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LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.

 
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02/13/2020 02:25 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
The officials in Greece haven't announced any Coronavirus case for the moment. The weird thing though is that we had a sadden spike in deaths from the flu, 17 and 15 deaths in the two previous weeks with a total of 53 dead since October, so MOST of them died in the two previous weeks which is weird too because the weather is actually very nice and it isn't ideal for the spread of the flu virus. I am wondering if they actually report Coronavirus caused deaths as flu ones in order not to cause any panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472133


they will do whatever it takes to avoid panic.
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02/13/2020 02:29 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
The officials in Greece haven't announced any Coronavirus case for the moment. The weird thing though is that we had a sadden spike in deaths from the flu, 17 and 15 deaths in the two previous weeks with a total of 53 dead since October, so MOST of them died in the two previous weeks which is weird too because the weather is actually very nice and it isn't ideal for the spread of the flu virus. I am wondering if they actually report Coronavirus caused deaths as flu ones in order not to cause any panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472133


they will do whatever it takes to avoid panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78474501


hesright
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 02:42 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
Pardon my ignorance please, I’m trying to keep up with, and analyze, all the info, and it helps to identify sources.

OP, you created this model and you host the 001 intel thread?

Thanks!
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
20 min in and he's BASHING Trump for being stupid enough to cut the budget for CDC. Goddamned the stupid orange idiot.
[link to www.hsgac.senate.gov (secure)]
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02/13/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045



Would be great if OP would address this comment. Basically he is saying the R0 value is spread over a period of time that is much longer than 24 hours.

You can look at it like a bank account interest rate. Not 2% daily, but 2% over a much longer period - yet the 2% figure is correct.

Is the OP compounding this infection rate daily to arrive at the model's figures?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78468629

The R0 is an average, you can use that figure for what ever time frame you want, as long as you use that figure consistently. There are a few videos on YouTube that explain how to come up with this number yourself.
 Quoting: DeplorableDoomsdayGuy®


Not arguing with OP model or value of work (so many unknowns), but n R0 for infecting others during 24 hours versus 2 weeks does make a HUGE difference.
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02/13/2020 03:31 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045



Would be great if OP would address this comment. Basically he is saying the R0 value is spread over a period of time that is much longer than 24 hours.

You can look at it like a bank account interest rate. Not 2% daily, but 2% over a much longer period - yet the 2% figure is correct.

Is the OP compounding this infection rate daily to arrive at the model's figures?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78468629

The R0 is an average, you can use that figure for what ever time frame you want, as long as you use that figure consistently. There are a few videos on YouTube that explain how to come up with this number yourself.
 Quoting: DeplorableDoomsdayGuy®


Not arguing with OP model or value of work (so many unknowns), but n R0 for infecting others during 24 hours versus 2 weeks does make a HUGE difference.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


To clarify, the difference between infecting others (R0 of 2 people or whatever) during a 1 day period and the same rate during a 2 week period is the SPEED at which the epidemic spreads, not the number of people infected.
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02/13/2020 03:40 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
Seems to me; if the doubling period is just a few days, incubation is up to 42 days and most deaths are at least a few weeks from infection then statistics are very skewed by the huge influx before outcome. So the situation is even more dire.

Does anyone know the rationale for calculating the impact as anything over than the ratio of deaths to longer survivors?
piratedon
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
What sources do we have regarding the incubation period? I think focus needs to be on this, finding the best credible experts. (Please, not WHO, but actual scientific info). The incubation period has been getting longer and longer, we need a much better understanding and/or debunking.

.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
Also, what other virus has this kind of lengthy incubation period? That comparison might help - idk. We are all guessing for lack of verifiable info.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
Ok I found this paper on viral incubation periods, overall good info

[link to www.virology.ws]
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)] quotes it. 42 days incubation. I haven't watched it. I believe the original came from a source inside China but I could be wrong. The trouble is that with things moving so fast it will take time for more scientific sources to raise their heads and time is of the essence as they say.

