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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month | |
Halfing
 User ID: 76753321  Hungary02/25/2020 12:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| DeplorableDoomsdayGuy
User ID: 75814320  United States02/25/2020 12:21 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | MAJOR UPDATE Quoting: deplorable recollector STATUS : CRITICAL. (This post will be updated daily, same as the pg.79 post) This is what I posted on the page 79 update, on February 23rd : Additional clusters (1-2) are expected to pop-up in South Korea in the next 48 hours, along with new cases from established Daegu cluster, albeit less than previous days. Next cluster will probably be in Seoul area and/or city of Cheongdo, just south of Daegu. Additional clusters (1-2) are expected to pop-up in Italy in the next 72 hours, along with new cases from Lombardy cluster. Next cluster will probably be in Venice area. Expecting clusters in the next 72 hours in other countries. Expecting a cluster in Japan in the next 48-72 hours. ALL but the Japan cluster have been confirmed, but still 24 hrs. left for Japan to have a cluster : Seoul and Busan clusters. Venice and Vo'Euganeo clusters. Middle East clusters popping up in 5 countries (besides Iran, which is the epicenter). Austria, Croatia, Switzerland and continental Spain announced their first cases. (updated feb 25th, 15:16 GMT) --------------------------------------------------------- Before I go into Iran and Middle East, a short summary for South Korea and Italy. The SK government is doing an amazing job in trying to contain the spread of the virus. Sadly, the containment failed, there are over 2 dozen hidden undetected clusters across SK, that will burst by the end of this week. Same for Italy. Multiple undetected clusters are about to burst by the end of this week. South Korea is doing 100% of what they can do to fight the virus. I do not think it will matter, because they can barely deal with 3 clusters, one in Daegu (the biggest), the smaller one in Busan and the psychiatric ward cluster which was already contained being in a secure ward.Virtually ALL patients in the ward are positive (98 out of 101). The fact that SK confirmed less cases today compared to previous 2 days means one thing only : they contained the Daegu cluster IN TIME, isolating the potential cases at homes, and the cases they are finding now are the leftovers from Daegu cluster. SK government is preparing for the lock-down of the country. Italy is trying as much as possible to contain the virus, but they already lost the battle. However, Italy is preparing intensively for the inevitable lock-down on the country. If you want to have a look at how your own country will experience, look at SK and Italy. It is coming for every country. Iran and Middle East. This is the most worrying. The cases that popped in Kuwait, Bahrein, UAE, Oman and Irak were 3 days later after Iran announced their first cases. This can only mean 2 things, both are bad : 1.Iran either hid the cases for about 3 weeks (most probable), or 2.The Iran virus is MUCH MORE contagious, much shorter incubation period and more deadly than the China virus.(highly unlikely, but possible). Either way, Iran is the Middle East epicenter. Sadly for Iran, they already lost the battle, and the country will quickly fall into a very ugly period of anarchy and massive casualties from the virus and poor health system. Same for Iraq. Iraq is lost. I don't know how long can the other countries in the Middle East will fight before losing, but one thing that I am sure of, is that Israel, while being heavily affected, have the means in place for YEARS to deal with a catastrophic scenario. By law, every family in Israel have to have food reserves at hand, for like 4 weeks. Everyone is suspending flights to everyone else. It's starting. And it will accelerate fast from today onward. Markets will react, but the crash will not happen this week. It will be bad, but Japan, EU and U.S. are pumping whatever they have left in the stock market, to keep it running this week. On Europe front, things will speed up, with clusters bursting in many countries. Germany will avoid at any cost to report cases. Same with France. But other countries will report cases, according to their testing capacity. On the U.S. front, everything will be good. People can drop dead in the streets, the U.S. will say all is good. For this week only. Next week, the U.S. cases will be so many, it will be impossible to hide. The U.S. is preparing for mass quarantines and lock-downs of multiple cities. Conclusion : time for preparing is almost over. Maybe 4-5 days left for certain countries, that will downplay the epidemic (like the U.S., Germany, France, Japan). This week, as I said before, its the last normal week on Earth. I just hope I get my new server by tomorrow so I can get tards setup for my office. Looks like I'll be working from home for a bit. Any other business owners in here? What sort of contingencies do you have in place for a prolonged quarantine? Last Edited by Pinochet'sChopperPilot on 02/25/2020 12:23 PM Come on and take a free ride. