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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/14/2020 06:07 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to rep.repubblica.it (secure)]

italian scientific commettee says at school if you have a mask there's no need of distancing

the commettee says also that the reason is otherwise it would be impossible to open the schools

i don't know how this commettee can be defined "scientific"
miabelieves

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08/14/2020 06:20 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
just thinking, why hasn't the homeless been overtaken by the china virus? Could it be they are outside not enclosed in area and/or don't get that close to others?
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
NawtyBits

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08/14/2020 10:00 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to nypost.com (secure)]

Dr. Fauci says aiming for herd immunity would lead to ‘enormous’ death toll

Dr. Anthony Fauci warned about a staggering death toll from the coronavirus, particularly among vulnerable people, if the US allows the infections to sweep across the country in a bid to achieve possible herd immunity.
WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
Oscanator

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08/14/2020 12:08 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Most retarded thread on the interwebs...

What a loser you are OP... total frikin' loser...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1470510


You are a fuckingtardsbus
NawtyBits

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08/14/2020 04:29 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to thehill.com (secure)]

CDC gives three-month window of immunity after COVID-19 infection



A person who has recovered from COVID-19 will likely be safe from re-infection for three months, according to updated guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The information marks the first acknowledgement of a defined immunity period for people who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection.

Prior research has shown antibodies from recovered patients will fade over the course of a few months, but federal scientists had not previously said what that means for immunity.

The CDC previously recommended that someone recovered from a COVID-19 infection doesn't need to be re-tested for three months so long as that person is asymptomatic, but made clear that any correlation to immunity was still unknown.

[snip]

According to the agency, people who have been in close contact with someone who has COVID-19 need to quarantine for 14 days, except people who have had COVID-19 within the past 3 months.
WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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08/15/2020 05:51 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Does the OP have an opinion on the supposed FINISHED AND READY FOR ROLL OUT COVID-19 vaccine courtesy of Russia? Putin's family has already been injected lol
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79253209


... or so we are told?

No known side effects.

:COVID Putin:

Last Edited by LJS on 08/15/2020 05:56 PM
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ-A

Killer Bunny
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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08/15/2020 08:44 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Does the OP have an opinion on the supposed FINISHED AND READY FOR ROLL OUT COVID-19 vaccine courtesy of Russia? Putin's family has already been injected lol
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79253209


... or so we are told?

No known side effects.

:COVID Putin:
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


LMAO

Great meme LJS!

Great sense of humor.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
SWOOPSTER

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08/15/2020 09:02 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Does the OP have an opinion on the supposed FINISHED AND READY FOR ROLL OUT COVID-19 vaccine courtesy of Russia? Putin's family has already been injected lol
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79253209


... or so we are told?

No known side effects.

:COVID Putin:
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


1rof1

Good one!!!
Thanks for the laugh.
~S~
Anonymous Coward
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08/16/2020 03:40 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Dr I'd like to ask you about russia

Russia has every day 5k cases. Every day. I suspect these numbers are fake. Or putin doesn't want to spend money on tests and has ordered to communicate every day the same number. In other words he is trolling the world
Anonymous Coward
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08/16/2020 07:18 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Wow - this thread is amazing

So much info , thanks D R for putting this all together , must be time consuming

I am blessed that my 17 year old will be continuing with his studies online as the local college has upped and moved 15 miles away.

My boy is exempt from travelling as he was awarded 10 points on a PIP tribunal earlier this year due to Autism and anxiety related issues.

There is a distinct lull around , I feel that people around me have resumed normal lives and I am the weird one that is seeing worst case scenarios.

All stocked up here with Winter coats/boots/clothes etc and prepped with food related items.

There is no way I would be sending any child of mine back to school in September , grandson starts his secondary education and my daughter just thinks I am crazy.
Martha Edwards

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08/16/2020 07:19 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Forgot to log in - above post was me
Breezing through life
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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08/16/2020 08:18 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Dr I'd like to ask you about russia

Russia has every day 5k cases. Every day. I suspect these numbers are fake. Or putin doesn't want to spend money on tests and has ordered to communicate every day the same number. In other words he is trolling the world
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79271267



I do not think the numbers from Russia are fake, in the sense that they are finding more cases but announce less.

