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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China

 
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
09/06/2020 02:33 PM
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Dr i think 7k cases/day is already enough serious. Don't you?
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
09/06/2020 02:44 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
How many daily cases did the UK have when the lockdown was brought in back in March?
Serenity Now

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09/06/2020 04:05 PM

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Thanks for the updates, DR. How is Romania doing?

Stay safe and healthy, everyone. :)
Waiting for the inflection point of no return....
Anonymous Coward
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Czech Republic
09/06/2020 05:07 PM
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Love the effort put into this thread! Thanks for updating!

A few days ago here in Czech we had three straight days of records being broken. Quite dramatic increases. The graph has been remade three times over the last weeks to accommodate this increase.
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

What is bothering me as others have pointed out. Is the sheer ignorance of the general public! Relying on msm for facts, which is very naive to say the least.

I can’t help but think back again to the Spanish flu, where it’s now commonly known the reason it got named after Spain, is because they told the truth about the death toll. As opposed to UK and US who lied to keep public morale and maintain a strong appearance to their enemies in war.

Same ignorance today, same patterns of first and second wave in timing, reluctance to wear masks, and media lies.

So each country I believe is molding a BS story for their people, just to lower people’s guard and get them out catching this thing as much as possible. I’d say this was all part of the scripted tactic devised long ago. Still shocking to believe China has had what is it? Like 4000 odd dead. They would be on the extreme end of lying, but great deception is at hand here.
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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09/06/2020 10:02 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
bump
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

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Leonero

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Italy
09/07/2020 03:56 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
negazionists and no mask movements organized a rally against the government, which they consider a "healthcare dictatorship", on 5th September, in Rome.

[link to www.today.it (secure)]
 Quoting: Leonero


1500 clowns
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79346724



Moreover, considering no masks & no social distancing... 1500 possible new "hosts" for Covid-19 virus.
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
09/07/2020 04:22 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
negazionists and no mask movements organized a rally against the government, which they consider a "healthcare dictatorship", on 5th September, in Rome.

[link to www.today.it (secure)]
 Quoting: Leonero


1500 clowns
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79346724



Moreover, considering no masks & no social distancing... 1500 possible new "hosts" for Covid-19 virus.
 Quoting: Leonero


hesright


"The intelligent man solves the problems, the wise man avoids them, the stupid man creates them."

(A. Einstein)
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
09/07/2020 05:59 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks for the updates, DR. How is Romania doing?

Stay safe and healthy, everyone. :)
 Quoting: Serenity Now



Romania is like everyone else. Most people think it's a hoax or a flu.

We barely test anyone, around 24k / day, with 10k of them are voluntary, from people who went in holidays abroad, and needed a test. Almost all of them were negative, as expected, and this skews the results of testing.


We're opening the schools on 14th, so, yeah...
Anonymous Coward
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Denmark
09/07/2020 08:21 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks for the Update, have been following your posts and they have been spot on.
I also expect the government bodies to be hesitant to lock down or close schools. I northern Germany schools have been open for some weeks, but we have started from a very low baseline of infections. This will change. Schools in southern Germany are opening up this week, but with many more infections in the background.

When you say crisis in November, can you specifiy? Do you personally expect a Mad-Max-like situation? What are you doing/recommend to prepare?
Thanks!
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
09/07/2020 08:29 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I've just heard on TV that in France the ratio cases/tests is around the 5%

If this is true it means that the American virus has arrived in Europe

The American virus has a ratio around 10%, the European one around 1-1.5%
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
09/07/2020 04:08 PM
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"It was not Kawasaki but an inflammatory disease caused by Covid.

A study by the Bambino Gesù pediatric hospital in Rome sheds light on a systemic inflammatory disease (called "Mis-C"), caused by coronavirus and initially confused with Kawasaki disease ..."

[link to translate.google.it (secure)]
CLYMER

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United States
09/07/2020 10:09 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Hey DR,

I know you have given your opinion about supposed vaccine before on this thread. I tend to agree with you.