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78521250  Italy02/25/2020 12:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Any idea where Zerohedge is getting this info on Italy? Quoting: PirateMonkey Minutes ago, Italian authorities confirmed another 8 coronavirus cases, 54 of which have been confirmed on Tuesday, bringing the total to 283. More than 100,000 Italians in 10 villages are under lockdown in the 'red zone' in northern Italy, where the military has been deployed and people have been told to stay inside. Near bottom of this article: [link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)] Can't find any info on this "red zone" and these 10 villages Zerohedge is a big platform, peeps who have info are willing to give Just strange because almost every other statement in that article is sourced. I can find multiple sources for, "Italian authorities confirmed another 8 coronavirus cases, 54 of which have been confirmed on Tuesday, bringing the total to 283" But nothing for lockdown of 100K in 'red zone' the red zone is south of Milan and includes 10 cities |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 75232346 United States02/25/2020 12:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| SWOOPSTER
User ID: 76699386 United States02/25/2020 12:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | MAJOR UPDATE Quoting: deplorable recollector STATUS : CRITICAL. (This post will be updated daily, same as the pg.79 post) This is what I posted on the page 79 update, on February 23rd : Additional clusters (1-2) are expected to pop-up in South Korea in the next 48 hours, along with new cases from established Daegu cluster, albeit less than previous days. Next cluster will probably be in Seoul area and/or city of Cheongdo, just south of Daegu. Additional clusters (1-2) are expected to pop-up in Italy in the next 72 hours, along with new cases from Lombardy cluster. Next cluster will probably be in Venice area. Expecting clusters in the next 72 hours in other countries. Expecting a cluster in Japan in the next 48-72 hours. ALL but the Japan cluster have been confirmed, but still 24 hrs. left for Japan to have a cluster : Seoul and Busan clusters. Venice and Vo'Euganeo clusters. Middle East clusters popping up in 5 countries (besides Iran, which is the epicenter). Austria, Croatia, Switzerland and continental Spain announced their first cases. (updated feb 25th, 15:16 GMT) --------------------------------------------------------- Before I go into Iran and Middle East, a short summary for South Korea and Italy. The SK government is doing an amazing job in trying to contain the spread of the virus. Sadly, the containment failed, there are over 2 dozen hidden undetected clusters across SK, that will burst by the end of this week. Same for Italy. Multiple undetected clusters are about to burst by the end of this week. South Korea is doing 100% of what they can do to fight the virus. I do not think it will matter, because they can barely deal with 3 clusters, one in Daegu (the biggest), the smaller one in Busan and the psychiatric ward cluster which was already contained being in a secure ward.Virtually ALL patients in the ward are positive (98 out of 101). The fact that SK confirmed less cases today compared to previous 2 days means one thing only : they contained the Daegu cluster IN TIME, isolating the potential cases at homes, and the cases they are finding now are the leftovers from Daegu cluster. SK government is preparing for the lock-down of the country. Italy is trying as much as possible to contain the virus, but they already lost the battle. However, Italy is preparing intensively for the inevitable lock-down on the country. If you want to have a look at how your own country will experience, look at SK and Italy. It is coming for every country. Iran and Middle East. This is the most worrying. The cases that popped in Kuwait, Bahrein, UAE, Oman and Irak were 3 days later after Iran announced their first cases. This can only mean 2 things, both are bad : 1.Iran either hid the cases for about 3 weeks (most probable), or 2.The Iran virus is MUCH MORE contagious, much shorter incubation period and more deadly than the China virus.(highly unlikely, but possible). Either way, Iran is the Middle East epicenter. Sadly for Iran, they already lost the battle, and the country will quickly fall into a very ugly period of anarchy and massive casualties from the virus and poor health system. Same for Iraq. Iraq is lost. I don't know how long can the other countries in the Middle East will fight before losing, but one thing that I am sure of, is that Israel, while being heavily affected, have the means in place for YEARS to deal with a catastrophic scenario. By law, every family in Israel have to have food reserves at hand, for like 4 weeks. Everyone is suspending flights to everyone else. It's starting. And it will accelerate fast from today onward. Markets will react, but the crash will not happen this week. It will be bad, but Japan, EU and U.S. are pumping whatever they have left in the stock market, to keep it running this week. On Europe front, things will speed up, with clusters bursting in many countries. Germany will avoid at any cost to report cases. Same with France. But other countries will report cases, according to their testing capacity. On the U.S. front, everything will be good. People can drop dead in the streets, the U.S. will say all is good. For this week only. Next week, the U.S. cases will be so many, it will be impossible to hide. The U.S. is preparing for mass quarantines and lock-downs of multiple cities. Conclusion : time for preparing is almost over. Maybe 4-5 days left for certain countries, that will downplay the epidemic (like the U.S., Germany, France, Japan). This week, as I said before, its the last normal