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Message Subject WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
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VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :

Thanks to Japan quarantined cruise ship, the model will NOT be modified, as I previously stated, and I would like you all to take the time to read WHY the cruise ship quarantined in Japan prompted me not to modify the current model.

1.Japan knew that a confirmed case was on the cruise ship.
2.Japan knew that everyone on the cruise ship is a suspect.

In other words, Japan was FULLY PREPARED to quarantine and test everyone on that ship.

Even in this conditions, knowing where the suspected are, knowing that they are all in the same place and knowing that the quarantine was basically instant (duh, it's a ship), it took SIXTEEN HOURS for Japan to test and announce the test results for ONLY THIRTY-ONE people !

Not only that this will create a HUGE backlog, because Japan have to test almost 3,800 people, and if they needed bloody sixteen hours for 31 people, while being fully prepared BEFORE they quarantined the ship, this proves, without a shadow of the doubt that the official confirmed cases are a small fraction of the number of infected people.

Imagine that those 3,800 people on the cruise ship in Japan are spread over 20 countries...and nobody KNOWS who they are, where they are and who they were in close contact with.

It is crystal clear that the officially confirmed cases outside China are a mere fraction of the real number of infected people.

If a fully prepared Japan, a country with proverbial efficiency, and a top-notch healthcare system, needed SIXTEEN HOURS to test 31 people, all in the SAME PLACE and already QUARANTINED...I am sorry, but my model is probably OPTIMISTIC at this point.

JAPAN UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Japan’s Ministry of Health is unable to test all passengers on the #DiamondPrincess cruise for #COVID19, because their number of test kits are limited. They need to first test high-risk passengers but also have to take care of elderlies and patients with other diseases.

If Japan, one of the richest and developed countries in the WORLD, cannot AFFORD to test 3,700 people...no wonder that the number of officially confirmed cases is THAT LOW, compared to my model numbers.

I decided, AGAIN, not to modify my model. There is no point. It is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people !


IMPORTANT UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Recently, a number of cases officially reported as having a much longer incubation period, up to 40-42 days. Another cases reportedly having 20+ days.
As I said, this week is critical for my model, and official news on a longer period of incubation, point to a longer than 14 days incubation period.
If such cases continue to be reported, my model will need to be adjusted for a longer incubation period, and this changes the dynamic a lot, especially the contagion rate, because while many of the asymptomatic cases are contagious, they are far less contagious compared to symptomatic ones.
And this affects the infection chance, which was around 0.7-0.8 in my model.

The infection rate might get to 0.5-0.6, if the median incubation period is closer to 21 days.
This is bad news and good news. Bad, because many more cases will go undetected and keep spreading the virus, and good news because the R0 will drop under 2.0.

If the asymptomatic cases are highly contagious, the infection chance might go over 0.8...
As I said, this week is critical for my model.

I will keep add in the model the confirmed cases by authorities, but I will not modify the numbers of infected people in the model, with the note that I will add my calculated numbers proportionally for the U.S., Africa, India, South and Central America, Europe and South-East Asia.

Additionally, I will also apply a 20-21% (it is highly likely that is close to 18%, according to latest data, and I will modify the model numbers for serious cases after Feb.15th, but until that date, it will stay at 20-21%) rate for serious cases, that require hospitalization, to better predict when the healthcare systems (for each geographical area) will start to overload.

-----------------------------------------------

I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate and number of infected people outside China. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number (failed).
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists (working).
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 (failed).
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5 (failed).

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


IMPORTANT NOTE :
Due to information from CDC presser on January 31st, multiple testing is needed to confirm a case as being positive.
The multiple testing takes 36-48 hrs. until the test is confirmed as positive.
My model assumed much faster testing, with testing and confirmation being in the same day.No official information was public that testing needs 36-48 hrs at the time I posted my model.

-------------------------------------------------------
Model data from January 28th to February 5th is removed. It is old data, and no longer relevant, especially because the measures needed to slow/stop the pandemic outside China were not implemented.
-------------------------------------------------------

If by February 5th, 2020, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate and it will be impossible to contain it.

From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India, Africa and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 6-7th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones, in red, and lower-end in blue :

According to WHO and many official experts, the detection of cases is about 38%, which results in a 80% detection rate (*it is likely that the detection rate is 60% or even lower, as of February 10th) outside Africa and India.

The detection rate and testing in Central and South America SHOULD also be deducted, because the countries in Central and South America also lack testing kits, and there isn't much difference in their big cities hygiene and overcrowding compared to Indian and African cities. But they are not that bad, and have better, even if insufficient equipped healthcare systems.

The "share" of geographical areas, outside China, affected by the pandemic is as follows, considering that India and Africa are going to be more exposed compared to other areas :
1.India : 28-29% of infected / serious cases
2.Africa : 24-25% of infected / serious cases

3.Central + South America : 9% of infected / serious cases
4.U.S. + Canada : 4%-5% of infected / serious cases
5.Europe : 6-8% of infected / serious cases

6.Rest of Asia (minus China and India) : 26-27% of infected / serious cases


Important note : India and Africa will see most infected and most serious cases, but A LOT of them will go undetected, and most of the serious cases will not be able to go to a hospital, and will die at home, also undetected, hence, missing from official numbers.

I choose to keep the Central and South America as a 10% margin of error in the number of officially detected and confirmed cases outside Africa and India.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 6th :276,000 /345,000 infected, with 2,880/3,600 presenting symptoms
Serious cases that need hospitalization : 580 - 780
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 306 - 413.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India 274 - 367
80% detection rate applied : 219 - 293 serious cases should be detected and tested
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 275
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.

---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 7th :552,000 /690,000 infected, with 6,000/7,500 presenting symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 1,200 - 1,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 648 - 810.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
552 - 690
80% detection rate applied : 441 - 552 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 327
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 8th :1,148,000 /1,435,000 infected /12,480 /15,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization :2,500 3,120Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 1,350 - 1,685
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
1,150 - 1,435
80% detection rate applied : 920 - 1,148 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 354
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 9th : 2,384,000 /2,980,000 infected /21,960/ 27,456 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 4,400 - 5,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 2,376 - 2,970
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India : 2,024 - 2,530

80% detection rate applied : 1,619 - 2,204
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 379
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------
Feb 10th: 4,992,000 /6,240,000 infected/45,680/57,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 9,200 - 11,400

Africa+India+C&S.America serious cases, 64% of the total:
5,888 - 7,296
Remaining serious cases : 3,312 - 4,104
60% detection rate applied : 1,987 - 2,462

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 461
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------

Due to the latest announcement from Japan not having enough test kits to test all of the 3,700 people aboard the cruise ship, it is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people.
There is no point to see how many cases are being reported any longer.
There are simply not enough kits, no matter which country we are talking about.
That on top of the clear intent of all governments to hide and/or report as few cases as possible.


Feb 11th: 10,383,000 /12,979,000 infected / 94,480/ 118,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 18,900 - 23,600


Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100


Feb 13th: 46,576,000 /58,220,000 infected /407,700/ 509,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 81,600 - 101,900


Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000


Feb 15th:202,957,000 /253,697,000 infected /1,763,000/2,204,800 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 353,000 - 441,000



From February 16th - February 18th, multiple hospitals across the world, starting with India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Africa, will start to feel the pressure.Many hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will start to collapse in certain countries, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

United States and Europe hospitals will start see the pressure of patients, at the end of February-beginning of March, and will quickly be overwhelmed by mid-March.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


can we put this in GLP failed predictions list yet? lol

FAIL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78402657


The game is not over yet, but you can continue with your jokes until the moment when reality knocks on your door, stay here, there will still be news for you
 
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