OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045 You are right. This is what OP said:
—-An epidemic model of R0 value over 4.0 might have lower numbers than a mathematical model built on an R0 of 2.2., because an epidemic model have the data from infection cycle, or hop.
I do not know if the cycle is 24 hrs, or 9 hrs...or 72 hrs. I have no idea, because such information is not available.
I chose my cycle to be 24 hrs, based on what a normal person, infected with the virus, does in 24 hrs : wakes up, goes to work and come back home.
Now, that person is asymptomatic at first, and he might or might not be
contagious enough to spread the virus to other 2.4-2.6 people in 24 hrs.
He might get infected on a Friday, and he doesn't go to work on Saturday and Sunday. He might live alone. Or he have a big family...—-
Although OP is correct that there are a lot of variables (no.of contacts, how transmitted, etc), we DO know that the infectious period is something like 2 weeks give take so the R0 is the average person to person infections DURING THAT PERIOD, not in 24 hours.
The R0 is THE MOST IMPORTANT number and can create wildly different results.
