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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

 
Anonymous Coward
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Greece
02/13/2020 04:05 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
The officials in Greece haven't announced any Coronavirus case for the moment. The weird thing though is that we had a sadden spike in deaths from the flu, 17 and 15 deaths in the two previous weeks with a total of 53 dead since October, so MOST of them died in the two previous weeks which is weird too because the weather is actually very nice and it isn't ideal for the spread of the flu virus. I am wondering if they actually report Coronavirus caused deaths as flu ones in order not to cause any panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472133


they will do whatever it takes to avoid panic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78474501


Well.. doing calculated moves implies they are actually competent enough to think and plan. They are not. In fact they are totally unprepared to handle anything out of the ordinary and when a confirmed case presents itself they will panic trying to locate the contacts etc.
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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02/13/2020 04:10 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ-A

Killer Bunny
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 04:50 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :

Thanks to Japan quarantined cruise ship, the model will NOT be modified, as I previously stated, and I would like you all to take the time to read WHY the cruise ship quarantined in Japan prompted me not to modify the current model.

1.Japan knew that a confirmed case was on the cruise ship.
2.Japan knew that everyone on the cruise ship is a suspect.

In other words, Japan was FULLY PREPARED to quarantine and test everyone on that ship.

Even in this conditions, knowing where the suspected are, knowing that they are all in the same place and knowing that the quarantine was basically instant (duh, it's a ship), it took SIXTEEN HOURS for Japan to test and announce the test results for ONLY THIRTY-ONE people !

Not only that this will create a HUGE backlog, because Japan have to test almost 3,800 people, and if they needed bloody sixteen hours for 31 people, while being fully prepared BEFORE they quarantined the ship, this proves, without a shadow of the doubt that the official confirmed cases are a small fraction of the number of infected people.

Imagine that those 3,800 people on the cruise ship in Japan are spread over 20 countries...and nobody KNOWS who they are, where they are and who they were in close contact with.

It is crystal clear that the officially confirmed cases outside China are a mere fraction of the real number of infected people.

If a fully prepared Japan, a country with proverbial efficiency, and a top-notch healthcare system, needed SIXTEEN HOURS to test 31 people, all in the SAME PLACE and already QUARANTINED...I am sorry, but my model is probably OPTIMISTIC at this point.

JAPAN UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Japan’s Ministry of Health is unable to test all passengers on the #DiamondPrincess cruise for #COVID19, because their number of test kits are limited. They need to first test high-risk passengers but also have to take care of elderlies and patients with other diseases.

If Japan, one of the richest and developed countries in the WORLD, cannot AFFORD to test 3,700 people...no wonder that the number of officially confirmed cases is THAT LOW, compared to my model numbers.

I decided, AGAIN, not to modify my model. There is no point. It is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people !


IMPORTANT UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Recently, a number of cases officially reported as having a much longer incubation period, up to 40-42 days. Another cases reportedly having 20+ days.
As I said, this week is critical for my model, and official news on a longer period of incubation, point to a longer than 14 days incubation period.
If such cases continue to be reported, my model will need to be adjusted for a longer incubation period, and this changes the dynamic a lot, especially the contagion rate, because while many of the asymptomatic cases are contagious, they are far less contagious compared to symptomatic ones.
And this affects the infection chance, which was around 0.7-0.8 in my model.

The infection rate might get to 0.5-0.6, if the median incubation period is closer to 21 days.
This is bad news and good news. Bad, because many more cases will go undetected and keep spreading the virus, and good news because the R0 will drop under 2.0.

If the asymptomatic cases are highly contagious, the infection chance might go over 0.8...
As I said, this week is critical for my model.

I will keep add in the model the confirmed cases by authorities, but I will not modify the numbers of infected people in the model, with the note that I will add my calculated numbers proportionally for the U.S., Africa, India, South and Central America, Europe and South-East Asia.

Additionally, I will also apply a 20-21% (it is highly likely that is close to 18%, according to latest data, and I will modify the model numbers for serious cases after Feb.15th, but until that date, it will stay at 20-21%) rate for serious cases, that require hospitalization, to better predict when the healthcare systems (for each geographical area) will start to overload.

-----------------------------------------------

I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate and number of infected people outside China. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number (failed).
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists (working).
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 (failed).
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5 (failed).