week on Earth. I just hope I get my new server by tomorrow so I can get tards setup for my office. Looks like I'll be working from home for a bit. Any other business owners in here? What sort of contingencies do you have in place for a prolonged quarantine? Remote admin is your friend! ~S~ |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76666990  Canada02/25/2020 12:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | However what I found disheartening was the amount of questions they asked me at the reception area. Are you here for flu symptoms. How do you feel. Have you noticed any of your friends feeling ill. Have you traveled lately. What about your coworkers. They asked me about a dozen questions. Never ever has this happened before. I was given the go ahead to enter the hospital and just as I was leaving I looked at the lady and said,” this is because of the virus. She quietly said yes. OP....damn I hope you’re wrong. Thank you for helping me understand this mess. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78487383 United States02/25/2020 12:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | To answer about modeling clusters. Quoting: deplorable recollector It is IMPOSSIBLE. Nobody can do it. It is safe to assume that when a case is confirmed, there is a cluster close to maturity, about to blow up. Add 4-5 more hidden clusters for each case. Impossible to predict the time when those hidden clusters will pop up and when. Hence, impossible to contain it. The LONG incubation period, paired with roughly 60% of the cases being asymptomatic AND with 80% of the rest being MILD, makes it impossible to detect patient zero for each cluster and contain this pandemic. I got the sneezies.  |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78487383 United States02/25/2020 12:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| miabelieves
User ID: 77874365 United States02/25/2020 12:49 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to twitter.com (secure)] Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride |
| Dani12345
User ID: 78522508  Chile02/25/2020 12:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Deplorable Collector. In Chile there are testing kits and 260 Quarantine Cases. Should be added to the Model as is first known cases in Southamerica. Since today was released to public media. If Chile becomes Pandemic Copper Supply will Crash. Chile is Biggest Copper and Lythium exporter. The less supply will skyrocket goods prices and inflation worldwide. Do not underestimate the effects Chile will have to the worldwide Economy if Pandemic goes out of control in this country. The effect in copper price can break all finantial capitalist model affecting the US. Chilean external debt is very close to 200Bi Historically for past 30 years when economy of other countryes break that debt level, US react trying to take over those governments, wars and economycal crises tend to happen. Example Turkey India UAE and Argentina. In certain way Coronavirus spread in Chile will be good for Chilean economy. But will not be for world Capitalist Economyes. Copper can sky rocket desacelerating the increase of us dollar against the Chilean Peso wich should skyrocket at this moment while breaking rhe 200Bi. Normally speaking Copper should Crash with China out of the market and Usd dollar to oeso skyricket 600-1000% above current prices next 10 years. But if Conoravirus spreads in Chile then Copper will skyrocket in prices leveraging its economy against the Us Dollar. Consequently Chile will be in a economic bubble untill Copper stsbilize again its demand to China. There after a Big Economic Crash expected in Chile. FMI & WHO probably allready know this and are playing Chess on Chile while Soread starts to happen. This why you should look on Chile as an important factor to consider its current spread. 260 people declared in quarsntine only today. Yesterday 0. VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE : Quoting: deplorable recollector February 15th, 16:30 GMT A NEW, ADJUSTED MODEL IS NOW POSTED. THE FORMED MODEL was deleted. Important notes : 1.Testing kits are not reliable 2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases. About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries. 3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets. About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries. 4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China. 5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag). The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days. Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days.. [link to arxiv.org (secure)] The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. (from the study). The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point. World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) : India : 1,400,000,000 - (22,29%) - infected share: 27% Africa : 1,216,000,000 - (19.35%) - infected share: 23% North America : 368,000,000 - 5,85% : infected share: 5% Central America + South America : 608,000,000 - 9.68% - infected share: 9% Europe : 747,000,000 - 11.90% - infected share: 9% Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27% January(infected people): 28th : 2,000-2,500 29th : 3,200-4,000 30th : 4,400-5,500 31st : 5,600-7,000 February(infected people): 1st : 6,800-8,500 2nd : 8,000-10,000 3rd : 12,800-16,000 4th : 17,600-22,000 Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250 Serious/critical cases (18%): 202. 