It's terribly obvious that China's reaction and lockdowns are WAY out of scale from their reported numbers.
If it were me, and I had a city of 8 million, I'd need to have at least 10k dead or in serious danger of dying to lock it down.
It's completely out of control in China. Like trying to fill a missile hole on a sub with bubble gum. What remains to be seen is whether the ACE2 receptors are a factor in virulence and transmissibility of the virus.
Should transmission and strength of the virus decrease in none Asian populations, we will still have significant economic fall out as China is about 17% of the entire world's economy.
So we shall see.
But it is real doom in the making.
Quoting: Fluffy Pancakes I agree.
There is either a horrific death rate, or the infection rate is off the roof.
Or a combination of both.
But one thing is crystal clear : no one will ever lock-down Nanjing for 35 cases.
We can speculate on the numbers, but for such a big city, the infected people have to be a significant percentage of the population, at least 1%. Which is 85,000 people. While the death rate similar with SARS, 8% of the infected, so at least 6,800 dead.
If anyone extrapolates from 8.5 million to 90 million there are locked-down in China, keeping the same 1% of the population infected and 8% of the infected dead, the numbers rise to at least 900,000 infected and at least 72,000 dead.
But here is the thing...we are ONLY talking about the locked-down cities. And even if we stick to those cities, the situation is so dire (everyone on lock-down, within their families, hospitals collapsed, not enough healthcare personal), the number of infected people in such condition will rapidly reach 5-7% of the population, which for those 90 million is 4.5-6.3 million people.
And than you have another 1.3 BILLION people with lesser percentages of infected, the further away from the epicenter.
What exactly is the problem of some people to accept that a 1.4 billion people country is millions of infected and hundreds of thousand of dead, from a virus that NOBODY still doesn't know how it spread, with certitude, especially considering the healthcare system collapsing and the ONLY way to stop the epidemic is to lock down cities?
