OP, in your original (and updated post) you say that International Travel needs to be stopped by Feb. 3rd and Local Quarantine implemented by Feb 5th otherwise the Pandemic will be catastrophic.
At this point do you feel catastrophe is inevitable?
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77134512 I posted an update on the main post.
This week, as I said, is crucial for my model. I have to wait more information this week, but there is a chance, if more cases will be reported with longer than 21 days incubation period, my model to be adjusted quite drastically, for a lower R0, quite possibly under the value of 2.0.
But it is still going to be close to 2.0, which is still bad news, but gives more time, especially for governments to prepare for quarantines.
At this point, to answer your question, it's a 50/50 chance. Depending on what will happen this week, which I repeat, is a critical week, we might dodge the bullet, and fall under the economical depression outcome, avoiding the catastrophic Mad Max outcome.
But I have to wait for this week to pas, and see what will happen.