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


IMPORTANT NOTE :
Due to information from CDC presser on January 31st, multiple testing is needed to confirm a case as being positive.
The multiple testing takes 36-48 hrs. until the test is confirmed as positive.
My model assumed much faster testing, with testing and confirmation being in the same day.No official information was public that testing needs 36-48 hrs at the time I posted my model.

-------------------------------------------------------
Model data from January 28th to February 5th is removed. It is old data, and no longer relevant, especially because the measures needed to slow/stop the pandemic outside China were not implemented.
-------------------------------------------------------

If by February 5th, 2020, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate and it will be impossible to contain it.

From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India, Africa and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 6-7th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones, in red, and lower-end in blue :

According to WHO and many official experts, the detection of cases is about 38%, which results in a 80% detection rate (*it is likely that the detection rate is 60% or even lower, as of February 10th) outside Africa and India.

The detection rate and testing in Central and South America SHOULD also be deducted, because the countries in Central and South America also lack testing kits, and there isn't much difference in their big cities hygiene and overcrowding compared to Indian and African cities. But they are not that bad, and have better, even if insufficient equipped healthcare systems.

The "share" of geographical areas, outside China, affected by the pandemic is as follows, considering that India and Africa are going to be more exposed compared to other areas :
1.India : 28-29% of infected / serious cases
2.Africa : 24-25% of infected / serious cases

3.Central + South America : 9% of infected / serious cases
4.U.S. + Canada : 4%-5% of infected / serious cases
5.Europe : 6-8% of infected / serious cases

6.Rest of Asia (minus China and India) : 26-27% of infected / serious cases


Important note : India and Africa will see most infected and most serious cases, but A LOT of them will go undetected, and most of the serious cases will not be able to go to a hospital, and will die at home, also undetected, hence, missing from official numbers.

I choose to keep the Central and South America as a 10% margin of error in the number of officially detected and confirmed cases outside Africa and India.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 6th :276,000 /345,000 infected, with 2,880/3,600 presenting symptoms
Serious cases that need hospitalization : 580 - 780
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 306 - 413.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India 274 - 367
80% detection rate applied : 219 - 293 serious cases should be detected and tested
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 275
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.

---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 7th :552,000 /690,000 infected, with 6,000/7,500 presenting symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 1,200 - 1,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 648 - 810.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
552 - 690
80% detection rate applied : 441 - 552 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 327
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 8th :1,148,000 /1,435,000 infected /12,480 /15,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization :2,500 3,120Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 1,350 - 1,685
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
1,150 - 1,435
80% detection rate applied : 920 - 1,148 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 354
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 9th : 2,384,000 /2,980,000 infected /21,960/ 27,456 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 4,400 - 5,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 2,376 - 2,970
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India : 2,024 - 2,530

80% detection rate applied : 1,619 - 2,204
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 379
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------
Feb 10th: 4,992,000 /6,240,000 infected/45,680/57,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 9,200 - 11,400

Africa+India+C&S.America serious cases, 64% of the total:
5,888 - 7,296
Remaining serious cases : 3,312 - 4,104
60% detection rate applied : 1,987 - 2,462

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 461
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------

Due to the latest announcement from Japan not having enough test kits to test all of the 3,700 people aboard the cruise ship, it is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people.
There is no point to see how many cases are being reported any longer.
There are simply not enough kits, no matter which country we are talking about.
That on top of the clear intent of all governments to hide and/or report as few cases as possible.


Feb 11th: 10,383,000 /12,979,000 infected / 94,480/ 118,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 18,900 - 23,600


Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100


Feb 13th: 46,576,000 /58,220,000 infected /407,700/ 509,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 81,600 - 101,900


Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000


Feb 15th:202,957,000 /253,697,000 infected /1,763,000/2,204,800 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 353,000 - 441,000



From February 16th - February 18th, multiple hospitals across the world, starting with India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Africa, will start to feel the pressure.Many hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will start to collapse in certain countries, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

United States and Europe hospitals will start see the pressure of patients, at the end of February-beginning of March, and will quickly be overwhelmed by mid-March.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


can we put this in GLP failed predictions list yet? lol

FAIL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78402657


The game is not over yet, but you can continue with your jokes until the moment when reality knocks on your door, stay here, there will still be news for you
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78238428
Brazil
02/13/2020 04:51 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
First dead in Japan.

