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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China

 
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/14/2020 07:06 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OP - at this point if there aren’t 800-1,000 by Feb 16th, this it only means your model is lagging in time. This virus isn’t stopping. More and more are claiming the R0 is greater than 2. No matter what the actual number it is obviously greater than 1 and I don’t think Western countries has the wherewithal to impose a Chinese Lockdown.

It is unfathomable what we are witnessing and what we will witness.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77443453


I already said that my model is going to be off, but atm, the best case scenario is 6 day off, and the worst is 2 day off.


Once this week is over, the model will be adjusted and updated, and I will most likely add a new column in my model, based on official confirmed cases and detection chance of 10%-15% (as many experts agree on), to see how much the difference is, and when, on the timeline, the numbers in my model come withing range of the new column numbers.


But there are still 2 and a half days to go before I do it.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/14/2020 07:15 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/14/2020 07:27 AM
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/14/2020 10:40 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
[link to www.ccn.com (secure)]


Dow Tumbles as U.S. Warned of 100,000s of Coronavirus Cases

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


“Dow tumbles”????

Strange, because I’m looking right at it and it’s at the highest level it’s ever been in stock market history.

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


That's just because traders aren't watching AIS data. Let's a play a game. It's called find the Cosco vessels in US ports and harbors. I've found a couple but they haven't moved for a few days.

[link to shiptracker.live (secure)]
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/14/2020 10:49 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What I think is interesting that some of the earlier models that I found were all pretty spot-on in the beginning. And right around the 1st & 2nd, they stopped being accurate.

Some of it I'm sure is due to inaccurate numbers being reported by world governments. So the question is if they worked earlier and not now, why? The model didn't get the virus and stop working. The laws of physics, math, and science didn't suddenly change a couple of weeks back. Math doesn't give a fuck about your race or political party, but for some reason, the R0 seems to be different everywhere you look.
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2020 11:00 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


The way I see it, so what if his numbers are “off”? (he concedes they are.... it’s just a mathematical model).

So even if his numbers are grossly inaccurate, what is the worst thing that happens in your life? You actually buy preps and strategize a survival plan? How does that harm you?

Let’s say OP’s thread is just one big exercise in “fear mongering”.... if so, how are you being harmed or damaged? How are having emergency supplies hurting you? How is taking precautions to protect and strengthen your immune system harming you? How is developing a plan to network with like-minded people causing you to be damaged?

I simply see NO downside in taking protective actions based on OP’s thread. Even if he’s completely wrong and absolutely full of shit, I fail to see how I’m being injured in any way at all. To the contrary, I’ve increased my emergency preps, bought 2 more firearms, protected my investments against a market slide, learned a lot more about SARS and CV than I ever knew, learned about the different methods to limit ACE2 access to the virus, learned about Cytokines, learned about additional immune system nutriceuticals, and now I’m a more disciplined and careful germiphobe than I was previously.

How is ANY of that harming me?

By listening to the man, we all have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

So what difference does it make if his numbers are accurate, inaccurate, or just plain lies?
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


^^^This x1000
Well said.
I have done very similar.
mr. jingles

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02/14/2020 11:02 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What I think is interesting that some of the earlier models that I found were all pretty spot-on in the beginning. And right around the 1st & 2nd, they stopped being accurate.

Some of it I'm sure is due to inaccurate numbers being reported by world governments. So the question is if they worked earlier and not now, why? The model didn't get the virus and stop working. The laws of physics, math, and science didn't suddenly change a couple of weeks back. Math doesn't give a fuck about your race or political party, but for some reason, the R0 seems to be different everywhere you look.
 Quoting: DeplorableDoomsdayGuy®


If governments are lying about cases and numbers, what do you think would be the reason its off?

Hint: its in the question i just gave
mr. jingles
IdeaMan1624

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02/14/2020 01:31 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Are We the “Fixers” - This is a pre-economy post (my economy post will be coming out Sunday night only in this thread). But I wanted to plant this seed.