5th : 22,400-28,000 Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000 6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750 7th : 32,000-40,000 (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500 Serious/critical cases (18%): 567. 8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250 9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000 10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296. 11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day. Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403. 12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000 13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754. 14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 16,000-20,000 15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000 16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128. 17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000 18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day. Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624. 19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 64,000-80,000 20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000 21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000 N.America share (5%) : 87,000-108,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800 Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840 22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288. N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200 Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 16,120-20,160 23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000(2,052 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000 N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600 Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500 24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000(2,429 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day. Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861. N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000 Europe share (9%) : 405,000-506,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800 25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000 Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000 26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000 Presenting symptoms : 563,000-704,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030 27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000 Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000 N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800 Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600 28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000 Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000 29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000 Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360. March(infected people): 1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000 Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000 N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000 Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300 2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000 Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day. Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165. 3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000 Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000 N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000 Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000 In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range. However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%. The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days. Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th. I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases. The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February. The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March. The former model was off by about 2 weeks. The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th., when it will be adjusted again, if new information regarding the R0, contagion chance and other related information come to light. --------------------------------------------------------- Dani12345 |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78382038 United States02/25/2020 12:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72997071 READ THE DAMN THREAD!!! Losers like you keep asking the same stupid questions about mortality rates and OP has REPEATEDLY stated his model is designed to project INFECTION RATES ONLY. He has REPEATEDLY stated his model does NOT address mortality rates. READ BEFORE YOU POST!!! . Infection rates mean jack shit to us. Can we get it? Sure. Just like any common cold. But will it kill us is what we care about? Infection rate is what it MATTERS with this virus. Rest is poetry. Why? Because 18% of the cases need ICU. No ICU, 18% dead. The more are infected, the MORE are those that need ICU. That is step one : 18% DEAD because no ICU beds (which means ventilators, computers AND MEDICS. Step 2 : due to lack of ICU beds...EVERYONE that needs ICU beds will die : car accidents, heart failures, kidney patients, etc. etc. Add 10-12% more percent. So, in just 2 fucking steps, the mortality rate is 30% JUST BECAUSE there are no fucking beds and medics available. Step 3 : China is offline. 