WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky

For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.

true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.

From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice by to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of million more will self-isolate in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST BE STOP BY FEB. 5TH.

If the above measures are not taking places, the pandemic will be catastrophic.

This is assuming a highly doubtful starting point:

January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.)

There is a lot of increasingly validated information out there demonstrating that there are 45,000 to as many as 140,000 infected people as of today. All due to intentional under-reporting or due to inability to diagnose actual cases (lack of supplies, staff, IT...).

Considering this, your scenario could be way too conservative.

Britain leaves the EU on 31st January, so should be a walk in the park for Boris to isolate the UK as the whole country is already geared for it.

I think you missed the part where my model is not for China.

The information you are talking about is for China.

I DID miss that, thanks. What's the math INSIDE China?

Thanks, OP! My husband came up with similar numbers.

Outstanding work op
This some how has to get out to the public

you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky

more like 9.5

I'll green pin it. Thanks OP.

I tried. Too many right now.