WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Greece have indeed very few cases, per capita. A ton of countries have very few cases, and the differences between them are massive.

The pandemic have nothing to do with size, geographical location, winds, mountains, etc. The pandemic is strictly related to human-to-human transmission, and this transmission is increased or decreased with the frequency and duration of human interaction.


Greece, like most countries, locked-down in very early stages. Ofc their numbers are low, like most countries.


But let's take a look at Greece in the last 2 months vs the previous 2 months.

Greece added 2,372 cases from June 8th to August 8th.

How many cases they added between April 8th to June 8th? Only 1,165 cases.


In total, Greece have 5,421 cases, since February 25th, when they registered the fist official case. Out of these 5,421 cases, registered in the last 5 and a half months, 2,372 were added in the last 2 months.

3,049 cases in 3 and half months (which is roughly 29 cases / day) vs 2,372 cases in the last 2 months (which is roughly 39 cases / day).



Clearly Greece is witnessing a strong resurgence, which is even more clear if we do a month-by-month analysis.

In Greece, as well as in most countries, the pandemic is just started, because most countries locked-down very very early, and the pandemic was almost fully stopped.

Same with southern Italy. It went into lock-down in same time with the rest of the country.



But now, everyone reopened, and it shows that the cases are going up, big time (compared to previous periods of time) everywhere.


It is all related to human interaction and behavior. Fomites play a very small role, so small, it doesn't even matter.


As long as the population is wearing masks and keeps the interaction as low as possible, we can control the pandemic.


As I said, masks do not slow the pandemic, just the viral load. Less viral load = less symptoms, which in turn means more asymptomatic and more mild cases, hence, less people actually getting testing, unless they are a contact of a detected case.


Mask wearing + low human interaction = less official cases.

Simple as that, and this is the explanation why official cases rise or drop.


But that won't last long, because people will lower their guard if they see the official numbers drop (while not understanding that the real cases keep growing), and more and more will show symptoms, having more chances to being detected by official testing.

DR-
Thanks for providing your thoughts.
I hope you feel better soon!

Last Edited by Guythu on 08/09/2020 09:04 AM

Malta should be considered an official epicenter of the virus in Europe.

[link to www.independent.com.mt (secure)]

Eight teenagers have tested positive for Covid-19 in Italy after returning to the country from a week-long holiday in Malta, Italian media reported on Sunday.

Italian media reported that the boys, who are aged between 17 and 19, returned to Italy and developed flu symptoms on 7 August.

Cases here going crazy. Another 54 today (equivalent to 6500 in Italy or France). The nightclubs, bars, and restaurants still full though. Masks only worn by 50% in shops. Prime Minister refused to wear a mask until the last few days. He said a couple of months ago that 'the only waves are in the sea' and to 'go out and enjoy the summer'.

It’s clear that the insistence on prioritizing the economic activity is being the problem in the case of Malta. But is a shortsighted attitude as if it becomes clear that people traveling there come back infected, travel bans will ensue and t he economy activity will tank no matter what.

Dr so you don't believe it's airborne? Or have I misunderstood?

This is operating on an assumption that ACE2 is the only door.

It’s going to bite so many in the bumbum.

That really is a moot point..... it’s highly contagious and is spreadable by asymptomatic folks too.

NZ probably has cases that they don’t even know about. Or no one is brave enough to come forward.

It is airborne, in the sense that the virus is inside droplets from breathing, talking, coughing, sneezing.

But outdoors, in direct sunlight, the virus is deactivated in basically minutes, depending on how hot it is and how powerful the sunlight is.


Indoors, the virus is going to be active for tens of minutes.


Now, since it's airborne, the eyes are an entry way, but the eyes exposure is far less dangerous then mouth and nose exposure. Firstly, the viral load is much less lower if only the eyes are exposed, and secondly, the mouth and nose are directly linked with the lungs, while eyes are not.



Masks help in doors, more like they do outdoors. Wearing a mask outdoors is stupid, unless it's an outdoor, very busy market, or a concert, or a busy beach, etc.


Again, masks do not reduce the risk of being infected, for most masks (exceptions being N95 and better), they only reduce the viral load upon exposure.


