WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

^^^ THIS

Oh, I agree with that. I was just agreeing with DR's general premise that Europe is waiting to see what happens on November 3.

Me too. Hey, vego!

Clashes in these cities but protests just about anywhere.

[link to youmedia.fanpage.it (secure)]

Bulgaria positivity rate 29.3%

"Antagonists of the social centers, members of the extreme right, ultras as happened in Rome and organized crime laborers. And also many very young people. The protagonists of the clashes and violence have different faces and stories, but in the same way they have somehow infiltrated demonstrations and marches that had the aim of protesting and not devastating"

[link to translate.google.it (secure)]

also

About antibodies

The low level of antibodies in covid - recovered people means nothing

The body doesn't produce antibodies if there's no need for them

The body knows the virus and will produce the antibodies in the case of a reinfection.

This is an immune system fooler ..... science just hasn’t gotten there.

But in the mean time..... read this.

[link to news.ncsu.edu (secure)]

Since it is now October 27th, and the earliest lock-downs, at city level in Europe MIGHT start on Friday, 30th of October, it is clear that nation-wide lock-downs won't happen this month, as I expected.


Schools are still open, and I have said that any country that will have its schools open through October, will suffer extensively, and if the virus mutates after being exposed to younger hosts, it will be even worse.


I have also estimated that up to 25% of the population will be infected in this second wave, with up to 5% of them being infected in October, the rest up to 20% in the next 5 months (November 2020 - March 2021).


November is going to see about 7% of the population in Europe being infected by the virus, with slightly higher proportion in Western Europe, and slightly lower in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe, with large urban areas seeing the majority of the cases. The differences won't be big, and the pandemic in Europe will pretty much look the same in every country, through November, and especially towards the end of November.

The U.S. infections will start to ramp up this week, and by the end of November they will reach about 5% of the population being infected, most of them in the northern half of the U.S., concentrated in the large urban areas.


I won't bother breaking down the numbers to reflect the differences between rural areas / small towns and large urban areas.

This is not the point of this update.


The point of this update is to determine when the healthcare systems are going to be overwhelmed, in Europe and the U.S.


My estimates might be a bit higher then reality, and the rate of infection was not 5% in October, in Europe, but lower. But not much lower as to affect November.


I have previously said that Europe will completely lose control over the virus by the end of this month...and it is pretty much clear that most countries did lost it, and a handful that haven't already, are on the brink of losing it.

This week will be crystal clear that all of Europe lost control over the virus, and even if a full lock-down is implemented today, the effects will be felt at the end tail of November.


When looking at a 7% of the population being infected by the end of November, it is obvious that the medical system will collapse (as in any extra cases needing hospitalization won't be able to get it once hospitals are full).

We can see up to 3% of the population in Europe getting the virus by mid-November, and 4% between mid to end of November.


Europe's population (w/o Russia) is roughly 600 million. Based on my estimations, 3% of them (or roughly 18 million) will get infected by mid-November, and another 4% (24 million) between mid and end of November.


The overall positivity that I have calculated and posted in the previous major update, points to roughly 15% across Europe, which means that in reality, the number of infected people will be up to 4 times higher then the number of official detected cases, which in the case of 18 million real infected people by mid-November, means that the official cases will be roughly 4 times less, to around 4.5 million in the first 15 days or November.

It could be less, but not much less.


If my estimations are correct, Europe (w/o Russia) will see a median of around 300k official cases / day, in the first 15 days of November, with under 300k official cases at the beginning of November, and over 300k official cases toward mid-November.

After mid-November, 4% (or 24 million people) of Europe's population (w/o Russia) will contract the virus. The positivity rate of official testing will be close to 20% across Europe, which means the real number will be about 5 times higher, which ends up with an official number of cases across Europe in the range of 4.8 million cases in the last 15 days of November.

The median number of official cases in the last 15 days of November, across Europe, will be around 320k, lower at the beginning of the period, and higher towards the end.


It is highly likely that testing will increase, and the number of official cases to get higher, but that doesn't change the real numbers, it only changes the official numbers.


What these numbers mean, for Europe, in terms of hospitalizations and ICU?

Looking at what we know, there is a correlation between official cases (a non-reliable data) and hospitalization (a reliable -as much as we can rely on it- data).

About 10% of the official cases result in hospitalization. Even if the number of official cases is not real, we can assume that everyone that ends up in hospital gets tested for Covid-19, and the part of official cases that are linked to hospitalizations is as real as it gets, even of the overall official cases is clearly under the real number of infected.


Until recently (start of October), the number of new hospitalization was lower, on par, or slightly less then hospital discharges.

After mid-October, the number of new hospitalization rose to roughly 2 to 1 to discharges, and things won't get better in November.

