WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

South Korea confirmed 142 new cases today, February 22nd.

It is MUCH MORE than I expected.

And they have one more report later on.


I am waiting to see how the situation will evolve in Italy, since every country have its own epidemic regulations.

It might be possible that South Korea to have more than 1 super-spreader, or, this virus is an absolute beast, with an R0 over 6.
If Italy proceeds in same parameters as South Korea, with around 45 new cases today and around 100 new cases tomorrow...it is really bad news.

The probability of multiple super-spreaders in both South Korea and Italy is minuscule, which means that the R0 is over 6, and the infected people are NOT super-spreaders...it's just that this virus is highly, highly contagious.

South Korea confirmed 142 new cases today, February 22nd.

It is MUCH MORE than I expected.

And they have one more report later on.


I am waiting to see how the situation will evolve in Italy, since every country have its own epidemic regulations.

It might be possible that South Korea to have more than 1 super-spreader, or, this virus is an absolute beast, with an R0 over 6.
If Italy proceeds in same parameters as South Korea, with around 45 new cases today and around 100 new cases tomorrow...it is really bad news.

The probability of multiple super-spreaders in both South Korea and Italy is minuscule, which means that the R0 is over 6, and the infected people are NOT super-spreaders...it's just that this virus is highly, highly contagious.

I am not missing any questions.


It's just that I do not answer to questions that nobody can answer.I am not a seer or a prophet.


I have no idea what will happen, and I have already said that there are 2 possible scenarios.


Anyone who is asking any question on the lines of "What will happen?", please browse my posts on this thread.


I won't repeat what I have ALREADY said.

Grazie!

I've asked the OP lots of good questions and he was very kind to answer them.

Perhaps the OP is in a bad mood today?

I appreciate this thread and Nawty Bit's thread the most. Chatter is at a minimum.

People. Please read. Help yourself. If you can't help yourself to the information in this thread, you are not going to be able to help yourself in this growing emergency! Stop putting the burden on the OP to spoon feed you the information. Use your head. The writing is on the wall.... Learn to read it and to trust what you are seeing

Thoughts in same place and yes CC could suspend. They did after 9-11

Well, let me put it this way. In today's world, information is instant. We live in a society that is prone to panic more then any other time in the past.


What happened in the past 30 years or so, we watched live wars on TVs...wars that were FAR from our homes.
We watched terror attacks. And for 99% of us, those were far away.

We got into a state of mind that things are bad...but they are always far away from us, and we can have a drink and watch them unfold on our TV and computer screens.


This is a different beast. It's a pandemic, and it will hit home for most of us.

There are a number of things that I am 100% sure that WILL happen in the near future. I cannot give a time line, but I believe that March 5-6 is SHTF time.

I know that the economic impact will be devastating, which will trigger mass unemployment and skyrocketing prices...which will trigger social unrest.

I don't know WHEN it will happen, but it is going to be soon.

What I do not know, and it might accelerate the SHTF, is PANIC.
I expect panic all over the world, but it highly depends on WHERE it will happen.


For example, an uncontrolled panic in Milan, Italy, following a lock-down will absolutely be more impactful then a panic in Qom, Iran.

Europeans and Americans won't blink an eye, if there is a panic buying in Qom....but if it's Milan, a major European city, they will give a fuck.


A panic buying in Milan can trigger a panic buying in MANY European cities. It will be a chain reaction that will NOT exist if the panic buying is taking place in Qom, or some city in Thailand or Cambodia.

This is a factor that can accelerate EVERYTHING : the panic, the bank closures, the economic collapse, way earlier then expected.


The economy will collapse, 100%.
There will be worldwide panic, 100%.
The pandemic will hit all countries, 100%.
There will be lock-downs, 100%.
There will be quarantines, 100%.
There will be martial law in MANY countries, 100%.


I just don't know when exactly, where exactly, and how bad it will get.


But I do know that if lock-downs won't start in the next 72 hours, in many major cities...SHTF is going to be biblical, potentially destroying the social fabric in a way that will take DECADES to recover.

Sadly, no country will lock-down the major cities BEFORE is too late, and every day that passes, is leading to the worst-case scenario.


The time to prepare is extremely short. Between 3 and 7 days, depending on the country exposure to tourism.



We are heading to a historical change. World will drastically change, in the next 2-3 weeks, and the best case-scenario is still an absolute economic nightmare, martial laws all over the world, with a pandemic that will make the Spanish Flu look like "good days".

And this is the best-case scenario, but we are heading to the worst-case scenario, with every day that passes, planes still flying, people still gathering at festivals, sport events, etc.


My best advice is for everyone to prepare for a deep economic recession, with high unemployment and high prices...because it is the only scenario that we can prepare for.

The other scenario, it doesn't really matter how prepared you are. It will matter how skilled you are at surviving, because the world will be a very nasty place.


Think Mad Max. Or The Road.

Thank you sir...

You are doing a great service to humanity with your thread here...

I don't see the people who assume that this virus kills a certain genome group as smart people. Or at least informed people.

Yes, the ones claiming this crap have the burden of proof.

Even if we assume that a virus targeting a certain genome group can be made, the problem is that viruses mutate. And they do it many times over a short period of time.

This is a 100% FACT.

And the moment a virus mutates, his original design is lost : that virus will affect and kill anyone, regardless of the genome type.