But the viral load, if small, it will usually end up with asymptomatic cases or mild cases. Most official cases are detected upon hospitalization (hence, greater viral load) or because contact tracing.


When viral load is small, virtually all those infected (depending on age, immune system strength, other health issues) will be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, hence, they will not go to a hospital, or even go get tested willingly, escaping the official detection...but they are still carriers and contagious.



You misunderstood, probably because you haven't paid attention.


My entire model is based on the virus being inside airborne droplets, and human-to-human transmission. If the virus would not be in airborne droplets, it would be a nothingburger.

Today I purchased from online India pharmacy Hydroxychoquine, and z packs for 4 people. Cost plus shipping was $46.00 Zpacks alone would cost me that in winter with my copay

Found this pharmacy following Dr. Zelenski

The reason I got them now is because I don't know if my own personal family doctor would prescribe for early onset symptoms

My daughter in law works in a Nursing Home as the manager, just yesterday they found out one of the nurses was moonlighting at another hospital (forbid activity) and there has been a huge outbreak at that hospital....hence Nurse was infected and came into their sterile nursing home with it

My daughter in laws nursing home has not allowed in person visits inside the home, they take them outside and allow them to sit 6 feet away from visitor and only one visitor at a time

Now she had to go into work and test all the patients and staff again

She said this nurse had been in her office so I have NO idea how contagious she could be to my daughter in law.

What’s the doseage for early symptoms?

If I may attempt to add a bit of clarification to a place of confusion. CDC defines the classifications for types of transmissions of infections. There are 5 types. One is droplets another is airborne.

The language has evolved from what use to be 'respiratory'. Respiratory then broke down into two categories; droplets and airborne.

Hospitals found they could CHEAPLY deal with a large amount of respiratory infections by labeling them as 'droplet' with paper and antibiotics.

The cost for treating 'airborne' is a whole new ballgame. Reverse air flow rooms, space age respirators and triple the staff on and on, Thus the CDC, WHO etc are reluctant to validate Sars-CoV-2 as airborne.

The confusion is deliberate.

Thank you DT for the thread.

Been there. Praying you feel better soon. Food poisoning sucks. After the purge is finished, you will feel like shit for another week, or at least I did. Please stay hydrated.

Mine was from bad seafood.

DR what do you think about Argentina? We are in the middle of the winter, winter finish 21 of september. Now we have 6k, 7k cases per day but no more than that. Do you think we have reached the peak? I dont think that we are living the Armageddon that will face for example USA and Europe when the winter start there. The hospitals are at 65% of capacity in all the country. Do you think that when winter finish will be better or will be more bad?

the WHO and CDC are indeed delaying the classification of SARS2 as airborne transmission due to the hard economic fallout that will follow

in addition to a hospital's extra burdened staff, PPE supplies, airflow systems and etc, the airborne SARS2 rule book will severely restrict:

schools
workplaces
bars
nightclubs
movie theaters
shopping
public transportation
air travel
child care
team sports
concerts
festivals
dental care

the list one could compile of just the economic disruptions caused by airborne SARS2 transmission is pretty much infinite

will the WHO and CDC spit in the face of hard science in order to avoid years of restrictions that will guarantee a global economic shit storm?

are the WHO and CDC unequivocally beholden to their political masters and not empirical science?

will they forfeit science for politics and economics?

This virus doesn't care about warmer weather. It spreads human-to-human, mostly by breathing the same air.

Masks reduce the viral load, so they reduce the hospitalizations.

Distancing reduces the R0.


The above 2 things are the ONLY ONES who dictate how the pandemic will evolve.


Cold weather or warm weather don't make the virus spread faster or better, nor the viral load.However, cold weather lowers the immune system, which makes it more open to infection. The same viral load in the warm weather will be much more dangerous in cold weather.



The Southern Hemisphere doesn't have a Winter. It is called a Winter, but except very remote areas, with very few people, virtually no one experience the same Winter in the Southern Hemisphere, as those in the Northern Hemisphere.


There will be no change in the Southern Hemisphere due to weather. Only masks and distancing will make a difference.