Clearly there are more then 5k cases / day in Russia, the same way there are more then 50k / day in Brazil.


Every country have it's specifics population, urban areas and travelling patterns within the country.


Russia can be compared with Canada, huge countries, with a handful of big cities, and a very low population density. However, there is also an important difference : most people in Russia rarely travel outside their home towns.


Another difference is in testing volume. Russia tests A LOT, they did it from the very start, and this gave them the ability to detect clusters before becoming endemic.


When the pandemic started in Russia, their policy was clear : massive testing, detect clusters and isolate them. And Russia isolates, they don't mess around.


Most cases in Russia are in Moscow and St.Petersburg, their biggest cities. The case evolution is very slowly going down, which shows that Russia is able to quickly deal with clusters in smaller cities, bar Moscow and St.Petersburg.


The simple fact that most Russians do not travel outside their hometowns, allowed Russia to bring the pandemic at controllable levels and isolating towns and cities were not a problem.


Most countries downward curves are very steep, Russia's isn't. Russia's downward curve is how it is supposed to look for every other country : a very slow downward curve.


I think Russia, while clearly having more cases then reported, is actually the only country in the world that shows a NORMAL evolution and devolution of the pandemic.
Anonymous Coward
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Lithuania
08/17/2020 12:56 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Hi all.

Terrible update from Spain.

Thread: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774) (Page 16)

siren2 siren2 siren2

Spain Update


(@matthewbennett)

BREAK: Spanish Health Ministry includes more than 16,000 new coronavirus cases since Friday.


- Difference totals: +16,629
- "Previous day": 1,833
- 7-day total: 32,329
- 14-day total: 59,162



[link to twitter.com (secure)]



Health Ministry has just announced 16,000 new cases, up to nearly 60,000 in total in past two weeks, and Simón says goal is to get back to school in September "with the lowest level of tranmission" possible. The graph is just going up....

[link to twitter.com (secure)]



There are now 1,019 active clusters across Spain, according to today's Health Ministry pdf. Number and graph just going up...

[link to twitter.com (secure)]



Safe to say Spain is going wild weasel...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78247409
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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08/17/2020 01:16 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Hi all.

Terrible update from Spain.

Thread: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774) (Page 16)

siren2 siren2 siren2

Spain Update


(@matthewbennett)

BREAK: Spanish Health Ministry includes more than 16,000 new coronavirus cases since Friday.


- Difference totals: +16,629
- "Previous day": 1,833
- 7-day total: 32,329
- 14-day total: 59,162



[link to twitter.com (secure)]



Health Ministry has just announced 16,000 new cases, up to nearly 60,000 in total in past two weeks, and Simón says goal is to get back to school in September "with the lowest level of tranmission" possible. The graph is just going up....

[link to twitter.com (secure)]



There are now 1,019 active clusters across Spain, according to today's Health Ministry pdf. Number and graph just going up...

[link to twitter.com (secure)]



Safe to say Spain is going wild weasel...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78247409

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78247409


As Deplorable Recollector predicted, but even worse because is happening faster and authorities don’t want to acknowledge.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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08/17/2020 03:42 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Spain numbers are worrying, but not as much as the number of clusters they have : over 1,000.


We are entering the last 2 weeks of August, and I predicted, according to my model, that the resurgence will start in Europe at the end of July, and be established by the end of August, while September and forward are going to be bonkers.


We are 14 days away from September 1st.


Europe is going to really explode in the next 14 days...but that won't stop the governments to open up schools, as I was expecting since about 2 months now, when I realized that the next lock-down won't be possible unless everyone is going to accept them, as a last resort.


And the last resort will come because the pandemic will be intentionally let loose, with schools as the key vector.


If the schools will stay open by mid-October (which I expect to be the case), second round of lock-downs are basically certain.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/17/2020 04:40 PM
CLYMER

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08/17/2020 06:23 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Spain numbers are worrying, but not as much as the number of clusters they have : over 1,000.


