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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China

 
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08/26/2020 05:12 PM

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Guythu

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08/26/2020 06:18 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
France, another 4,897 new cases...on a Sunday. Last Sunday, they had 3,065 new cases. That is an increase of 60%.

Italy, an increase of 150% compared to last Sunday.

Numbers are deceiving, especially since it compares 2 Sunday, just a week away from each other.

But if we do it with more weeks back, it's going to point out to a clear trend.



Looks like everything is going to happen as expected and predicted : Europe will have the second wave established by end of August, and September will see massive (about twice as much compared to March) increase in cases, followed by hospitalizations and ICU usage by the end of September, thanks to our dear leaders being set on opening the schools.


October is going to be decision time : full lock-down, for 4+ months, or we are going to be decimated before January.


Decimated as in 10% of the population dead (about 3-4%) + hospitalized (about 5-6%) + disabled for months ( about 1-2%), due to long term effects.


We will be very close to societal collapse...either way.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR-
Is there a point when locking down cannot stop it?
 Quoting: Guythu



Lock-downs will always stop it.


However, there is a theoretical point where lock-down effects will be limited, and it will take many months of lock-down before those effects will be significant enough to stop the spread of the virus.


I believe that that point is going to be (depending on the country) 6 to 8 weeks of schools being open.


Any country that is going to have their schools open for 8 straight weeks, will suffer greatly, and a lock-down will have to last 4-5 months, before the pandemic will be brought under control.


But 4-5 months of lock-down is economic suicide. No one will do it.



So, what we are facing now is pretty simple, I believe : if schools will stay open in September and October, the number of sick people (sick, as in needing hospitalization) is going to be massive.



I really don't see a way out, if schools will be open all the way through October. Lock-down or not, after, won't matter.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thanks DR.
Leonero

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08/27/2020 02:37 AM
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EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF PANDEMIC IN ITALY

[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]

A new total lockdown seems to be ruled out at the moment and, without a complete and rigid closure like the one taken on March 9th, there are three scenarios that Italy could face next autumn. To trace them, in an interview with ANSA, is Ranieri Guerra, deputy director of the World Health Organization (WHO) and member of the Technical-Scientific Committee. "A global lockdown is out of the question," he notes; "it is not foreseen because it would cause harm without giving benefits".
[...]
The first is the most optimistic, with a "very slow and constant increase in cases, not necessarily linked to an increase in patients".

[...]
The second scenario, more complex and perhaps the most plausible, foresees that with the autumn and the reopening of schools and the greater use of public transport, a sort of "short circuit between schools and families" can be created which could lead to " a further increase in cases, hopefully contained "

[...]
The third scenario is definitely the worst: it is the one in which the situation could get out of hand, with "an increase in cases such that in the territory it would no longer be possible to make adequate diagnosis and tracking" also due to "an increase in hospitalizations.

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/27/2020 02:39 AM
The Gathering Storm

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08/27/2020 06:14 AM
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EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF PANDEMIC IN ITALY

[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]

A new total lockdown seems to be ruled out at the moment and, without a complete and rigid closure like the one taken on March 9th, there are three scenarios that Italy could face next autumn. To trace them, in an interview with ANSA, is Ranieri Guerra, deputy director of the World Health Organization (WHO) and member of the Technical-Scientific Committee. "A global lockdown is out of the question," he notes; "it is not foreseen because it would cause harm without giving benefits".
[...]
The first is the most optimistic, with a "very slow and constant increase in cases, not necessarily linked to an increase in patients".

[...]
The second scenario, more complex and perhaps the most plausible, foresees that with the autumn and the reopening of schools and the greater use of public transport, a sort of "short circuit between schools and families" can be created which could lead to " a further increase in cases, hopefully contained "

[...]
The third scenario is definitely the worst: it is the one in which the situation could get out of hand, with "an increase in cases such that in the territory it would no longer be possible to make adequate diagnosis and tracking" also due to "an increase in hospitalizations.
 Quoting: Leonero


The third one is the most likely for every country eventually.
Anonymous Coward
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08/27/2020 06:23 AM
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These were the highlights of my last update on July 15th :


-expecting the pandemic to grow significantly in the U.S. between mid July to beginning of August (last 2 weeks of July and first week of August), compared to the previous 3 weeks.




-expecting the second wave to start in Europe between mid to end of July.

-expecting 16 epicenters to be formed in Europe by the end of August.



...

 Quoting: deplorable recollector

You were correct. Norway has declared Belgium as a red zone.
In Belgium, the Antwerp region is one huge hotspot and has been for several weeks now.

The second wave started in Belgium around mid-July, probably a few days earlier.