[link to www.voanews.com (secure)]
miabelieves

User ID: 74765422
United States
02/13/2020 04:59 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Pardon my ignorance please, I’m trying to keep up with, and analyze, all the info, and it helps to identify sources.

OP, you created this model and you host the 001 intel thread?

Thanks!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76862206


Revbo, hosts the 001 thread
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78373461
United States
02/13/2020 06:45 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :

Thanks to Japan quarantined cruise ship, the model will NOT be modified, as I previously stated, and I would like you all to take the time to read WHY the cruise ship quarantined in Japan prompted me not to modify the current model.

1.Japan knew that a confirmed case was on the cruise ship.
2.Japan knew that everyone on the cruise ship is a suspect.

In other words, Japan was FULLY PREPARED to quarantine and test everyone on that ship.

Even in this conditions, knowing where the suspected are, knowing that they are all in the same place and knowing that the quarantine was basically instant (duh, it's a ship), it took SIXTEEN HOURS for Japan to test and announce the test results for ONLY THIRTY-ONE people !

Not only that this will create a HUGE backlog, because Japan have to test almost 3,800 people, and if they needed bloody sixteen hours for 31 people, while being fully prepared BEFORE they quarantined the ship, this proves, without a shadow of the doubt that the official confirmed cases are a small fraction of the number of infected people.

Imagine that those 3,800 people on the cruise ship in Japan are spread over 20 countries...and nobody KNOWS who they are, where they are and who they were in close contact with.

It is crystal clear that the officially confirmed cases outside China are a mere fraction of the real number of infected people.

If a fully prepared Japan, a country with proverbial efficiency, and a top-notch healthcare system, needed SIXTEEN HOURS to test 31 people, all in the SAME PLACE and already QUARANTINED...I am sorry, but my model is probably OPTIMISTIC at this point.

JAPAN UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Japan’s Ministry of Health is unable to test all passengers on the #DiamondPrincess cruise for #COVID19, because their number of test kits are limited. They need to first test high-risk passengers but also have to take care of elderlies and patients with other diseases.

If Japan, one of the richest and developed countries in the WORLD, cannot AFFORD to test 3,700 people...no wonder that the number of officially confirmed cases is THAT LOW, compared to my model numbers.

I decided, AGAIN, not to modify my model. There is no point. It is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people !


IMPORTANT UPDATE (Feb.11th) :

Recently, a number of cases officially reported as having a much longer incubation period, up to 40-42 days. Another cases reportedly having 20+ days.
As I said, this week is critical for my model, and official news on a longer period of incubation, point to a longer than 14 days incubation period.
If such cases continue to be reported, my model will need to be adjusted for a longer incubation period, and this changes the dynamic a lot, especially the contagion rate, because while many of the asymptomatic cases are contagious, they are far less contagious compared to symptomatic ones.
And this affects the infection chance, which was around 0.7-0.8 in my model.

The infection rate might get to 0.5-0.6, if the median incubation period is closer to 21 days.
This is bad news and good news. Bad, because many more cases will go undetected and keep spreading the virus, and good news because the R0 will drop under 2.0.

If the asymptomatic cases are highly contagious, the infection chance might go over 0.8...
As I said, this week is critical for my model.

I will keep add in the model the confirmed cases by authorities, but I will not modify the numbers of infected people in the model, with the note that I will add my calculated numbers proportionally for the U.S., Africa, India, South and Central America, Europe and South-East Asia.

Additionally, I will also apply a 20-21% (it is highly likely that is close to 18%, according to latest data, and I will modify the model numbers for serious cases after Feb.15th, but until that date, it will stay at 20-21%) rate for serious cases, that require hospitalization, to better predict when the healthcare systems (for each geographical area) will start to overload.

-----------------------------------------------

I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate and number of infected people outside China. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number (failed).
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists (working).
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 (failed).
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5 (failed).

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


IMPORTANT NOTE :
Due to information from CDC presser on January 31st, multiple testing is needed to confirm a case as being positive.
The multiple testing takes 36-48 hrs. until the test is confirmed as positive.
My model assumed much faster testing, with testing and confirmation being in the same day.No official information was public that testing needs 36-48 hrs at the time I posted my model.