Last Edited by piratedon on 02/13/2020 04:08 PM
piratedon
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
20 min in and he's BASHING Trump for being stupid enough to cut the budget for CDC. Goddamned the stupid orange idiot.
[link to www.hsgac.senate.gov (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78451900


But military needs to never be touched!!
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
The officials in Greece haven't announced any Coronavirus case for the moment. The weird thing though is that we had a sadden spike in deaths from the flu, 17 and 15 deaths in the two previous weeks with a total of 53 dead since October, so MOST of them died in the two previous weeks which is weird too because the weather is actually very nice and it isn't ideal for the spread of the flu virus. I am wondering if they actually report Coronavirus caused deaths as flu ones in order not to cause any panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472133


they will do whatever it takes to avoid panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78474501


Well.. doing calculated moves implies they are actually competent enough to think and plan. They are not. In fact they are totally unprepared to handle anything out of the ordinary and when a confirmed case presents itself they will panic trying to locate the contacts etc.
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02/13/2020 04:10 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ:
Independent, original, analytical, and determined. Have an exceptional ability to turn theories into solid plans of action. Highly value knowledge, competence, and structure. Driven to derive meaning from their visions. Long-range thinkers. Have very high standards for their performance, and the performance of others. Natural leaders, but will follow if they trust existing leaders.

Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :

Thanks to Japan quarantined cruise ship, the model will NOT be modified, as I previously stated, and I would like you all to take the time to read WHY the cruise ship quarantined in Japan prompted me not to modify the current model.

1.Japan knew that a confirmed case was on the cruise ship.
2.Japan knew that everyone on the cruise ship is a suspect.

In other words, Japan was FULLY PREPARED to quarantine and test everyone on that ship.

Even in this conditions, knowing where the suspected are, knowing that they are all in the same place and knowing that the quarantine was basically instant (duh, it's a ship), it took SIXTEEN HOURS for Japan to test and announce the test results for ONLY THIRTY-ONE people !

Not only that this will create a HUGE backlog, because Japan have to test almost 3,800 people, and if they needed bloody sixteen hours for 31 people, while being fully prepared BEFORE they quarantined the ship, this proves, without a shadow of the doubt that the official confirmed cases are a small fraction of the number of infected people.

Imagine that those 3,800 people on the cruise ship in Japan are spread over 20 countries...and nobody KNOWS who they are, where they are and who they were in close contact with.

It is crystal clear that the officially confirmed cases outside China are a mere fraction of the real number of infected people.

If a fully prepared Japan, a country with proverbial efficiency, and a top-notch healthcare system, needed SIXTEEN HOURS to test 31 people, all in the SAME PLACE and already QUARANTINED...I am sorry, but my model is probably OPTIMISTIC at this point.

JAPAN UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Japan’s Ministry of Health is unable to test all passengers on the #DiamondPrincess cruise for #COVID19, because their number of test kits are limited. They need to first test high-risk passengers but also have to take care of elderlies and patients with other diseases.

If Japan, one of the richest and developed countries in the WORLD, cannot AFFORD to test 3,700 people...no wonder that the number of officially confirmed cases is THAT LOW, compared to my model numbers.

I decided, AGAIN, not to modify my model. There is no point. It is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people !


IMPORTANT UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Recently, a number of cases officially reported as having a much longer incubation period, up to 40-42 days. Another cases reportedly having 20+ days.
As I said, this week is critical for my model, and official news on a longer period of incubation, point to a longer than 14 days incubation period.
If such cases continue to be reported, my model will need to be adjusted for a longer incubation period, and this changes the dynamic a lot, especially the contagion rate, because while many of the asymptomatic cases are contagious, they are far less contagious compared to symptomatic ones.
And this affects the infection chance, which was around 0.7-0.8 in my model.

The infection rate might get to 0.5-0.6, if the median incubation period is closer to 21 days.
This is bad news and good news. Bad, because many more cases will go undetected and keep spreading the virus, and good news because the R0 will drop under 2.0.

If the asymptomatic cases are highly contagious, the infection chance might go over 0.8...
As I said, this week is critical for my model.

I will keep add in the model the confirmed cases by authorities, but I will not modify the numbers of infected people in the model, with the note that I will add my calculated numbers proportionally for the U.S., Africa, India, South and Central America, Europe and South-East Asia.