In the North, when Winter is coming (the Winter with snow and negative temperatures, not the mild Spring that is called Winter in the South), this will be a major issue.



The other part of this pandemic is the economy. The world economy is basically concentrated in the the Norther Hemisphere : U.S., Europe, Russia, China, India, Japan, etc., and most of those countries have a proper Winter.

India is always hot...and their cases are growing with the number of tests.



Economically, if we in the North shut-down, it matters not what Argentina, or Brazil or Australia or New Zealand do in terms of the pandemic. Not that the Summer will have any effect, because it doesn't, I am just pointing out why the Southern Hemisphere is irrelevant in this pandemic, both economically, and weather-wise in terms of cases.


The pandemic will not slow with warmer weather, or accelerate with colder weather. But with colder weather, and I mean COLDER (Northern Hemisphere Winter), the immune system is weaker, and many more people will need hospitalization.



Southern hemisphere won't see any changes in cases due to weather.

DR my post got buried back on page 240 or 239, what are your thoughts of this,

Mathematically, it is correct. Realistically, it is not.


If everyone is going to get infected, and will gain immunity after infection, and won't get infected again or the virus doesn't reactivate, we will end up with almost 300 million dead, in about 252 years.


As you can see, completely unrealistic. Mathematically correct, realistically, far from it.


If I consider my model, we already have 1.1 billion people infected, and the death rate around 1.8% (most likely way lower, under 1.5%), so almost 20 million dead to date.


It might sound impossible, to have almost 20 million dead in the last 7 months, since the official number is under 750,000.

But it is entirely possible, since we have China (millions dead, but they hide the truth), India (millions dead, but they aren't able to test, register and count them, because of how poor, unorganized and logistically impaired), Africa (millions dead as well, same reasons as India, poor, unorganized and logistically impaired) Latin and South America (millions dead as well, not as poor as India, but equally unorganized and logistically impaired).


Just the Above 2 countries and 2 continents alone have easily over 10 million dead, virtually all of them undetected as covid-19 deaths.


Europe, U.S., Japan and other developed countries missed hundreds of thousands of Covid-19 deaths in December, January and February, adding them to flu, or simply the underlying health issue as cause of death.

Corruption and pressure to reopen were the cause of hiding more deaths.


If anyone thinks that 20 million dead in 7 months cannot be EASILY hidden, is dreaming.

That is roughly 2.8 million deaths per month.



For example, the U.S. share of the population in the world is 4.35%, which would amount to 121,800 Covid-19 deaths per month.

Around 250,000 people die each month in the U.S., from all causes. In the last 7 months, the U.S. registered 165,000 deaths from Covid-19, which means roughly 23,500 Covid-19 deaths per month.


There should be a difference or almost 100k deaths, if my numbers are correct. I should mention that the death rate from Covid-19 could be lower then 1.8%, but for now, 1.8% seems reasonable. But the difference between 1.8% and 1.5% is massive.


So, could the U.S. deliberately or accidentally, or both, hide almost 100k deaths per month?


Well, let's see.


There are 54,000 monthly deaths from Heart Diseases.
There are 7,000 monthly deaths from Diabetes.
There are 13,300 monthly Chronic lower respiratory diseases.
There are 4,600 monthly deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia.

Overall, around 79,000 people die every month, in the U.S., from diseases and other causes that can be accidentally or intentionally misdiagnosed.


I said CAN, because I have no proof that they are.


Mathematically, even with a 1.8% death rate, it is possible that the U.S. could hide 100,000 Covid-19 deaths every month.



HOWEVER, and this is where things get much more easier to understand.

China, India, Africa, Latin and South America would easily have many more deaths from Covid-19 then their population share in the world, which will make the U.S., Europe and other developed countries have LESS deaths compared to their population share in the world.


And if we use a mortality rate of 1.5% or less, the numbers become much smaller, and much more easier to hide and/or misdiagnose (for developed countries), and much easier to escape detection (underdeveloped countries).



I gave you this long ass reply to make you understand that the numbers are NOT frightening, and the virus death rate is IRRELEVANT, as I have been saying since the beginning.