So we can expect that 5% of the official cases will ADD to hospital bed capacity, which for November as a whole, for Europe, means over 900k hospitalization load, with around 450k discharges, ending up with roughly 450,000 ADDITIONAL hospital beds occupied by the end of November.


Now this is for the entire Europe, but remember, most of them will be in large urban areas, and I simply cannot see how the medical system can support such numbers.

As for ICU, about 10% of those hospitalized end up in ICU, and for Europe, this means an additional 45,000 ICU patients at the end of November.


The ONLY way to support such numbers, is for Germany to open up their hospitals for everyone in Europe, and most countries to call in the military medical resources to lessen the pressure on the civilian medical system, as well as calling back every single retired doctor and nurse, AND medical students.

And that is for NOVEMBER...


If Europe is going to see 300k official cases / day, starting in November, all my calculations will be correct, and we will see what my numbers are picturing : a war-like effort, across whole Europe, with military doctors, retired doctors and nurses, medical students and most likely volunteers (for food, cleaning, etc.) being called up.


The U.S. will see the same by mid-December, if they are lucky to push it up until mid-December.



AND WE STILL HAVE TO LOCK-DOWN, even if we are able to pull off ALL the resources (material and medical), because December and January will look just like November.



What I have said until now is the reason why I think full lock-downs are inevitable.


There is no way we can face what I have described, for months on a row. The society will be simply overwhelmed, nothing will function properly.

Our current population doesn't have the memory of a pandemic. We don't know HOW bad can it be. We didn't even been educated, or indoctrinated about pandemics.

Our movies about pandemics are under sci-fi or fantasy category. We always considered them as FICTIONAL and unlikely to happen, because we have massive technological advancement...without realizing that the medical field of today, when facing a pandemic, is pretty much THE SAME as the one 100 years ago.


We know a lot about wars. Movies, history and we still have enough elderly that have been in WW2, Korea, Vietnam. We're seen the atrocities in various civil wars. We KNOW that war is bad...but we HAVE NO IDEA (at a societal level) how BAD a pandemic can be.


It is going to get A LOT WORSE before the government will decide to lock-down again, because the governments are afraid of riots. Politicians will consider the lock-down timing based on how the population will perceive the pandemic.


When lock-downs will come, and they will, it will be too late for the medical system, and millions upon millions who will die because lack of medical care.

But when lock-downs will come, they will also come BEFORE the pandemic will be at it's worse, and many people will revolt.


This is why I recently said that Europe will lock-down by mid-November, and martial law by end of November, because martial law will be needed, for what is coming.

But I am afraid that not even martial law will be able to help, and society will break down by the end of this year.



I hope I am wrong.


But if I am not, please prepare, as much as you can, especially mentally, for what is coming.

Last Edited by Recollector on 10/27/2020 08:14 AM

thank DR for the update. Wild months ahead, for certain.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

DR. thank you for your update. Have you seen this report from the CDC. Healthcare workers accounting for 6% of all hospitalized cases. We are going to burn through our healthcare workers.

[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]

This is why we are going to need all hands on deck from medical staff, from retired, to military, to students.

Last Edited by Recollector on 10/27/2020 09:03 AM

Thanks DR

Could I ask you how much damage control could be done if lockdowns were implemented this week ? (A fools hope I know) Or is it very much too late and given the current trajectory would it only delay your predictions by a few more weeks if lockdowns did happen imminently?

Lockdowns at a nationwide level is what I mean

DR what about uprisings in those countries affected ? Will we see major riots or even something worse?

The effects of lock-downs will be felt usually 4 weeks after being in place.

So, for Europe, I don't see any changes for November. It might not get as bad as 60,000 patients in ICU at the end of November (yesterday there were just over 17k in ICU in Europe), but it won't be much less bad.


Localized full lock-downs, this week, in big urban areas might chip up to 6,000 ICU beds, and Europe could get to 55,000 -ish in ICU at the end of November...but that won't mean much, to be honest.


The hospitals will still be full, and ICU beds in large urban areas full before mid-November.



Frankly, I don't see any change for what I projected for November, in Europe, even if lock-downs hit today.

The changes will start to be seen in December, if drastic measures are in place this week.

Last Edited by Recollector on 10/27/2020 09:33 AM

God knows how big they will be, or how bad.


We will see riots in every major city in Europe, by mid-November. There will be more protests then riots, but at some point, there will be more riots then protests.


Will the riots be big enough to contain? In some cities, yes, and martial law will come into effect.


After that point, is anyone's guess how things will go.

Last Edited by Recollector on 10/27/2020 09:34 AM

common sense really bud. Alot of people dont want to lcokdown coz Freedums and that will skyrocket the numbers.
Govtments are in a hard place right now.

Lockdown and cause mass riots or open up and have massive infections.

The only way is to go Chinese style send in Military and weld all doors

Thank you for your update DR.