Additionally, I will also apply a 20-21% (it is highly likely that is close to 18%, according to latest data, and I will modify the model numbers for serious cases after Feb.15th, but until that date, it will stay at 20-21%) rate for serious cases, that require hospitalization, to better predict when the healthcare systems (for each geographical area) will start to overload.

-----------------------------------------------

I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate and number of infected people outside China. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number (failed).
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists (working).
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 (failed).
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5 (failed).

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


IMPORTANT NOTE :
Due to information from CDC presser on January 31st, multiple testing is needed to confirm a case as being positive.
The multiple testing takes 36-48 hrs. until the test is confirmed as positive.
My model assumed much faster testing, with testing and confirmation being in the same day.No official information was public that testing needs 36-48 hrs at the time I posted my model.

-------------------------------------------------------
Model data from January 28th to February 5th is removed. It is old data, and no longer relevant, especially because the measures needed to slow/stop the pandemic outside China were not implemented.
-------------------------------------------------------

If by February 5th, 2020, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate and it will be impossible to contain it.

From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India, Africa and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 6-7th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones, in red, and lower-end in blue :

According to WHO and many official experts, the detection of cases is about 38%, which results in a 80% detection rate (*it is likely that the detection rate is 60% or even lower, as of February 10th) outside Africa and India.

The detection rate and testing in Central and South America SHOULD also be deducted, because the countries in Central and South America also lack testing kits, and there isn't much difference in their big cities hygiene and overcrowding compared to Indian and African cities. But they are not that bad, and have better, even if insufficient equipped healthcare systems.

The "share" of geographical areas, outside China, affected by the pandemic is as follows, considering that India and Africa are going to be more exposed compared to other areas :
1.India : 28-29% of infected / serious cases
2.Africa : 24-25% of infected / serious cases

3.Central + South America : 9% of infected / serious cases
4.U.S. + Canada : 4%-5% of infected / serious cases
5.Europe : 6-8% of infected / serious cases

6.Rest of Asia (minus China and India) : 26-27% of infected / serious cases


Important note : India and Africa will see most infected and most serious cases, but A LOT of them will go undetected, and most of the serious cases will not be able to go to a hospital, and will die at home, also undetected, hence, missing from official numbers.

I choose to keep the Central and South America as a 10% margin of error in the number of officially detected and confirmed cases outside Africa and India.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 6th :276,000 /345,000 infected, with 2,880/3,600 presenting symptoms
Serious cases that need hospitalization : 580 - 780
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 306 - 413.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India 274 - 367
80% detection rate applied : 219 - 293 serious cases should be detected and tested
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 275
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.

---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 7th :552,000 /690,000 infected, with 6,000/7,500 presenting symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 1,200 - 1,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 648 - 810.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
552 - 690
80% detection rate applied : 441 - 552 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 327
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 8th :1,148,000 /1,435,000 infected /12,480 /15,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization :2,500 3,120Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 1,350 - 1,685
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
1,150 - 1,435
80% detection rate applied : 920 - 1,148 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 354
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 9th : 2,384,000 /2,980,000 infected /21,960/ 27,456 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 4,400 - 5,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 2,376 - 2,970
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India : 2,024 - 2,530

80% detection rate applied : 1,619 - 2,204
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 379
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------
Feb 10th: 4,992,000 /6,240,000 infected/45,680/57,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 9,200 - 11,400

Africa+India+C&S.America serious cases, 64% of the total:
5,888 - 7,296
Remaining serious cases : 3,312 - 4,104
60% detection rate applied : 1,987 - 2,462

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 461
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------

Due to the latest announcement from Japan not having enough test kits to test all of the 3,700 people aboard the cruise ship, it is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people.
There is no point to see how many cases are being reported any longer.
There are simply not enough kits, no matter which country we are talking about.
That on top of the clear intent of all governments to hide and/or report as few cases as possible.