80% of pharmaceuticals and/or ingredients are produced in China. From diabetics to recovering patients, ALL NEED medication to stay fucking alive. Add 15% more. And I am not even TALKING ABOUT THE FUCKING VIRUS DEATH RATE, just SECONDARY DEATHS ! Now you understand WHY the fucking infection rate matters and the rest is fucking poetry? Perhaps Federal reserve and other central banks instead of giving free money to the already super wealthy could let all these billions go where they actually help our socities.  |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77315281 United States02/25/2020 12:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | MAJOR UPDATE Quoting: deplorable recollector STATUS : CRITICAL. (This post will be updated daily, same as the pg.79 post) This is what I posted on the page 79 update, on February 23rd : Additional clusters (1-2) are expected to pop-up in South Korea in the next 48 hours, along with new cases from established Daegu cluster, albeit less than previous days. Next cluster will probably be in Seoul area and/or city of Cheongdo, just south of Daegu. Additional clusters (1-2) are expected to pop-up in Italy in the next 72 hours, along with new cases from Lombardy cluster. Next cluster will probably be in Venice area. Expecting clusters in the next 72 hours in other countries. Expecting a cluster in Japan in the next 48-72 hours. ALL but the Japan cluster have been confirmed, but still 24 hrs. left for Japan to have a cluster : Seoul and Busan clusters. Venice and Vo'Euganeo clusters. Middle East clusters popping up in 5 countries (besides Iran, which is the epicenter). Austria, Croatia, Switzerland and continental Spain announced their first cases. (updated feb 25th, 15:16 GMT) --------------------------------------------------------- Before I go into Iran and Middle East, a short summary for South Korea and Italy. The SK government is doing an amazing job in trying to contain the spread of the virus. Sadly, the containment failed, there are over 2 dozen hidden undetected clusters across SK, that will burst by the end of this week. Same for Italy. Multiple undetected clusters are about to burst by the end of this week. South Korea is doing 100% of what they can do to fight the virus. I do not think it will matter, because they can barely deal with 3 clusters, one in Daegu (the biggest), the smaller one in Busan and the psychiatric ward cluster which was already contained being in a secure ward.Virtually ALL patients in the ward are positive (98 out of 101). The fact that SK confirmed less cases today compared to previous 2 days means one thing only : they contained the Daegu cluster IN TIME, isolating the potential cases at homes, and the cases they are finding now are the leftovers from Daegu cluster. SK government is preparing for the lock-down of the country. Italy is trying as much as possible to contain the virus, but they already lost the battle. However, Italy is preparing intensively for the inevitable lock-down on the country. If you want to have a look at how your own country will experience, look at SK and Italy. It is coming for every country. Iran and Middle East. This is the most worrying. The cases that popped in Kuwait, Bahrein, UAE, Oman and Irak were 3 days later after Iran announced their first cases. This can only mean 2 things, both are bad : 1.Iran either hid the cases for about 3 weeks (most probable), or 2.The Iran virus is MUCH MORE contagious, much shorter incubation period and more deadly than the China virus.(highly unlikely, but possible). Either way, Iran is the Middle East epicenter. Sadly for Iran, they already lost the battle, and the country will quickly fall into a very ugly period of anarchy and massive casualties from the virus and poor health system. Same for Iraq. Iraq is lost. I don't know how long can the other countries in the Middle East will fight before losing, but one thing that I am sure of, is that Israel, while being heavily affected, have the means in place for YEARS to deal with a catastrophic scenario. By law, every family in Israel have to have food reserves at hand, for like 4 weeks. Everyone is suspending flights to everyone else. It's starting. And it will accelerate fast from today onward. Markets will react, but the crash will not happen this week. It will be bad, but Japan, EU and U.S. are pumping whatever they have left in the stock market, to keep it running this week. On Europe front, things will speed up, with clusters bursting in many countries. Germany will avoid at any cost to report cases. Same with France. But other countries will report cases, according to their testing capacity. On the U.S. front, everything will be good. People can drop dead in the streets, the U.S. will say all is good. For this week only. Next week, the U.S. cases will be so many, it will be impossible to hide. The U.S. is preparing for mass quarantines and lock-downs of multiple cities. Conclusion : time for preparing is almost over. Maybe 4-5 days left for certain countries, that will downplay the epidemic (like the U.S., Germany, France, Japan). This week, as I said before, its the last normal week on Earth. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78381292 United States02/25/2020 01:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 76933812 Chile02/25/2020 01:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Deplorable Collector. In Chile there are testing kits and 260 Quarantine Cases. Should be added to the Model as is first known cases in Southamerica. Since today was released to public media. If Chile becomes Pandemic Copper Supply will Crash. Chile is Biggest Copper and Lythium exporter. The less supply will skyrocket goods prices and inflation worldwide. Do not underestimate the effects Chile will have to the worldwide Economy if Pandemic goes out of control in this country. The effect in copper price can break all finantial capitalist model affecting the US. Chilean external debt is very close to 200Bi Historically for past 30 years when economy of other countryes break that debt level, US react trying to take over those governments, wars and economycal crises tend to happen. Example Turkey India UAE and Argentina. In certain way Coronavirus spread in Chile will be good for Chilean economy. But will not be for world Capitalist Economyes. Copper can sky rocket desacelerating the increase of us dollar against the Chilean Peso wich should skyrocket at this moment while breaking rhe 200Bi. Normally speaking Copper should Crash with China out of the market and Usd dollar to oeso skyricket 600-1000% above current prices next 10 years. But if Conoravirus spreads in Chile then Copper will skyrocket in prices leveraging its economy against the Us Dollar. Consequently Chile will be in a economic bubble untill Copper stsbilize again its demand to China. There after a Big Economic Crash expected in Chile. FMI & WHO probably allready know this and are playing Chess on Chile while Soread starts to happen. Quoting: Dani12345 This why you should look on Chile as an important factor to consider its current spread. 260 people declared in quarsntine only today. Yesterday 0. VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE : Quoting: deplorable recollector February 15th, 16:30 GMT A NEW, ADJUSTED MODEL IS NOW POSTED. THE FORMED MODEL was deleted. Important notes : 1.Testing kits are not reliable 2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases. About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries. 3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets. About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries. 4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China. 5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag). The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days. Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days.. [link to arxiv.org (secure)] The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. (from the study). The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point. World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) : India : 1,400,000,000 - (22,29%) - infected share: 27% Africa : 1,216,000,000 - (19.35%) - infected share: 23% North America : 368,000,000 - 5,85% : infected share: 5% Central America + South America : 608,000,000 - 9.68% - infected share: 9% Europe : 747,000,000 - 11.90% - infected share: 9% Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27% January(infected people): 28th : 2,000-2,500 29th : 3,200-4,000 30th : 4,400-5,500 31st : 5,600-7,000 February(infected people): 1st : 6,800-8,500 2nd : 8,000-10,000 3rd : 12,800-16,000 4th : 17,600-22,000 Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250 Serious/critical cases (18%): 202. 5th : 22,400-28,000 Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000 6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750 7th : 32,000-40,000 (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500 Serious/critical cases (18%): 567. 8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250 9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000 10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296. 11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day. Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403. 12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000 13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754. 14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 16,000-20,000 15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000 16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128. 17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000 18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day. Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624. 19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 64,000-80,000 20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000 21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000 N.America share (5%) : 87,000-108,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800 Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840 22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288. N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200 Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 16,120-20,160 23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000(2,052 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000 N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600 Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500 24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000(2,429 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess) Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day. Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861. N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000 Europe share (9%) : 405,000-506,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800 25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000 Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000 26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000 Presenting symptoms : 563,000-704,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030 27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000 Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000 N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800 Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600 28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000 Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000 29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000 Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000 Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360. March(infected people): 1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000 Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000 N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000 Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300 2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000 Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day. Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165. 3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000 Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000 N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000 Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000 In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range. However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%. The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days. Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th. I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases. The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February. The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March. The former model was off by about 2 weeks. The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th., when it will be adjusted again, if new information regarding the R0, contagion chance and other related information come to light. --------------------------------------------------------- I think you are overestimating our importance, our Main copper buyer is China, by far, both for Copper and Lithium, with China out of the game our copper becomes relatively abundant. Anyway, with markets soon to crash, copper production dropping To 0 will be the less of our worries. All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78238428  Brazil02/25/2020 01:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508  United Kingdom02/25/2020 01:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The exceptions are South Korea and Italy, but only for trying to see how the situation develops there, to see if patterns hold. South Korea is extremely important for SE Asia and Japan.Italy for the entire Europe.Traveling, tourism, military, economy, business, etc. South Korea and Italy are also very developed, and watching those countries reacting to the epidemic can be projected onto many other countries. Chile is...well, how to I put it...not important for my model. Brazil or Argentina, yes. But not Chile. Not enough exposure to traveling in S.America, compared to Brazil or Argentina. Same for tourism, or business travel. Last Edited by Recollector on 02/25/2020 01:21 PM |
| Georgia Geoprepper
User ID: 78147437 United States02/25/2020 01:26 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 75232346 United States02/25/2020 01:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| mr. jingles
User ID: 73643500 United States02/25/2020 01:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom02/25/2020 01:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 31126728 United States02/25/2020 01:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I can't add a specific country to the model. Quoting: deplorable recollector The exceptions are South Korea and Italy, but only for trying to see how the situation develops there, to see if patterns hold. South Korea is extremely important for SE Asia and Japan.Italy for the entire Europe.Traveling, tourism, military, economy, business, etc. South Korea and Italy are also very developed, and watching those countries reacting to the epidemic can be projected onto many other countries. Chile is...well, how to I put it...not important for my model. Brazil or Argentina, yes. But not Chile. Not enough exposure to traveling in S.America, compared to Brazil or Argentina. Same for tourism, or business travel. Brazil ha Carnival the week I think. And New Orleans has Mardi Gras. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78524397  Israel02/25/2020 01:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I don't know how long can the other countries in the Middle East will fight before losing, but one thing that I am sure of, is that Israel, while being heavily affected, have the means in place for YEARS to deal with a catastrophic scenario. Quoting: deplorable recollector By law, every family in Israel have to have food reserves at hand, for like 4 weeks. No we don't. I did buy half a box of tuna cans today, but only because of GLP |
| Edmontonian