What you say is something that I can clearly feel into my heart and stomach...
Do you know that physical and psychological "perception" that someone has minutes before a storm will come?
You see the clouds getting darker and the distant sound of lightings...

That's what I am feeling these days...

As for my country, there are many aspects emerging in the last hours...

First of all: finally everyone (from Regions Governors to Hospitals managers) admitted that contact tracing strategy has gone.
For this reason, many Italian Regions are currently deciding if continue testing asymptomatic people or just focus their efforts on symptomatic patients who call the emergency number or go to the hospital or request a swab test because they already developed low/mild symptoms.
That will, obviously, relieve the pressure on labs and Healthcare system, but will also make the situation worse in a short period of time...

Second: there are many "shadow forces" in Italy that are currently taking advantage of protests in major cities.
Turin: high risk of anarchist clashes.
Milan: high risk of Far-Right forces clashes.
Rome: high risk of BlackBlock and Far-right forces clashes.
South Italy: very high risk of clashes started by clans.

Third: Policlinico Umberto I (in Rome), the largest hospital in Italy, released a bulletin stating that ICU beds are slowly been occupied by younger Covid-19 patients too... (30 and 40 years old... Very different from first wave).
This recalled to my mind what you said a few days ago: when the novel coronavirus will "know" how to attack younger people, it will be a disaster.

I am not a virologist, but I think (please someone tell me if I am wrong) that the only purpose of a virus is to replicate itself in a specific kind of host and become more and more effective in the way it is contagious...

I really hope that we can slow it down before it becomes more aggressive against teenagers...!

Thank you for detailed answer

Your updates are much appreciated (and anticipated)

i know how to solve the shortage of workers at Hospitals.

zget all the nothing burgers to give nurses and doctors a hand at hospitals since they dont believe in virus and wont be infected.

Lets see who will raise their hands and willing to volunteer

Why isn't Africa being affected by the virus?

In all fairness most are rightly correct when not trusting the government, they cried wolf far to many times they have no creditablity

Hi DR! Thank you for your great work. I'm Italian and I'm sharing it on Italian forum and they start taking your numbers and forecast seriously.
What's your opinion about Slovakia and Italy? Slovakia has implemented a light lockdown. May it work? They're gonna test the entire population between 10 and 65.
In Italy localized lockdowns (in metro area such as Naples and Milan) are highly likely. The curve is going up like crazy.

60,000 in ICU will mean 6,000 daily deaths just in Europe excluded Russia. It's gonna be a hell of a ride

The thing about testing is that once a certain number is reached, and that number project a number of contacts that are above a country's capability to trace, testing becomes irrelevant, because the SOLE reason of testing is to identify, trace and isolate cases.


Now, no matter if Italy will do what Spain and UK do (they DO NOT TEST asymptomatic cases, this is why Spain and UK look better...but they aren't better), this will not affect hospitalizations and ICU admissions.


This is the thing with this virus : mild cases can and will evolve into serious cases, and even if the hospitals won't admit mild cases, many of those mild cases will become serious, because they are not treated in a hospital, under medical supervision.


So, even if the hospital pressure will lower the moment mild cases are no longer admitted, this will only last DAYS, before the pressure of hospitalizations will go back up and be bigger then before.


Riots everywhere will be fueled by extremists, immigrants, unemployed and clans. Italy is no Different then France, or Poland, or Spain, or Bulgaria, or whatever.

Maybe Switzerland will have "aristocratic" riots, in the sense that they will be small and easily contained. But even Switzerland will have riots.



The virus most likely already mutated to be more contagious, after exposure to tens of millions of school children in Europe.

The number of mild cases in hospitals is at an all time low, less then 20% of hospitalized are mild cases, and the number of severe and critical cases is at an all time high, with over 35% of hospitalized patients.

It is basically the reverse now from the spring, when over 35% were mild cases and under 20% were serious and critical.



As I said, once we get to end of October, beginning of November, things will accelerate and get exponentially worse, and only full lock-downs can reverse the trend, but the longer we wait, the longer it will take for the trend to start reversing, and I am quite worried that we already passed the point when 2 months full lock-downs will be enough for a trend reverse.


We are now facing a worse case scenario : lock-downs to start as late as to need 4 months before trend is reversing and lowered to the point of reopening, riots will spread because in most people's view, lock-downs are not needed, and worse, they think the lock-downs don't work, due to dumbass politicians calling a lock-down when there effectively is no lock-down, and the medical system in Europe on brink of collapsing in all major urban areas.


By mid-November, Europe will be knee-deep in shit...and that shit will hit the fan.

It's going to be A LOT MORE then that. Like 10 times more then that, in reality, if we get to that point as I projected (end of November).


Those 6,000 death will be JUST those with Covid-19 that die in a hospital.


The rest will be because they don't have access medical care and ICU.

Last Edited by Recollector on 10/27/2020 10:07 AM