There is still much to learn in the days/weeks/months ahead about this virus and how it will impact each of us and where we live. We have a pretty good view of the horrible impact it has already taken in only 60 days for the Chinese people. As other countries situations begin to unfold we will learn more and more on the possible impact the virus should effect us and our locations. I believe OPs model is good and helped all of us in this thread. And I am looking forward to his updated version soon as I believe it will be the most accurate and best knowledge for us to handle the next phase of this virus. I also believe the “real” cycle of this virus is closer to 60 days not 14-21. My rational for this 60 day thinking is factoring in certain other elements like no real legit test, no real reporting, etc. Remember China learned of this virus in mid Dec, acknowledged its existence in mid January and still is not reporting real numbers. I think Japan and Singapore reporting will be different. I think here in the USA we are just at the very beginning. Will we see people drop in the street like in China? People suffer from multiple organ failures like in China? Set up 1000 bed triage centers like in China? Or will we or other countries just have a bad cold. Time will tell.

But one thing is for ABSOLUTE certain……..the global economy and to a higher degree certain local economies will be devastated due to China’s complete halt of their economy and global production. Ok back to the “Fixer”. Please follow me with this seed/idea. There was a great TV commercial during the SuperBowl (American football game) this year. I really really liked it. It was a Budweiser beer commercial. Here is a link [link to youtu.be (secure)] . Throw out the product and just watch the 60 second commercial. Someone is going to have to FIX this global economy and virus problem. Just like the Great Generation saved the world in WWII. Are we going to be The Fixers to save the world in this global catastrophe? Personally I would kind of like to be known as “I was one of the Fixers”. This obviously would include anyone in the world that contributes in some way. But someone must take the lead. Can Trump do this? How about you? Watch that TV commercial again [link to youtu.be (secure)] and always remember, everything begins with an idea.

Last Edited by IdeaMan1624 on 02/14/2020 09:01 PM
IdeaMan1624
mr. jingles

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02/14/2020 02:17 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Hey guys im copying and pasting my experience i had today for OP


San diego VA

I went to get a simple pain procedure done and its on the 5th floor. However when the elevator opened there was a combination of 40 nurses and doctors waiting to go down the elevators. They looked a little confused why i was on this floor and heading to the waiting/ check in area. As i walked to (what was) my waiting area i quickly realized i was in the wrong place (they had moved my area) and i started reading placards. INFECTIOUS DISEASE.

Just using my common sense here..... but they are prepping guys.

Last Edited by mr. jingles on 02/14/2020 02:17 PM
mr. jingles
71cuda
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02/14/2020 03:34 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


ty so much, this is critical info
71
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02/14/2020 03:35 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


ty so much, this is critical info
 Quoting: 71cuda 78330135
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2020 05:48 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP is right on the money:

"Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the FDA said there are “certainly cases we don’t know about” in the US and he called for expanded testing because we’re “capturing 25% of cases at best.”“We’re going to see those outbreaks start to emerge in the next two to four weeks.”

"Asha George, executive director of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense, said there are generally seven or eight unseen cases for every known case. “It may be hundreds of thousands of cases” here ultimately, she warned.

Julie Gerberding, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said she is “very concerned about the prospects for long-term containment” and warned that “we simply don’t have the surge capacity” to handle a widespread outbreak.

Luciano Borio (former NSC) said number of actual cases is “much, much higher” than reported & “very concerning for a pandemic.” She said it is “sufficiently lethal to stress severely the health-care system” and “we need to brace ourselves for difficult weeks or months to come. …

#US #publichealth experts came before Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee today w/ worrisome warnings: The #coronavirus is probably already in US in greater numbers than we know & should show itself in clusters in the coming weeks.

Sources:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

[link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75392508



I agree - OP's numbers might be a bit exaggerated but not by much.

Neil Ferguson from UK believes in numbers that are more in line with OPs.

Couple all of that with the Twitter text rumour of the CDC employee texting that there are 1000 cases in US right now.......I believe it.

If there are truly 1000 cases - then it is just a matter of time.

That would imply that at the beginning of February, the US was approximately where China was at the beginning of December.

Dr. John Campbell (from UK) said that he was in recent contact with a doctor friend in Africa who confirmed that his country (didn't say which one) had ZERO test kits and that he doubted any of the surrounding countries had any at all either.

Africa is CRAWLING with Chinese people building all kinds of stuff (they are good at that). There is NO WAY there are no infections in Africa. NO WAY.

Japan won't even test all 3700 people on the ship due to lack of kits.

NOT TO MENTION - the accuracy rate of the test kits appears to be somewhere in the 30-50% range. TERRIBLE.