-------------------------------------------------------
Model data from January 28th to February 5th is removed. It is old data, and no longer relevant, especially because the measures needed to slow/stop the pandemic outside China were not implemented.
-------------------------------------------------------

If by February 5th, 2020, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate and it will be impossible to contain it.

From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India, Africa and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 6-7th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones, in red, and lower-end in blue :

According to WHO and many official experts, the detection of cases is about 38%, which results in a 80% detection rate (*it is likely that the detection rate is 60% or even lower, as of February 10th) outside Africa and India.

The detection rate and testing in Central and South America SHOULD also be deducted, because the countries in Central and South America also lack testing kits, and there isn't much difference in their big cities hygiene and overcrowding compared to Indian and African cities. But they are not that bad, and have better, even if insufficient equipped healthcare systems.

The "share" of geographical areas, outside China, affected by the pandemic is as follows, considering that India and Africa are going to be more exposed compared to other areas :
1.India : 28-29% of infected / serious cases
2.Africa : 24-25% of infected / serious cases

3.Central + South America : 9% of infected / serious cases
4.U.S. + Canada : 4%-5% of infected / serious cases
5.Europe : 6-8% of infected / serious cases

6.Rest of Asia (minus China and India) : 26-27% of infected / serious cases


Important note : India and Africa will see most infected and most serious cases, but A LOT of them will go undetected, and most of the serious cases will not be able to go to a hospital, and will die at home, also undetected, hence, missing from official numbers.

I choose to keep the Central and South America as a 10% margin of error in the number of officially detected and confirmed cases outside Africa and India.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 6th :276,000 /345,000 infected, with 2,880/3,600 presenting symptoms
Serious cases that need hospitalization : 580 - 780
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 306 - 413.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India 274 - 367
80% detection rate applied : 219 - 293 serious cases should be detected and tested
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 275
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.

---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 7th :552,000 /690,000 infected, with 6,000/7,500 presenting symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 1,200 - 1,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 648 - 810.
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
552 - 690
80% detection rate applied : 441 - 552 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 327
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 8th :1,148,000 /1,435,000 infected /12,480 /15,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization :2,500 3,120Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 1,350 - 1,685
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India :
1,150 - 1,435
80% detection rate applied : 920 - 1,148 serious cases should be detected and tested.

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 354
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
---------------------------------------------------------
Feb 9th : 2,384,000 /2,980,000 infected /21,960/ 27,456 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 4,400 - 5,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 2,376 - 2,970
Remaining serious cases outside Africa and India : 2,024 - 2,530

80% detection rate applied : 1,619 - 2,204
Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 379
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------
Feb 10th: 4,992,000 /6,240,000 infected/45,680/57,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 9,200 - 11,400

Africa+India+C&S.America serious cases, 64% of the total:
5,888 - 7,296
Remaining serious cases : 3,312 - 4,104
60% detection rate applied : 1,987 - 2,462

Officially detected, tested and confirmed cases @ 22:00 GMT : 461
Keep in mind that there is a gap between detection, testing and announcement, which is about 24-36 hrs, depending on each country's capabilities.
-------------------------------------------------------

Due to the latest announcement from Japan not having enough test kits to test all of the 3,700 people aboard the cruise ship, it is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people.
There is no point to see how many cases are being reported any longer.
There are simply not enough kits, no matter which country we are talking about.
That on top of the clear intent of all governments to hide and/or report as few cases as possible.


Feb 11th: 10,383,000 /12,979,000 infected / 94,480/ 118,100 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 18,900 - 23,600


Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100


Feb 13th: 46,576,000 /58,220,000 infected /407,700/ 509,600 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 81,600 - 101,900


Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000


Feb 15th:202,957,000 /253,697,000 infected /1,763,000/2,204,800 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 353,000 - 441,000



From February 16th - February 18th, multiple hospitals across the world, starting with India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Africa, will start to feel the pressure.Many hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will start to collapse in certain countries, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

United States and Europe hospitals will start see the pressure of patients, at the end of February-beginning of March, and will quickly be overwhelmed by mid-March.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78436358
Bulgaria
02/13/2020 07:24 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
...


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith



Dapscoin.com privacy coin project founded by a female. Up 70% this year DYOR
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74832186
United States
02/13/2020 07:31 PM
Report Abusive Post
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
...


