There is really no point in updating past February 15th.
Most I can do, but that really depends on how things evolve next week (Feb 10th-16th) in Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Japan, is to have a new, adjusted model, based on new data, for the week of Feb.17th-23rd.
Quoting: deplorable recollector OP, your info is invaluable. Please don’t let the trolls discourage you. Those of us with an IQ higher than a beer can of Halcyon Daze malt liquor desperately WANT your insights.
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It's not about the trolls. It's about the model.
I expect the number of confirmed cases to rise significantly next week, outside China.
If they do not, I will rework the model, and the result will probably be that this virus is just not that bad outside China.
And if it's not that bad, I no longer care about numbers...we dodged the bullet.
The entire reason for my model is to see IF we're fucked or not.
From the beginning I said that February 15th-16th are CRITICAL DATES.
Basically, and I will put this as simple as I can, if by February 16th, the number of OFFICIALLY confirmed cases outside China is going to be around 800...it's BAD NEWS.
My personal expectation is that the number of cases outside China, on February 16th will be close to 1,000.
If we will have 800-1,000 or more confirmed cases at the end of February 16th, outside China, there is no point to update the model...it's SHTF at the beginning of March.
Numbers won't change the outcome.