This virus, by itself, can kill 5%, or 0%, or 10% of those it infects, we won't have any problems whatsoever, as a society.


Our problem is not the virus ability to KILL, but it's ability to INFECT and send people to hospitals for WEEKS.


And that is when the number of dead people can easily surpass many times more the virus innate ability to kill. I am not saying it will, but it can easily do it.

Thanks for your answer to Storm2come DR.

Certainly many people will probably react in a Knee Jerk fashion to the idea that the virus might have killed 20 million people. I have been following the “excess deaths” reports and have seen that there is at least an excess death of 200K in a number of countries during the pandemic that have not been accounted for. And this is in countries that have some sort of good enough records of total deaths, and also not considering that some causes of death have been diminished by the lock downs.

Ecuador’s president, as an example, acknowledged on national TV back in April that they had over 10K dead when they official figures stated no more tha 3,5K and said that they were simply unable to keep better records as they were overwhelmed. Imagine this 100x times worst in countries like India or in many places of Africa where people dies of diseases all the time and nobody bats an eye. South Africa, which is probably the less undeveloped country of Africa, and provides probably the less unreliable information, is totally overwhelmed by deaths.

In the case of China, albeit there’s no way to know due to its politically driven opacity of information (all news and information controlled to make the CCP look good), we have seen hints that things were very bad. There’s no way to know for sure the true death toll over there.

i understand the idea that the hospitalization matters more than the death #. and a collapse of society will push death rate higher. how did DR get the 252 years for the 300 million dead? if the virus continued to spread and infect ppl it would speed up.

i did math way back in the beginning. took the US death rate projected from an EMP. adjusted it with the lights staying on. there are many other factors between an EMP scenario and the virus pandemic that are similar. then ran that # thru the world population. so my # was total deaths both directly and indirectly from the virus. i did this end of JAN way before other countries went to lockdowns so those were not taken into consideration.

my # might b low and over-conservative due to re-infections and long term effects from the virus itself. i have not gone back to re-adjust it with lockdowns.

to me with exponential spread the #'s should go up and speed up over time. i understand with lockdowns we slow the spread. if society stays in this roller coaster limbo of lockdowns and opening,we slow the virus. over time with contact tracing, we should eradicate it from some areas. however,we also are running out of goods and food. so i do not think society as a whole can maintain this yoyo pace very long. let alone the ppl themselves are getting tired of it and failing to adhere to the guidelines and social disatncing.

252 years, because mathematically, it's correct.


If we consider all the numbers we are given true, then yes, it will take 252 years to reach 300 million dead. But that is only mathematical. Obviously is not realistic...and I have already said it is not.


If I look at my model, it will take us aprox. 4 years until we get to 100% infection rate. The number of dead, if all the data now remains unchanged, will be aprox. 100 million dead by mid-2024.


The problem is, we are just at the beginning, there is no immunity, and winter is coming.


If we get past this winter in one piece (slim chances), we can talk numbers again.



There is no way to project numbers for more then 3 months, and be correct. No one can do it, it is impossible.


Best projections will be made after March, 2021, when we've experienced the second wave, in the middle of the winter, we will have a much clearer image of how good the immunity is, and if it is good, how long it lasts, how will the schools opening will impact the pandemic, if we will have a second lock-down and how long it will last if we do have it again, and a bunch of other things that NOW are unknowns.



My own projections, based on my model, have been pretty good because they are limited in time. I have NO IDEA how the pandemic will look at the end of this year.


All I know is that by October, things will be really bad, and the options at hand will be two : another lock-down (bye bye civilized world) or let the virus run amok in the middle of the Winter (bye bye civilized world).


There is no 3rd option.


As I predicted months ago, they will play whack-a-mole with localized lock-downs, all the way to October, until they, and everyone else, will see that such approach doesn't work.


I am 100% sure that schools will be open, everywhere, and this is going to be the "green light" for everyone to finish their preps for the Winter.