Not to mention that in the last 150 years, the races mixed to such an extent, it is basically impossible to find an Asian-only or Caucasian-only genome type, "pure" enough to design a virus.

:concoronacase:

As of Feb. 21, COVID-19 cases were confirmed in China, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam, the United States, France, Australia, Malaysia, Nepal, Germany, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Canada, United Arab Emirates, Finland, India, the Philippines, the United Kingdom, Italy, Russia, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, Egypt and Israel.

[link to www.nbcnews.com (secure)]

I don't see the people who assume that this virus kills a certain genome group as smart people. Or at least informed people.

Yes, the ones claiming this crap have the burden of proof.

Even if we assume that a virus targeting a certain genome group can be made, the problem is that viruses mutate. And they do it many times over a short period of time.

This is a 100% FACT.

And the moment a virus mutates, his original design is lost : that virus will affect and kill anyone, regardless of the genome type.

Not to mention that in the last 150 years, the races mixed to such an extent, it is basically impossible to find an Asian-only or Caucasian-only genome type, "pure" enough to design a virus.

While i do appreciate your math, the rest is speculation. Better to err on the side of caution for sure, but your declarations of total collapse with 100% certainty need to be taken with a grain (or bushel) of salt.

china lives matter.

update: in Italy 2 deaths and 29 cases

Well, let me put it this way. In today's world, information is instant. We live in a society that is prone to panic more then any other time in the past.


What happened in the past 30 years or so, we watched live wars on TVs...wars that were FAR from our homes.
We watched terror attacks. And for 99% of us, those were far away.

We got into a state of mind that things are bad...but they are always far away from us, and we can have a drink and watch them unfold on our TV and computer screens.


This is a different beast. It's a pandemic, and it will hit home for most of us.

There are a number of things that I am 100% sure that WILL happen in the near future. I cannot give a time line, but I believe that March 5-6 is SHTF time.

I know that the economic impact will be devastating, which will trigger mass unemployment and skyrocketing prices...which will trigger social unrest.

I don't know WHEN it will happen, but it is going to be soon.

What I do not know, and it might accelerate the SHTF, is PANIC.
I expect panic all over the world, but it highly depends on WHERE it will happen.


For example, an uncontrolled panic in Milan, Italy, following a lock-down will absolutely be more impactful then a panic in Qom, Iran.

Europeans and Americans won't blink an eye, if there is a panic buying in Qom....but if it's Milan, a major European city, they will give a fuck.


A panic buying in Milan can trigger a panic buying in MANY European cities. It will be a chain reaction that will NOT exist if the panic buying is taking place in Qom, or some city in Thailand or Cambodia.

This is a factor that can accelerate EVERYTHING : the panic, the bank closures, the economic collapse, way earlier then expected.


The economy will collapse, 100%.
There will be worldwide panic, 100%.
The pandemic will hit all countries, 100%.
There will be lock-downs, 100%.
There will be quarantines, 100%.
There will be martial law in MANY countries, 100%.


I just don't know when exactly, where exactly, and how bad it will get.


But I do know that if lock-downs won't start in the next 72 hours, in many major cities...SHTF is going to be biblical, potentially destroying the social fabric in a way that will take DECADES to recover.

Sadly, no country will lock-down the major cities BEFORE is too late, and every day that passes, is leading to the worst-case scenario.


The time to prepare is extremely short. Between 3 and 7 days, depending on the country exposure to tourism.



We are heading to a historical change. World will drastically change, in the next 2-3 weeks, and the best case-scenario is still an absolute economic nightmare, martial laws all over the world, with a pandemic that will make the Spanish Flu look like "good days".

And this is the best-case scenario, but we are heading to the worst-case scenario, with every day that passes, planes still flying, people still gathering at festivals, sport events, etc.


My best advice is for everyone to prepare for a deep economic recession, with high unemployment and high prices...because it is the only scenario that we can prepare for.

The other scenario, it doesn't really matter how prepared you are. It will matter how skilled you are at surviving, because the world will be a very nasty place.


Think Mad Max. Or The Road.

Thank you sir...

You are doing a great service to humanity with your thread here...

1. Just because they work for an acronym, they may not have a "need to know". Unless they are at a top level, or working directly on this "project". They don't have the need.

2. Why shouldn't he?? If he knew it might be the last proverbial hurrah, and he will either be dead, or living in an economic meltdown, why not enjoy a car he finds special while he can?

It’s all correlated to the earwax gene.

Wet earwax = less likely to die

dry earwax = higher CHANCE of dying

So I was going to check out "The Road" that you posted...

Apparently you can no longer stream it, rent it or buy it... wonder why that is....

[link to reelgood.com (secure)]

Not available to watch free online.


Not available to stream on a subscription service.


Not available to stream on a TV everywhere service.


Not available to rent or buy.

While i do appreciate your math, the rest is speculation. Better to err on the side of caution for sure, but your declarations of total collapse with 100% certainty need to be taken with a grain (or bushel) of salt.

Dear OP, I am rather confused as to how to read your numbers..


22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000
Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288.
N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected
Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200
Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 16,120-20,160

Mathematical trend analysis is easy to understand, the problem is to know what questions to build you analysis on. OP has done a great job of graphing his analysis. He has done a great job of explaining what it means, and if you don't like the answers he gives to everyone asking extraneous questions well they are his own opinion.
Suck it up buttercup.
Thank you OP