Trump, however, talking about vaccine being distributed next month. What do you make of all of this? Why would he say that? Do you think this vaccine will help the October sh**show we are heading towards?
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
09/07/2020 11:58 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Hey DR,

I know you have given your opinion about supposed vaccine before on this thread. I tend to agree with you.

Trump, however, talking about vaccine being distributed next month. What do you make of all of this? Why would he say that? Do you think this vaccine will help the October sh**show we are heading towards?
 Quoting: CLYMER


Great questions!

I’m wondering the same thing!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79350711
Italy
09/08/2020 12:15 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Hey DR,

I know you have given your opinion about supposed vaccine before on this thread. I tend to agree with you.

Trump, however, talking about vaccine being distributed next month. What do you make of all of this? Why would he say that? Do you think this vaccine will help the October sh**show we are heading towards?
 Quoting: CLYMER


Or will help his re-election? chuckle
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79318725
United Kingdom
09/08/2020 07:16 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Hey DR,

I know you have given your opinion about supposed vaccine before on this thread. I tend to agree with you.

Trump, however, talking about vaccine being distributed next month. What do you make of all of this? Why would he say that? Do you think this vaccine will help the October sh**show we are heading towards?
 Quoting: CLYMER


Or will help his re-election? chuckle
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79350711


And the Australian government saying they have ordered 50 million of this vaccine, and will make another 80 million of another one , sounds really sketchy to me , and I haven't herd ( pun intended) one person ask if it's going to be an annual vaccine like the flu shot , the making it out like we will only need to take it once , all they've said is that you will need two doses to be covered , sounds like total shit to me when the virus mutates all the time , but .... I'm no expert so please correct me if I'm wrong.
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
09/08/2020 09:30 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
France has lowered quarantine period from 14 days to 7 days

After 7 days the virus will not be infectious anymore
Leonero

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Italy
09/08/2020 12:54 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
France has lowered quarantine period from 14 days to 7 days

After 7 days the virus will not be infectious anymore
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79354511


Lockdown: ruled out
Quarantine time: reduced to 7 days
Schools: still opened

Is France going to look after a complete disaster?

I may sound sarcastic but... I really don't understand some politics choices...

There is no evidence that people affected by Covid-19 are not infectious after 7 days...

Even some italian virologists started to call "asymptomatic" as "pre-symptomatic" because no one still knows exactly how this virus behave in people with no visible symptoms and how it replicates in younger and "stronger" hosts.

Last Edited by Leonero on 09/08/2020 12:56 PM
Anonymous Coward
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India
09/08/2020 01:03 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
You’d be forgiven for thinking they want us to beg for lockdown at this point
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
09/08/2020 03:04 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Hey DR,

I know you have given your opinion about supposed vaccine before on this thread. I tend to agree with you.

Trump, however, talking about vaccine being distributed next month. What do you make of all of this? Why would he say that? Do you think this vaccine will help the October sh**show we are heading towards?
 Quoting: CLYMER


All I can say is this :

[link to www.jnj.com (secure)]


Among the 9, are Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, AstraZenca and Sanofi.


Earliest a vaccine will be approved is Spring 2021, if all goes perfectly, with mass production and distribution starting in Summer of 2021.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
09/08/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
You’d be forgiven for thinking they want us to beg for lockdown at this point
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79345627


At this point, no.


But after mid-October, well...
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
09/08/2020 03:24 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks for the Update, have been following your posts and they have been spot on.
I also expect the government bodies to be hesitant to lock down or close schools. I northern Germany schools have been open for some weeks, but we have started from a very low baseline of infections. This will change. Schools in southern Germany are opening up this week, but with many more infections in the background.

When you say crisis in November, can you specifiy? Do you personally expect a Mad-Max-like situation? What are you doing/recommend to prepare?
Thanks!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43245883



I am an extremely patient man. Things are unfolding (for now) as I was expecting them to unfold.


The crisis will be the outcome of what will be decided in October : second round of lock-downs or not. Highly likely no second lock-down in October, unless the pandemic is worse then I expect it to be.


