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REPORT COPYRIGHT VIOLATION IN REPLY
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Message Subject
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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
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Poster Handle
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Anonymous Coward |
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Post Content
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OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045 Would be great if OP would address this comment. Basically he is saying the R0 value is spread over a period of time that is much longer than 24 hours. You can look at it like a bank account interest rate. Not 2% daily, but 2% over a much longer period - yet the 2% figure is correct. Is the OP compounding this infection rate daily to arrive at the model's figures? The R0 is an average, you can use that figure for what ever time frame you want, as long as you use that figure consistently. There are a few videos on YouTube that explain how to come up with this number yourself. Not arguing with OP model or value of work (so many unknowns), but n R0 for infecting others during 24 hours versus 2 weeks does make a HUGE difference. To clarify, the difference between infecting others (R0 of 2 people or whatever) during a 1 day period and the same rate during a 2 week period is the SPEED at which the epidemic spreads, not the number of people infected.
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