While we do not really know the fatality rate - it appears to be somewhere between 1-2% ON AVERAGE. Sure, some areas of the world will have higher or lower death rates - but on average 1-2%. This is still alarmingly high for a virus that is so contagious.

Neil Ferguson (from UK) is very concerned about this virus b/c of its ability to spread so easily. In one interview, he implies that it is actually more powerful when the deathrate isn't too high as it won't burn out.

I don't think anyone needs to BUGOUT....as this virus is likely to return again next season and again and again.....at least for a few waves (a lot like Spanish Flu but with a lower death rate).
Anonymous Coward
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02/15/2020 01:22 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I believe that the OP numbers are far below reality, perhaps 1/3 of the actual numbers.
But as we have no truth whatsoever in the official figures, we have to deal with speculation.

Thank you OP for the excellent work, if my family survives this chaos we will be forever grateful that you have alerted us in time.

hf
piratedon

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02/15/2020 02:54 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China

OP is right on the money:
...
While we do not really know the fatality rate - it appears to be somewhere between 1-2% ON AVERAGE. Sure, some areas of the world will have higher or lower death rates - but on average 1-2%. This is still alarmingly high for a virus that is so contagious.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75392508


It is a long time since I last studied statistics; It seems to me though that with a case doubling time of just a few days the fatality rate will always be diminished or skewed by the huge influx of new cases. Also the lengthy contagion and an average time to 'Outcome' often lengthy. Couple this with the possibility being muted now (Chris Martenson and others) that reinfection (or ConV-19 B) is the bigger killer.

We would need statistics that report reinfections separately. Also dealing only with the ratio of recovery to deaths as the only meaningful stat.

Have I got it wrong OP? Anyone?

Last Edited by piratedon on 02/15/2020 02:55 AM
piratedon
TidesofTruth

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02/15/2020 05:18 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I'll take that bet. See you on the 15th. So many factors unknown to make such careless hyperbolic conjectures.
 Quoting: TidesofTruth


ITS the 15th asshat. Where are the 2,204,800 Presenting Symptoms? Even if they were hiding numbers it can't be 2.2 million worth. Post like these are so irresponsible, so much so when a real problem arises no one will believe it.

DOOM is not forcastable. It comes suddenly and overtakes quickly.

Last Edited by TidesofTruth on 02/15/2020 05:20 AM
Anonymous Coward
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02/15/2020 05:52 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Are We the “Fixers” - This is a pre-economy post (my economy post will be coming out Sunday night only in this thread). But I wanted to plant this seed.

There is still much to learn in the days/weeks/months ahead about this virus and how it will impact each of us and where we live. We have a pretty good view of the horrible impact it has already taken in only 60 days for the Chinese people. As other countries situations begin to unfold we will learn more and more on the possible impact the virus should effect us and our locations. I believe OPs model is good and helped all of us in this thread. And I am looking forward to his updated version soon as I believe it will be the most accurate and best knowledge for us to handle the next phase of this virus. I also believe the “real” cycle of this virus is closer to 60 days not 14-21. My rational for this 60 day thinking is factoring in certain other elements like no real legit test, no real reporting, etc. Remember China learned of this virus in mid Dec, acknowledged its existence in mid January and still is not reporting real numbers. I think Japan and Singapore reporting will be different. I think here in the USA we are just at the very beginning. Will we see people drop in the street like in China? People suffer from multiple organ failures like in China? Set up 1000 bed triage centers like in China? Or will we or other countries just have a bad cold. Time will tell.

But one thing is for ABSOLUTE certain……..the global economy and to a higher degree certain local economies will be devastated due to China’s complete halt of their economy and global production. Ok back to the “Fixer”. Please follow me with this seed/idea. There was a great TV commercial during the SuperBowl (American football game) this year. I really really liked it. It was a Budweiser beer commercial. Here is a link [link to youtu.be (secure)] . Throw out the product and just watch the 60 second commercial. Someone is going to have to FIX this global economy and virus problem. Just like the Great Generation saved the world in WWII. Are we going to be The Fixers to save the world in this global catastrophe? Personally I would kind of like to be known as “I was one of the Fixers”. This obviously would include anyone in the world that contributes in some way. But someone must take the lead. Can Trump do this? How about you? Watch that TV commercial again [link to youtu.be (secure)] and always remember, everything begins with an idea.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624



[link to broward.ghost.io (secure)]

I believe the superspreaders are not real,
they are the initial infectious stage
and changes over time. My best guess
is that it's around 8 or 9.