Most people don't understand the economic side of a medical crisis. It can well surpass, in expenses, the losses from a lock-down, and that is not even counting the humanitarian crisis from a "constipated" or overwhelmed healthcare system.

People that go to hospital, insurance or not, have the same expenses. Someone (meaning us, the people) is paying for those expenses : medication, energy, cleaning, disinfection, healthcare staff wages, etc.

If we will have too many patients, those expenses will skyrocket, and to be able to support those expenses, taxes will have to be risen, or other expenses to be moved from other sectors, to healthcare. And this means job losses, because nobody will cut their profits or wages.

In a 3 times higher 2nd wave conditions, such expenses can reach 10% of the GDP of a country. If it's a bigger 2nd wave...well, lock-downs become cheaper.



The crisis will be both medical and economical, doesn't matter if second lock-down comes or not, and the job losses will be similar in any scenario.


A mad-max scenario is on the cards, and atm is pretty mush on top 3 of the outcomes of the second wave.

By mid-October, it will be clear if a mad-max scenario is still possible.
Oscanator

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United States
09/08/2020 03:40 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks for the Update, have been following your posts and they have been spot on.
I also expect the government bodies to be hesitant to lock down or close schools. I northern Germany schools have been open for some weeks, but we have started from a very low baseline of infections. This will change. Schools in southern Germany are opening up this week, but with many more infections in the background.

When you say crisis in November, can you specifiy? Do you personally expect a Mad-Max-like situation? What are you doing/recommend to prepare?
Thanks!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43245883



I am an extremely patient man. Things are unfolding (for now) as I was expecting them to unfold.


The crisis will be the outcome of what will be decided in October : second round of lock-downs or not. Highly likely no second lock-down in October, unless the pandemic is worse then I expect it to be.


Most people don't understand the economic side of a medical crisis. It can well surpass, in expenses, the losses from a lock-down, and that is not even counting the humanitarian crisis from a "constipated" or overwhelmed healthcare system.

People that go to hospital, insurance or not, have the same expenses. Someone (meaning us, the people) is paying for those expenses : medication, energy, cleaning, disinfection, healthcare staff wages, etc.

If we will have too many patients, those expenses will skyrocket, and to be able to support those expenses, taxes will have to be risen, or other expenses to be moved from other sectors, to healthcare. And this means job losses, because nobody will cut their profits or wages.

In a 3 times higher 2nd wave conditions, such expenses can reach 10% of the GDP of a country. If it's a bigger 2nd wave...well, lock-downs become cheaper.



The crisis will be both medical and economical, doesn't matter if second lock-down comes or not, and the job losses will be similar in any scenario.


A mad-max scenario is on the cards, and atm is pretty mush on top 3 of the outcomes of the second wave.

By mid-October, it will be clear if a mad-max scenario is still possible.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


bump
Leonero

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Italy
09/08/2020 05:12 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
You’d be forgiven for thinking they want us to beg for lockdown at this point
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79345627


At this point, no.


But after mid-October, well...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


This is completely true and believable from our perspective.
(And you, DR, know how much I believe in your models and updates).
But not from government's point of view...

I try to explain my opinion:
Media and politics (in my country, Italy) now are spreading a different message: "You (a common citizen) must learn how to live with this virus".

This means, in other words, that the citizens must take in account all the risks about living a "normal" lifestyle...
You (must) go to work?
You (must) go to the supermarket?
You (must) get on public transport?

You (a simple, common citizen) take the risk...

"economic circle" can't be interrupted anymore.

Basically, you have no choice. You must act normally while taking in account the risk of being infected.

That's why I am pretty sure that most of EU countries will rule out a new lockdown...
Governments will try to let pandemic go on as long as they can and play "whack-a-mole" with the new clusters.

