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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

 
Anonymous Coward
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France
02/13/2020 11:05 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to www.ccn.com (secure)]


Dow Tumbles as U.S. Warned of 100,000s of Coronavirus Cases

Health experts urged Congress to prepare for widespread coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. which could number in the hundreds of thousands.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged from its record high on Thursday.

Health experts told the Senate to brace for “hundreds of thousands” of U.S. coronavirus cases.

China reported a parabolic rise in deaths and cases after changing its diagnostic methodology.


U.S. coronavirus outbreaks to emerge in ‘two-four weeks’
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 11:18 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Suggestion to OP

Would be a good idea to edit your thread title to include the page number of latest update before posting it.
 Quoting: 3927


As per requested : my model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-IMPORTANT UPDATES MAIN POST (updated daily)
Come on and take a free ride.
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 11:22 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
U.S. coronavirus outbreaks to emerge in ‘two-four weeks’
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


Which means that those infections have already happened, you have to take the incubation period into account. We won't have a definite answer about how fucked we already are for 7-21 days. There very well could be GLPers that are already infected. Dead men walking.
Come on and take a free ride.
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 11:39 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP here's something that could really screw your model up.
[link to www.newsweek.com (secure)]

If bullets start flying and we get pulled in to this shit as well, well then the Pandemic could potentially devastate the population of the world. One of the largest contributors to the spread of the Spanish Flu, which very well could have originated in Kansas, was the doughboys in WWI arriving in Europe.
Come on and take a free ride.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 12:04 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
UH
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02/13/2020 12:25 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Thursday, February 13th, 15:00 GMT :

-8 new cases in Singapore.
-4 new cases in Japan, (NOT on the cruise ship), one of the a fatality. One of the Japan cases today is a doctor.
-10,000 people commune locked-down in Vietnam.


The day is not over yet...the week is not over yet.


Based on my model, this week is critical.


Stay close, there will be more news before this day and week is over.




As I previously stated, I expect Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to be the first after China, and this week is very important in determining where this pandemic is going.


Again, like like said yesterday, things are NOT looking good.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



INDIA AND AFRIC-UH ARE MY TWO 'FEARS'...!
Epic Beard Guy

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02/13/2020 12:42 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


San Antonio is not hell, but it's getting there. The liberal progressive government is destroying that beautiful city. I have a son there right now, and I'm afraid he is in a bad place when the true extent of this infection becomes known. There are just too many people, even though the city is spread out over a large area. Down town is always packed and the homeless are everywhere. One infected person on the River Walk could infect hundreds of others in a matter of an hour or less.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
IdeaMan1624

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02/13/2020 12:54 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


Yes San Antonio can be very hot but this time of year it is quite pleasant. My post on the economy will include two visions, the global economy and the USA economy. As this virus situation escalates and intensifies throughout the globe survival and health is most important. But I also believe opportunities will present themselves that in a very big way will help others too. Expect this economy related post, only in this thread, in a 2-3 days. Holding positions in any market over any weekend is always very risky, especially now.
IdeaMan1624
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02/13/2020 01:14 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


Yes San Antonio can be very hot but this time of year it is quite pleasant. My post on the economy will include two visions, the global economy and the USA economy. As this virus situation escalates and intensifies throughout the globe survival and health is most important. But I also believe opportunities will present themselves that in a very big way will help others too. Expect this economy related post, only in this thread, in a 2-3 days. Holding positions in any market over any weekend is always very risky, especially now.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


dead3 BEING ON THAT ASPHALT DRILL PAD WAS HELL..MAYBE EVEN HOTTER THAN HELL WHEN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE WAS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. dead3

THE RIVER WALK? IT WAS MORE LIKE A DEATH WALK. SCUM AND CRIME WAS ALL OVER THAT PLACE. IT WAS DIRTIER THAN HELL TOO. SHIT, MAN..AN INDIVIDUAL CAN CATCH THE PLAGUE JUST BREATHING THE AIR AROUND THERE.

I DON'T KNOW WHY THEY'RE LETTING THAT AREA DIE.

I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR REPORT. WHAT WILL THE TITLE BE SO I CAN LOOK FOR IT?

