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REPORT COPYRIGHT VIOLATION IN REPLY
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Message Subject
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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
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Poster Handle
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Anonymous Coward |
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Post Content
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This is assuming a highly doubtful starting point:
January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.)
There is a lot of increasingly validated information out there demonstrating that there are 45,000 to as many as 140,000 infected people as of today. All due to intentional under-reporting or due to inability to diagnose actual cases (lack of supplies, staff, IT...).
Considering this, your scenario could be way too conservative.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278 I think you missed the part where my model is not for China. The information you are talking about is for China. I DID miss that, thanks. What's the math INSIDE China? 690,000 infected. The Chinese should report 8,099 confirmed cases today, give it a 1-2% error. So, a jump from 4,500 yesterday to 8,100 today. Thanks; my first point is still important as the Chinese are likely significantly under-reporting actual infections (hence your baseline may be way too low). We shall see.
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