WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

On Feb.2nd, I estimated the number of infected people in China to be 25 million (+/- 10%) with 180k to 250k dead.


Today? I have no idea, but it's most likely twice the above numbers.


I stopped worrying about China a log time ago. It's a lost cause.

ABSOLUTELY NO.


The ship is in quarantine. I will use the number of cases on the quarantined ship off Japan EXCLUSIVELY to adjust, in my model, the R0, the incubation period and the chance of contagion in an environment that is similar to an office building or a busy train/subway commute in a big city.


The ship off Japan has been a TREMENDOUS help for my model, and looking at the confirmed cases, that are updated every 24-36 hrs, made me NOT adjust my model.


Like me, I believe that A TON of experts are focused on the cruise ship, because it's near a PERFECT model for a pandemic : people of all ages, multiple nationalities,a social environment that includes bars, ballrooms, kitchens, restaurants, cabins, etc.etc., many of them visiting cities before the quarantine...and what is most important, the ship is in QUARANTINE, which means contact is a minimum since, so the number of positives cases is as "clean" as possible, to determine how this virus spreads, how many got it already and won't pass it (because everyone is quarantined), the length of incubation, the percentage of severe cases, and a ton of other information that wouldn't be available otherwise.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/10/2020 08:52 AM

Exactly

Floating hotlab

A bit off topic. But since we have many recovered cases now, cant the medical labs use the antibodies from those to somehow treat some of the serious cases or protect medical staff? Isnt then such things as bone marrow transplants, blood transplants? fecal transplants? things that transfer antibodies????

This treatment could slow down the virus.

OP - does your model take into account that a majority of the reported "suspected" cases are in fact, dead but can't be added to the "dead" category because no test was run on them (because they died away from the hospital or before tests were run)?

China has been hiding the true count of the dead by sticking them in the "suspected" column.

This is brilliant, sir - good scientific reasoning!

"The ship off Japan has been a TREMENDOUS help for my model, and looking at the confirmed cases, that are updated every 24-36 hrs, made me NOT adjust my model.

Like me, I believe that A TON of experts are focused on the cruise ship, because it's near a PERFECT model for a pandemic : people of all ages, multiple nationalities,a social environment that includes bars, ballrooms, kitchens, restaurants, cabins, etc.etc., many of them visiting cities before the quarantine...and what is most important, the ship is in QUARANTINE, which means contact is a minimum since, so the number of positives cases is as "clean" as possible, to determine how this virus spreads, how many got it already and won't pass it (because everyone is quarantined), the length of incubation, the percentage of severe cases, and a ton of other information that wouldn't be available otherwise.

They will need to cancel the summer Olympics in Japan.

I do not care about China and their bogus numbers.

My model is, and I repeat again, NOT FOR CHINA.

They can have 1 or 1 billion infected people, 1 or 1 billion dead.

It does not matter for my model.

They will announce the canceling of Olympics by the end of February.

And not because of the cruise ship. But because of cases inside Japan, that will sharply rise by the end of February.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/10/2020 09:41 AM

OP, You also have to take into account Governments around the world suppressing information as to prevent a panic.
It will be impossible to tell if your numbers are correct without accurate info. Your numbers are likely more correct than most realize. People need to er on the side of caution.

I read the paper when it was released. Didn't it also say that none of them were sick enough to be hospitalized and they were self quarantined? The first person was only hospitalized because of concerns regarding isolation? (Going from memory - just want to point out what I think is important.)

The numbers in my model will never be confirmed officially. That is a given.

The numbers in my model predict an OUTCOME : the overloading of the healthcare systems and the economic/financial crash.


If the outcome will happen, my model was right.

If the outcome will not happen, my model is wrong.


The governments can hide the CONFIRMED CASES...but they cannot HIDE THE OUTCOME.


Even if every government in the world stops, right now, in announcing new cases...will this STOP the virus?

No.


The OUTCOME cannot be hidden. Because it will affect every one of us, directly.


My model is for those who can see and understand what is coming, and prepare as best as they can.


I can be off by several days, or several millions of infected people.