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


Move in next to me chuckle
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77526333
United States
02/13/2020 08:59 PM
Report Abusive Post
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
...


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


I would give it a 50/50 that Tax Day will happen.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77443453
United States
02/13/2020 10:23 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OP - at this point if there aren’t 800-1,000 by Feb 16th, this it only means your model is lagging in time. This virus isn’t stopping. More and more are claiming the R0 is greater than 2. No matter what the actual number it is obviously greater than 1 and I don’t think Western countries has the wherewithal to impose a Chinese Lockdown.

It is unfathomable what we are witnessing and what we will witness.
Thinking Ahead
User ID: 78353982
United States
02/13/2020 10:32 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OPIE here is another helpful potential thread what do you think? Should we go get these items?

Thread: Email I just sent to my estranged wife regarding Coronavirus. THIS COULD SAVE LIVES...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74996941
France
02/13/2020 11:18 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472576


Is 'Wish' the SA state postal service? Or maybe the decision is more recent than two days ago?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


Wish is a Chinese online store like Alibaba, they deliver through the South African Postal service.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78473572


Thanks for this info. hf
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74996941
France
02/13/2020 11:27 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to www.ccn.com (secure)]


Dow Tumbles as U.S. Warned of 100,000s of Coronavirus Cases

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


“Dow tumbles”????

Strange, because I’m looking right at it and it’s at the highest level it’s ever been in stock market history.

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


Yes, I found that strange too (a click bait?) but the potential 100,000 cases are far more interesting.
Fluffy Pancakes

User ID: 76116140
United States
02/13/2020 11:44 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OPIE here is another helpful potential thread what do you think? Should we go get these items?

Thread: Email I just sent to my estranged wife regarding Coronavirus. THIS COULD SAVE LIVES...
 Quoting: Thinking Ahead 78353982


We went and got them...Out of an abundance of caution.
Things are bad enough, there is no need to make anything up. ~Fluffy

"Never interrupt an enemy in the process of destroying himself."

Quercitin and zinc...Get it. Take it.

Visit howbad.info...If you took the shot, for sure.
TIO JUAN

User ID: 78448385
Mexico
02/14/2020 01:45 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
UNCLE JOHN
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74270969
Austria
02/14/2020 03:05 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Are you really sure that it's not everywhere already? The number of infected could be true, but just a very few need professional care. The number of people showing flu like symptoms in Austria is growing sharply since week 3 of 2020. Now the weekly number of new patients is double as much as in 2019: [link to www.virologie.meduniwien.ac.at (secure)]
So last week 2314 new people with flu like symptoms, and only 157 tested for Corona-virus. A joke, even considering the fact PR slogan that all of the tests were negative.
Sources: [link to www.virologie.meduniwien.ac.at (secure)]
[link to www.sozialministerium.at (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74270969
Austria
02/14/2020 03:09 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Sorry, 2314/100000 people, so over 200000 new possible cases in a single week.

OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Are you really sure that it's not everywhere already? The number of infected could be true, but just a very few need professional care. The number of people showing flu like symptoms in Austria is growing sharply since week 3 of 2020. Now the weekly number of new patients is double as much as in 2019: [link to www.virologie.meduniwien.ac.at (secure)]
So last week 2314 new people with flu like symptoms, and only 157 tested for Corona-virus. A joke, even considering the fact PR slogan that all of the tests were negative.
Sources: [link to www.virologie.meduniwien.ac.at (secure)]
[link to www.sozialministerium.at (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74270969
darth

User ID: 28178764
United States
02/14/2020 03:25 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
...


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


My approach is slightly different.

I am holding my positions, as liquidating will kill me when the tax man comes knocking. Besides, I'm heavy biotechs and defense - two sectors that could weather this storm with less damage than other sectors.

That said, I am sitting on a huge pile of cash, looking to move in if/when the market drops.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


Call me old fashioned. I used my surplus cash to buy a milk cow and some calves for slaughter.

Also some new/young chickens to maintain egg production.

Bought 21 yards of quality garden soil to ensure a good harvest this year.
Zovalex

User ID: 77432258
United States
02/14/2020 04:51 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


The way I see it, so what if his numbers are “off”? (he concedes they are.... it’s just a mathematical model).