I tried changing the cycle time from 5 days to 2.5 days
on the cruise ship data and out popped a R0 of 9,
so a true cycle of 2.4 would not surprise me at all.

I think the virus is designed with a pretty broad
range of incubation times and suspect it's bimodal
curve. Most of the time it fits into tolerable
14-21 day range but has a second distribution around
the 42 day mark.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/15/2020 07:26 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I'll take that bet. See you on the 15th. So many factors unknown to make such careless hyperbolic conjectures.
 Quoting: TidesofTruth


ITS the 15th asshat. Where are the 2,204,800 Presenting Symptoms? Even if they were hiding numbers it can't be 2.2 million worth. Post like these are so irresponsible, so much so when a real problem arises no one will believe it.

DOOM is not forcastable. It comes suddenly and overtakes quickly.
 Quoting: TidesofTruth



Someone doesn't understand what a mathematical model is. Yeah, that is you.

I don't know why are you so mad. Doom is not predictable, I give you that.

But where do you see me giving any date for doom?


What I said was common sense : IF my model is right, the healthcare systems will start feeling the pressure from Mid-February onward.

My model was posted on January 28th, very little information was known at that point. And I repeat again, it is a MATHEMATICAL model.

Not a prediction.


Just look at the official data outside China, at this very moment. There are 689 confirmed cases. ONLY 27 of them are serious/critical.

Every single medical authority and experts are saying that 15% of the cases are serious , with 3% critical. So, 18% of the cases are serious and critical.

Well, 18% of 689 cases is 124.

But we have only 27...that is 4.6 TIMES LESS than what it SHOULD BE.


Why the discrepancy? Why there are only 27 serious/critical cases instead 124?

The answer is simple : the detection rate of infected people outside China is very low, probably less than 5%.


I have already said, multiple times, that this week is critical for my model, and it is clear that the basis of my model is wrong.


I also said that the model will be modified after this week is over.


Now, you asked where are the 2.2 million presenting symptoms. But there is another number there...1.7 million.

Are there 1.7 million people outside China, presenting symptoms?

MOST LIKELY YES, or damn CLOSE to 1.7 million.


And if you wait until Monday, you will understand WHY my model is maybe 3-4 days off.


There are 4.4 BILLION people in countries that reported a total of FOUR CASES : India 3 and Egypt 1.

There are 1.9 BILLION people in countries that reported 684 cases.


Do you really ask me where the the 1.7 million, or heck, the 2.2 million presenting symptoms?

Well, 70% of those are those countries that reported ZERO cases, because those countries can't even diagnose a fucking headache, that's how underdeveloped they are.


You seem to not understand numbers...2.2 million is A LOT for you? When there are 6.3 BILLION people outside China, with 70% of them in countries that are living in the 1950's standards, AT BEST?

While almost the entire 30% left are in countries in FULL flu season, where virtually none is testing the flu-like symptomatic people for COVID19, simply slapping the FLU diagnostic on them?


Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/15/2020 08:27 AM
Zovalex

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02/15/2020 08:27 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Where are the 2,204,800 Presenting Symptoms? Even if they were hiding numbers it can't be 2.2 million worth. Post like these are so irresponsible, so much so when a real problem arises no one will believe it.
 Quoting: TidesofTruth


Irresponsible??

In the 15 years that I’ve been a part of GLP and I’ve read countless Doom posts during that period, THIS thread is the ONLY Doom thread I’ve ever taken seriously. I submit that OP’s thread is likely the single MOST responsible Doom thread that I’ve seen on GLP in 15 years.

And apparently you missed my post which is right above at the top of this page. You may wish to read it and address the questions I posted.

.
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“You have been programmed to resist the very person that is here to set you free, from the prison of your Mind... You are not free... everything you are has been manufactured by Minds that have not your best interest. You are imprisoned by beliefs and not reality. Religions are mental programs to imprison your Mind.”