Feb 11th: 10,383,000 /12,979,000 infected / 94,480/ 118,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 18,900 - 23,600


Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100


Feb 13th: 46,576,000 /58,220,000 infected /407,700/ 509,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 81,600 - 101,900


Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000


Feb 15th:202,957,000 /253,697,000 infected /1,763,000/2,204,800 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 353,000 - 441,000



From February 16th - February 18th, multiple hospitals across the world, starting with India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Africa, will start to feel the pressure.Many hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will start to collapse in certain countries, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

United States and Europe hospitals will start see the pressure of patients, at the end of February-beginning of March, and will quickly be overwhelmed by mid-March.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


can we put this in GLP failed predictions list yet? lol

FAIL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78402657


The game is not over yet, but you can continue with your jokes until the moment when reality knocks on your door, stay here, there will still be news for you
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02/13/2020 04:51 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
First dead in Japan.

[link to www.voanews.com (secure)]
miabelieves

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02/13/2020 04:59 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
Pardon my ignorance please, I’m trying to keep up with, and analyze, all the info, and it helps to identify sources.

OP, you created this model and you host the 001 intel thread?

Thanks!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76862206


Revbo, hosts the 001 thread
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 06:45 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :

Thanks to Japan quarantined cruise ship, the model will NOT be modified, as I previously stated, and I would like you all to take the time to read WHY the cruise ship quarantined in Japan prompted me not to modify the current model.

1.Japan knew that a confirmed case was on the cruise ship.
2.Japan knew that everyone on the cruise ship is a suspect.

In other words, Japan was FULLY PREPARED to quarantine and test everyone on that ship.

Even in this conditions, knowing where the suspected are, knowing that they are all in the same place and knowing that the quarantine was basically instant (duh, it's a ship), it took SIXTEEN HOURS for Japan to test and announce the test results for ONLY THIRTY-ONE people !

Not only that this will create a HUGE backlog, because Japan have to test almost 3,800 people, and if they needed bloody sixteen hours for 31 people, while being fully prepared BEFORE they quarantined the ship, this proves, without a shadow of the doubt that the official confirmed cases are a small fraction of the number of infected people.

Imagine that those 3,800 people on the cruise ship in Japan are spread over 20 countries...and nobody KNOWS who they are, where they are and who they were in close contact with.

It is crystal clear that the officially confirmed cases outside China are a mere fraction of the real number of infected people.

If a fully prepared Japan, a country with proverbial efficiency, and a top-notch healthcare system, needed SIXTEEN HOURS to test 31 people, all in the SAME PLACE and already QUARANTINED...I am sorry, but my model is probably OPTIMISTIC at this point.

JAPAN UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Japan’s Ministry of Health is unable to test all passengers on the #DiamondPrincess cruise for #COVID19, because their number of test kits are limited. They need to first test high-risk passengers but also have to take care of elderlies and patients with other diseases.

If Japan, one of the richest and developed countries in the WORLD, cannot AFFORD to test 3,700 people...no wonder that the number of officially confirmed cases is THAT LOW, compared to my model numbers.

I decided, AGAIN, not to modify my model. There is no point. It is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people !


IMPORTANT UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Recently, a number of cases officially reported as having a much longer incubation period, up to 40-42 days. Another cases reportedly having 20+ days.
As I said, this week is critical for my model, and official news on a longer period of incubation, point to a longer than 14 days incubation period.
If such cases continue to be reported, my model will need to be adjusted for a longer incubation period, and this changes the dynamic a lot, especially the contagion rate, because while many of the asymptomatic cases are contagious, they are far less contagious compared to symptomatic ones.
And this affects the infection chance, which was around 0.7-0.8 in my model.

The infection rate might get to 0.5-0.6, if the median incubation period is closer to 21 days.
This is bad news and good news. Bad, because many more cases will go undetected and keep spreading the virus, and good news because the R0 will drop under 2.0.

If the asymptomatic cases are highly contagious, the infection chance might go over 0.8...
As I said, this week is critical for my model.

I will keep add in the model the confirmed cases by authorities, but I will not modify the numbers of infected people in the model, with the note that I will add my calculated numbers proportionally for the U.S., Africa, India, South and Central America, Europe and South-East Asia.

Additionally, I will also apply a 20-21% (it is highly likely that is close to 18%, according to latest data, and I will modify the model numbers for serious cases after Feb.15th, but until that date, it will stay at 20-21%) rate for serious cases, that require hospitalization, to better predict when the healthcare systems (for each geographical area) will start to overload.