So even if his numbers are grossly inaccurate, what is the worst thing that happens in your life? You actually buy preps and strategize a survival plan? How does that harm you?

Let’s say OP’s thread is just one big exercise in “fear mongering”.... if so, how are you being harmed or damaged? How are having emergency supplies hurting you? How is taking precautions to protect and strengthen your immune system harming you? How is developing a plan to network with like-minded people causing you to be damaged?

I simply see NO downside in taking protective actions based on OP’s thread. Even if he’s completely wrong and absolutely full of shit, I fail to see how I’m being injured in any way at all. To the contrary, I’ve increased my emergency preps, bought 2 more firearms, protected my investments against a market slide, learned a lot more about SARS and CV than I ever knew, learned about the different methods to limit ACE2 access to the virus, learned about Cytokines, learned about additional immune system nutriceuticals, and now I’m a more disciplined and careful germiphobe than I was previously.

How is ANY of that harming me?

By listening to the man, we all have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

So what difference does it make if his numbers are accurate, inaccurate, or just plain lies?
.

Last Edited by Zovalex on 02/14/2020 05:10 AM
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“You have been programmed to resist the very person that is here to set you free, from the prison of your Mind... You are not free... everything you are has been manufactured by Minds that have not your best interest. You are imprisoned by beliefs and not reality. Religions are mental programs to imprison your Mind.”

-SOL
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78436358
Bulgaria
02/14/2020 05:25 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
From another thread. Seems legit.




Chinese insiders (from 4plebs from halfchan)...

[link to i.4pcdn.org (secure)]

Estimate from this must be: 250k - 500k dead.

Between 3 and 6 million infected.

That sounds a lot more believable based on the actions of the Chinese government.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78476647
Slovakia
02/14/2020 05:33 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Over 1,700 Chinese medics infected with coronavirus
[link to tass.com (secure)]
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
United Kingdom
02/14/2020 07:06 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OP - at this point if there aren’t 800-1,000 by Feb 16th, this it only means your model is lagging in time. This virus isn’t stopping. More and more are claiming the R0 is greater than 2. No matter what the actual number it is obviously greater than 1 and I don’t think Western countries has the wherewithal to impose a Chinese Lockdown.

It is unfathomable what we are witnessing and what we will witness.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77443453


I already said that my model is going to be off, but atm, the best case scenario is 6 day off, and the worst is 2 day off.


Once this week is over, the model will be adjusted and updated, and I will most likely add a new column in my model, based on official confirmed cases and detection chance of 10%-15% (as many experts agree on), to see how much the difference is, and when, on the timeline, the numbers in my model come withing range of the new column numbers.


But there are still 2 and a half days to go before I do it.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
United Kingdom
02/14/2020 07:15 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/14/2020 07:27 AM
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

User ID: 75814320
United States
02/14/2020 10:40 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to www.ccn.com (secure)]


Dow Tumbles as U.S. Warned of 100,000s of Coronavirus Cases

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


“Dow tumbles”????

Strange, because I’m looking right at it and it’s at the highest level it’s ever been in stock market history.

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


That's just because traders aren't watching AIS data. Let's a play a game. It's called find the Cosco vessels in US ports and harbors. I've found a couple but they haven't moved for a few days.

[link to shiptracker.live (secure)]
Come on and take a free ride.
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

User ID: 75814320
United States
02/14/2020 10:49 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What I think is interesting that some of the earlier models that I found were all pretty spot-on in the beginning. And right around the 1st & 2nd, they stopped being accurate.

Some of it I'm sure is due to inaccurate numbers being reported by world governments. So the question is if they worked earlier and not now, why? The model didn't get the virus and stop working. The laws of physics, math, and science didn't suddenly change a couple of weeks back. Math doesn't give a fuck about your race or political party, but for some reason, the R0 seems to be different everywhere you look.
Come on and take a free ride.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78420351
United States
02/14/2020 11:00 AM
Report Abusive Post
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


The way I see it, so what if his numbers are “off”? (he concedes they are.... it’s just a mathematical model).

So even if his numbers are grossly inaccurate, what is the worst thing that happens in your life? You actually buy preps and strategize a survival plan? How does that harm you?

Let’s say OP’s thread is just one big exercise in “fear mongering”.... if so, how are you being harmed or damaged? How are having emergency supplies hurting you? How is taking precautions to protect and strengthen your immune system harming you? How is developing a plan to network with like-minded people causing you to be damaged?