-SOL
Close_with&destroy

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02/15/2020 08:37 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Well said! I've had this very discussion with some doubters and naysayers at work. I'm fortunate that my wife and adult children have their eyes open and are on board with preparing for the potential spread of this virus.
On that same note, I have been a fairly serious "prepper" for a little over 20 years, and upped my game during the 2014-2016 Ebola scare. While Ebola didn't spread, I did suffer the loss of my career in 2018. I was either unemployed or under employed for 18 months. Our preps really helped during that time. By stocking up during times of plenty, we were able to weather the lean times.
I'm sorry, I don't mean to derail this thread. I just wanted to use a personal experience to back up what was said. I have very young grandchildren, I don't want doom, but for their sake, I will prepare for doom.

OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


The way I see it, so what if his numbers are “off”? (he concedes they are.... it’s just a mathematical model).

So even if his numbers are grossly inaccurate, what is the worst thing that happens in your life? You actually buy preps and strategize a survival plan? How does that harm you?

Let’s say OP’s thread is just one big exercise in “fear mongering”.... if so, how are you being harmed or damaged? How are having emergency supplies hurting you? How is taking precautions to protect and strengthen your immune system harming you? How is developing a plan to network with like-minded people causing you to be damaged?

I simply see NO downside in taking protective actions based on OP’s thread. Even if he’s completely wrong and absolutely full of shit, I fail to see how I’m being injured in any way at all. To the contrary, I’ve increased my emergency preps, bought 2 more firearms, protected my investments against a market slide, learned a lot more about SARS and CV than I ever knew, learned about the different methods to limit ACE2 access to the virus, learned about Cytokines, learned about additional immune system nutriceuticals, and now I’m a more disciplined and careful germiphobe than I was previously.

How is ANY of that harming me?

By listening to the man, we all have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

So what difference does it make if his numbers are accurate, inaccurate, or just plain lies?
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


Last Edited by Close_with&destroy on 02/15/2020 08:38 AM
Close_with&destroy
IdeaMan1624

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02/15/2020 09:29 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
The Great Chinese Fall – Yes you can even see this with the naked eye from space. It is utterly amazing to me to witness live during these past 30 days the complete implosion of the mighty Chinese economy and global production machine. Amazingly unbelievable and I can guarantee you 99.9% of all the mighty wall street gurus would never have believed China’s economy and global production machine could be entirely dismantled in 30 days without one single bomb from a plane. But that is exactly what’s has happened. China’s massive and powerful economy (actually just became the largest economy in the world) is gone. Their global production machine that generated the trillions of Renminbi (Yuan) to drive their economy, provide resources to their population, provide capital to the CCP to invest and build their massive army and arsenal is now gone too. Their economy and massive power as a country would not exist without their global production machine and the global production machine is gone for good. No investors will ever want to or reinvest into China again after this event and all the horrible human rights videos surface to the regular people (you and I have seen many already). I believe, AND HOPE the CCP is done too (more on this in my next post). Just watch more of the videos of what the CCP has done to its people to save their economy and global production machine without success. Even trying to send their population back to work during this deadly virus only to be told no - by only 15% showing up to work. This, not going back to work when ordered to do so, is actually a very good sign for the Chinese people. Anger can be very good if the energy coming from anger is focused in the right direction. Hint Hint

Read the above paragraph again because if defines how fragile this world really is.

I take time to get outside and “smell the roses”. I suggest you and your family do the same. The time may be coming very swiftly that you cannot enjoy it. At least for a while. Enjoy it with your family while you can.
IdeaMan1624
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/15/2020 12:05 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
A new, adjusted model is up on the first page.
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
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02/15/2020 12:17 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
A new, adjusted model is up on the first page.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thanks for the updated numbers. Still a dire picture if traveling restrictions. Are not enforced.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
Anonymous Coward
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02/15/2020 12:24 PM
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Thanks for the updated model.
I'm going to assume the new model is a "best case scenario" if the info from the CDC insider is correct that there are already 1000 confirmed cases within CONUS.
Like you said, time will tell.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/15/2020 12:27 PM
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Thanks for the updated model.
I'm going to assume the new model is a "best case scenario" if the info from the CDC insider is correct that there are already 1000 confirmed cases within CONUS.
Like you said, time will tell.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


It's based on latest information.

I don't know if it's optimistic or not, but it is much closer to reality, considering that the Los Alamos Lab study was peer reviewed and accepted as very reliable.
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
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02/15/2020 12:33 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
This kind of models are a conceptual tool for making decisions. There’s no way to know the exact reality at this moment, but this model gives a range. Anyone looking at this model can realize that this virus is a threat to the global economy, at the very least.