We are entering the last 2 weeks of August, and I predicted, according to my model, that the resurgence will start in Europe at the end of July, and be established by the end of August, while September and forward are going to be bonkers.


We are 14 days away from September 1st.


Europe is going to really explode in the next 14 days...but that won't stop the governments to open up schools, as I was expecting since about 2 months now, when I realized that the next lock-down won't be possible unless everyone is going to accept them, as a last resort.


And the last resort will come because the pandemic will be intentionally let loose, with schools as the key vector.


If the schools will stay open by mid-October (which I expect to be the case), second round of lock-downs are basically certain.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I have to give you for kudos again. I remember you predicting there would be a backlog of cases dumped in Texas, and low and behold...60k cases dumped in Texas today.

You still see USA being on track for explosion in the next 30 days, due to schools reopening, etc? October lockdown?

Thanks again DR. Stay safe/healthy.
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
08/19/2020 09:09 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
It seems europe is exploding with cases. All of Europe except italy
Saskafrass

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08/19/2020 09:50 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, I have been following you since you first started your informational journey on this topic.
I have been commenting and thanking you anonymously, once again I thank you for your work.
Your information, analysis and conclusions are very handy to use when trying to make my own decisions and plans.
Thank you once again.
Leonero

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Italy
08/19/2020 11:12 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
It seems europe is exploding with cases. All of Europe except italy
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79281389


Just wait a couple of weeks... I was looking at the worldometers graphs and it looks like we are 2 or 3 weeks behind Spain: the 7 day average graph is going to look exactly like the spanish one.
And I think it is coherent with DR's prediction.


UPDATES FROM ITALY
+ 642 positive cases
+ 7 deaths
+ 8 ICU

[link to images.app.goo.gl (secure)]

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/19/2020 11:13 AM
Ad Omnia Paratus
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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08/19/2020 12:02 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
bump
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ-A

Killer Bunny
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
United Kingdom
08/19/2020 12:26 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Spain numbers are worrying, but not as much as the number of clusters they have : over 1,000.


We are entering the last 2 weeks of August, and I predicted, according to my model, that the resurgence will start in Europe at the end of July, and be established by the end of August, while September and forward are going to be bonkers.


We are 14 days away from September 1st.


Europe is going to really explode in the next 14 days...but that won't stop the governments to open up schools, as I was expecting since about 2 months now, when I realized that the next lock-down won't be possible unless everyone is going to accept them, as a last resort.


And the last resort will come because the pandemic will be intentionally let loose, with schools as the key vector.


If the schools will stay open by mid-October (which I expect to be the case), second round of lock-downs are basically certain.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I have to give you for kudos again. I remember you predicting there would be a backlog of cases dumped in Texas, and low and behold...60k cases dumped in Texas today.

You still see USA being on track for explosion in the next 30 days, due to schools reopening, etc? October lockdown?

Thanks again DR. Stay safe/healthy.
 Quoting: CLYMER



Apparently, it's 600k unreported tests in Texas.

I am expecting around 10% of those to be positive, so Texas will have a correction of about 60k cases.


School reopening is one thing. How long they will stay open is another.

My personal belief is that the governments will do everything to keep the schools open for at least 4 weeks.


But local authorities might choose to close schools after just a single week, if they find cases, and this will lower the incidence on new cases in the communities.


It is possible to see lock-downs in October, but for the U.S., a nation-wide lock-down is not on the cards before elections, no matter what.


Same for Europe. October is the month when a decision have to be made : lock-down or not. But I fear that an European lock-down will also be avoided in October, but pretty much unavoidable in November.


What I have gathered until now, it's pretty damn grim, but as I said, my next update is at the end of August.


Lots of unexpected events can modify what seems certain (for my model) at this point.


Still not positive enough to make a prediction for October and after.

Need more time for quantifying how the school reopening will go in both U.S. and Europe, in cases and authorities reactions, before I will be sure enough to have a solid prediction for the winter.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/19/2020 12:26 PM
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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08/19/2020 12:34 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Spain numbers are worrying, but not as much as the number of clusters they have : over 1,000.


