WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

you should consider waiting a few days after feb 17th. Those numbers will be easily skewed for a few days, particularly mortality, which we won't see increasing much until at least the 24th.

Either that, or be prepared to adjust the model again a week or two after.

OP

We know Hop and lag time greatly affect the model

Incubation may have just been bumped from 14 days to 24.

If thats the case this currentl model is actually best case scenario lol

That means not only are there nearly 40% more probability in potentials of infection but deaths will shoot up as described by mid to end feb

From February 16th - February 18th, multiple hospitals across the world, starting with India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Africa, will start to feel the pressure.Many hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will start to collapse in certain countries, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

So for this can be critical? If nothing of that happens in 16-18 of next week all the model fail? Thats what you are saying? Sorry for the questions but i want to know when start to prep here in South America (Argentina) i need the time and i need to do calculations too. I want to know when is possible the economic crash here in my country to withdraw the monet from the bank. Your post is very credible, thats why i try to understand it 100%, sorry for that.

Greetings.-

Among other things, yes, lag and hop affects the CONFIRMED CASES...not my model.

I wanted to adjust my model...but the cruise ship in Japan happened, and I realized that my model needs no adjustment.


The longer incubation period doesn't affect my numbers, I have already counted a 14 days MEDIAN incubation period.

Yes, there are cases of 17 days or 21 days...but there are also cases of 5 days and less. I believe that a median 14 days for incubation in my model is more than fine.


This week is critical for many, many reasons. First, I expect MAJOR outbreaks in Hong King and Singapore to happen this week.

If the above major outbreaks (HK and Singapore) happen this week, my model is virtually 100% correct...and probably optimistic.


Secondly, I expect, also this week, the number of cases in the E.U. to at least double. This will be another sign that my model is correct.

I expect, also this week, that India and Africa to be as silent as they are now, or maybe, maybe announce a couple cases.

I expect the U.S. to follow the same trend this week, not announcing any new cases, or only announce like 2 or 3 cases. The reason is simple : the markets have to stay open, and the U.S. have to keep the information quasi-blocked for this to happen.

Same for South and Central America. They will not announce cases, or very few, like 1 or 2.

Thirdly, I expect Thailand and Japan cases to double this week. NOT THE CRUISE SHIP cases, but cases inside Japan.

And fourth, I expect the cases on the cruise ship to be keep the 30-40% infection rate of the tested cases, which will reinforce my model base R0 of 2.4-2.6.



I also expect an event this week, a major one, to take place, and it will be related to the virus, most likely a disorderly panic in a major city...I just don't know which one, tbh.

By the end of this week, you and everyone else will see what is happening, and realize what is going to happen after this week.

The decision will be yours entirely, after what will unfold this week.

Keep your eye on the news...there will be PLENTY.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/10/2020 01:33 PM

Ditto with family at ski area in France, infected by man who had been to conference in Singapore. Who went to hospital in UK a week after leaving France

Now they have a good reason to close banks since banknotes and coins could be spare the pandemic easier.

Too late - they are already set up at dot mil across usa. dot gov not as smart a GLP'ers.

RE: UK - clearly they will have uptick, they clearly already know about that or would not have issued their statement.

Agree we will see uptick this week - and next -- and probably next ---- some say it will continue until Spring when weather warms.

[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]

30% infected op

Ship Definitely being used as a controlled lab

Last Edited by mr. jingles on 02/10/2020 02:27 PM

OP a slightly limiting factor as it gets further on time wise that you may not have taken into account in your model.
Quarantined people cannot infect outside there group once everyone is infected ..also small villages etc once everyone is infected the virus will run out of new victims.

I think that sometime in the next week or two that Trump will go on the tee-vee and talk about CV. Right now they are holding back data from us.

Does anyone know how many CONFIRMED cases outside China there are, excluding cruise ship cases?

Watch not what they say, but what they do......and make your own friggin mind up....

OP,

Sorry for the delay, I just had to change my underwear

I can afford to say that now, there are between 5 and 6 million people infected outside China, because I am posting on GLP, which is not a news site

As an aside there are news articles how a "British Man Contacts Coronavirus"

Just fill in the blank for the person's citizenship. UK, USA, France....
They never mention their ancestry.
Read virus has a proclivity towards infecting Asians.

Are you buying into it is an Asian DNA problem?

p.s. Really respect what you are doing.

Maybe all those years of getting chemtrails in our lungs was in preparation to make this bioweapon pandemic more lethal to everyone as a whole?

No, not at all. Never did.


And the answer is extremely simple : viruses MUTATE.


It matters not if this is a bio-weapon intended against Asians, or a natural virus that started in an Asian population first.

The virus WILL mutate, many times over, in a short period of time, and it will affect everyone, regardless of their DNA specifics.

This is also a coronavirus. It will never disappear. It will stay with us forever...while mutating hundreds of times every season.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/10/2020 03:26 PM

Thanks

Does the 800-1000 infected outside China apply even if they are all located on a single cruise ship?



ABSOLUTELY NO.


The ship is in quarantine. I will use the number of cases on the quarantined ship off Japan EXCLUSIVELY to adjust, in my model, the R0, the incubation period and the chance of contagion in an environment that is similar to an office building or a busy train/subway commute in a big city.


The ship off Japan has been a TREMENDOUS help for my model, and looking at the confirmed cases, that are updated every 24-36 hrs, made me NOT adjust my model.


Like me, I believe that A TON of experts are focused on the cruise ship, because it's near a PERFECT model for a pandemic : people of all ages, multiple nationalities,a social environment that includes bars, ballrooms, kitchens, restaurants, cabins, etc.etc., many of them visiting cities before the quarantine...and what is most important, the ship is in QUARANTINE, which means contact is a minimum since, so the number of positives cases is as "clean" as possible, to determine how this virus spreads, how many got it already and won't pass it (because everyone is quarantined), the length of incubation, the percentage of severe cases, and a ton of other information that wouldn't be available otherwise.


Understood.
They are removing the confirmed infected. Also they have stated they are only going to test those who show symptoms.

Thanks

North Korea Concealing Coronavirus Outbreak; Officials Ordered To 'Quickly Dispose Of Bodies'

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]

Thank you, Chairman Xi.


Now go back to your bunker...or grave.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/10/2020 03:52 PM

Thousands have died from the "flu" and schools all over the US are closed because of "the flu"..

And its not like they will tell us the TRUTH is it?

They hide the TRUE DOOM under the heading "THE FLU".

AND idiots are far too fucking DUMB to see whats REALLY going on here.

Get your flu vax...and everything will be just PEACHY.

Chill, comrade.


Your duty, as a CCP troll, is to make others get mad...not yourself.


But hey, keep posting. Need a bit of amusement.


What else kills more people, outside elevators accidents?

Scientists worry coronavirus could evolve into something worse than flu, says quarantined expert

[link to www.cnbc.com (secure)]



Last Edited by Dangerous Times on 02/10/2020 04:09 PM

I’m sorry, I don’t mean to be dense, but I don’t understand why you can’t share this info?

Yep....wife just went to the doc for other things the other day and they asked her if she had her flu shot yet and if not, do you want one? She quickly said NO because I have educated her about the shots and whats in them.

SAY NO TO FLU SHOTS!!

I can share it...but can you, or anyone else verify if its true?

No, you can't.


I can be an internet troll, I can be a paranoid individual, I can be an agent of Big Pasta, trying to panic people into buying pasta.

It is COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT to this thread what I say about what I do or who I am...because this information cannot be verified, hence, it's useless information.