-----------------------------------------------

I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate and number of infected people outside China. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number (failed).
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists (working).
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 (failed).
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5 (failed).

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


IMPORTANT NOTE :
Due to information from CDC presser on January 31st, multiple testing is needed to confirm a case as being positive.
The multiple testing takes 36-48 hrs. until the test is confirmed as positive.
My model assumed much faster testing, with testing and confirmation being in the same day.No official information was public that testing needs 36-48 hrs at the time I posted my model.

-------------------------------------------------------
Model data from January 28th to February 5th is removed. It is old data, and no longer relevant, especially because the measures needed to slow/stop the pandemic outside China were not implemented.
-------------------------------------------------------

If by February 5th, 2020, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate and it will be impossible to contain it.

From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India, Africa and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 6-7th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones, in red, and lower-end in blue :

According to WHO and many official experts, the detection of cases is about 38%, which results in a 80% detection rate (*it is likely that the detection rate is 60% or even lower, as of February 10th) outside Africa and India.

The detection rate and testing in Central and South America SHOULD also be deducted, because the countries in Central and South America also lack testing kits, and there isn't much difference in their big cities hygiene and overcrowding compared to Indian and African cities. But they are not that bad, and have better, even if insufficient equipped healthcare systems.

The "share" of geographical areas, outside China, affected by the pandemic is as follows, considering that India and Africa are going to be more exposed compared to other areas :
1.India : 28-29% of infected / serious cases
2.Africa : 24-25% of infected / serious cases

3.Central + South America : 9% of infected / serious cases
4.U.S. + Canada : 4%-5% of infected / serious cases
5.Europe : 6-8% of infected / serious cases

6.Rest of Asia (minus China and India) : 26-27% of infected / serious cases


Important note : India and Africa will see most infected and most serious cases, but A LOT of them will go undetected, and most of the serious cases will not be able to go to a hospital, and will die at home, also undetected, hence, missing from official numbers.

I choose to keep the Central and South America as a 10% margin of error in the number of officially detected and confirmed cases outside Africa and India.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 6th :276,000 /345,000 infected, with 2,880/3,600 presenting symptoms
Serious cases that need hospitalization : 580 - 780
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 306 - 413.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India 274 - 367
80% detection rate applied : 219 - 293 serious cases should be detected and tested
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 275
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.

---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 7th :552,000 /690,000 infected, with 6,000/7,500 presenting symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 1,200 - 1,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 648 - 810.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
552 - 690
80% detection rate applied : 441 - 552 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 327
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 8th :1,148,000 /1,435,000 infected /12,480 /15,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization :2,500 3,120Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 1,350 - 1,685
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
1,150 - 1,435
80% detection rate applied : 920 - 1,148 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 354
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 9th : 2,384,000 /2,980,000 infected /21,960/ 27,456 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 4,400 - 5,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 2,376 - 2,970
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India : 2,024 - 2,530

80% detection rate applied : 1,619 - 2,204
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 379
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------
Feb 10th: 4,992,000 /6,240,000 infected/45,680/57,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 9,200 - 11,400

Africa+India+C&S.America serious cases, 64% of the total:
5,888 - 7,296
Remaining serious cases : 3,312 - 4,104
60% detection rate applied : 1,987 - 2,462

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 461
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------

Due to the latest announcement from Japan not having enough test kits to test all of the 3,700 people aboard the cruise ship, it is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people.
There is no point to see how many cases are being reported any longer.
There are simply not enough kits, no matter which country we are talking about.
That on top of the clear intent of all governments to hide and/or report as few cases as possible.


Feb 11th: 10,383,000 /12,979,000 infected / 94,480/ 118,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 18,900 - 23,600


Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100


Feb 13th: 46,576,000 /58,220,000 infected /407,700/ 509,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 81,600 - 101,900


Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000


Feb 15th:202,957,000 /253,697,000 infected /1,763,000/2,204,800 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 353,000 - 441,000



From February 16th - February 18th, multiple hospitals across the world, starting with India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Africa, will start to feel the pressure.Many hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will start to collapse in certain countries, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

United States and Europe hospitals will start see the pressure of patients, at the end of February-beginning of March, and will quickly be overwhelmed by mid-March.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78436358
Ukraine
02/13/2020 07:24 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
...