We are entering the last 2 weeks of August, and I predicted, according to my model, that the resurgence will start in Europe at the end of July, and be established by the end of August, while September and forward are going to be bonkers.


We are 14 days away from September 1st.


Europe is going to really explode in the next 14 days...but that won't stop the governments to open up schools, as I was expecting since about 2 months now, when I realized that the next lock-down won't be possible unless everyone is going to accept them, as a last resort.


And the last resort will come because the pandemic will be intentionally let loose, with schools as the key vector.


If the schools will stay open by mid-October (which I expect to be the case), second round of lock-downs are basically certain.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I have to give you for kudos again. I remember you predicting there would be a backlog of cases dumped in Texas, and low and behold...60k cases dumped in Texas today.

You still see USA being on track for explosion in the next 30 days, due to schools reopening, etc? October lockdown?

Thanks again DR. Stay safe/healthy.
 Quoting: CLYMER



Apparently, it's 600k unreported tests in Texas.

I am expecting around 10% of those to be positive, so Texas will have a correction of about 60k cases.


School reopening is one thing. How long they will stay open is another.

My personal belief is that the governments will do everything to keep the schools open for at least 4 weeks.


But local authorities might choose to close schools after just a single week, if they find cases, and this will lower the incidence on new cases in the communities.


It is possible to see lock-downs in October, but for the U.S., a nation-wide lock-down is not on the cards before elections, no matter what.


Same for Europe. October is the month when a decision have to be made : lock-down or not. But I fear that an European lock-down will also be avoided in October, but pretty much unavoidable in November.


What I have gathered until now, it's pretty damn grim, but as I said, my next update is at the end of August.


Lots of unexpected events can modify what seems certain (for my model) at this point.


Still not positive enough to make a prediction for October and after.

Need more time for quantifying how the school reopening will go in both U.S. and Europe, in cases and authorities reactions, before I will be sure enough to have a solid prediction for the winter.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


As a Texan, I will give a personal analysis -- a large majority of the people here care only about football. They are obsessed to the point it clouds their rational judgement.

They would rather see kids in school, risking WuFlu, than miss their damned football.

I would suggest that a strong possibility for the under reporting.

That said, what shitty parents to risk this virus on the kids just so they can run around with a ball, or cheer lead. Poor kids, children of peaked in high school parents, who still want to pretend they are in high school.

I expect most schools will be fully virtual by the end of September.

Last Edited by LJS on 08/19/2020 12:35 PM
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ-A

Killer Bunny
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
United Kingdom
08/19/2020 12:38 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, I have been following you since you first started your informational journey on this topic.
I have been commenting and thanking you anonymously, once again I thank you for your work.
Your information, analysis and conclusions are very handy to use when trying to make my own decisions and plans.
Thank you once again.
 Quoting: Saskafrass



You are welcomed.


Stay close, and follow this thread updates when they come.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
United Kingdom
08/19/2020 12:59 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Spain numbers are worrying, but not as much as the number of clusters they have : over 1,000.


We are entering the last 2 weeks of August, and I predicted, according to my model, that the resurgence will start in Europe at the end of July, and be established by the end of August, while September and forward are going to be bonkers.


We are 14 days away from September 1st.


Europe is going to really explode in the next 14 days...but that won't stop the governments to open up schools, as I was expecting since about 2 months now, when I realized that the next lock-down won't be possible unless everyone is going to accept them, as a last resort.


And the last resort will come because the pandemic will be intentionally let loose, with schools as the key vector.


If the schools will stay open by mid-October (which I expect to be the case), second round of lock-downs are basically certain.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I have to give you for kudos again. I remember you predicting there would be a backlog of cases dumped in Texas, and low and behold...60k cases dumped in Texas today.

You still see USA being on track for explosion in the next 30 days, due to schools reopening, etc? October lockdown?

Thanks again DR. Stay safe/healthy.
 Quoting: CLYMER



Apparently, it's 600k unreported tests in Texas.

I am expecting around 10% of those to be positive, so Texas will have a correction of about 60k cases.


School reopening is one thing. How long they will stay open is another.

My personal belief is that the governments will do everything to keep the schools open for at least 4 weeks.