Some businessmen also started to say that if an employee is tested positive but is "asymptomatic" or "pre-symptomatic", still have to work on remote because a positive test isn't enough to stop someone from doing his job.
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
09/08/2020 05:21 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
France has lowered quarantine period from 14 days to 7 days

After 7 days the virus will not be infectious anymore
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79354511


Lockdown: ruled out
Quarantine time: reduced to 7 days
Schools: still opened

Is France going to look after a complete disaster?

I may sound sarcastic but... I really don't understand some politics choices...

There is no evidence that people affected by Covid-19 are not infectious after 7 days...

Even some italian virologists started to call "asymptomatic" as "pre-symptomatic" because no one still knows exactly how this virus behave in people with no visible symptoms and how it replicates in younger and "stronger" hosts.
 Quoting: Leonero


Italian Prime Minister, today:

"Some countries are reflecting on the duration of the quarantine. If quarantine time could be reduced from 14 days to 7 days, we could reduce social and economic costs."
UKguy
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India
09/08/2020 06:04 PM
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Social gatherings of more than six people to be banned in England to limit spread of coronavirus

[link to www.itv.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79354563
Italy
09/08/2020 06:57 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
This newspaper article from "Repubblica" may explain certain behaviors

[link to translate.google.it (secure)]
SWOOPSTER

User ID: 76699386
United States
09/08/2020 11:10 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks for the Update, have been following your posts and they have been spot on.
I also expect the government bodies to be hesitant to lock down or close schools. I northern Germany schools have been open for some weeks, but we have started from a very low baseline of infections. This will change. Schools in southern Germany are opening up this week, but with many more infections in the background.

When you say crisis in November, can you specifiy? Do you personally expect a Mad-Max-like situation? What are you doing/recommend to prepare?
Thanks!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43245883



I am an extremely patient man. Things are unfolding (for now) as I was expecting them to unfold.


The crisis will be the outcome of what will be decided in October : second round of lock-downs or not. Highly likely no second lock-down in October, unless the pandemic is worse then I expect it to be.


Most people don't understand the economic side of a medical crisis. It can well surpass, in expenses, the losses from a lock-down, and that is not even counting the humanitarian crisis from a "constipated" or overwhelmed healthcare system.

People that go to hospital, insurance or not, have the same expenses. Someone (meaning us, the people) is paying for those expenses : medication, energy, cleaning, disinfection, healthcare staff wages, etc.

If we will have too many patients, those expenses will skyrocket, and to be able to support those expenses, taxes will have to be risen, or other expenses to be moved from other sectors, to healthcare. And this means job losses, because nobody will cut their profits or wages.

In a 3 times higher 2nd wave conditions, such expenses can reach 10% of the GDP of a country. If it's a bigger 2nd wave...well, lock-downs become cheaper.



The crisis will be both medical and economical, doesn't matter if second lock-down comes or not, and the job losses will be similar in any scenario.


A mad-max scenario is on the cards, and atm is pretty mush on top 3 of the outcomes of the second wave.

By mid-October, it will be clear if a mad-max scenario is still possible.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


bump
~SWOOP~
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
09/09/2020 06:56 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
You’d be forgiven for thinking they want us to beg for lockdown at this point
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79345627


I actually think it's the opposite, it's joe public bitching about the lock downs I think the pollys are throwing there hands up , just saying fuck it , give these asholes what they want
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
09/09/2020 11:19 AM
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Italy
1434 cases
14 deaths

Dr i think there are enough data to outline a trend for Italy. 2 weeks above 1k cases.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79359951
Czech Republic
09/09/2020 01:57 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Czech recorded 1161 infection cases yesterday (10.5 million people here). New record. The graph was remade again (fourth time) to incorporate this.

So far at what I call the halfway point, I’ve checked today and the reading is yet again higher than I’ve seen before. So in theory, in the morning when I check for the final count of the day. It should be higher than yesterday’s record. If it isn’t, it won’t be far from it.

The rate seems to be running away now. Overnight after yesterday’s results, we now have to wear a mask in all indoor areas as far as I understand per the Mrs.

It could be a canary in the coal mine here. Keep your eyes peeled. Can’t think where this will go in a month from now. We have entered new territory entirely!





GLP