"Feb 12th: Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100"
(OP)

fail

As of today 2/10/2020
910 reported deaths total
[link to wuflu.live (secure)]
871 in Hubei Province
37 the rest of China (highest in a single province 7)
2 deaths outside China (1 Chinese, 1 immunocompromised)
( Thread: Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is Not Proving to be Very Deadly Outside Hubei Province, Why Not? (Page 4) CK Dexter Haven)

and the cruise ship in Japan (a "real" "big lab") also has shown death rate progress opposite to what model points