WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Unless you can just grow a new leg for free.

THE CASE WHERE IT WAS DISCOVERED THAT ASYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE WERE SPREADING THE VIRUS TURNED OUT TO BE INCORRECT. THE CASE IN QUESTION WAS A LADY WHO FLEW TO GERMANY FOR MEETING AND 'APPEARED' TO OTHERS TO BE IN GOOD HEALTH. AFTER SHE HAD SPREAD THE VIRUS TO OTHERS AND RETURNED HOME IT TOOK TIME FOR DRS TO CONTACT HER. IN THE INTERIM THE PAPER WAS PUBLISHED RE ASYMPTOMATIC SPREADING. WHEN SHE WAS CONTACTED SHE WAS ABLE TO CONFIRM THAT WHILE ON HER TRIP SHE DID HAVE SYMPTOMS.

I HAVEN'T HEARD OF ANY OTHER CASES WHERE ADYMPTOMATIC SPREADING HAS OCCURED.

I will leave this here, Just a reminder of what some allegedly powerful people wish for the world, and to keep that in mind at all times when thinking about anything that can be perceived as a global threat, specially if it’s origin is as puzzling as in the case of the nCov2019.

Maybe you should spend more time on researching.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong authorities, in the light of the cases in the last 48 hrs, came back with same results :

AT LEAST half of the asymptomatic cases are infectious.

Did you read the paper “ace”? Did you see how two Germans that never had any direct contact with the Chinese woman got infected because they had contact with the German that had contact with the Chinese woman?

If you can’t read and understand, please don’t post misleading disinfo.

YES PLEASE!!!!

OP, your info is invaluable. Please don’t let the trolls discourage you. Those of us with an IQ higher than a beer can of Halcyon Daze malt liquor desperately WANT your insights.

.

Won't post again..waste of time

It's not about the trolls. It's about the model.

I expect the number of confirmed cases to rise significantly next week, outside China.

If they do not, I will rework the model, and the result will probably be that this virus is just not that bad outside China.

And if it's not that bad, I no longer care about numbers...we dodged the bullet.


The entire reason for my model is to see IF we're fucked or not.

From the beginning I said that February 15th-16th are CRITICAL DATES.

Basically, and I will put this as simple as I can, if by February 16th, the number of OFFICIALLY confirmed cases outside China is going to be around 800...it's BAD NEWS.


My personal expectation is that the number of cases outside China, on February 16th will be close to 1,000.

If we will have 800-1,000 or more confirmed cases at the end of February 16th, outside China, there is no point to update the model...it's SHTF at the beginning of March.

Numbers won't change the outcome.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/09/2020 03:09 PM

FEBRUARY 9, 2020 ASSESSEMENT AND POTENTIAL NON DOOM OUTCOME – The next 10-14 days should tell with decent certainly how this virus will play out and the potential outcome. I stand by my previous statement that everyone’s personal outcome will be largely determined by where you live. India, Africa and third world countries will be hit the hardest because of low level healthcare and other social deficiencies (education, hygiene, communications, support, etc.) Sorry truth sometime is hard to swallow. USA, EU and other select countries on the opposite end of India and Africa will survive much better. Additionally USA only has two neighbors, Canada and Mexico. I have always believed USA’s geographic location is very advantageous for many reasons. USA is hard to invade without easy detection and also not to easy to get to. This leads to another aspect of this CoV virus situation. Airline traffic is still coming into the USA. But what type of individual can afford to make the trip? These few statements are just a glimpse of why I am optimistic about the USA being able to “minimize the hit” this virus will deliver to all countries on earth. Again, the next 10-14 days will tell but if the infected numbers do not increase with least the same rate as what Wuhan reported (should be much higher than what Wuhan has reported) then we certainly will have some answers.

One potential outcome might be – Only Chinese nationals that received certain vaccines will potentially die even with hospital care but do transmit the virus. All others who become infected with access to good home healthcare will survive a very bad flu. Regardless if pneumonia sets in hospital care is needed to recover. The above possible scenario is for USA and other developed counties too only. I fear slums have little or no chance, and little just left the room.

Finally, here in the USA I am carefully watching how Trump handles these next 10-14 days. He is very “market” focused but I believe he eventually will put the people before the markets. But when? He will not run and hide like others and is not afraid to make a wrong decision, as he knows how to recover from a wrong decision. So if he begins to make CoV announcements (tweets) that adversely affect the markets that is a clear indication this is most serious and other more severe actions will be forthcoming. He has already stated “the USA will come out good from this” but it may have been a statement to protect markets only as Xi lied to him and he has yet to get solid intel. But he will eventually get excellent intel and certainly in the next 10-14 days.

Thank you for all that you do. I'm keeping a close eye on the February 15-16 numbers.

Thanks for the great thread!

That said, I've read your entire thread and maybe I'm missing something.

Why is 800-1,000 cases OUTSIDE of China so significant? That's just a drop of water in an ocean compared to the billions of people who live OUTSIDE of China.

Thanks for your time, patience, and consideration.

The vast majority of confirmed cases are serious enough to go to a hospital.

Those 800 confirmed cases are outside Africa, India, S&C.America, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other countries (who do not have testing kits or don't report cases), which are about 4.2 billion people.

