The vast majority of confirmed cases are serious enough to go to a hospital.

Those 800 confirmed cases are outside Africa, India, S&C.America, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other countries (who do not have testing kits or don't report cases), which are about 4.2 billion people.

There are 6.3 billion people outside China.

So, 800 confirmed cases for about 2.1 billion people, which is about 1/3rd of the cases outside China.

Hence, the real number of serious cases is actually 2,400, but only 800 are tested and confirmed usually 24-36 hrs. after testing.

Now, serious cases are roughly 18% of the total SYMPTOMATIC cases.

Which means that there are around 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases outside China, with 82% of them being mild cases and confused with a light flu, and will not go to a hospital, hence, they are undetected and untested and, ofc, not confirmed...but they ARE 13,300 REAL people.

Now, in order to have 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases, who are out of incubation phase which is usually 14 days, according to latest data, applying a 2.2 denominator (the R0) for each "hop", and a "hop" is maximum 24 hrs. (it is usually less) it means that there are 2.2 x 2.2 (13 times in row) = 11,165 infected but ASYMPTOMATIC people for 1 of the each 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases.

Which is 11,165 x 13,300, roughly 148,500,000 infected people in total (asymptomatic+mild cases+serious cases) OUTSIDE CHINA.

Yes, 800 is a drop in an ocean...the problem is that those 800 confirmed cases cannot exist if there aren't 148,5 MILLION infected behind them.


I hope I made myself understood.