Once the schools open, there is no going back. By mid-October it will be clusterfuck+.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/10/2020 01:33 PM

i agree,i see no way society and govern's can stay intact with this yoyo lockdowns. i think with CHINA offline more is running out and lockdowns delay the inevitable. 3-5 yrs to get to herd-immunity which i don't think is a real option. even to get there based on how ppl are,i think the virus has to b 100 times as bad. if it gets that out of control,i expect cashiers and medical workers to quit.then we could lose power and city services as well. game on at that point to mad max.

i do know the govern's are good at kick the can. i think they have few options left since they have done the kicking economically for too long. much comes down to how the ppl react once they realize the truth and how misled they are cause of TPTB.

Hello DR,

Thanks for your updates and information.

I'm a little naive to all of this, but it looks like the virus is on the decline in the USA. The southern states reached a plateau a few weeks ago, things seem to be declining at a steady pace.

Do you still foresee things getting hairy during the fall and winter? Last I read, you mentioned a possible national lockdown come October. You also mentioned that the USA should, (but wouldn't) lockdown until then. But it looks like there is no need for a lockdown now, so I'm wondering if you still thing there will be a surge of cases and need for lockdown during the fall/winter.

In an above post, you mentioned that mild fall/winter in the South won't be as big of a problem. Does that mean that the Southern states in the USA won't be as bad as the north?

It seems like the MSM has shifted gears during the past 1-2 weeks, not pushing the crisis as much.

I'm just wondering if you think maybe things are getting better, maybe we won't see a big crisis in the next few months?

Please advise, I'm trying to figure out what/how I should prepare if I need to.

Thanks

Opening schools.


This is what they are pushing now. Can't push the crisis, have to push the school opening. Hence, the cases go down.


It's not hard to lower or rise the number of cases, it's quite easy actually.


Just choose how to test and who, and when to report. Obviously, measures like mandatory masks help with hospitalizations, hence, they are also down.


Nothing has changed.


Make no mistake, come October, with colder weather and especially with schools being open all over the world (it is a global move), the pandemic will be massive, on top of seasonal flu.

That makes sense. Thank you, just wanted to confirm.

Also... this is CLYMER. You unblocked me, but I still can't post to this thread. Any way to fix that? My proxy expires in a few days. Thanks.

DR, I hope you are feeling better! Glad you are back!

@CLYMER. It should be fine now for you to post.

Cheers SN !

I want to touch the school opening issue, which is a very complex topic, and not only that, but I can't figure it out yet why are they so adamant in opening the schools.


I mean, I see a lot of reasons why they want the schools open, but which one is it?


First reason is the most obvious one : students have to learn. I can't accept this a valid reason, when put against the infection risks, because having classes online is a solution, short term. Why not have all classes online, until the damn cold season is over? 6 months of online classes is not the end of the world.


The second reason is social. The school institution is not just for learning, it is also for socializing with your peers, and gain the necessary social skills needed later on in life.

But, the same solution of online classes, for 6 months, is not going to transform the kids in antisocial fanatics.


The third reason is parents. Parents, as well as children, need their time-off. The tensions between parents and children that spend too much time together, will grow to levels that are stressful enough for both parents and children.


Now, this is a very valid reason to open the schools. Paired with the need to develop social skills, kids kinda have to go back to school. The problem that arises is how can we do it safely, so we won't close the schools again, and go back to square one?



The fourth reason is economical : parents, or one of them, can't go to work if the child/children don't go to school. Can't afford to lose a job, especially now. Online classes won't solve this issue, because kids will be home, so...yeah.


The fifth reason is a devilish one, but whether we like it or not, before we find a solution, we need to see how the virus spreads if kids are back to school in certain conditions.

I, personally, do not agree with this type of approach, but feelings and emotions aside...we have to do it. We have to open the schools, because if we don't, we won't see which solution is working for kids to go safely back to school.


My personal view is that schools should NOT open until March 2021, at the earliest. Safest way is to suspend the impending academic year entirely. But that is just my own view.




Now, before getting to next possible reasons to open the schools, let's assume that they genuinely want schools to be open because they care about our children.