THANKS A LOT! hf

P.S. FOR THE HATERZ WHO ARE GONNA HATE ON ME FOR WHAT I SAID..IF THEY WERE THERE WHEN I WAS THERE AND SAW WHAT I SAW..THEY'D HAVE SAID THE SAME THINGS THAT I SAID. TRUST ME WHEN I SAY EVEN THE NATIVES WERE PISSED OFF OVER THE SEVERE DECLINE OF THE RIVER WALK AREA.
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 01:21 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


San Antonio is not hell, but it's getting there. The liberal progressive government is destroying that beautiful city. I have a son there right now, and I'm afraid he is in a bad place when the true extent of this infection becomes known. There are just too many people, even though the city is spread out over a large area. Down town is always packed and the homeless are everywhere. One infected person on the River Walk could infect hundreds of others in a matter of an hour or less.
 Quoting: Epic Beard Guy


I spent a lot of time on Lackland as a youngster in Civil Air Patrol and my father was stationed at Kelly AFB. Oh, San Antonio can truely be hellish in the summer. You get heat and humidity, no thanks.

Although after my time in the Army, I would have to say that Ft Benning & Ft Polk are worse.

Last Edited by Pinochet'sChopperPilot on 02/13/2020 01:24 PM
Come on and take a free ride.
Fred_Flintstone

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02/13/2020 01:23 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
My fear is once it is 'uncontained' in a country and is not visible then it gets ugly. If it takes 20 days to show Pneumonia and only 2 days to incubate until a person is virulent then the person is spreading all the while. Plus the next person is infected and the next and the next. 9 generations later you see the person with pneumonia and have a clue it is there but then it is almost too late.

Once it is uncontained in a country the country needs to go on lockdown. If not, it is pretty much over for them.

We should see this data play out in Japan/SIG soon. If it escalates and they publish the real numbers then we will see what we are actually dealing with...problem is, even then it could be too late for all of us.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 01:35 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
My fear is once it is 'uncontained' in a country and is not visible then it gets ugly. If it takes 20 days to show Pneumonia and only 2 days to incubate until a person is virulent then the person is spreading all the while. Plus the next person is infected and the next and the next. 9 generations later you see the person with pneumonia and have a clue it is there but then it is almost too late.

Once it is uncontained in a country the country needs to go on lockdown. If not, it is pretty much over for them.

We should see this data play out in Japan/SIG soon. If it escalates and they publish the real numbers then we will see what we are actually dealing with...problem is, even then it could be too late for all of us.
 Quoting: Fred_Flintstone


From an OPSEC standpoint consider it too late already and plan accordingly.

If you don't "beat the panic" you are too late.
The virus alone is just one issue. Think food supply, civil services, utilities, and quickly civil unrest(WOROL).
Zovalex

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02/13/2020 01:45 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“You have been programmed to resist the very person that is here to set you free, from the prison of your Mind... You are not free... everything you are has been manufactured by Minds that have not your best interest. You are imprisoned by beliefs and not reality. Religions are mental programs to imprison your Mind.”

-SOL
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78473572
South Africa
02/13/2020 01:56 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472576


Is 'Wish' the SA state postal service? Or maybe the decision is more recent than two days ago?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


Wish is a Chinese online store like Alibaba, they deliver through the South African Postal service.
Zovalex

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02/13/2020 02:00 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to www.ccn.com (secure)]


Dow Tumbles as U.S. Warned of 100,000s of Coronavirus Cases

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


“Dow tumbles”????

Strange, because I’m looking right at it and it’s at the highest level it’s ever been in stock market history.

.
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“You have been programmed to resist the very person that is here to set you free, from the prison of your Mind... You are not free... everything you are has been manufactured by Minds that have not your best interest. You are imprisoned by beliefs and not reality. Religions are mental programs to imprison your Mind.”

-SOL
UnReal
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02/13/2020 02:03 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
We're fucked..
IdeaMan1624

User ID: 77578604
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02/13/2020 02:19 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