User ID: 73976824 Canada02/25/2020 01:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | China is done and all trade with them is done. Soon anything China made will not be found anywhere. 5 days left to prep at least. Maybe 7-12 but unlikely. Watch as more cities and countries fall this week. Whether this virus kills or not is a moot point as government trading stopping everywhere will kill a lot all on it's own. Without preps you are left to government handouts and we all know that rationing will get lower and lower as stores run out fast. Just imagine communism hitting everyone all at once. Those who never experienced it will be hit hardest...ie: western countries. Those who are on medicals to survive will die. So get your preps of those if you can now. Buy pet supplies now. My cat has 2-3 months of his own supplies....after that hes gonna have to fend for himself. It's not neccisarily the virus that will kill you.....its the response to the virus that will and I think they have planned this long ago. At this point it doesn't matter at all if the virus is a nothing burger.....the government runs on FEAR and that's what's gonna get you. They lock down your city and you are now f'd with what you have. Wuhan lock down at least 2-3 months.....that's at minimum how long you need to be prepped for. With no help. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78238428 Brazil02/25/2020 01:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I can't add a specific country to the model. Quoting: deplorable recollector The exceptions are South Korea and Italy, but only for trying to see how the situation develops there, to see if patterns hold. South Korea is extremely important for SE Asia and Japan.Italy for the entire Europe.Traveling, tourism, military, economy, business, etc. South Korea and Italy are also very developed, and watching those countries reacting to the epidemic can be projected onto many other countries. Chile is...well, how to I put it...not important for my model. Brazil or Argentina, yes. But not Chile. Not enough exposure to traveling in S.America, compared to Brazil or Argentina. Same for tourism, or business travel. Brazil ha Carnival the week I think. And New Orleans has Mardi Gras. Yes, it's carnival here. No cases so far, the brazilians removed from Wuhan (40 people) have already fulfilled the quarantine and were released, none showed symptoms. High temperatures around here (30C - 86F). |
| Serenity_Seeker
User ID: 22589844 United States02/25/2020 02:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Audio from Today's presser. [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] So surreal. . |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78015507 United States02/25/2020 02:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to vexmansthoughts.wordpress.com (secure)] Ask the CDC or WHO to forward a REFERENCED photo of the "H1N1 virus" or the "HIV virus" or even the "measles virus" (surely they've seen the measles virus before, right??). Sorry, none exist and if anyone supplies one they cannot offer a source because NOT A SINGLE VIRUS IN EXISTENCE HAS EVER BEEN ISOLATED INCLUDING THE NEW CORONA VIRUS Let that simple fact sink in. Every photo of a virus in a textbook or on an "authoritative website" is 100% fictional yet there (((they))) are inserting them anyway TO BETTER SELL YOU THEIR UNDERLYING AGENDAS. VIRUSES ARE THE ULTIMATE J-W PSYOP TO GENERATE FEAR AND FACILITATING DELIBERATE POISONING OF YOUR CHILDREN VIA VAXXRAPING |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78238428 Brazil02/25/2020 02:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Famous virologist Stefan Lanka has had the German courts agree with his claim that the Measles virus DOES NOT EXIST. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78015507 [link to vexmansthoughts.wordpress.com (secure)] Ask the CDC or WHO to forward a REFERENCED photo of the "H1N1 virus" or the "HIV virus" or even the "measles virus" (surely they've seen the measles virus before, right??). Sorry, none exist and if anyone supplies one they cannot offer a source because NOT A SINGLE VIRUS IN EXISTENCE HAS EVER BEEN ISOLATED INCLUDING THE NEW CORONA VIRUS Let that simple fact sink in. Every photo of a virus in a textbook or on an "authoritative website" is 100% fictional yet there (((they))) are inserting them anyway TO BETTER SELL YOU THEIR UNDERLYING AGENDAS. VIRUSES ARE THE ULTIMATE J-W PSYOP TO GENERATE FEAR AND FACILITATING DELIBERATE POISONING OF YOUR CHILDREN VIA VAXXRAPING You can't go that far, I had measles and chicken pox as a child. Viruses exist, if not, what is measles, chicken pox, mumps or even the common flu? |
| freddy colins
User ID: 76809044 United States02/25/2020 02:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78524533  Algeria02/25/2020 02:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 31126728 United States02/25/2020 02:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I can't add a specific country to the model. Quoting: deplorable recollector The exceptions are South Korea and Italy, but only for trying to see how the situation develops there, to see if patterns hold. South Korea is extremely important for SE Asia and Japan.Italy for the entire Europe.Traveling, tourism, military, economy, business, etc. South Korea and Italy are also very developed, and watching those countries reacting to the epidemic can be projected onto many other countries. Chile is...well, how to I put it...not important for my model. Brazil or Argentina, yes. But not Chile. Not enough exposure to traveling in S.America, compared to Brazil or Argentina. Same for tourism, or business travel. Brazil ha Carnival the week I think. And New Orleans has Mardi Gras. Yes, it's carnival here. No cases so far, the brazilians removed from Wuhan (40 people) have already fulfilled the quarantine and were released, none showed symptoms. High temperatures around here (30C - 86F). All those asymptomatic people from all over the world, mingling then traveling back to their home countries. |
