OP,
As of right now, do you think a 10% kill rate is a safe calculation for a general projection?
If so, that would mean that aside from China, there could be around 100,000 dead or dying.
Quoting: HE-B-GB My model is only for infection rates. The death rate is irrelevant, and IMPOSSIBLE to calculate at this moment, because :
-China's official numbers are bogus
-A significant percentage of those that died in the last 72 hours outside China from pneumonia and flu were very likely infected with the NovelCoronavirus.
-The percentage of those currently infected outside China that could develop severe/critcal symptoms cannot be evaluated, because the pandemic is still in the incipient stage, outside China.
For those reason, the death rate cannot be determined. And it won't be determined for a good while...and when it will be, again, it won't matter.
We are 3 weeks away from a major, if not total collapse of the society, bar a fucking miracle.