But local authorities might choose to close schools after just a single week, if they find cases, and this will lower the incidence on new cases in the communities.


It is possible to see lock-downs in October, but for the U.S., a nation-wide lock-down is not on the cards before elections, no matter what.


Same for Europe. October is the month when a decision have to be made : lock-down or not. But I fear that an European lock-down will also be avoided in October, but pretty much unavoidable in November.


What I have gathered until now, it's pretty damn grim, but as I said, my next update is at the end of August.


Lots of unexpected events can modify what seems certain (for my model) at this point.


Still not positive enough to make a prediction for October and after.

Need more time for quantifying how the school reopening will go in both U.S. and Europe, in cases and authorities reactions, before I will be sure enough to have a solid prediction for the winter.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


As a Texan, I will give a personal analysis -- a large majority of the people here care only about football. They are obsessed to the point it clouds their rational judgement.

They would rather see kids in school, risking WuFlu, than miss their damned football.

I would suggest that a strong possibility for the under reporting.

That said, what shitty parents to risk this virus on the kids just so they can run around with a ball, or cheer lead. Poor kids, children of peaked in high school parents, who still want to pretend they are in high school.

I expect most schools will be fully virtual by the end of September.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith



It is possible, but I am quite pessimistic about it.

I do hope that this will happen, but looking at how things develop to date (granted, they might change in the next weeks), the governments, everywhere, are decided in avoiding closing in-person schooling.

Student campuses are prepping a number of dorms to be for quarantine, which means they plan to have the campuses open, and only quarantine positive cases and their contacts.

Schools that are now open, are choosing to quarantine cases and their contacts at home...yet the schools remain open.

Europe is preparing to do the same : quarantine entire classes, but schools to remain open, unless most classes have cases.


The big unknown is parents reaction. For now, over 80% of them wants their kids to go to school. It will change drastically, but by that time, it will be too late : the virus will gain a strong foothold in the communities...and that just before cold season starts.


I believe that the only chance to avoid a massive second wave is either schools to be closed ASAP, or most parents to choose not to send their kids to school.


For the moment, neither of the above is realistically probable.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
United Kingdom
08/19/2020 01:04 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
It seems europe is exploding with cases. All of Europe except italy
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79281389


Just wait a couple of weeks... I was looking at the worldometers graphs and it looks like we are 2 or 3 weeks behind Spain: the 7 day average graph is going to look exactly like the spanish one.
And I think it is coherent with DR's prediction.


UPDATES FROM ITALY
+ 642 positive cases
+ 7 deaths
+ 8 ICU

[link to images.app.goo.gl (secure)]
 Quoting: Leonero



When Spain started to go up again, and Italy didn't, my opinion was that Italy was able to contain their clusters, and Spain did not.


I have also stated that Italy's ability (or luck) to contain new clusters will weaken in August, because the number of clusters will rise well above Italy's capability to detect all of them.


It seems that this is happening now, Italy is finding more and more cases, and not because more testing (Italy is testing much less then June), but because undetected clusters.


Italy will lose control of the clusters by the end of this month.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/19/2020 01:04 PM
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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08/19/2020 01:06 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
...


I have to give you for kudos again. I remember you predicting there would be a backlog of cases dumped in Texas, and low and behold...60k cases dumped in Texas today.

You still see USA being on track for explosion in the next 30 days, due to schools reopening, etc? October lockdown?

Thanks again DR. Stay safe/healthy.
 Quoting: CLYMER



Apparently, it's 600k unreported tests in Texas.

I am expecting around 10% of those to be positive, so Texas will have a correction of about 60k cases.


School reopening is one thing. How long they will stay open is another.

My personal belief is that the governments will do everything to keep the schools open for at least 4 weeks.


But local authorities might choose to close schools after just a single week, if they find cases, and this will lower the incidence on new cases in the communities.


It is possible to see lock-downs in October, but for the U.S., a nation-wide lock-down is not on the cards before elections, no matter what.


Same for Europe. October is the month when a decision have to be made : lock-down or not. But I fear that an European lock-down will also be avoided in October, but pretty much unavoidable in November.