But it entirely irrelevant when the SHTF starts, be it tomorrow, or February 15th, or February 26th or March 3rd, because SHTF is upon us.

The idiots on the Olympic Committee have said no. They are so worried about losing money (again), that will will put the lives of just about everyone on earth in danger.

With manufacturing plants in Korea shutting down due to lack of Chinese components, I would say your model is pretty close. The world economy depends on communist China supplying components for just about everything. How long do you think the economy will last before worldwide depression put us all in survival mode? Do you have an estimate as to how long it will take to recover from the crash?

This Is How China Is Rigging The Number Of Coronavirus Infections

"Asymptomatic" coronavirus infection no longer counts as a confirmed case, in direct contradiction of WHO guidance...

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]


UK Warns Coronavirus Is "Imminent Threat" After Suspected "Super Spreader" Returns From Singapore

Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau said Monday morning that the coronavirus outbreak will definitely impact the Canadian economy, but the extent of the damage isn't yet clear.

Just minutes later, the WHO started their daily press briefing for Monday by adopting a markedly darker tone. Dr. Tedros, the WHO director-general, said that over the last few days, they've seen "concerning incidents" of onward spreading among people with no history of travel to China (including the Brits who were infected at a French chateau).

This "could be the spark that becomes a bigger fire," Tedros said.

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]

Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed

[link to www.sciencemag.org (secure)]

This has to be the most Derp official debunking ever.

Why can’t people get through their thick skulls that the problem was never the Chinese woman!!!! But the two Germans That got it and never had any direct contact with the Chinese woman but with the German that got it from her!!!!

Derp!!!

This is the beginning of something new. We could crash and fight for survival or the leaders could change the system to something better.

OP, what multiple would you use to be close to what you project?
10x, 5x?
[link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]

Which brings us to an amazing idea...Why not transfer suspected/infected cases to cruiseships, instead of dropping people off in cities? The folks that were recently dropped off in California, should have been taken to a large cruiseship where at least the spreading stops hopefully at that point for time being until properly tested/researched.


Also, would like to thank you OP for keeping us updated with your model findings

What I am projecting is the real deal.


I could care less for my model to be confirmed by anyone. My model, again, is projecting an outcome.


Whether the outcome will take place or not, is what matters, not for me to try and see what others are projecting, announcing or parroting some governments.


Ginsadata or BNOnews are irrelevant to my model, to a large extent. Both are just parroting official numbers, and I only follow them to see certain patterns and variations in the official numbers.


I can afford to say that now, there are between 5 and 6 million people infected outside China, because I am posting on GLP, which is not a news site.


If you choose to believe a site that is only showing official numbers, when it is crystal clear that those numbers are far for being the real numbers, and 24-36 hrs lagging behind the epidemic...be my guest.


If it's better for your own sanity to choose to believe that are only 40,000 infected, because some site on the internet, with some guys posting some numbers, instead 5-6 million, from another guy on the internet posting numbers...what can I do?

I cannot convince you that my numbers are the real ones.

Holy sh.....
In three weeks we are going need healthy people from Mars to attend sick terrestrials !!

What hes saying is take the red pill or blue pill.
Its simple people. How many times does OP have to repeat?

Soak up the info, make logic out of the numbers he gives. Its an IF/THEN answer. This is as close to real data and possibly the truth we will ever get. We will find the truth AFTER its too late if its the case. But KNOW the info before so YOU can realize the truth. Beggars cant be choosers.

I hope OPs model is wrong too. But this is a sneaky ass virus and just like OP said, by mid or end of February if his model is accurate then we are SOL. BUT. BUuUuUuUt. That doesnt mean the rest of the world will know or see it. They will most likely still be lying about it.

Your post is incredible, excelent!! So do you think the mundial economic collapse will be in the end of march? Why?

Op are you wearing mask and gloves, using any protocol?

.

Because of all the reasons I have already said in this thread, starting with page 1.


Not going to repeat them.

I am not going to say what I did, do, or will do.


But you should guess.

Sorry but i dont understand why 15-16 febrary is critical, in what page is the answer?

First page, first post.