There are 6.3 billion people outside China.

So, 800 confirmed cases for about 2.1 billion people, which is about 1/3rd of the cases outside China.

Hence, the real number of serious cases is actually 2,400, but only 800 are tested and confirmed usually 24-36 hrs. after testing.

Now, serious cases are roughly 18% of the total SYMPTOMATIC cases.

Which means that there are around 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases outside China, with 82% of them being mild cases and confused with a light flu, and will not go to a hospital, hence, they are undetected and untested and, ofc, not confirmed...but they ARE 13,300 REAL people.

Now, in order to have 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases, who are out of incubation phase which is usually 14 days, according to latest data, applying a 2.2 denominator (the R0) for each "hop", and a "hop" is maximum 24 hrs. (it is usually less) it means that there are 2.2 x 2.2 (13 times in row) = 11,165 infected but ASYMPTOMATIC people for 1 of the each 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases.

Which is 11,165 x 13,300, roughly 148,500,000 infected people in total (asymptomatic+mild cases+serious cases) OUTSIDE CHINA.

Yes, 800 is a drop in an ocean...the problem is that those 800 confirmed cases cannot exist if there aren't 148,5 MILLION infected behind them.


I hope I made myself understood.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/09/2020 06:18 PM

don't forget that spring break is coming up, and a lot of students will be traveling

Bump for layer

Thank you OP for doing an amazing job!

Question: I am in semi-rural USA, when do i self-quarantine?

Ask the CDC.

I meant when do i go into my bunker?




Last Edited by A Regular Guy on 02/09/2020 06:38 PM

I already posted this on the main Wuhan flu page but it bears noting.

The interesting part is even best case scenario too much money has been lost right now.
If by majic all would be healed the wave of bankruptcies in China is still going to destroy the economy. They just wasted their new years spending binge and are locking down for the month. Supply chain fail no matter what now.
I keep seeing hopeful stories of we open Monday last week too. Followed by later in the day stories of why quarantines extend another week then another week.
If your local grocer doesn't open and get paid for a month he shuts down. If your local plumber sits and watches tv instead of fixing toilets he loses his truck.
If your local union worker sits on his can and doesn't work, well he may not lose his job but unless he works for the government he doesn't get paid and then his bills default.
This is a cascading failure already. Financially we are hooped no matter what now.
go to the store and buy what ever cheap crap you usually buy that is Chinese made. It won't be there next month.
I finally understand what I was told back in November, if you are looking at something right now buy it, if it costs 5 bucks now it will be 50 or a 100 later.
I had no idea what he meant, and did not really listen, but I get it now.

Dear Sir:

I fully understand now!

The math makes this whole mess frightening!

I suppose you are using exponential math?

For example a MAG 2.0 earthquake is ten times stronger than a MAG 1.0 earthquake and a MAG 4.0 quake is one thousand times stronger than a MAG 2.0

Is my train of thought correct?

Also, please let me know what you think about this:

Thread: The UN is being Mobilized

Thanks for your help. I'm looking forward to your next update!

OP, I hope with all my heart that you are wrong and that I am wrong.

However, you make a good case and back up your reasoning.

You have helped me make a hard decision. I am going to isolate my wife and I ASAP.

We have a daughter in high school who will graduate this semester. She refuses to call in sick. I totally understand how bad she wants to graduate. If she calls in sick for two weeks, she will not graduate this semester.

So, I have to isolate wife and I in a different part of our house and allow the daughter to have her part of the house. I plan to cut off the AC, vents, and seal the doors with two barriers of heavy polyethylene.

Really hate to do this, but wife and I have a much higher chance of dying than the young one if we get this.

I have a bio suit to use in case the kid is sick and we have to enter to care for her.

Keep up the good work and stay healthy.

Opee, ballpark, how many dead in china if you apply your model to china at R0 2.6?!?!?

Been nice reading your posts all these years

Wake up dammit



[link to youtu.be (secure)]

I don't quite understand the OP's calculations, but considering the numbers he reached, hundreds of millions would already be infected in China and tens of thousands would already be dead. I do not know.

Nice post 604.

Hey OP, have you done any predictions based on the "fake" (or leaked) numbers from last week? Would like to see what that looks like

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]

More confirmation of this being highly contagious within hospital conditions:

[link to jamanetwork.com (secure)]


Much Less than 50%:


Question What are the clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China?

Findings In this single-center case series involving 138 patients with NCIP, 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit and 4.3% died. Presumed human-to-human hospital-associated transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in 41% of patients.

Meaning In this case series in Wuhan, China, NCIP was frequently associated with presumed hospital-related transmission, 26% of patients required intensive care unit treatment, and mortality was 4.3%.

(@lwcalex)

Chinese National Health Commission has changed their definition of #WuhanCoronavirus "confirmed case" in their latest guidelines dated 7/2. Patients tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed.

[b]
(@lwcalex)

Chinese National Health Commission has changed their definition of #WuhanCoronavirus "confirmed case" in their latest guidelines dated 7/2. Patients tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed.

Does the 800-1000 infected outside China apply even if they are all located on a single cruise ship?