Tell your friends to sell a partial position and short the DOW or SPX or even option puts to hedge a large downside move which is very likely any day now. I would say trillions of USD have already gone into the markets worldwide to keep them up. Its coming to an end very soon. JMO
IdeaMan1624
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02/13/2020 02:20 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
The officials in Greece haven't announced any Coronavirus case for the moment. The weird thing though is that we had a sadden spike in deaths from the flu, 17 and 15 deaths in the two previous weeks with a total of 53 dead since October, so MOST of them died in the two previous weeks which is weird too because the weather is actually very nice and it isn't ideal for the spread of the flu virus. I am wondering if they actually report Coronavirus caused deaths as flu ones in order not to cause any panic.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 02:25 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
The officials in Greece haven't announced any Coronavirus case for the moment. The weird thing though is that we had a sadden spike in deaths from the flu, 17 and 15 deaths in the two previous weeks with a total of 53 dead since October, so MOST of them died in the two previous weeks which is weird too because the weather is actually very nice and it isn't ideal for the spread of the flu virus. I am wondering if they actually report Coronavirus caused deaths as flu ones in order not to cause any panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472133


they will do whatever it takes to avoid panic.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 02:29 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
The officials in Greece haven't announced any Coronavirus case for the moment. The weird thing though is that we had a sadden spike in deaths from the flu, 17 and 15 deaths in the two previous weeks with a total of 53 dead since October, so MOST of them died in the two previous weeks which is weird too because the weather is actually very nice and it isn't ideal for the spread of the flu virus. I am wondering if they actually report Coronavirus caused deaths as flu ones in order not to cause any panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472133


they will do whatever it takes to avoid panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78474501


hesright
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 02:42 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Pardon my ignorance please, I’m trying to keep up with, and analyze, all the info, and it helps to identify sources.

OP, you created this model and you host the 001 intel thread?

Thanks!
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 02:48 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
20 min in and he's BASHING Trump for being stupid enough to cut the budget for CDC. Goddamned the stupid orange idiot.
[link to www.hsgac.senate.gov (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045



Would be great if OP would address this comment. Basically he is saying the R0 value is spread over a period of time that is much longer than 24 hours.

You can look at it like a bank account interest rate. Not 2% daily, but 2% over a much longer period - yet the 2% figure is correct.

Is the OP compounding this infection rate daily to arrive at the model's figures?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78468629

The R0 is an average, you can use that figure for what ever time frame you want, as long as you use that figure consistently. There are a few videos on YouTube that explain how to come up with this number yourself.
 Quoting: DeplorableDoomsdayGuy®


Not arguing with OP model or value of work (so many unknowns), but n R0 for infecting others during 24 hours versus 2 weeks does make a HUGE difference.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 03:31 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045



Would be great if OP would address this comment. Basically he is saying the R0 value is spread over a period of time that is much longer than 24 hours.

You can look at it like a bank account interest rate. Not 2% daily, but 2% over a much longer period - yet the 2% figure is correct.

Is the OP compounding this infection rate daily to arrive at the model's figures?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78468629

The R0 is an average, you can use that figure for what ever time frame you want, as long as you use that figure consistently. There are a few videos on YouTube that explain how to come up with this number yourself.
 Quoting: DeplorableDoomsdayGuy®


Not arguing with OP model or value of work (so many unknowns), but n R0 for infecting others during 24 hours versus 2 weeks does make a HUGE difference.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


To clarify, the difference between infecting others (R0 of 2 people or whatever) during a 1 day period and the same rate during a 2 week period is the SPEED at which the epidemic spreads, not the number of people infected.
piratedon

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02/13/2020 03:40 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Seems to me; if the doubling period is just a few days, incubation is up to 42 days and most deaths are at least a few weeks from infection then statistics are very skewed by the huge influx before outcome. So the situation is even more dire.

Does anyone know the rationale for calculating the impact as anything over than the ratio of deaths to longer survivors?
piratedon
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 03:43 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
What sources do we have regarding the incubation period? I think focus needs to be on this, finding the best credible experts. (Please, not WHO, but actual scientific info). The incubation period has been getting longer and longer, we need a much better understanding and/or debunking.

.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 03:45 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Also, what other virus has this kind of lengthy incubation period? That comparison might help - idk. We are all guessing for lack of verifiable info.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/13/2020 03:48 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Ok I found this paper on viral incubation periods, overall good info

[link to www.virology.ws]
piratedon

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02/13/2020 03:51 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)] quotes it. 42 days incubation. I haven't watched it. I believe the original came from a source inside China but I could be wrong. The trouble is that with things moving so fast it will take time for more scientific sources to raise their heads and time is of the essence as they say.

Last Edited by piratedon on 02/13/2020 04:08 PM
piratedon
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02/13/2020 03:52 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
20 min in and he's BASHING Trump for being stupid enough to cut the budget for CDC. Goddamned the stupid orange idiot.
[link to www.hsgac.senate.gov (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78451900


But military needs to never be touched!!





GLP