What I have gathered until now, it's pretty damn grim, but as I said, my next update is at the end of August.


Lots of unexpected events can modify what seems certain (for my model) at this point.


Still not positive enough to make a prediction for October and after.

Need more time for quantifying how the school reopening will go in both U.S. and Europe, in cases and authorities reactions, before I will be sure enough to have a solid prediction for the winter.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


As a Texan, I will give a personal analysis -- a large majority of the people here care only about football. They are obsessed to the point it clouds their rational judgement.

They would rather see kids in school, risking WuFlu, than miss their damned football.

I would suggest that a strong possibility for the under reporting.

That said, what shitty parents to risk this virus on the kids just so they can run around with a ball, or cheer lead. Poor kids, children of peaked in high school parents, who still want to pretend they are in high school.

I expect most schools will be fully virtual by the end of September.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith



It is possible, but I am quite pessimistic about it.

I do hope that this will happen, but looking at how things develop to date (granted, they might change in the next weeks), the governments, everywhere, are decided in avoiding closing in-person schooling.

Student campuses are prepping a number of dorms to be for quarantine, which means they plan to have the campuses open, and only quarantine positive cases and their contacts.

Schools that are now open, are choosing to quarantine cases and their contacts at home...yet the schools remain open.

Europe is preparing to do the same : quarantine entire classes, but schools to remain open, unless most classes have cases.


The big unknown is parents reaction. For now, over 80% of them wants their kids to go to school. It will change drastically, but by that time, it will be too late : the virus will gain a strong foothold in the communities...and that just before cold season starts.


I believe that the only chance to avoid a massive second wave is either schools to be closed ASAP, or most parents to choose not to send their kids to school.


For the moment, neither of the above is realistically probable.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


My kids are doing virtual, but I have told them to be prepared for a lot of friends, whose insisted they go back in person, to get sick. Some likely severely ill, and some could pass.
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

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NawtyBits

User ID: 79043579
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08/19/2020 01:38 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
My kids are doing virtual, but I have told them to be prepared for a lot of friends, whose insisted they go back in person, to get sick. Some likely severely ill, and some could pass.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


The fact that you have to have this conversation with your kids is absolutely horrifying.


Edited to de-politicize. Sorry.

Last Edited by NawtyBits on 08/19/2020 03:07 PM
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deplorable recollector  (OP)

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08/19/2020 02:12 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
3,776 new cases in France, in the last 24 hrs.


Looks like France wants to beat Spain.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/19/2020 02:12 PM
Leonero

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08/19/2020 02:36 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
It seems europe is exploding with cases. All of Europe except italy
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79281389


Just wait a couple of weeks... I was looking at the worldometers graphs and it looks like we are 2 or 3 weeks behind Spain: the 7 day average graph is going to look exactly like the spanish one.
And I think it is coherent with DR's prediction.


UPDATES FROM ITALY
+ 642 positive cases
+ 7 deaths
+ 8 ICU

[link to images.app.goo.gl (secure)]
 Quoting: Leonero



When Spain started to go up again, and Italy didn't, my opinion was that Italy was able to contain their clusters, and Spain did not.


I have also stated that Italy's ability (or luck) to contain new clusters will weaken in August, because the number of clusters will rise well above Italy's capability to detect all of them.


It seems that this is happening now, Italy is finding more and more cases, and not because more testing (Italy is testing much less then June), but because undetected clusters.


Italy will lose control of the clusters by the end of this month.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



Thank you for your reply DR. (and for your small update in response to my info. I mean that your replies always give us new perspectives and predictions)
We now have 925 detected active clusters in Italy, according to media.

[link to tg24.sky.it (secure)]


PS thank you again for the amazing job you are doing with your thread.

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/19/2020 02:36 PM
Ad Omnia Paratus
Anonymous Coward
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Lithuania
08/19/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
(@C_Barraud)

#FRANCE REPORTS 3,776 NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS



(@macroguru9)

France’s 7 Day Moving Avg Of New Cases Above 2500 Threshold For First Time Since April 18



siren2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78247409





GLP