To safely open the schools, there aren't many practical options. Mandatory mask wearing, far from practical. As an adult, I can probably wear a mask for 1 hour, tops, before I have to change it. Not an issue, to change a mask every hour. Big issue if I have to wear masks for 5 hours. It is stressful enough to wear it for 1 hour.

Social distancing in class. Doable, if the class is spacey enough, or the students are split in 2 shifts. Problem is, they still have to wear mask. Second problem is teachers, they have work twice as long. No teacher can handle 8-10 hours of classes for more then a week. Ask any teacher, they know how difficult is to work even 4-5 hours / day with kids.

Hiring double the amount of teachers? Maybe in 2 years, now it's impossible, not enough qualified personal. But in 2 years, the pandemic might be gone or be severely diminished.


Having students split in 2 halves, one going to school for 1 week, the other learning online, and swap next week...sounds good, in theory. Problem is, one of the parents that have under 16 yo. children will have to quit its job, or work around his job depending on the school schedule.


The biggest issue with any solution to open the schools, that comes with mask wearing and social distancing for children, is the MASSIVE STRESS that will be induced on children and teachers, as well as on parents.

One one hand, any student under the age of 13-14, that is forced to wear a mask for 4-5 hours, forced to keep its distance to ANYONE ELSE, ALL THE TIME, for 4-5 hours, and being PUNISHED if he/she doesn't, is going to be shockingly stressed.

More that that, WHO exactly is going to FORCE children aged 7 to 10, to actually COMPLY with masks and social distancing for 4 hours? Are we going to hire muscles for every damn class? Teachers will go nuts trying to separate kids during breaks. They can't handle it. Kids will want to play, talk, etc., and when they do, because they WILL, who is going to stop them? Who is going to punish them...and HOW? Will parents put up with punishments?

Now even going to go into how the kids go from home to school and back, nor the lunch time.That is another nightmare situation.


And even if EVERYTHING is going to go exactly as dreamed (because man, whoever thinks schools can function like this is dreaming), the virus will STILL SPREAD. Maybe not in first week, maybe not in the second. But it will in the third.



Enough. Let's go to reason no.6.


Reason 6 : there is a plan in place to cull us, and best and quickest way to do it is open the schools. Or they want us to be sick and sell us drugs and vaccines for life...again, best and quickest way is to open schools.


If this is their reason, well, we're pretty much fucked.\


Reason no.7, which is the one I think is the REAL DEAL : they KNOW that there is no way out, except a second lock-down during winter. A 5 month lock-down (Nov-March), at best, if not 6 months (Oct-March / Nov-Apr), or 7 months (Oct-Apr). Could be less then 5 months, but I don't see it, really.


But how to lock-down again if there aren't enough cases, if the hospitals aren't full, plenty of dead, in one word, SHTF, medically speaking, so people won't massively revolt against it? (Some revolts are fine, just keep'em small).


Easy : they open the schools, nature will do the rest, and they will blame the kids and the parents for not being disciplined enough.


To be as objective as I can be, here is the reason no.8 :

We should just live our lives, let the virus do its thing, save the economy, who dies dies, who lives lives, and let's get over this.


I am not going to comment on the reason no.8., I just know it is out there, and MOST agree with this reason. Romania had a poll regarding schools opening, with tens of thousands voting.The question was : "Do you think that kids should go back to school?".


70% voted yes.



Schools will be opened. The virus will spread. They will keep the schools open REGARDLESS of the number of cases, for about 4-5 weeks, when the situation will become dire.

Second lock-down after mid-October.

Everywhere.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/11/2020 01:59 PM

Thanks for that. IMO they are going for Option 7, and the School opening is key on achieving the mass fear status that would allow the lock down to happen without much protests, because right now most people if not everyone thinks option 8 is viable. That's all fine and dandy, until people you holt most dear die or is crippled badly because of the disease.

We will all see, and many will learn, in a few months.

Hope your gut is getting better DR. Have a great week.

I think the main reason is the number 4

I suspect this is the real reason of the lockdown in Italy. In February schools had been closed but parents had to go to work. But they couldn't let the kids alone... The situation was unsustainable and the government had to put all the workers on the state's payroll

If the schools don't open parents can't go to work. That's so simple