WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Perhaps Federal reserve and other central banks instead of giving free money to the already super wealthy could let all these billions go where they actually help our socities.

Thank you. I will look.

AS EVERY ONE OF THESE OTHER COUNTRIES GIVES US THE 'REAL' NUMBERS...THE ENTIRE WORLD CAN SEE WHAT FUCKIN SHITS CHINUH 'IS'!!!.....


LYIN COCKSUCKIN EVIL CUNTZ!...

Lady Jane, did you get to see the video? I've made a couple of posts for the forum to check out.

Deplorable Recollector, keep up the good work! (not attempting to hijack your post, sorry!)


Thread: Surviving In A Post-Apocalyptic Environment | Aftermath - ANOTHER COVID 19/CORONAVIRUS PRIMER

Thread: "AFTER ARMAGEDDON - HISTORY CHANNEL" - A COVID-19 PRIMER... WHAT TO EXPECT

It does.

Sun Tzu.

Look strong when you are weak.

Buy a brand new car to show that all is good...when in fact it is bad as fuck.

Well, let me put it this way. In today's world, information is instant. We live in a society that is prone to panic more then any other time in the past.


What happened in the past 30 years or so, we watched live wars on TVs...wars that were FAR from our homes.
We watched terror attacks. And for 99% of us, those were far away.

We got into a state of mind that things are bad...but they are always far away from us, and we can have a drink and watch them unfold on our TV and computer screens.


This is a different beast. It's a pandemic, and it will hit home for most of us.

There are a number of things that I am 100% sure that WILL happen in the near future. I cannot give a time line, but I believe that March 5-6 is SHTF time.

I know that the economic impact will be devastating, which will trigger mass unemployment and skyrocketing prices...which will trigger social unrest.

I don't know WHEN it will happen, but it is going to be soon.

What I do not know, and it might accelerate the SHTF, is PANIC.
I expect panic all over the world, but it highly depends on WHERE it will happen.


For example, an uncontrolled panic in Milan, Italy, following a lock-down will absolutely be more impactful then a panic in Qom, Iran.

Europeans and Americans won't blink an eye, if there is a panic buying in Qom....but if it's Milan, a major European city, they will give a fuck.


A panic buying in Milan can trigger a panic buying in MANY European cities. It will be a chain reaction that will NOT exist if the panic buying is taking place in Qom, or some city in Thailand or Cambodia.

This is a factor that can accelerate EVERYTHING : the panic, the bank closures, the economic collapse, way earlier then expected.


The economy will collapse, 100%.
There will be worldwide panic, 100%.
The pandemic will hit all countries, 100%.
There will be lock-downs, 100%.
There will be quarantines, 100%.
There will be martial law in MANY countries, 100%.


I just don't know when exactly, where exactly, and how bad it will get.


But I do know that if lock-downs won't start in the next 72 hours, in many major cities...SHTF is going to be biblical, potentially destroying the social fabric in a way that will take DECADES to recover.

Sadly, no country will lock-down the major cities BEFORE is too late, and every day that passes, is leading to the worst-case scenario.


The time to prepare is extremely short. Between 3 and 7 days, depending on the country exposure to tourism.



We are heading to a historical change. World will drastically change, in the next 2-3 weeks, and the best case-scenario is still an absolute economic nightmare, martial laws all over the world, with a pandemic that will make the Spanish Flu look like "good days".

And this is the best-case scenario, but we are heading to the worst-case scenario, with every day that passes, planes still flying, people still gathering at festivals, sport events, etc.


My best advice is for everyone to prepare for a deep economic recession, with high unemployment and high prices...because it is the only scenario that we can prepare for.

The other scenario, it doesn't really matter how prepared you are. It will matter how skilled you are at surviving, because the world will be a very nasty place.


Think Mad Max. Or The Road.

AFTER THIS IS IT HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE?..

Meanwhile in Australia, the government has decided to ease restriction on Chinese students returning to school. How dumb is that!!!!

All eyes on Germany

VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :

February 15th, 16:30 GMT
A NEW, ADJUSTED MODEL IS NOW POSTED.
THE FORMED MODEL was deleted.

Important notes :

1.Testing kits are not reliable
2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases.
About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries.
3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets.
About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries.
4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China.
5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag).

The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days.

Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days..

[link to arxiv.org (secure)]

The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread
widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2
to 2.7. (from the study).

The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point.

World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) :
India : 1,400,000,000 - (22,29%) - infected share: 27%
Africa : 1,216,000,000 - (19.35%) - infected share: 23%
North America : 368,000,000 - 5,85% : infected share: 5%
Central America + South America : 608,000,000 - 9.68% - infected share: 9%
Europe : 747,000,000 - 11.90% - infected share: 9%
Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27%

January(infected people):
28th : 2,000-2,500

29th : 3,200-4,000

30th : 4,400-5,500

31st : 5,600-7,000

February(infected people):
1st : 6,800-8,500

2nd : 8,000-10,000

3rd : 12,800-16,000

4th : 17,600-22,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250
Serious/critical cases (18%): 202.

5th : 22,400-28,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000

6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750

7th : 32,000-40,000 (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500
Serious/critical cases (18%): 567.

8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250

9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000

10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296.

11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403.

12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000

13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754.

14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 16,000-20,000

15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000

16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128.

17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000

18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624.

19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 64,000-80,000

20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000

21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000
N.America share (5%) : 87,000-108,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800
Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840

22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288.
N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected
Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200
Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 16,120-20,160

23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000
Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000
N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected
Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600
Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected
Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500

24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000
Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861.
N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000
Europe share (9%) : 405,000-506,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800

25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000
Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000


26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000
Presenting symptoms : 563,000-704,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030



27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000
Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000
N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800
Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600

28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000
Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000


29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000
Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360.


March(infected people):
1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000
Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300

2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000
Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165.


3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000
Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000
Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000

In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range.

However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%.

The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days.

Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th.

I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases.

The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February.

The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March.

The former model was off by about 2 weeks.

The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th., when it will be adjusted again, if new information regarding the R0, contagion chance and other related information come to light.
---------------------------------------------------------

Neither.

It will be another European country. Which one, I do not know.

Yeah, it's the country I expect to have the next cluster.


However, I am betting that the German gov. will do everything it can to hide it. There is no difference between Trump, Xi, Abe and Merkel. All 4 of them are the ones who will do everything to hide the truth as long as possible...because the economic collapse, as weird as it sounds, will be felt the worst in the powerhouses that are the U.S., China, Germany and Japan.

The above 4 leaders MUST keep the panic at bay as long as possible, because panic is worse then the virus, at this point in time.

All eyes on Germany

Yeah, it's the country I expect to have the next cluster.


However, I am betting that the German gov. will do everything it can to hide it. There is no difference between Trump, Xi, Abe and Merkel. All 4 of them are the ones who will do everything to hide the truth as long as possible...because the economic collapse, as weird as it sounds, will be felt the worst in the powerhouses that are the U.S., China, Germany and Japan.

The above 4 leaders MUST keep the panic at bay as long as possible, because panic is worse then the virus, at this point in time.

Perhaps Federal reserve and other central banks instead of giving free money to the already super wealthy could let all these billions go where they actually help our socities.