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith



Dapscoin.com privacy coin project founded by a female. Up 70% this year DYOR
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74832186
United States
02/13/2020 07:31 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
...


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


Move in next to me chuckle
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77526333
United States
02/13/2020 08:59 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
...


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


I would give it a 50/50 that Tax Day will happen.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77443453
United States
02/13/2020 10:23 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OP - at this point if there aren’t 800-1,000 by Feb 16th, this it only means your model is lagging in time. This virus isn’t stopping. More and more are claiming the R0 is greater than 2. No matter what the actual number it is obviously greater than 1 and I don’t think Western countries has the wherewithal to impose a Chinese Lockdown.

It is unfathomable what we are witnessing and what we will witness.
Thinking Ahead
User ID: 78353982
United States
02/13/2020 10:32 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OPIE here is another helpful potential thread what do you think? Should we go get these items?

Thread: Email I just sent to my estranged wife regarding Coronavirus. THIS COULD SAVE LIVES...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74996941
France
02/13/2020 11:18 PM
Report Abusive Post
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472576


Is 'Wish' the SA state postal service? Or maybe the decision is more recent than two days ago?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


Wish is a Chinese online store like Alibaba, they deliver through the South African Postal service.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78473572


Thanks for this info. hf
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74996941
France
02/13/2020 11:27 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
[link to www.ccn.com (secure)]


Dow Tumbles as U.S. Warned of 100,000s of Coronavirus Cases

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


“Dow tumbles”????

Strange, because I’m looking right at it and it’s at the highest level it’s ever been in stock market history.

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


Yes, I found that strange too (a click bait?) but the potential 100,000 cases are far more interesting.
Fluffy Pancakes

User ID: 76116140
United States
02/13/2020 11:44 PM

Report Abusive Post
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OPIE here is another helpful potential thread what do you think? Should we go get these items?

Thread: Email I just sent to my estranged wife regarding Coronavirus. THIS COULD SAVE LIVES...
 Quoting: Thinking Ahead 78353982


We went and got them...Out of an abundance of caution.
Things are bad enough, there is no need to make anything up.

"Never interrupt an enemy in the process of destroying himself."...Q
TIO JUAN

User ID: 78448385
Mexico
02/14/2020 01:45 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
UNCLE JOHN
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74270969
Austria
02/14/2020 03:05 AM
Report Abusive Post
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Are you really sure that it's not everywhere already? The number of infected could be true, but just a very few need professional care. The number of people showing flu like symptoms in Austria is growing sharply since week 3 of 2020. Now the weekly number of new patients is double as much as in 2019: [link to www.virologie.meduniwien.ac.at (secure)]
So last week 2314 new people with flu like symptoms, and only 157 tested for Corona-virus. A joke, even considering the fact PR slogan that all of the tests were negative.
Sources: [link to www.virologie.meduniwien.ac.at (secure)]
[link to www.sozialministerium.at (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74270969
Austria
02/14/2020 03:09 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
Sorry, 2314/100000 people, so over 200000 new possible cases in a single week.

OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Are you really sure that it's not everywhere already? The number of infected could be true, but just a very few need professional care. The number of people showing flu like symptoms in Austria is growing sharply since week 3 of 2020. Now the weekly number of new patients is double as much as in 2019: [link to www.virologie.meduniwien.ac.at (secure)]
So last week 2314 new people with flu like symptoms, and only 157 tested for Corona-virus. A joke, even considering the fact PR slogan that all of the tests were negative.
Sources: [link to www.virologie.meduniwien.ac.at (secure)]
[link to www.sozialministerium.at (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74270969
darth

User ID: 28178764
United States
02/14/2020 03:25 AM
Report Abusive Post
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe)-MAJOR UPDATE pg.70.-South Korea and Italy(Daily Updates) pg.79.
...


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


Call me old fashioned. I used my surplus cash to buy a milk cow and some calves for slaughter.

Also some new/young chickens to maintain egg production.

Bought 21 yards of quality garden soil to ensure a good harvest this year.





GLP