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Message Subject WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
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OP, you show approximately a doubling every day for cases outside of China. Please explain.

If that was the case, the pandemic would have been over in China by early January. As it is, they have yet to reach the peak of the pandemic after over two months.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77706747



Why would the epidemic been over in China by early January?

Do you know when it started? Because not even the Chinese know.

In theory, the entire population of China would be infected in 1 month. Yes, in THEORY, and in perfect circumstances, in 31 days, the entire on China would be infected.

But in real world, there are thousands of reason why an epidemic might get slower or faster.

We don't know much about China in general, and Wuhan, especially. There is very possible, and highly probable that the epidemic was in Wuhan for a very long time, and I have no time or the will to write a paper on this subject.

The R0 is nothing but a theoretical value, that is used in MODELING, and not applied to the real world.

We know that Wuhan is a main transportation hub, and this is the main reason why the epidemic spread all over China, but we don't know WHEN and HOW.

When an epidemic starts, there is a patient Zero. The Patient Zero might not be contagious for DAYS...or he might be contagious after 1 minute. We DO NOT KNOW.

Same for patients 1 and 2, infected by P0 at some point. They also might become contagious after DAYS.
Again, WE DO NOT KNOW.

P0 might have been stayed indoors, with P1 and P2, his buddies, for 3-4 days, with booze and food...or all of them might have been traveling to separate destinations in day 1 : one to Shanghai, one to Beijing, and one to Shenzen.

WE DON'T KNOW.


So, yes, while in theory, in 7 days there might be 127 infected people...there might as well be only 13, or 17, or 310, depending on how contagious were the infected people, where they work (or not), how they travel, when and where, what social life they have, family size, where their family lives, where they go, etc. etc.

WE DON'T KNOW.


What we ALMOST know, is when the critical stages are reached in an epidemic, mainly when there are hundreds of CONFIRMED cases, in 2 or more locations, and when those cases were confirmed

From that point on, the models begin to get closer to reality...but the models are still far from reality. We still need to know the incubation period and how contagious are the people that are still in the incubation phase...but again, we STILL DON'T KNOW THAT.


Depending on the situation, an epidemic might take WEEKS before it reaches the stage of hundreds of confirmed cases, which would imply thousands of infected people.

This is a theoretical model for 2 weeks, where all the infected patients are equally contagious, and all of them infect another 2 people :
DAY - INFECTED
1-1
2-2
3-4
4-8
5-16
6-32
7-64
8-128
9-256
10-512
11-1,024
12-2,048
13-4,096
14-​8,192

At the end of 14 days, we would have a total of 16,383 infected people.
(At the end of 31 days, we would have like 1.6 billion infected people).

Now, add in a single variable : the infected people are not contagious for 2 days.

Well...this means that it would take 28 days for the same number of 16,383 people to be infected.

Add one more variable : the incubation period is 14 days, and the infection chance for people within the incubation period is half of those that are symptomatic.

This means that we would get the same 16,383 people infected in 56 days.


Obviously, all of the examples are THEORETICAL. But you should get the idea. It HIGHLY depends how contagious people are in the incubation period, after the incubation period, where they live, travel, etc. etc.

What you and everyone else needs to understand is that there are critical stages in an epidemic.

We all know that China lies about the numbers, that is a given. But we also know that China took measures that slowed down the epidemic, mainly full lock-downs of cities (and withing those cities, lock-down of buildings and districts) and provinces and travel restrictions between cities and provinces.

All those measure matter in slowing down an epidemic that is already affecting thousands in 2 or more locations.


My model is a theoretical one, and it might be wrong, but it is closer and closer to reality the more time passes.

I can be off by several days, or even a week or two...the MAIN ISSUE is that except China, NOBODY ELSE took ANY measures to slow down the pandemic WITHIN THEIR COUNTRIES and BETWEEN THEIR COUNTRIES.

Sure, many stopped flights to China...but China didn't stopped flights to other countries. Taking the temperature in airports is completely useless. Well, let's say 99% useless. They might get 1-2 people here and there with fever or whatever.

But did anyone stopped flights between the U.S. and Germany? Or U.K. and Japan? Nope. Everyone is still happily traveling all over the fucking world and nobody is testing them...because it is IMPOSSIBLE to do it.


My model predicts a number of 200-250 million people infected at the end of February 15th. I am 100% SURE AS HELL that I am wrong, because I do not know how and when the first infected guy outside China got infected, who he infected, how contagious he was, the incubation period, where he lives, etc.etc.

But what I do know is that even if I am off by a week...this pandemic is full blown outside China, because NOBODY is stopping traveling between countries, inside countries, nobody is locking-down cities or areas in a city.

In other words, my model numbers for February 15th could be the numbers from February 7th., and there are only 550-700k infected outside China, instead 200-250 million.

Do you think THAT MATTERS even a little bit?

It matters not, because when we are in hundreds of thousands, the models are very close to reality, and instead of having 250 million infected outside China on February 15th...we will have them on February 23rd.

There are so many variables in a model, and if I would have posted THE ENTIRE MODEL I HAVE, it would be a fucking book or a 6 hours power point presentation.

And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thanks for explaining.

We have real world effects that will come to light and will point to an average R0 in China.

Are all in Wuhan infected who can be? Unlikely, but they are getting there. If the Japanese evacuation flight (1.5% infected) was a data point in time, then we can estimate from the beginning of December the progression. Today the infected % in Wuhan may be around 17%. This includes the millions that escaped prior to lockdown.

Once we have indications the virus has reached its peak in China, we can backtrack and determine the progression rate.

The developed world R0 with SARS was between .4 RO, with perfect practical isolation measures, to just below 1 RO.

We apply that to the China R0 and can estimate its progression in the developed world. The China R0 could be reasonably applied to India and Africa.

Truth be told, this virus may be so fast moving that any predicted range of R0 may mean only weeks of difference between estimated dates of world NCoV saturation.
 
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