I simply see NO downside in taking protective actions based on OP’s thread. Even if he’s completely wrong and absolutely full of shit, I fail to see how I’m being injured in any way at all. To the contrary, I’ve increased my emergency preps, bought 2 more firearms, protected my investments against a market slide, learned a lot more about SARS and CV than I ever knew, learned about the different methods to limit ACE2 access to the virus, learned about Cytokines, learned about additional immune system nutriceuticals, and now I’m a more disciplined and careful germiphobe than I was previously.

How is ANY of that harming me?

By listening to the man, we all have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

So what difference does it make if his numbers are accurate, inaccurate, or just plain lies?
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


^^^This x1000
Well said.
I have done very similar.
mr. jingles

User ID: 74041598
United States
02/14/2020 11:02 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What I think is interesting that some of the earlier models that I found were all pretty spot-on in the beginning. And right around the 1st & 2nd, they stopped being accurate.

Some of it I'm sure is due to inaccurate numbers being reported by world governments. So the question is if they worked earlier and not now, why? The model didn't get the virus and stop working. The laws of physics, math, and science didn't suddenly change a couple of weeks back. Math doesn't give a fuck about your race or political party, but for some reason, the R0 seems to be different everywhere you look.
 Quoting: DeplorableDoomsdayGuy®


If governments are lying about cases and numbers, what do you think would be the reason its off?

Hint: its in the question i just gave
mr. jingles
IdeaMan1624

User ID: 77578604
United States
02/14/2020 01:31 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Are We the “Fixers” - This is a pre-economy post (my economy post will be coming out Sunday night only in this thread). But I wanted to plant this seed.

There is still much to learn in the days/weeks/months ahead about this virus and how it will impact each of us and where we live. We have a pretty good view of the horrible impact it has already taken in only 60 days for the Chinese people. As other countries situations begin to unfold we will learn more and more on the possible impact the virus should effect us and our locations. I believe OPs model is good and helped all of us in this thread. And I am looking forward to his updated version soon as I believe it will be the most accurate and best knowledge for us to handle the next phase of this virus. I also believe the “real” cycle of this virus is closer to 60 days not 14-21. My rational for this 60 day thinking is factoring in certain other elements like no real legit test, no real reporting, etc. Remember China learned of this virus in mid Dec, acknowledged its existence in mid January and still is not reporting real numbers. I think Japan and Singapore reporting will be different. I think here in the USA we are just at the very beginning. Will we see people drop in the street like in China? People suffer from multiple organ failures like in China? Set up 1000 bed triage centers like in China? Or will we or other countries just have a bad cold. Time will tell.

But one thing is for ABSOLUTE certain……..the global economy and to a higher degree certain local economies will be devastated due to China’s complete halt of their economy and global production. Ok back to the “Fixer”. Please follow me with this seed/idea. There was a great TV commercial during the SuperBowl (American football game) this year. I really really liked it. It was a Budweiser beer commercial. Here is a link [link to youtu.be (secure)] . Throw out the product and just watch the 60 second commercial. Someone is going to have to FIX this global economy and virus problem. Just like the Great Generation saved the world in WWII. Are we going to be The Fixers to save the world in this global catastrophe? Personally I would kind of like to be known as “I was one of the Fixers”. This obviously would include anyone in the world that contributes in some way. But someone must take the lead. Can Trump do this? How about you? Watch that TV commercial again [link to youtu.be (secure)] and always remember, everything begins with an idea.

Last Edited by IdeaMan1624 on 02/14/2020 09:01 PM
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mr. jingles

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02/14/2020 02:17 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Hey guys im copying and pasting my experience i had today for OP


San diego VA

I went to get a simple pain procedure done and its on the 5th floor. However when the elevator opened there was a combination of 40 nurses and doctors waiting to go down the elevators. They looked a little confused why i was on this floor and heading to the waiting/ check in area. As i walked to (what was) my waiting area i quickly realized i was in the wrong place (they had moved my area) and i started reading placards. INFECTIOUS DISEASE.

Just using my common sense here..... but they are prepping guys.

Last Edited by mr. jingles on 02/14/2020 02:17 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :

Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000



Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.

I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.


Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).


I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


ty so much, this is critical info





GLP