Probably, decision making authorities have their own models that may diverge or converge with this. Whatever the model, I suspect all of them paint a bleak outlook, so one can understand why certain measures are being taken.

What Gets me pissed of is that, at any rate, authorities are more worried about holding the panic and keeping the system running as long as they can, rather than to properly inform the people.

That’s why this model is so valuable for us, because it is telling us that we need to make decisions to weather this storm, and for that I can’t thank OP properly enough.

Last Edited by Red Hot Chilean Pepe on 02/15/2020 12:34 PM
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
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02/15/2020 01:12 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Well said! I've had this very discussion with some doubters and naysayers at work. I'm fortunate that my wife and adult children have their eyes open and are on board with preparing for the potential spread of this virus.
On that same note, I have been a fairly serious "prepper" for a little over 20 years, and upped my game during the 2014-2016 Ebola scare. While Ebola didn't spread, I did suffer the loss of my career in 2018. I was either unemployed or under employed for 18 months. Our preps really helped during that time. By stocking up during times of plenty, we were able to weather the lean times.
I'm sorry, I don't mean to derail this thread. I just wanted to use a personal experience to back up what was said. I have very young grandchildren, I don't want doom, but for their sake, I will prepare for doom.

OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


The way I see it, so what if his numbers are “off”? (he concedes they are.... it’s just a mathematical model).

So even if his numbers are grossly inaccurate, what is the worst thing that happens in your life? You actually buy preps and strategize a survival plan? How does that harm you?

Let’s say OP’s thread is just one big exercise in “fear mongering”.... if so, how are you being harmed or damaged? How are having emergency supplies hurting you? How is taking precautions to protect and strengthen your immune system harming you? How is developing a plan to network with like-minded people causing you to be damaged?

I simply see NO downside in taking protective actions based on OP’s thread. Even if he’s completely wrong and absolutely full of shit, I fail to see how I’m being injured in any way at all. To the contrary, I’ve increased my emergency preps, bought 2 more firearms, protected my investments against a market slide, learned a lot more about SARS and CV than I ever knew, learned about the different methods to limit ACE2 access to the virus, learned about Cytokines, learned about additional immune system nutriceuticals, and now I’m a more disciplined and careful germiphobe than I was previously.

How is ANY of that harming me?

By listening to the man, we all have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

So what difference does it make if his numbers are accurate, inaccurate, or just plain lies?
.
 Quoting: Zovalex

 Quoting: Close_with&destroy


Well said, Destroy. Our prepping has saved us during a few times of underemployment and unemployment, as well.
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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02/15/2020 01:17 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
A new, adjusted model is up on the first page.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Re-pinned you, OP.
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ:
Independent, original, analytical, and determined. Have an exceptional ability to turn theories into solid plans of action. Highly value knowledge, competence, and structure. Driven to derive meaning from their visions. Long-range thinkers. Have very high standards for their performance, and the performance of others. Natural leaders, but will follow if they trust existing leaders.

Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Follow. But! Follow only if ye be men of valor! For the entrance to this cave is guarded by a creature so foul, so cruel, that no man yet has fought with it... and lived! BONES of full fifty men lie *strewn* about its lair! So! Brave knights! If you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for death awaits you all with nasty, big, pointy teeth...

KillerBunnyMask
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02/15/2020 01:18 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
A new, adjusted model is up on the first page.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thank you.
For work is saving lives.
freddy colins

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02/15/2020 01:19 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Lmao- planeload of chinese just landed at sfo- several passengers had to carried out on stretchers...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72950895


link? pic's?
 Quoting: Storm2come


burn the plane.

bert-facepalm
Anonymous Coward
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02/15/2020 01:27 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
#'s:

(1) The "official" numbers out of China are BS based on their actions - shut down cities, build "hospitals" for the sick in a few days, round people up, - and likely under reporting two orders of magnitude or more (as various people have said) - i.e, - e.g., > than 130,000 deaths already

(2) The "official" numbers outside China are intriguing (e.g., US numbers) suggesting either that (1) they are low or (2) something's going on with respect to the location of the outbreak (Wuhan) and the people involved there versus much of the rest of the world.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/15/2020 01:29 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
A new, adjusted model is up on the first page.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Re-pinned you, OP.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


Thank you LJS.

hf





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