I don't think you can develop any predictions based off the phony numbers that the Chinese authorities have given because the numbers are obviously very low. No one quarantines a city of a 11 million people for 26 deaths. There are more deaths from the flu and cities are not quarantined for that. The Chinese authorities obviously know what this virus is and where it comes from and roughly how many people are being infected and dying. Obviously there will be people who are not counted among the dead and infected because they don't go to a hospital with it and instead stay home or they don't know they have it yet.
Quoting: 2hot2handle My model started with 4 patterns.
3 of them, including the one based on Chinese official figure failed to apply.
In other words, the current model is left with a single pattern that applied every day since January 17th...and it is NOT the one based on the Chinese numbers.
That pattern and the weaponized pattern failed on January 24th, while the Spanish Flu pattern failed first, on January 21st.
The remaining pattern still holds, and it is based on an adjusted R0 = 2.6 (with 0.7 and 0.8 variable index for infection chance, depending on the pandemic stage, which is incipient atm outside China), for countries outside China.
Any attempt to making a model starts with many variables, until only one is left standing.
