"But if the confirmed cases represent only a fraction of the total cases — and they likely do — that could really change the math. Until we have a better handle on the total number of cases it’s premature to draw conclusions."

"There are formulas that give you an idea of how many infections probably occurred in China before a case was exported."

"As of Sunday, when the number of exported cases was approaching 60, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London estimated there were likely already 100,000 cases in China. But that was two days ago."

"Ferguson told STAT it’s getting hard to run that calculation, “given the exit screening and then quarantine of Wuhan,” the central Chinese city where the outbreak is believed to have started."

[link to www.statnews.com (secure)]