And this all the warnings and regulations notwithstanding.
Anonymous Coward
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08/27/2020 06:34 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Same for Europe.


Now, masks DO NOT STOP the pandemic, and have only a limited effect on slowing it down. The best example is Japan. Those guys wear masks all the time, and helped them in the Spring, but now, Japan is seeing a serious surge in cases, despite mask wearing.


Masks do one thing, and it is a pretty damn important one : decrease the level of viral loads in case of exposure.
...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

You have to ask yourself where those sudden surges in Japan are coming from. Those are a rather strange phenomenon, precisely because the japanese are and were a very disciplied nation who carefully avoided the pandemic as well as they could. One possibility is pockets of groups of people intentionally spreading it.
Leonero

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Italy
08/27/2020 11:53 AM
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UPDATES FROM ITALY


+ 1411 new positive cases

+ 5 deaths

- 2 ICU (updated total is: 67 patients in ICU)

+ 76 patients hospitalized with symptoms not treatable at home (updated total is: 1131 patients currently hospitalized)

+ 225 "recovered"

Sources:
[link to www.quotidiano.net (secure)]

[link to www.repubblica.it (secure)]

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/27/2020 11:55 AM
Anonymous Coward
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08/27/2020 12:36 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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08/27/2020 12:48 PM
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Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


This will be the running theme for all countries. Let the band aid rip all at once. Full Sweden.
Anonymous Coward
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08/27/2020 04:37 PM
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Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


This will be the running theme for all countries. Let the band aid rip all at once. Full Sweden.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78576165


But that is a misunderstanding, that Sweden has carried on as if life is normal. The majority of Swedish live in single households, they have better healthcare than the US, they have restricted some commerce and people have voluntarily locked themselves down.
Leonero

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Italy
08/27/2020 09:51 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
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08/27/2020 10:40 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
 Quoting: Leonero


This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
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Leonero

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Italy
08/28/2020 06:18 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
 Quoting: Leonero


This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe



Of course it will backfire.
I still don't understand if
Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic...
Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest.
Anonymous Coward
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08/28/2020 06:36 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
 Quoting: Leonero


This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe



Of course it will backfire.
I still don't understand if
Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic...
Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest.
 Quoting: Leonero


I think its a under bias of hope thats pushing. The desire to go back to normal..

And in the back of the mind they know they have to shut down.

To remove all hope would cause the economy to free fall.

HOPE is what keeps economys going. All economys are built on HOPE.
They HOPE to make a profit HOPE they can expand HOPE they can get bigger.

Its the fundamental of the economy and humans.

Remove all HOPE and soical fabric implodes.
Anonymous Coward
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08/28/2020 08:40 AM
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...


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
 Quoting: Leonero


This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe



Of course it will backfire.
I still don't understand if
Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic...
Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest.
 Quoting: Leonero


I think its a under bias of hope thats pushing. The desire to go back to normal..

And in the back of the mind they know they have to shut down.

To remove all hope would cause the economy to free fall.

HOPE is what keeps economys going. All economys are built on HOPE.
They HOPE to make a profit HOPE they can expand HOPE they can get bigger.

Its the fundamental of the economy and humans.

Remove all HOPE and soical fabric implodes.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70318537


Fun fact: the name of Italian heath minister is Speranza, translated into English means "hope"
Leonero

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Italy
08/28/2020 11:53 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
UPDATES FROM ITALY


+ 1462 new positive cases:

+ 9 deaths

+ 7 ICU (updated total is: 74 patients currently in ICU)

+ 47 patients hospitalized with symptoms. (updated total is: 1178 patients currently hospitalized)

+ 348 recovered

Source:
[link to www.repubblica.it (secure)]


Interesting (and worrying) to see that hospitalizations and ICU are slowly growing day by day...
Anonymous Coward
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08/28/2020 04:27 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Spain has reported 7400 cases today. Health ministry has mentioned "exponential growth".
Leonero

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Italy
08/28/2020 05:52 PM
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Spain has reported 7400 cases today. Health ministry has mentioned "exponential growth".
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70314244


Info is correct but it is referred to France, not Spain.

I also want to add a piece of info about it.
Macron stated: "I do not totally rule out a new lockdown, but we will do everything to prevent it."

[link to www.tgcom24.mediaset.it (secure)]
ParamedicUK

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08/28/2020 07:41 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
DR thanks for your regular updates and feedback.

What are your thoughts on T-cell immunity which is being discussed as a possible saviour for this Pandemic?

Some sources are suggesting the 50% of the population may be immune to or able to fend off COVID-19 easily as the sequencing of the virus is so similar to other human coronaviruses to which we already have strong T-cell immunity.

For example...
[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

This may mean we are much closer to herd immunity levels?

Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 08/28/2020 07:41 PM
Anonymous Coward
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08/28/2020 08:34 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
here in italy the geographical distribution of the cases has never changed

the greatest part in northern italy, very few in the south. some more case in the south lately, probably because of the tourists

i think this virus is largely influenced by environmental factors: mainly the wind and the horography. northern italy is a plain with no wind, southern italy is very mountainous with a lot of wind. southern italy is very similar to greece, country with few cases too.

it would be interesting to see if the same factors influence the epidemic also in other countries
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79245902


In Po valley there's also a lot of smog
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79245793


"Coronavirus, international study alert: more infections in polluted areas" from Repubblica, today

[link to translate.google.it (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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08/29/2020 07:48 AM
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[link to edition.cnn.com (secure)]

(CDC's chief of staff, deputy chief of staff depart from agency
, August 15, 2020 )


Thoughts?

as i remember one image from a 4chan forums , there was something like 'Ask Kyle about this' (?)

[link to i.imgur.com (secure)]
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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08/29/2020 09:28 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
DR thanks for your regular updates and feedback.

What are your thoughts on T-cell immunity which is being discussed as a possible saviour for this Pandemic?

Some sources are suggesting the 50% of the population may be immune to or able to fend off COVID-19 easily as the sequencing of the virus is so similar to other human coronaviruses to which we already have strong T-cell immunity.

For example...
[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

This may mean we are much closer to herd immunity levels?
 Quoting: ParamedicUK



I have already stated my opinion on this.


We will see, after mid-October, if this is the case or not. I personally expect that it won't, and T-cell hopeburgering will fail, like the other previously 20+ miracles that were supposed to save us from the virus.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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08/29/2020 09:34 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
ParamedicUK

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08/29/2020 10:53 AM

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Coronavirus: Winter plans revealed in leaked Sage report

[link to www.bbc.co.uk (secure)]

The model attempts to calculate excess deaths in England and Wales between July 2020 to March 2021. These are deaths over and above what would normally be expected during that period and are based on ONS data.

The model has been adjusted to account for people who would have been expected to die because they have other illnesses.
It said in England and Wales there could be 81,000 excess deaths due to Covid, plus 27,000 excess deaths from non-Covid causes.
In Scotland there could be 2,600 direct Covid deaths, and 1,900 in Northern Ireland.

In addition to excess deaths, the model also suggests how many people may need hospital treatment between November and March, including intensive care.

The figures, which the scientists say have a wide range of uncertainty, suggest around 2.4% of infected people could be hospitalised (range: 0.0%-8.9%) with 20.5% of hospitalised patients going into ICU (range: 1.5% - 35.25) and 23.3% (range: 1.2% - 43.3%) of all hospitalised patients dying.

The model also predicts an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.7% (0.0% - 9.7%).
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
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08/29/2020 10:59 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I would like to have something to say to counter that argument, but I don’t.

It applies to human response to many kind of threats, not only the pandemic, normalcy is valued above everything else. As an example, I live in an area where highly destructive EQs and Tsunamis happen at an average of 150 years, and no one ever takes this in account when planning land usage, urban development or anything. It’s simply a too vague threat to take in account, not here and now.’
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
The Gathering Storm

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08/29/2020 07:33 PM
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The Gathering Storm

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08/29/2020 07:36 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Yep, we are fucked.
Anonymous Coward
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08/29/2020 08:35 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Yep, we are fucked.
 Quoting: The Gathering Storm


DR, this is a bold and almost hopeless prediction/assumption. Do you see this as an worldwide or more sectional?

There is seemingly a force that's driving the Hoaxtards to assemble and spread this belief all around the world. It's frustrating.

It's hard to accept that our society is so fragile that we are conducting our own demise. Doesn't help that the supposed health agencies can't get their shit straight adding to the confusion and conspiracy junk thoughts.
Anonymous Coward
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08/29/2020 08:52 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



But could it not be now tjat they are testing a lot lot more people they are picking up rhe asytomatic people.
This removes them from the chain and reduces that silent load that caused the issues with people getting more ill.

These people in the first wave never got picked up or found and caused massive viral load.

This could have a huge impact on reducing hospitals
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
08/29/2020 10:07 PM
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"Smart working can work at special times and occasions, but it can't become either the general rule or the future, unless you want to massacre trade and services, deserting neighborhoods and cities at the risk of even diminishing security."

This is the statement of the leader of Italy's main political party.

Smart working reduces the spread of the virus and pollution.
But if people don't move from home, causing the crisis of transport, fuel station, restaurants, bars, office and housing owners.
If this pandemic creates a serious economic crisis and the rebirth of a society based on a more sustainable model, I will be glad.
(sorry for my bad English)





GLP