I have been following this for a long time, you have been spot on.